1.
Likes to Loves
Oct 5, 2011
likes
Michael Wu, PhD
Principal Scientist of Analytics
Lithium Technologies
to loves
@mich8elwu
World Tour 2011
London We’re Tweeting! Join
the conversation at #L2LTour

2.
social is NOT new
▪ Humans have been social since they were caveman
▪ Cyber-anthropology of social media:
shift the focus from technology à relationship
▪ From the relational perspective, there are only 2 major types
of social media
• social network
• community
▪ Social in the pre-digital era
#L2LTour
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3.
how do social networks form?
A story of how Bob’s social Henley-on-Thames
network was built = community
weak ties
Bob strong ties
old members
new / casual
members
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4.
how do social networks form?
Henley-on-Thames
college = community
Social networks form
naturally within
communities as people
establishes relationships
Social network
maintains relationships
as people move
work between communities
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5.
what do real social network data look like?
#L2LTour
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6.
communities vs. social networks (on/offline)
▪ Social Network ▪ Community
• Held together by pre-existing • Held together by some common
interpersonal relationships interests of a large group of
between individuals people
• You know everyone in your • Most people, especially new
network (ego-network), people members, do not know majority of
who are connected to you directly the members in the community
• Each person has only one social • Any one person may be part of
network, despite there are many many communities at any given
social network platforms time
• Structure: Network • Structure: Hierarchical,
overlapping & nested
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7.
communities vs. social networks (on/offline)
▪ Social Networks ▪ Community
• Facebook, Linkedin, etc. • Flickr, Yelp, Wikipedia, Youtube,
Digg, etc.
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8.
connection vs. interaction (engagement)
▪ Social networks connects people
• It determines who connects to whom
• But it doesn’t determine who interacts with whom
▪ A connection is required but not sufficient to guarantee
interaction
▪ Connection is easy to maintain, interaction is much harder
• Connection: only takes 1 action, no subsequent actions are required:
Once connected, you’ll always be a connection
• Interaction: requires persistent actions over time
▪ A Facebook “Like” = a connection
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9.
realizing the value of your connections
▪ The potential value of a connection is huge
• That is why Facebook received ~$40 billion valuation
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10.
realizing the value of your connections
▪ Potential value through influence
• Connection to other fans, customers, or consumers
à can potentially influence them through WOM
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11.
what is influence?
▪ Definition for businesses:
• The ability to cause a change in thought (sentiment, opinion, etc.) OR
behavior (purchase, referral, etc.) through non-coercive and transparent
means where the targets voluntarily want the changes even with no monetary
compensation
▪ It matters how you produce the change
• No carrot: no money (doesn’t mean no reward)
• No stick: no force/coercion (doesn’t mean no punishment)
• No annoyance: no spam/frustration, target has to want it
• No trick: no deception/hidden agenda
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12.
what does influence means to your business?
engage/ el
empower funn dY
ha se bran
mass public
purc
consumers
r
you
awareness
interest
desire
action
brand X
bran
dZ
potential (+) influence = promoters potential (−) influence = detractors
your brand competitors’ brand
your superfans advocates your unaware competitors’ advocates
(product experts) (evangelists) customers consumers customers (your brand detractors)
#L2LTour
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13.
a model for influence
influencer
Domain Credibility: The influencer's expertise in a specific
domain of knowledge.
High Bandwidth: The influencer's ability to transmit his expert
knowledge through a social media channel.
Content Relevance: How closely the target's information
needs coincide with the influencer's expertise.
Timing: The ability of the influencer to deliver his expert
knowledge to the target at the time when the target needed it.
Channel Alignment: The amount of channel overlap between
the target and the influencer.
Target Confidence: How much the target trusts the influencer
target: with respect to his information needs
influencee
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14.
the importance of relevance and timing
Friendship
Relevant relationship
FanGirl
WizKid
w/in 1 month
1 month ago
3 month ago
6 month ago
PopGuy
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15.
Summary of Lithium-only data
Seeding Program
Random 10.3%
Competing
brands
Influencer 17.4%
Gain via acceleration
Gain via acquisition
Brand
Random 86.8% monopoly
Influencer 113%
0 20 40 80 100 120
▪ Result 1: 2 mechanisms combine to create WOM values
Acquisition of customers
Acceleration of adoption
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16.
Summary of Lithium-only data
Seeding Program
Random 10.3%
Competing
brands
Influencer 17.4%
Gain via acceleration
Gain via acquisition
Brand
Random 86.8% monopoly
Influencer 113%
0 20 40 80 100 120
▪ Result 2: Influencer seeding increases gain
49.4%
#L2LTour
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17.
