Observations vs Inferences

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Jeremy Mularella

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Observations vs. Inferences “ You can observe a lot just by watching.” -Yogi Berra

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The Scientific Method Steps in the Scientific Method There is a great deal of variation in the specific techniques scientists use explore the natural world. However, the following steps characterize the majority of scientific investigations: Step 1: Make observations Step 2: Propose a hypothesis to explain observations Step 3: Test the hypothesis with further observations or experiments Step 4: Analyze data Step 5: State conclusions about hypothesis based on data analysis Each of these steps is explained briefly below, and in more detail later in this section. Step 1: Make observations A scientific inquiry typically starts with observations. Often, simple observations will trigger a question in the researcher's mind. Example: A biologist frequently sees monarch caterpillars feeding on milkweed plants, but rarely sees them feeding on other types of plants. She wonders if it is because the caterpillars prefer milkweed over other food choices. Step 2: Propose a hypothesis The researcher develops a hypothesis (singular) or hypotheses (plural) to explain these observations. A hypothesis is a tentative explanation of a phenomenon or observation(s) that can be supported or falsified by further observations or experimentation. Example: The researcher hypothesizes that monarch caterpillars prefer to feed on milkweed compared to other common plants. (Notice how the hypothesis is a statement, not a question as in step 1.) Step 3: Test the hypothesis The researcher makes further observations and/or may design an experimentto test the hypothesis. An experiment is a controlled situation created by a researcher to test the validity of a hypothesis. Whether further observations or an experiment is used to test the hypothesis will depend on the nature of the question and the practicality of manipulating the factors involved. Example: The researcher sets up an experiment in the lab in which a number of monarch caterpillars are given a choice between milkweed and a number of other common plants to feed on. Step 4: Analyze data The researchersummarizes and analyzes the information, or data, generated by these further observations or experiments. Example: In her experiment, milkweed was chosen by caterpillars 9 times out of 10 over all other plant selections. Step 5: State conclusions The researcher interprets the results of experiments or observations and forms conclusions about the meaning of these results. These conclusions are generally expressed as probability statements about their hypothesis. Example: She concludes that when given a choice, 90 percent of monarch caterpillars prefer to feed on milkweed over other common plants. Often, the results of one scientific study will raise questions that may be addressed in subsequent research. For example, the above study might lead the researcher to wonder why monarchs seem to prefer to feed on milkweed, and she may plan additional experiments to explore this question. For example, perhaps the milkweed has higher ...

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