Comparison of the U.S. government's 1990 Predictions for 2015 and today's realities.

1. 1
The Government's 1990 Predictions of
the Year 2015
What Did They Get Right?
Space Travel And a $4.2 trillion miscalculation
9/15/2015

2. Introduction
29/15/2015
Back in 1990 most of us were just making our way in life… How did the world look
then? And how what did the experts think life would be like in 2015?
In 1991The Library of Congress published a report from recent (1990) research titled
DOMESTIC TRENDS TO THE YEAR 2015: FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES. The
original report can be found at: http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-
files/domestic_trends.pdf
The report provided forecasts and predictions in areas including: Demography, The Economy, Resources, Education,
Society, Technology, Military Science and Geopolitics and Threats .
Comparing their forecasts with our world today offers very interesting results. In some areas (especially where the
fairly simple math is needed, like Median Age), the authors were right on. In other areas (such as the rise of
economies like India, or the downfall of the USSR), they were way off.
The following offers insights as to the degree to which the world changes within over 25 years, the limitations of
some predictions, and how, in other ways, the future is very predictable, and familiar.
Mike Bishop, JD
801-244-8622
mike@criticalmissionconsulting.com
Twitter: @futurebash
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikebishops

3. 1990 Prediction for 2015
3
249,632,000
303,400,000
320,500,000 325,656,000
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Forecast
(Aggressive)
2015 Actual
U.S. Population
9/15/2015
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/

4. 1990 Prediction for 2015
Urban Decay
…Continued decay of the old urban
centers and the isolation of minority
groups living in them, trends already
well established today.
49/15/2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf

5. 1990 Prediction for 2015
59/15/2015
1.90%
2.20%
2.40%
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual*
U.S. GDP Growth
Sources: http://www.statista.com/statistics/188165/annual-gdp-growth-of-the-united-
states-since-1990/ http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf

6. 1990 Prediction for 2015
Lower Standard Of Living
The growing interconnectedness of the world will be the
great change driver in the next decades.
Ordinary Americans may have to accept a lower standard of
living as other countries take more of the world's wealth.
69/15/2015
U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the
Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-
files/domestic_trends.pdf

7. Standard Of Living Changes
79/15/2015
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_of_living_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Gdp_versu
s_household_income.pn

8. 1990 Prediction for 2015
89/15/2015
Sources: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/ http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf
-files/domestic_trends.pdf https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States
71.8%
62.8% 63.7%
11.7%
13.8% 12.2%
2.9% 4.4% 4.7%
9.0%
14.7% 16.4%
1990
Actual
2015
Forecast
2015
Forecast
1990
Actual
2015
Forecast
2015
Actual
1990
Actual
2015
Forecast
2015
Forecast
1990
Actual
2015
Forecast
2015
Actual
White Black Asian Hispanic
U.S. Ethnicity

9. 1990 Prediction for 2015
99/15/2015
Sources: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2010/022.pdf; http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf
-files/domestic_trends.pdf http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=195
71.80
74.60
76.20
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Actual
U.S. Life Expectancy Male

10. 1990 Prediction for 2015
109/15/2015
Sources: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2010/022.pdf; http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf
-files/domestic_trends.pdf http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=195
78.80
81.50
81.29
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Actual
U.S. Life Expectancy Female

11. 1990 Prediction for 2015
119/15/2015
Sources:
http://www.militaryonesource.mil/12038/MOS/Reports/2012_Demographics_Report.pdf
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
33
37.6 37.6
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual
Median Age in the U.S.

12. 1990 Prediction for 2015
129/15/2015
Sources:
http://www.militaryonesource.mil/12038/MOS/Reports/2012_Demographics_Report.pdf
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
32.90%
45.50%
30.00%
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Actual
Minorities in U.S. Military in 2015

13. 1990 2015 Prediction
Multi-Polar Political World
The largely bi-polar world that existed after
World War II will have given way to a multi-
polar world with a variety of complex
political, economic, and strategic
relationships.
139/15/2015
U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the
Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-
files/domestic_trends.pdf

14. 1990 Prediction for 2015
149/15/2015
Sources: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.MKTP.PP.CD
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
$1,006,000,000,000 $1,032,000,000,000
$6,700,000,000,000
$2,540,000,000,000
1990 India 1990 France 2015 India 2015 France
1990 Projection: France and India
Will Have the Same GNP in 2015

15. 1990 Prediction for 2015
159/15/2015
Sources: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.MKTP.PP.CD
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
$942,100,000,000 $942,800,000,000
$2,956,000,000,000
$2,446,000,000,000
1990 Brazil 1990 UK 2015 Brazil 2015 UK
1990 Projection: Brazil and the UK
Will Have the Same GNP in 2015