Summary of Lithium-only data
Seeding Program
Random 10.3%
Competing
brands
Influencer 17.4%
Gain via acceleration
Gain via acquisition
Brand
Random 86.8% monopoly
Influencer 113%
0 20 40 80 100 120
▪ Result 3: First mover advantage is huge
7.5x
#L2LTour
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18.
what does influence means to your business?
engage/ el
empower funn dY
ha se bran
mass public
purc
consumers
r
you
awareness
interest
desire
action
brand X
bran
dZ
potential (+) influence = promoters potential (−) influence = detractors
your brand competitors’ brand
your superfans advocates your unaware competitors’ advocates
(product experts) (evangelists) customers consumers customers (your brand detractors)
#L2LTour
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19.
realizing the value of your connections
▪ Potential value through influence
• Connection to other fans, customers, or consumers
à can potentially influence them through WOM
à can potentially gain value through customer acquisition & accelerated
adoption
▪ Potential value through loyalty
• Connection to brands
à can potentially build stronger/deeper customer-brand relationship
#L2LTour
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20.
relationship development & maintenance
disconnected Easy!
do
something 1. creating All it takes is
bad a weak tie an “hello”
weak tie
do 2. building
nothing tie strength
strong tie 3. maintaining
relationship
#L2LTour
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21.
realizing the value of your connections
▪ Potential value through influence
• Connection to other fans, customers, or consumers
à can potentially influence them through WOM
à can potentially gain value through customer acquisition & accelerated
adoption
• But w/o interaction, there is no way to spread WOM
▪ Potential value through loyalty
• Connection to brands
à can potentially build stronger/deeper customer-brand relationship
à can potentially gain value through persistent consumption of product &
service
• But w/o interaction, there is no way to build any relationship
#L2LTour
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22.
realizing the value of your connections
▪ The latent value of a connection (a fan) is
the potential to interact
• When people actually interact, they can realize this
value
▪ If fans (connections to brands) don’t
interact, they cannot realize their latent
value (e.g. WOM influence, loyalty, etc.)
▪ Nevertheless connections do have value,
interactions simply create greater value
• “Likes” are good, but it is NOT good enough
#L2LTour
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23.
how can we drive actions and interactions?
▪ Gamification:
• The use of game attributes to drive game-like player behavior in a non-game
context with predictability
#L2LTour
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24.
how can we drive actions and interactions?
▪ Gamification:
• The use of game attributes to drive game-like player behavior in a non-game
context with predictability
• game attributes
• gamemechanics, game dynamics, game design principles, gaming psychology, player
journey, narratives, etc.
#L2LTour
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25.
how can we drive actions and interactions?
▪ Gamification:
• The use of game attributes to drive game-like player behavior in a non-game
context with predictability
• game attributes
• gamemechanics, game dynamics, game design principles, gaming psychology, player
journey, narratives, etc.
• game-like player behavior
• engagement, interaction, competition, collaboration, awareness, learning, obsession,
and/or any other observed player behavior during game play
#L2LTour
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26.
how can we drive actions and interactions?
▪ Gamification:
• The use of game attributes to drive game-like player behavior in a non-game
context with predictability
• game attributes
• gamemechanics, game dynamics, game design principles, gaming psychology, player
journey, narratives, etc.
• game-like player behavior
• engagement, interaction, competition, collaboration, awareness, learning, obsession,
and/or any other observed player behavior during game play
• non-game context
• work,
education, health & fitness, sale & marketing, community participation, civic
engagement, volunteerism, goodwill, etc. (anything but a game)
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27.
what’s the magic behind gamification?
Communal Response Collection Countdown Discovery Variable Ratio
Cross Situational
Collaboration Fun Once, Delayed Lottery Reward Schedule
Reputation Fun Always Leader-boards
Status Mechanics Free Lunch Serendipity Points
Fixed Ratio
Moral Hazard SocialShell Game Communal
Reward Schedule
Modifiers of Game PlayCohesion Interval Discovery Loyalty
Rank Leader-boards Avoidance Reinforcement
Reinforcer
Reward Schedules Urgent Appointment Schedules Virtual Items
Privacy Envy Optimism Dynamic Chain SchedulesSet Completion
Companion
Epic MeaningMicro Leader-boards
Loss Aversion Cascading Rolling Social Fabric of Games Gaming
ContingencyViral Game Mechanics
Free Lunch Information Physical Level Up Virality
Pride Achievement Theory Goods Behavioral Contrast Endless
Infinite Gameplay Combos Games
Disincentives Ownership Variable Interval
Reward Schedules Progression Dynamic
Fixed Interval Behavioral Momentum Blissful Ratio Reward
Real-time
Reward Schedules Extinction Productivity Schedules
Quest Mechanics #L2LTour
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28.
behavior model
▪ Fogg Behavior Model (FBM):
• 3 Factors underlying human behavior
• Temporal convergence of 3 factors
MotivationAction Ability Trigger
wants can told to
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29.
behavior model
▪ Fogg Behavior Model (FBM): Trigger
• 3 Factors underlying human behavior
• Temporal convergence of 3 factors
Motivation
Action activation
threshold
▪ Magic formula of gamification:
• Place the proper triggers in the behavioral
trajectory of motivated player, at the moment
when he feel the greatest excess in ability Ability
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30.
influence relationship
psychology
social network
social media community
gamification
sociology
interaction analytics
motivation
anthropology
connection
loyalty
behavior model
#L2LTour
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31.
action &
connection interaction tangible ROI
Likes
gamification influence
loyalty …
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32.
Loves
Likes
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