Pukyong National University

1. Balance of Power in Asia
Muhammad Zeshan
International & Area Studies Department
Pukyong National University, Busan

2. Background
 In 1960, the Soviet Ambassador (Mihail Kapitsa) said:
“We support India and Afghanistan against you (Pakistan) because they
are our friends, even when they are wrong. But your friends (United
States) do not support you, even when they know you are right”.
 Later, Kennedy’s India policy:
Resulted in a mismatch of military power in the Indian sub-continent.
 Pakistan turned towards China and Bhutto (the Prime Minister that
time) declared:
“We will not barter or bargain Chinese friendship away for anything”.

3. Background
 During 1963 and 1964, China was the largest importer of cotton from
Pakistan.
 In May 1963, Chou Enlai (first Premier of China) said:
“China would defend Pakistan throughout the world” for “Pakistan defended
China in SEATO and CENTO”.
 The U.S. was unhappy with Pakistan as it signed an air traffic agreement with
China.
 It gave Pakistan traffic rights at Canton and Shanghai airports in exchange for
the rights to China at Karachi and Dacca airports.
 That was the first air traffic agreement signed by China with any non-Socialist
country.

4. Background
 This air traffic agreement helped China a lot as it was engaged in a border
clash against India.
 These flight agreements provided Pakistan easier access to the Africa and
Middle East.
 As a result, United States promptly held up a loan of around $ 4.3 million for
Pakistan’s airports improvement.

5. Objective of the Study
 United States is inclined more towards India than Pakistan.
 This policy is creating a power imbalance in the region given that both
Pakistan and India are traditional rivals with the nuclear weapons.
 Hence, the present study would mainly examine the relations between
Pakistan, India, China and United States in the context of balancing of power.

6. Balance of Power in Asia:
By Hans Morgenthau
 In Politics Among Nations, Morgenthau stated that economic progress in Asia,
and particularly in China may carry the greatest implications for the rest of
the world in future.
 The awakening of Asia will result in full possession of the instruments
produced with modern technology, particularly in the nuclear field which
recently was a virtual monopoly of the Western countries.
 Such developments would cause a swift distribution of power.

7. Balance of Power in Asia:
By Hans Morgenthau
 He stated that any nation either Europe or Asia that would be able to add its
power to the huge power-potential of China might make itself the future
master of Asia and the world.
 During 1941, President Franklin Roosevelt focused the U.S. policy at opposing
the expansionist designs of Japan.
 It resulted in attack on the Pearl Harbor, hence the U.S. entered into the
World War II.
 After the War, the U.S. promoted a strong China as a fortification against
Japan.
 However this policy could not go a long way as the communists seized power
in China.
 It made the U.S. focus on containing the communist China.

8. Balance of Power in Asia:
By Hans Morgenthau
 Morgenthau stated the U.S. policy to China as a peripheral military
containment.
 He stated that the erection of military solid points at the border of
the Chinese Empire will be useless in future.
 He expressed his doubt that such a policy might be effective once
China is tough enough to spill over its current frontiers.
 He claimed the China that the U.S. will confront in future will be not
only a strong power but also the strongest nation on earth.
 The U.S. peripheral military methods would disappear in no time.

9. Balance of Power in Asia:
By Hans Morgenthau
 He stated that the Chinese are predominant on the land while the U.S. is
strong at the sea and also in the air.
 This policy underlies the geopolitical notion in favor of the United States that
no single state gained a hegemonial position in Asia.
 Forty-seven years from now, Hans Morgenthau envisioned the rise of China,
rebalance of the U.S., and the Asia in Truth and Power.

10. China Considers Pakistan a real Ally
 The newly expanded deep water Gwadar port in Pakistan is part of
China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and it is near completion.
 It is believed that this port would start a new chapter of economic
development and prosperity in this region as it would be a regional
trade hub.
 The construction of infrastructure projects in Balochistan (CPEC) goes
through Gilgit and Baltistan, and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
 The China-Pakistan cooperation helps both as India has to face a two-
front threat in case of war with either country.
 Right now South Asia is evolving with important new aspects in the
balance of power. It is a struggle between the U.S. and China along
with India and Pakistan.

11. China and Pakistan Reshaping Balance
of Power in Asia
 As India aims to become a dominant player in global power hierarchy,
it strengthens ties with United States.
 On the other hand, China seeks to turn towards Pakistan as its best
interest as it would fend off Indo-U.S. cooperation in the South and
East Asia.
 In 2010, while visiting Pakistan, the Chinese Premier (Wen Jiabao)
said:
“Pakistan made huge losses and an important role to international fight
against terrorism. Therefore its sovereignty, independence, and
territorial integrity must be respected.”
 China has proven itself a reliable provider of military hardware to
Pakistani army.
 On economic front, the amount of bilateral trade between China and
Pakistan is amounted to $12 billion during 2012.

12. Indo-US Alliance
 India has been buying over $100 billion of armaments each year, for
the last eight years.
 Around two-third of these arms are deployed against Pakistan.
 Recently, India and the Unites States have strong military relationship.
 It includes co-production of unconventional defence articles,
cooperation on maritime safety etc.
 In 2015, both countries have signed a new framework for Indo-US
defence relationship.
 This Indo-US alliance would bring some clear negative consequences
not only for Pakistan’s security but also for China’s security.
 Further, such intensive support from the U.S. would only increase
arms race in South Asia.

13. Indo-US Alliance
 The Joint Strategic Vision (of US and India released in 2015) says that
India and the U.S. share the idea of peace, stability and success in the
Asia-Pacific Region.
 India also has permitted the U.S. stand on the South-China Sea islands
that are disputed with China.
 Currently, India is the only state in the region that is working in
cohesion with the U.S. ambitions for the repression of China.

14. The U. S. Defence Agreements with
Pakistan
 Pakistan is negotiating with the U.S. officials for buying F-16s.
 Previously, Pakistan had to pay only $ 270 million while rest of the
money was to be paid by United States through a Foreign Military
Financing (FMF) subsidy.
 However, without the FMF allocation, price for eight F-16 fighter
aircrafts would increase by two and- a-half times compared to original
price.
 The F-16 contract was a part of Pak-U.S. defence agreement.
 Washington had committed to provide Islamabad its provision of
hardware assistance in its fight against terrorism.
 However, currently the U.S. is backing out of its policy for Pakistan.

15. Conclusion
 The United States wants its influence in Asia through India.
 The U.S. is preparing India to stand in front of China at the time of
need.
 The China is aware of this policy, therefore it is expanding its defence
and economic ties with Pakistan.
 A stronger Pakistan is in the benefit of China as it would protect its
interest in the region.
 It resulted in China Pakistan Economic Corridor project that worth
USD 46 billion.
 It is believed that this project would prove itself an economic game
changer in the region.

16. Thank you!