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Asia Tech Research: Asia Matters 4/4 (The Digital Frontier)

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Asia Tech Research http://www.AsiaTechResearch.com
The Digital Frontier
by Graham D Brown

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Asia Tech Research: Asia Matters 4/4 (The Digital Frontier)

  1. the digital frontier REPORT 4 ASIATECH RESEARCH The Digital Frontier
  2. #asiamatters ASIATECHRESEARCH Graham D Brown Report Author Thanks for reading my #asiamatters Report “The Digital Frontier”.To learn more about what I do, and get regular updates and insights from my Asian research, connect with me on Linkedin. Connect with me on Linkedin
  3. download them free from www.AsiaTechResearch.com #asiamatters Get All 4 Reports in this Series ASIATECHRESEARCH
  4. There are more people living inside that red circle than outside it #asiamatters Asia’s Digital Frontier ASIATECHRESEARCH
  5. #asiamatters ASIATECHRESEARCH Asia’s digital frontier is evolving fast, but not all markets at the same velocity. There are 2 key stories behind the speed of change to focus on in 2018.
  6. These two regions are driving the bulk of growth in Asia’s internet economy #asiamatters It’s a tale of 2 key drivers… ASIATECHRESEARCH 1. China 2. Southeast Asia
  7. #asiamatters 1. China ASIATECHRESEARCH
  8. 48% of GDP and 415 million new jobs in next 20 years #asiamatters China’s Digital Economy Explodes ASIATECHRESEARCH China’s digital economy, already home to the world’s largest population of internet and smartphone users, is likely to create 415 million jobs by 2035, bolstering technology’s share to 48 per cent of gross domestic product, according to forecasts by the Boston Consulting Group and AliResearch Institute. - South China Morning Post 10 Jan 2017
  9. E-Commerce in China is happening on a scaleThe West has never seen #asiamatters Chinese E-Commerce Delivers… ASIATECHRESEARCH
  10. China continues to dominate, and its share of trade is growing #asiamatters China: >50% of World E-Commerce ASIATECHRESEARCH 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 China ecommerce sales % of worldwide SOURCE:ASIA TECH RESEARCH BASED ON EMARKETER DATA 2017
  11. #asiamatters ASIATECHRESEARCH China has leapfrogged the rest of the world in E-Commerce volume.With fewer legacy retailers than the West, Chinese stores and Chinese consumers have gone straight to digital.
  12. ChineseVideo Market grows 1000% in 6 years #asiamatters Online Video in China ASIATECHRESEARCH BillionsofRMB 0 20 40 60 80 100 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Annual market revenues SOURCE:ASIA TECH RESEARCH BASED ON IRESEARCH DATA 2017
  13. #asiamatters 2. Southeast Asia ASIATECHRESEARCH
  14. Even the world’s smartest internet company underestimated Southeast Asia #asiamatters Southeast Asia digital adds $3 trillion ASIATECHRESEARCH 0 1500 3000 4500 6000 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 base worst best SOURCE:ASIA TECH RESEARCH BASED ON GSMA,WORLD BANK, IMF, ITU, DELOITTE,TELENOR,AT KEARNEY DATA FORECASTS FOR ASEAN DIGITAL ECONOMY 2015-2025
  15. #asiamatters ASIATECHRESEARCH Key to the growth of Southeast Asia’s digital frontier is the movement of Risk Capital out of China into regions seeking Outsized Returns.Alibaba, TenCent etc will be key to Southeast Asia’s growth in the next 5 years.
