Presentation for GFF. February 2012.

1. Michell Zappa
@envisioningtech
mz@envisioningtech.com
envisioningtech.com
Over the last day we have looked at dozens of intriguing emerging technologies and have also started thinking about what they mean
for the future of security.
I’m here today to talk a little bit about my approach for looking at these technologies by taking a step back, looking at how they relate,
and to envision scenarios we might expect based on current trends.

2. envisioning
technology
I’ve published a visualization called “Envisioning Technology”.

3. AI INTERNET INTERFACES SENSORS UBICOMP ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS ENERGY SPACE GEOTECH
INTERNET INTERFACES SENSORS UBICOMP ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS ENERGY SPACE GEOTECH
Cloud Multi Depth Tablets Personal Additive
computing touch imaging gene sequencing manufacturing
Inductive
chargers
Cyber- Gesture Near-field
warfare recognition communication
Volumetric Self-healing
(3D) screens Appliance materials
robots Tidal turbines
Speech Pervasive
recognition video
4G capture
Flexible screens Fuel cells
Organ Commercial
printing spaceflight
Boards Graphene
Mesh
networking Augmented Biometric
reality Smart
sensors toys
Bio-enhanced
fuels
The key idea is to look at all sorts of emerging technologies.
I started by organizing my research across eleven areas, “from bits to atoms”s, to speak.

4. Interplanetary Reprogrammable Domestic
internet chips robots
2012
Optogenetics
2030
Skin-embedded
2020
screens Swarm
robotics
Immersive
virtual reality
Remote
presence
Retinal
screens
2030 Neuro-
informatics
Embodied
avatars
Exocortex
Machine-
augmented
cognition
2040
Machine augmented
cognition
Utility
fog
2040
The next step is spreading out the observations on a timeline. We cover speculations for approximately the next 30 years.

5. ARTIFICIAL INTERNET INTERFACES SENSORS UBICOMP ROBOTICS
INTELLIGENCE
High-frequency Cloud Multi Depth Tablets
trading computing touch imaging
Cyber- Gesture Near-field
warfare recognition communication
Software
agents Volumetric
(3D) screens Appliance
robots
Speech Pervasive
recognition video
4G capture
Flexible screens
Natural language
interpretation Boards
Mesh
networking Augmented Biometric
reality Smart
sensors toys

6. Robotic Synthetic
surgery blood
Personal
fabricators
Self-driving Smart drugs Sub-orbital
vehicles Multi-segmented spaceflight
smart grids
Meta- Space
materials tourism
Powered Photvoltaic
exoskeleton glass
Personalized
medicine
Optical
invisibility cloaks Piezo- Weather
electricity engineering
In-vitro
meat
Unmanned
aerial

7. Optogenetics
Gene therapy
Skin-embedded Mole
screens Swarm asse
robotics
Immersive
virtual reality
Hybrid
assisted limbs
e
Retinal
screens
Nan
Artificial
retinas
Neuro-
informatics

8. ARTIFICIAL INTERNET INTERFACES SENSORS UBICOMP ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS ENERGY SPACE GEOTECH
INTELLIGENCE QUANTITATIVE FORECASTS
Global online population: ± 2 billion
High-frequency Cloud Multi Depth Tablets Personal Additive
2012 trading computing touch imaging gene sequencing manufacturing 2012 Connected devices: ±10 billion
2013 Inductive 2013
chargers
Cyber- Gesture Near-field
2014 warfare recognition communication 2014
Software
agents Volumetric Self-healing
(3D) screens Appliance materials
robots Tidal turbines Global online population: ± 2.5 billion
2015 2015 Connected devices: ±15 billion
Speech Pervasive Sources:
recognition video Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04
4G capture InternetWorldStats – http://bit.ly/AKbO5
Flexible screens Fuel cells
Organ Commercial
printing spaceflight
2016 2016
Natural language
interpretation Boards Graphene
Mesh
networking Augmented Biometric
reality Smart
sensors toys
2017 2017
Bio-enhanced
fuels
Virtual 4K Robotic Synthetic
currencies surgery blood
Smart
power meters
2018
Personal
fabricators
Biomarkers Pico-
Machine Haptics projectors Self-driving Sub-orbital
translation vehicles Smart drugs Multi-segmented
smart grids spaceflight
2019 2019
Global online population: 4-5 billion
Connected devices: 30-50 billion
Machine Meta- Space
5G vision tourism $150 Hard disk: ±200 Tb
materials
Photvoltaic Standard RAM: ±750Gb
Powered glass
Procedural exoskeleton Sources:
storytelling Eyewear-embedded Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04
screens Ericsson – http://bit.ly/avvVok
Alan Conroy – http://bit.ly/pofHp5
2020 2020 FutureTimeline – http://bit.ly/qz4ben
Personalized
medicine
Holography
Optical
invisibility cloaks Piezo- Weather
Context-aware electricity
computing engineering
In-vitro
meat
Reputation Unmanned
economy aerial
Computational vehicles
photography
Synthetic Petabyte storage standard
Fabric-embedded biology Carbon
screens nanotubes Source: http://bit.ly/r9BYQc
VR-only Telepresence
lifeforms $ 1.000 computer reaches the
capacity of the human brain
(± 1015 calculations per second)
Stem-cell Vertical Source: http://bit.ly/6MoQJc
treatments farming
World population 8 billion
Interplanetary Reprogrammable Domestic Biomaterials Biomechanical Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS
internet chips robots harvesting
BRICs GDP overtakes the G7
Source: Goldman Sachs – http://bit.ly/nc9Wqj
Sea-
Nano- steading
generators
Optogenetics
Gene therapy
Artificial
2030 photosynthesis 2030
Skin-embedded Molecular Terabit internet speed standard
screens Swarm assembler Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb
robotics
Immersive
virtual reality
Desalination
Hybrid Lunar
assisted limbs Enernet outpost
Remote
presence
Retinal
screens
Exabyte storage standard
Nanowires
Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb
Artificial Mars Carbon
retinas mission sequestration
Neuro- Thorium
informatics reactor
Embodied
avatars
Nanomedicine Climate
Exocortex engineering
Programmable Space
matter elevator
Machine-
augmented
cognition
Anti- Traveling
Machine augmented aging
cognition drugs wave reactor
Utility
fog
Space-based Solar Arcologies
solar power sail
World population reaches 9 billion
Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS
2040 2040
You can see it as an “interdisciplinary roadmap for the future.”

