Medir el impacto de una campaña online

Medición Cibercampaña

“Nationwide this year social networking has been
huge, and that is becoming obvious. Anyone in
politics who tries to ignore that is foolish quite
frankly, and is going to have no chance at
continuing to win elections.
«Ryan», campaign staff of Roger Wicker (R-MS).”

(Willians y Gulati, 2009)

Medición del Impacto de
una Campaña en la Red
Montserrat Fernández Crespo
@montsefc
montsefcfr40@hotmail.com

SOME ENGLISH CAMPAIGN VOCABULARY

Polls Biases Survey
Poll station or polling place Non partisan Forecast
Ballot Shy effect Odds
Ballot box Incumbent Bet and wager
Cast the vote Challenger Handicapper
Open seat Favourite-longshot bias
Turnout MAE
Election Canvassing
Electorate Get out the vote
Candidate Infighting campaign
Campaign Battleground state or swing state
Political Party Trial-heat’ polls

Legitimización del sistema político

Campaña Electoral
Influencia en la decisión del voto

Función informativa Medios de Comunicación
Electores

Internet

Estudios de opinión

Análisis de Redes Sociales


¿Por qué medir una campaña online?

Por qué medir una campaña online

• Aumento exponencial de la participación en Redes. En pocos años todos
seremos digital natives.

• La difusión de la información. Teorías del contagio en Redes Sociales.

• Mayor interés actividad de los usuarios de Redes en política.

• Las campañas empiezan a jugarse en la Red: Victoria y campaña online de
Obama 2012.

• Las encuestas tradicionales pueden no ser siempre infalibles. A veces se
equivocan.

• Las Redes ofrecen nuevas herramientas de análisis capaces de conseguir
datos valiosos acerca del las tendencias de sus usuarios.

Por qué medir una campaña online. Digital Natives
“Election 2040: The First President for Digital Natives”
By 2040, candidates on both sides (or, who knows, all sides) will have grown up with social media.
Depending on their exact ages, they’ll likely remember little about life before Facebook — and nothing
at all about life before the web. (Chris Taylor en Mashable)

Población España
+ 47 millones
+ 4 millones usuarios + 16 millones de usuarios

(Casi la totalidad del electorado norteamericano tiene una cuenta en Facebook)

Por qué medir una campaña online. Difusión

“Influentials, Networks, and Public Opinion Formation”

Under most conditions that we consider, we find that large cascades of influence are driven not
by influentials but by a critical mass of easily influenced individuals. Although our results do not
exclude the possibility that influentials can be important, they suggest that the influentials
hypothesis requires more careful specification and testing than it has received.

Katz y Lazarsfeld (1955) Watts y Dodds (2007))

REDES SOCIALES
Por qué medir una campaña online. Difusión Redes Sociales

Nicholas A. Christakis: TRES GRADOS DE INFLUENCIA

Amigos

Nuestra influencia se disipa
Amigos de mis amigos

Amigos de los amigos de mis amigos

20x20x20= 8.000 CONTACTOS

REDES SOCIALES
Milgram: 6 GRADOS DE SEPARACIÓN
El mundo pequeño

Conclusiones del ensayo:
 Sólo son necesarios 6 pasos para contactar a dos personas desconocidas

 La mitad de las cadenas llegan a su destino a través de las 3 mismas personas

Condicionantes:
 La longitud de la cadena depende más de la distancia social que de la geográfica

 La “barrera racial” es un obstáculo para la cadena

REDES SOCIALES

Granovetter : L AFUERZA DE LOS VÍNCULOS DÉBILES

REDES SOCIALES

Dawkins: MEMETIC REPLICATION
Meme: unidad de información cultural

Los 4 estadios de la replicación:

1. Asimilación por un individuo (host del meme)

2. Retención en su memoria

3. Expresión comprensible de este individuo para otros

4. Transmisión (vehículo)

Por qué medir una campaña online. Interés Política
“El impacto de Internet en la participación política: revisando el papel del interés político” (España)
"Basta con ser un usuario experimentado de Internet para que, independientemente de la
motivación, aumente la probabilidad de participar en política dentro de la red."