  16. Future growth will only be accelerated by the shift of Risk Capital out of China #asiamatters Southeast Asia beats expectations ASIATECHRESEARCH Southeast Asia is now the world’s third largest region for internet users — with more people online than the entire U.S. population — and internet is having a bigger impact on the region than originally thought, according to a new report co-authored by Google. -Tech Crunch 12 Dec 2017
  17. 2 Categories account for >2/3rd of Southeast Asian transactions #asiamatters Travel and E-Commerce drive SEAsia ASIATECHRESEARCH 0 50 100 150 200 250 2015 2017 2025 Ride Sharing Online Media ECommerce OnlineTravel SOURCE: GOOGLE TEMASEK DATA 2017 SOUTHEAST ASIA E-COMMERCE MARKET VALUE BY CATEGORY ($ BILLIONS)
  18. There are more people living inside that red circle than outside it #asiamatters E-Commerce in Southeast Asia ASIATECHRESEARCH 0 25 50 75 100 2015 2017 2025 $88.1bn $10.9bn $5.5bn Annual estimates SOURCE: GOOGLE TEMASEK DATA 2017
  19. There are more people living inside that red circle than outside it #asiamatters E-Commerce Southeast Asia 2025 ASIATECHRESEARCH Indonesia Thailand Philippines Myanmar Vietnam Singapore $5.4bn $7.5bn $8.2bn $9.7bn $11.1bn $46bn SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2018
  20. #asiamatters Mobile First ASIATECHRESEARCH
  21. Millions of 4G Mobile Connections 2015-2020E #asiamatters Half the World’s 4G Mobile Connections ASIATECHRESEARCH 13% 21% 3% 3% 3% 56% SOURCE:ASIA TECH RESEARCH BASED ON CISCO DATA 2016 2015 13% 13% 7% 7% 8% 52% 2020
  22. Heaviest users in Southeast Asia #asiamatters Asia leads Mobile Social Media ASIATECHRESEARCH SouthEast Asia China USA UK Japan 1 hrs 1.8 hrs 2 hrs 3 hrs 3.6 hrs SOURCE: GOOGLE TEMASEK DATA 2017 Average hours mobile social media per day
  23. Young Indians amongst the highest users of mobile-only internet #asiamatters India leads Mobile First ASIATECHRESEARCH India Malaysia China 37 % 41 % 46 % SOURCE:ADOBE 2017
  24. Middle Classes drive social media usage in developing economies #asiamatters The Middle Classes and Social Media ASIATECHRESEARCH China Brazil USA UK France India Germany 20 % 23 % 26 % 30 % 30 % 33 % 51 % SOURCE:ASIA TECH RESEARCH BASED ON DALIA RESEARCH DATA 2017
  25. #asiamatters New Retail Frontiers ASIATECHRESEARCH
  26. Invests US$2.9 bn in massive tech-fuelled supermarket chain #asiamatters AliBaba Drives Innovation ASIATECHRESEARCH There are chefs in-store ready to cook up what you buy, which you can then eat in the canteen
  27. % Annual Retail Sales Growth 2015-2018 by Regio #asiamatters Asia Drives Global Retail Sales ASIATECHRESEARCH APAC LATAM MENA NAM EUR WORLD 3.4% 0.9% 2.6% 4.3% 3.8% 4.9% 3.3% 1% 2.5% 4.6% 3.4% 4.8% 3.2% 0.9% 2.4% 3.9% 3.4% 4.8% +2.9% +0.8% +2.5% +2.9% +2.4% +4.6% 2015 2016 2017 2018 SOURCE: ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT 2015
  28. 7Fresh stores feature these self-steering carts that follow you around #asiamatters JD Retail Innovation ASIATECHRESEARCH
  29. #asiamatters Emerging Leisure Class ASIATECHRESEARCH
  30. #asiamatters ASIATECHRESEARCH To really understand the impact of Asia on the digital world. we must first look at the main driver of change:Asia’s growing Middle Classes…
  31. #asiamatters ASIATECHRESEARCH If China pursues the structural reforms and technological upgrading needed to maintain rapid economic growth, its middle class should exceed one billion people in 2030, up from 157 million in 2009. - Lee Jong-Wha, Huffington Post