16. 1990 Prediction for 2015
USSR
The Soviet Union will occupy a position of
prime importance in U.S. strategic planning
even if that country is weakened by internal
political problems and economic crises.
169/15/2015
U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf

17. 1990 Prediction for 2015
Asia
The Pacific area will grow in importance
for United States security interests.
Japan will remain the dominant
economic power
179/15/2015 U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf

18. 1990 Prediction for 2015
189/15/2015
Sources: http://www.census.gov/newsroom/facts-for-features/2015/cb15-ff01.html
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
22,400,000
41,900,000
45,000,000
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual
U.S. Black Population

19. 1990 Prediction for 2015
199/15/2015
Sources: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
22,400,000
44,000,000
47,948,000
55,400,000
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Forecast
(Aggressive)
Actual
U.S. Hispanic Population

20. 1990 Prediction for 2015
209/15/2015
Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Asian_Americans
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
6,908,000
13,000,000
19,437,000
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Actual
U.S. Asian Population

21. 1990 Prediction for 2015
219/15/2015
Sources: https://aidsinfo.nih.gov/education-materials/fact-sheets/24/71/preventing-mother-to-
child-transmission-of-hiv-after-birth
1,500 1,500
200
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual
Babies Born with HIV
(Annually)

22. 1990 Prediction for 2015
The Middle East
Islamic fundamentalism will be the driving force in the region, replacing
traditional forms of rule by oil sheiks.
This fact will create widespread instability and pose new challenges for
the United States in protecting its interests in the area.
229/15/2015
U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-
files/domestic_trends.pdf

23. 1990 Predictions for 2015
One cannot overestimate the future
importance of software.
239/15/2015
U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf

24. 1990 Prediction for 2015
249/15/2015
Sources: http://www.bestbuy.com
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
16
8,000
40,000
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual
Typical Personal Computer
Hard Drive (in megabits)

25. 1990 Prediction for 2015
259/15/2015
Sources: http://www.bestbuy.com
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
$2,000 $2,000
$500
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual
Typical Personal Computer Costs

26. 1990 Prediction for 2015
Inventions
26
All digital radio broadcasting.
High Definition TV format.
9/15/2015
U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-
files/domestic_trends.pdf

27. 1990 Prediction for 2015
Inventions
27
Civilian aircraft and air traffic control
systems
9/15/2015
U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-
files/domestic_trends.pdf

28. 1990 Prediction for 2015
Inventions
28
Personal communications equipment,
including video Information access (to
newly published info) and Information
access (to existing published info)
(Cell phones, internet and online video?)
9/15/2015
U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-
files/domestic_trends.pdf

29. Prediction for 2015
Inventions
29
Surveillance/reconnaissance technology
(Drones / Unmanned Aerial Vehicles?)
9/15/2015
U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-
files/domestic_trends.pdf

30. Prediction for 2015
Inventions
30
Space travel
9/15/2015
U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-
files/domestic_trends.pdf

31. Prediction for 2015
Inventions
31
Automobiles - computerized
control/diagnostics, safety Industrial
plant automation
9/15/2015
U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-
files/domestic_trends.pdf

32. Prediction for 2015
Inventions
32
Home appliance control - intelligent
controls built-in (Smart Homes)
9/15/2015
U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-
files/domestic_trends.pdf

33. 1990 Prediction for 2015
339/15/2015
Sources: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/forecast-2015-imported-oil-
will-make-just-21-us-consumption http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
42%
55%
70%
21%
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Forecast
(Aggressive)
Actual
Oil Imports into U.S.

34. 1990 Prediction for 2015
349/15/2015
Sources: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/forecast-2015-imported-oil-
will-make-just-21-us-consumption http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
1.00
3.00
2.70
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual
Natural Gas Imports into U.S.
(in trillion cubic feet)

35. 1990 Prediction for 2015
359/15/2015
Sources: http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/topics/encyclopedia/renewable-energy/
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
7%
9%
9.8%
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual
Renewable Energy (% of total U.S.
Power Generation)

36. 1990 Prediction for 2015
369/15/2015
Sources: http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-T-Z/USA--Nuclear-Power/
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
20%
14%
19%
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual
Nuclear Power (% of total U.S.
electricity generation)

37. 1990 Prediction for 2015
379/15/2015
Sources: http://www.hydro.com/en/About-aluminium/Aluminium-life-cycle/Primary-production/
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
21%
9%
11.00%
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual
U.S. Share of World
Aluminum Production

38. 1990 Prediction for 2015
389/15/2015
Sources: https://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2015/World-crude-steel-
output-increases-by-1.2--in-2014.html
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
10%
4%
5.30%
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual
US. Share of World Steel
Production in 2015

39. Thank You
Mike Bishop
399/15/2015
www.criticalmissionconsulting.com
mike@criticalmissionconsulting.com
Twitter: futurebash
801-244-8622