“Social Media and Voting” (USA 2012)
" On Election Day 2012, the Pew Internet & " Social media platforms have also
American Life Project finds social media to be become a notable venue for
a significant part of the process by which people to try to convince their
voters are talking about their ballot friends to vote"
selections, especially younger voters"

30%
22% 20%

REDES SOCIALES
Por qué medir una campaña online. Peso campaña online

Actividad Campaña en las Redes Sociales entre
28/10/2012 y 04/11/2012 unidad de información cultural
Meme:

Fans: 31.172.622 Fans: 11.809.679
Hablando de esto (el 4): 2.258.448 Hablando de esto (el 4): 2.053.980
Publicaciones: 22 Publicaciones: 213
Comentarios recibidos: 196.245 Comentarios recibidos: 258.916
Me gusta recibidos: 3.110.063 Me gusta recibidos: 3.568.227
Publicaciones compartidas: 302.628 Publicaciones compartidas: 201.199

223 tweets 5 tweets

33 mensajes correo Web 32 mensajes correo Web

Total seguidores: 21.699.506 Total seguidores: 1.672.982
Tweets publicados: 7.690 Tweets publicados: 1.332
Siguiendo a: 670.884 Siguiendo a: 274

Por qué medir una campaña online. Eficacia Encuestas?
“Pulso de España” (elecciones andaluzas 2012)
Tras tantas elecciones seguidas estimando acertadamente el resultado más probable, este claro
tropiezo bastó para poner nuevamente en cuestión los sondeos electorales como instrumentos fiables
para la detección de estados de opinión.

http://eaperiodismo2012.wordpress.com/2012/03/29/estadistica-pre-y-post-electoral/

EEUU 2012- 23 de octubre

Predicción electoral
Por qué medir una campaña online. Eficacia Encuestas?
The Spanish polls. Not a particularly stellar reputation…
Pedro C. Magalhaes

Encuesta tradicional

http://margensdeerro.blogspot.com.es/

Análisis de Redes Sociales. Canales monitorización


Análisis de Redes Sociales. Predicción social
“Predicting de future within social media”

“Moreover our predictions are consistently better than those produced by an
information market such as the Hollywood Stock Exchange, the gold standard in the
industry.”

“Twitter Not So Good At Predicting Box Office Revenues After All”

“A new study of tweets about movies suggests they are not necessarily a good
predictor of box office revenues, say computer scientists


¿Por qué sus resultados difieren tanto?

¿Por qué sus resultados difieren tanto
?
ceteris paribus
Método en el que se mantienen constantes todas las variables de una
situación, menos aquella cuya influencia se desea estudiar.

DIFERENCIAS
Asur y Huberman Wong et al.

24 ordinary films Elementos comparados 34 nominated Oscar film

HSX Sujetos de comparación MDB y RottenTomatoes

Sentiment analysis Herramientas de análisis Numerical ratings
Otros métodos propios Otros métodos propios

3 meses (2.89 millones de tweets) Periodo captura 2 meses (12 millones de tweets)


“Twitter Mood Predicts The Stock Market”

The calmness of the public (measured by GPOMS) is thus predictive of the DJIA rather
than general levels of positive sentiment as measured by OpinionFinder.

87,6% 6%
Precisión en la Reducción del
predicción diaria MAE
en los valores de
cierre del
Dow Jones

Análisis de Redes Sociales. Predicción electoral

“Citations dans la presse et résultats du premier tour de la présidentielle 2007”

La presse nationale a-t-elle pressenti les
résultats du premier tour de l’élection
présidentielle 2007 ? Le taux de citation des
différents candidats permettait de prédire le
résultat final avec plus d’exactitude que les
données des instituts de sondage.

http://blog.veronis.fr/2007/04/2007-la-presse-fait-mieux-que-les.html


“Predicting elections with Twitter: What 140 characters reveal about political sentiment”

The mere number of tweets mentioning a political party can be considered a plausible
reflection of the vote share and its predictive power even comes close
to traditional election polls.

Cuantitativo ---- recuento menciones


“Form tweets to polls: linking text sentiment to public opinion time series”

While our results vary across datasets, in several cases the correlations are as high as
80%, and capture important large-scale trends. The results highlight the potential of
text streams as a substitute and supplement for traditional polling.

Presidential job approval in 2009 100% correlación

Pesidential elections polls in 2008 Correlación no significativa

While the results do not come without caution, it is encouraging that expensive and time-
intensive polling can be supplemented or supplanted with the simple-to-gather text data
that is generated from on line social networking.

Cualitativo- ---- Sentiment Analysis: OpinionFinder

Predicción Electoral

“Limits of electoral predictions using Twitter”

Unfortunately, we find no correlation between the analysis results and the
electoral outcomes, contradicting previous reports.

-Dataset 1: 2010 US Senate special election in Massachusetts
- Dataset2: US Congressional elections 2010

Cualitativo- ---- Sentiment Analysis: OpinionFinder Cuantitativo ---- recuento menciones


¿Por qué sus resultados difieren tanto?