9. ARTIFICIAL INTERNET INTERFACES SENSORS UBICOMP ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS ENERGY SPACE GEOTECH
INTELLIGENCE QUANTITATIVE FORECASTS
Global online population: ± 2 billion
High-frequency Cloud Multi Depth Tablets Personal Additive
2012 trading computing touch imaging gene sequencing manufacturing 2012 Connected devices: ±10 billion
2013 Inductive 2013
chargers
Cyber- Gesture Near-field
2014 warfare recognition communication 2014
Software
agents Volumetric Self-healing
(3D) screens Appliance materials
robots Tidal turbines Global online population: ± 2.5 billion
2015 2015 Connected devices: ±15 billion
Speech Pervasive Sources:
recognition video Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04
4G capture InternetWorldStats – http://bit.ly/AKbO5
Flexible screens Fuel cells
Organ Commercial
printing spaceflight
2016 2016
Natural language
interpretation Boards Graphene
Mesh
networking Augmented Biometric
reality Smart
sensors toys
2017 2017
Bio-enhanced
fuels
Virtual 4K Robotic Synthetic
currencies surgery blood
Smart
power meters
2018
Personal
fabricators
Biomarkers Pico-
Machine Haptics projectors Self-driving Sub-orbital
translation vehicles Smart drugs Multi-segmented
smart grids spaceflight
2019 2019
Global online population: 4-5 billion
Connected devices: 30-50 billion
Machine Meta- Space
5G vision tourism $150 Hard disk: ±200 Tb
materials
Photvoltaic Standard RAM: ±750Gb
Powered glass
Procedural exoskeleton Sources:
storytelling Eyewear-embedded Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04
screens Ericsson – http://bit.ly/avvVok
Alan Conroy – http://bit.ly/pofHp5
2020 2020 FutureTimeline – http://bit.ly/qz4ben
Personalized
medicine
Holography
Optical
invisibility cloaks Piezo- Weather
Context-aware electricity
computing engineering
In-vitro
meat
Reputation Unmanned
economy aerial
Computational vehicles
photography
Synthetic Petabyte storage standard
Fabric-embedded biology Carbon
screens nanotubes Source: http://bit.ly/r9BYQc
VR-only Telepresence
lifeforms $ 1.000 computer reaches the
capacity of the human brain
(± 1015 calculations per second)
Stem-cell Vertical Source: http://bit.ly/6MoQJc
treatments farming
World population 8 billion
Interplanetary Reprogrammable Domestic Biomaterials Biomechanical Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS
internet chips robots harvesting
BRICs GDP overtakes the G7
Source: Goldman Sachs – http://bit.ly/nc9Wqj
Sea-
Nano- steading
generators
Optogenetics
Gene therapy
Artificial
2030 photosynthesis 2030
Skin-embedded Molecular Terabit internet speed standard
screens Swarm assembler Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb
robotics
Immersive
virtual reality
Desalination
Hybrid Lunar
assisted limbs Enernet outpost
Remote
presence
Retinal
screens
Exabyte storage standard
Nanowires
Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb
Artificial Mars Carbon
retinas mission sequestration
Neuro- Thorium
informatics reactor
Embodied
avatars
Nanomedicine Climate
Exocortex engineering
Programmable Space
matter elevator
Machine-
augmented
cognition
Anti- Traveling
Machine augmented aging
cognition drugs wave reactor
Utility
fog
Space-based Solar Arcologies
solar power sail
World population reaches 9 billion
Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS
2040 2040
But I think it’s true worth is displayed when you start connecting the dots between the individual technologies and start thinking
about the critical paths between them.