  32. #asiamatters China will have 5x as many Middle Class Households as the US by 2020 ASIATECHRESEARCH MiddleClassHouseholds(millions) 0 100 200 300 2012 2020 5252.5 249.5 135.5 SOURCE:ASIA TECH RESEARCH & OXFORD ECONOMICS
  33. E-Commerce,Travel and Lifestyle key beneficiaries of growth #asiamatters Middle Classes drive Mobile ASIATECHRESEARCH
  34. Almost all of the next billion middle class consumers will come from Asia #asiamatters Asian Middle Classes are Exploding ASIATECHRESEARCH
  35. #asiamatters ASIATECHRESEARCH The vast majority (88 %) of the next billion people in the middle class will be Asian. - Brookings Research 28 Feb 2017
  36. % compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2001-2016 #asiamatters Annual Retail Sales Growth ASIATECHRESEARCH China Vietnam Malaysia India Thailand Philippines Hong Kong Indonesia Taiwan USA South Korea +1.9% +2.7% +2.9% +4.7% +4.8% +5.9% +6.3% +7.1% +7.5% +9.3% +12.3% SOURCE: OXFORD ECONOMICS, DELOITTE SERVICES
  37. #asiamatters ASIATECHRESEARCH  In my grandfather’s day, setting up a business is about survival, and today it is about improving standards of living, like buying properties, taking a holiday, the next generation of iPad, Ferrari and Porsche. People are creating better lives for themselves - Kennedy Cheng, CEO of Lxpert
  38. 2018 revenues more than USA and Europe combined #asiamatters China leads online fashion sales ASIATECHRESEARCH FashionSales$USBillions 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 285.3 260.5 228 193.9 159 125.8 140.5 130.8 119.2 107.7 96.7 86.8 96.490.383.876.869.863.3 USA Europe China
  39. Source: China Daily 2016 #asiamatters China has 100 million registered pets ASIATECHRESEARCH
  40. Market doubles in 5 years #asiamatters Digital Travel Sales in APAC ASIATECHRESEARCH 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 $242.6bn $214.9bn $189.7bn $163.9bn $139.1bn $116.1bn SOURCE: ASIA TECH RESEARCH, EMARKETER, SKIFT Market value of online & digital travel sales in Asia Pacific 2014-2019 (forecast)
  41. A major beneficiary of the growing Asian middle classes #asiamatters Online Travel Southeast Asia ASIATECHRESEARCH MarketValue Ground transport Hotels Airlines SOURCE:ASIA TECH RESEARCH , SOJERN MARKET VALUE OF ONLINE TRAVEL CATEGORY IN SOUTH EAST ASIA 2015 - 2025 (FORECAST) 2015 2025E $13.1bn $36.4bn $40.1bn $12.5bn $6.6bn $2.5bn
  42. Asians are increasingly seeking travel experiences within Asia #asiamatters Middle Class + Sector Competition ASIATECHRESEARCH “Asia Pacific is a region that is seeing tremendous growth and experiencing a travel boom with the rise of a more affluent middle class, and lower cost of travel.” - Bart Bellers

  43. Total compound annual growth 2016-2021 % #asiamatters FMCG Market Growth ASIATECHRESEARCH Myanmar Vietnam Indonesia China Philippines Thailand Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Japan 1.9 % 4.1 % 6 % 6.3 % 6.7 % 8.1 % 8.4 % 10.1 % 10.9 % 12.5 % SOURCE:ASIA TECH RESEARCH BASED ON EUROMONITOR, IMF AND ROLAND BERGER DATA 2018
  44. #asiamatters ASIATECHRESEARCH Graham D Brown Report Author Thanks for reading my #asiamatters Report “The Digital Frontier”.To learn more about what I do, and get regular updates and insights from my Asian research, connect with me on Linkedin. Connect with me on Linkedin
  45. download them free from www.AsiaTechResearch.com #asiamatters Get All 4 Reports in this Series ASIATECHRESEARCH

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