¿Por qué sus resultados difieren tanto
?
ceteris paribus
Método en el que se mantienen constantes todas las variables de una
situación, menos aquella cuya influencia se desea estudiar.

DIFERENCIAS

Tumasjan et al. Gallo-Avello et al.
Cada tweet que menciona a No se han contabilizado los
un partido (candidato) es tweets en los que se mencionan
tomado como un “voto”. a candidatos opuestos.
Aunque se ha empleado el mismo
O’Connor et al.
tesauro, cada tweet podía únicamente
Cada tweet podía pertenecer a varias de pertenecer a una de las tres categorías
las tres categorías definidas definidas (positiva, negativa o neutra.), y
(positiva, negativa o neutra). no a varias de ellas.


“A warning against converting Social Media into de next Literary Digest”
Encuesta tradicionalregularly used by the vast majority of people,
Until Social Media becomes
its users cannot considered a representative sample and, thus, forecast from such data
will be of questionable value at best and incorrect in many cases.

Literary Digest, September 26, 1936

“A warning against converting Social Media into the next Literary Digest”

This paper will attempt top lay devil’s advocate by detailing a study in
wich such simple approaches largely overstimates Obama victory in
the 2008 U.S Presidential Elections

Semantic Orientation
Semantic Orientation adapted
Lexicon compiled by Wilson et al.
Vote & Flip

80% 18% 13,10%
sobreestimación precisión MAE

Cualitativo- ---- 4 métodos sentimental analisys Cuantitativo ---- recuento menciones

Daniel Gayo-Avello: Consejos

Causa errores
The big data fallacy…
Watch out for demographic bias…
Beware of naïve sentiment analysis
Silence speaks volumes…
(A few) Past positive results do not guarantee generalization

Mejoras eficacia
Describir método en detalle
Garantizar la pureza de los datos
Mejores métodos de análisis de opinión
Corregir sesgos (demográficos)
Eliminar ruido (spam, propaganda,…)

Análisis de Redes Sociales. Sentiment Analisys
“Exploring the Characteristics of Opinion Expressions for
Political Opinion Classification”
Once we have properly identified a person’s ideology, we may be able to predict his or her
opinions on various political issues.
It is our goal for future work to explore viable approaches for ideology based on political
opinion classification.

“Predicting de future within social media”
Sentiment analysis is a well-studied problem in linguistics and machine learning, with
different classifiers and language models employed in earlier work [13], [14]. It is common to
express this as a classification problem where a given text needs to be labeled as
Positive, Negative or Neutral.

Análisis de Redes Sociales. Herramientas



Monitorizando Twitter y analizando tweets:
Evolución de los sucesos en el tiempo, Enlaces recomendados, Redes dinámicas de usuarios,
Comunidades que se establecen, Influencia de los usuarios,…

@congosto

Análisis de Redes Sociales. Herramientas España


Análisis de Redes Sociales. Elecciones

“What is a Social Network Worth? Facebook and Vote Share in the 2008 Presidential Primaries”
“Explainig Facebook Support in the 2008 Congressional Election Cycle”
Thus while Facebook supporter numbers would not be a useful predictor that foreshadows electoral victory
or defeat, the most electable candidates do have more Facebook supporters

60339 seguidores 14213 seguidores

REDES SOCIALES EN INTERNET

U.S. Politics on Facebook (2010)

EEUU 2010

118 elecciones

77 ganadores con + likes 43 ganadores con +likes y – dinero

http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=449141550881

Análisis de Redes Sociales. Contagio

A 61-million-person experiment in social influence and political mobilization
The study adds to evidence
that online messages in social
media can strongly affectEEUU 2010
offline actions.
2010

61 millones de personas

Grupo 1 Grupo 2 Grupo 3
“Vote” icon + friends “I voted” Only “Vote” icon Not message

60.000 incremento de votos (no partissan)

Análisis de Redes Sociales. Contagio

The 2012 Election Day Through the Facebook Lens
In total, over 9 million users said they were voting on
Facebook. Women were nearly twice as likely to say they
voted as their male counterparts, 2010 in line with
EEUU which is
participation across other forms of communication on
Facebook. We also found that Democrats were slightly
2012 more likely to say they voted on Facebook than
Republicans, and both communicated their voting
behavior more than people without a stated affiliation.



http://www.socialbakers.com/elections


http://analytics.socialbakers.com


¿Qué representa?