10. GPS GPS
GPS
GPS
One way of seeing intersections between different technologies is from looking backwards in time. Take an existing product or service
and flesh out the individual components that were necessary for it to be invented.
What makes YouTube possible? The combination of: ubiquitous cameras, cheap storage, fast processing, a proliferation of internet
users and fast internet access.

11. GPS
GPS
Same thing for a service like 23andMe. It was only possible after the proliferation of fast processing, automatic sequencing machines,
optical sensors and a degree of social network analysis.

12. Scenario #1:
Surveillance
Today I’ll go over three brief sci-fi scenarios based on extrapolating existing trends.

13. A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors: Experiments performed with a team of nano quadrotors at the GRASP Lab, University of Pennsylvania
http:/
/www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQIMGV5vtd4

14. The rise in drone journalism.

15. Moscow protests
http:/
/dronejournalism.tumblr.com/post/14136093865/more-on-the-moscow-protest-photos

16. http:/
/www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=9vOor1xmVDs

17. The Xbox Kinect - a brilliant example of depth imaging (or computer vision) popularizing as a toy.

18. http:/
/www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QrnwoO1-8A
This is how the Kinect sees the world.

19. Drone cameras
Swarm robotics
Computer vision
So where do you end up in a future where these three technologies are prominent?

20. Imagine a future with a swarm of thumbnail-sized flying nanocopters with 3D cameras on them.

21. “IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON”
Imagine a cloud of cameras. Unstoppable, able to see everything. Drop it into a hostage situation or use it for spying. The possibilities
and risks are endless.

22. “IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON”

23. “IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON”
And if you doubt the possibility, check the AR.Drone Parrot, a $300 helicopter toy with a camera which is controlled by an iPhone app.

24. Scenario #2:
Urban intelligence

25. Outboard brain: http:/
/www.wired.com/techbiz/people/magazine/15-10/st_thompson
We are outsourcing as much information as possible from our brains into our portable devices. Phone numbers, addresses, directions,
etc.

26. And we are outsourcing the decision-making process to our devices.
Here is a WiFi-enabled umbrella which flashes if it’s going to rain. No need to look up the weather.

27. We’re moving toward an internet of things, where all infrastructure is interdependent and connected.
Sometimes called the “smart city”.

28. The surge of personal agents.

29. Coupled with context-aware computers which know where we are.

30. Smart infrastructure
Personal agents
Contextual computing

31. “DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO”
I call this trend “tell me what to do”. A scenario where the computer, or the network, is smart enough to guide you through your day.
Tell you which road to take based on traffic patterns, notify you when a friend is nearby, coordinate your calendar, etc.
http:/
/www.flickr.com/photos/cowboyuk80/3742085978/sizes/o/in/photostream/

32. “DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO”
http:/
/www.flickr.com/photos/cowboyuk80/3742085978/sizes/o/in/photostream/

33. Scenario #3:
Self-organization

34. Mobile phones generally work by connecting wirelessly to microcells. It’s a distributed but centralized network.

35. We are seeing the rise of mesh networks, or mobile ad-hoc networks. Instead of being centralized around antennas, each node
becomes a relay. This means mobile phones with this technology can communicate without any existing infrastructure in place.

36. “In essence, Mobile Hotspots seeks to
provide cell-tower-class performance
without the infrastructure.”
And DARPA is already working on this technology.
http:/
/www.darpa.mil/NewsEvents/Releases/2012/02/10.aspx

37. Likewise, we usually think of energy as a centralized process.

38. But with the rise of photovoltaic capacity in solar cells, we’re quickly reaching the point where that’s no longer necessary.

39. Look at the rising lines. Photovoltaic efficiency rises yearly.

40. http:/
/www.technologyreview.com/energy/39544/

41. $799
.99
And finally, smartphones are generally seen as expensive.

42. $
But the trend is for the price of all electronics to drop quickly over time.

43. Mesh networking
Photovoltaics
Affordable smartphones

44. “AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS”
The takeaway? Imagine a cheap smartphone that works entirely off the grid. Communicates with anyone on the network, and is
impossible to censor. Now imagine airdropping those into a country where communications have been shut down by the
government.

45. “AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS”
Given the right political conditions and level of tension, you could potentially set off a revolution like what we saw around the middle
east in 2011.

46. “AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS”
Without naming names, I’m sure you can all think of a couple of regions where these airdrops could come in handy.

47. “IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON”
“DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO”
“AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS”
Again, this is just a handful of scenarios based on less than a dozen actual technologies.

48. The other characteristic about technology is how it’s always progressing.
A century ago, humanity had never even taken flight. Now, we take it for granted. (1903)

49. Same with medical imaging. (1895)

50. Connect the dots. See where technologies intersect.

51. Thank you.
@envisioningtech
mz@envisioningtech.com
envisioningtech.com