Evolución de la gripe en todo el mundo

http://www.google.org/flutrends/


“Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data”

About 90 million American adults are
believed to search online for information
about specific diseases or medical problems
each year7, making web search queries a
uniquely valuable source of information
about health trends.
http://www.google.org/flutrends/about/how.html

This system is not designed to be a
replacement for traditional surveillance
networks or supplant the need for
laboratory-based diagnoses and
surveillance.(...) Demographic data, often
provided by traditional surveillance, cannot
be obtained using search queries.


“On the predictability of the U.S. Elections through search volume activity”

In this paper we report that Google Trends was, actually, not a good predictor of both
the 2008 and 2010 elections

A variable that may have affected G-trends
effectiveness as a tool for predicting political
elections is the sentiment of a user’s query.
It is difficult, though not impossible, to
determine the circumstances behind a
user’s search of the profile of a certain
candidate to make a guess about that
candidate’s public image and why a user
might be interested in the candidate. This is
part of future research that we plan for the
next stage of our work.

http://cs.wellesley.edu/~webtrust/insights/?cand_id=4


“Use of the Web in the 1996 US Election”
“Does Cyber-Campaigning Win Votes? Online Communication in the 2004 Australian Election”
We conclude that web campaigning, at least under present electoral conditions,
constitutes an important component
of a winning election strategy.

+ 9,3% votos de los previstos

+ 4% preferencia de voto


Forecasting Elections. Comparing Predictions Markets, Polls and their biases

In 2008, FiveThirtyEight, a debiased
poll-based forecast, offered to the
general public a more accurate
forecast than raw poll numbers or raw
prediction market. But, the analysis
here shows that were Intrade’s prices
debiased, they would have provided a
more accurate forecast and more
valuable information than the best
poll-based forecasts currently
available, especially early in the cycle
and in uncertain races.


“The Virtues and Vices of Election Prediction Markets”

For betting markets like Intrade, it would be
useful to have a dozen FiveThirtyEight-like
models in the public sphere. The consensus of
models or forecasts is very often better than
even the best-performing members of the
group.
But I also think that efforts to look at the polls
in a systematic way are likely to be superior to
much of what passes for polling
analysis, which looks at them on an ad-hoc
basis. Trying to decode the meaning of an
individual poll is not a terribly useful exercise
when 20 or 30 of them are released every day.
.


Pay no attention to the pollster behind the curtain

There are many ways to keep
score on whether Barack
Obama or Mitt Romney has
better odds of winning the
general election, which is
almost exactly six months away.
Here at The Signal, we are
fervent evangelists of the
political prediction
markets, where people place
real money on the line to bet on
the winner. These markets
proved to be more prescient
than polls in the Republican
primary.
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/pay-no-attention-pollster-behind-curtain-194657457.html

Análisis de Redes Sociales. Predicciones

Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success based on
Wikipedia Activity Big Data
However, bridging between real time monitoring"
and early predicting"
remains as a big challenge. Here, we report on an
endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model
for the financial success of movies based on
collective activity data of online users. We show
that the popularity of a movie could be predicted
well in advance by measuring and analyzing the
activity level of editors
and viewers of the corresponding entry to the
movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online
encyclopedia.

boxofficemojo.com + wikipedia

Análisis de Redes Sociales. Predicciones

Replublican candidates: The Wikipedia effect

Millions of Americans use Wikipedia as their
primary source of information about
politicians. The user-edited encyclopedia
comes up as the first or second search result
for every candidate for the Republican
nomination, and in most respects provides a
very thorough and accurate profile of their
lives and careers.

Wikipedia preserves every version of an
article ever published, so it's possible to
watch the evolution of a page over time.
While all four major candidates were well
known before the primary began, editors
have continued to finesse their biographies
and quarrel over their records.

Análisis de Redes Sociales. Monitorizar una campaña

 Definir período de monitorización (15 días de campaña)
 Búsqueda de perfiles de candidatos en todas las Redes
 Correcta denominación de los candidatos
 Vigilar #hashtag de campaña
 Descarga de datos en “bruto”
 Estudio y definición del método a seguir
 Atención a variables externas

La información que no se monitorice en campaña
puede ser información perdida


¿Se puede hacer un estudio que sirva?

…es gratis. Basta con abrir los ojos. La gente sólo
sabe lo que quiere cuando lo tiene en la mano. Y
sólo quiere comprarlo cuando lo envidia en la
mano de otro.

(Jay Rao, 2012, La Vanguardia)

Un trabajo de…

Montserrat Fernández Crespo
@montsefc
montsefcfr40@hotmail.com

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