2. INTRODUCTION
Climate change is one of the most complex issues facing us today.
It involves many dimensions – science, economics, society, politics
and moral and ethical questions – and is now a global problem .
Even if we stopped emitting all greenhouse gases today, global
warming and climate change will continue to affect future
ge eratio s. I this ay, hu a ity is co itted to so e le el
of climate change.
( http://climate.nasa.gov/solutions/adaptation-mitigation/)
3. THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Since 1957, atmospheric levels of CO2 are increasing (Keeling et al.
1982). For the last decade there has been a consensus among
climatologists that a doubling of C02--expected by the middle of the
next century--would raise global temperatures 1.5-4.5oc (Charney et
al. 1979)
5. Effects of global Warming : Ref:IPCCThirdAssessment
Report(TAR)
Most of the consequences of
global warming would result
from one of three physical
changes:
Sea level rise: Sea level is
generally expected to rise
50-200 cm in the next
century (Dean et al. 1987)
Higher local temperatures,
and
Changes in rainfall patterns .
6.
7. The vulnerabilities and the hotspots
The most vulnerable areas to either climate change or associated
sea-level rise are:
The coastal zone: Human activities are creating additional
pressures over coastal system.
Deltas/estuaries(especially populated mega deltas),
Coral reefs (especially atolls), and
Ice-dominated coasts
Low-lying coastal wetlands,
Small islands,
-----An acceleration of sea-level rise would directly increase
the vulnerability of all of these areas.
9. Main climate drivers for coastal systems , their trends due to climate change,
and their main physical and ecosystem effects. (Trend:↑increase; ? uncertain;
R regional variability). (Ref:IPCCThirdAssessmentReport(TAR)
Climate driver (trend) Main physical and ecosystem effects on coastal systems
“ea surface te perature ↑, R Increased stratification/changed circulation; reduced incidence of
sea ice at higher latitudes; increased coral bleaching and mortality ;
pole ward species migration; increased algal blooms
“ea le el ↑, R Inundation, flood and storm damage ; erosion; saltwater intrusion;
rising water tables/impeded drainage; wetland loss (and change).
“tor i te sity ↑, R Increased extreme water levels and wave heights; increased
episodic erosion, storm damage, risk of flooding and defence
failure
Storm frequency (?, R) Altered surges and storm waves and hence risk of storm damage
and flooding
Wave climate (?, R Altered wave conditions, including swell; altered patterns of
erosion and accretion; re-orientation of beach plan form.
Run-off (R) Altered flood risk in coastal lowlands; altered water quality/salinity;
altered fluvial sediment supply; altered circulation and nutrient
supply.
11. Beaches, rocky shoreline sand cliffed coasts : widely exacerbate beach
erosion
Deltas :Human development patterns also influence the differential
vulnerability of deltas to the effect so f climate change . Deltas have long
been recognised a slightly sensitive to sea- level rise
Estuaries and lagoons : higher relative coastal water levels and increasing
salinity in estuarine systems, thereby tending to displace existing coastal
plant and animal communities inland.
Mangroves, saltmarshes and sea grasses : Mangroves, support rich
ecological communities of fish and crustaceans, are a source of energy for
coastal food chains, and export carbon in the form of plant and animal
detritus, stimulating estuarine and near shore productivity ( Jennerjahn and
Ittekkot,2002).
Coral reefs : Reefs have deteriorated as a result of a combination of
anthropogenic impacts such as overfishing and pollution from adjacent land
masses
13. Consequences of human
society
climate-related changes on the various
socio- economic sectors of the coastal zone .
Coastal socio-economic sector that are
affected by the climate changes:
Freshwater resources
Agriculture and forestry
Fisheries and aquaculture
Health
Recreation and tourism
Biodiversity
Settlements/ infrastructure
14. Health effects of climate change and sea-
level rise in coastal areas.
Exposure/hazard Health outcome
(Catastrophic) flooding Deaths (drowning, other causes), injuries,
infectious disease (respiratory, intestinal,
skin), mental health disorders, impacts from
interruption of health services and
population displacement
Impairment of food quality and/or food
supplies (loss of crop land, decreased
fisheries productivity). Climate change
effects on HABs.
Food safety: marine bacteria proliferation,
shellfish poisoning, ciguatera. Malnutrition
and micro-nutrient deficiencies.
Reduced water quality and/or access to
potable water supplies due to
salinisation, flooding or drought.
Diarrhoeal diseases (giardia, cholera), and
hepatitis, enteric fevers. Water-washed
infections.
Change in transmission intensity or
distribution of vector-borne disease.
Changes in vector abundance.
Changes in malaria, and other mosquito-
borne infections (some Anopheles vectors
breed in brackish water).
Effects on livelihoods, population
o e e t, a d pote tial e iro e tal
Health effects are less well described. Large-
scale rapid population movement would have
15. Rising Disasters in a Changing World
The private sector, particularly in climate-sensitive areas such as
commerce, industry, agriculture, power, shipping and tourism, is
often the first to be affected by changes in the climate. Losses are
normally more difficult to quantify than damages, particularly
when they involve non-market values, such as human fatalities, or
environmental damage, or when they result from indirect impacts.
Poor and marginalized households tend to be less resilient and
face greater difficulties in absorbing and recovering from disaster
impacts. Recurrent events also lead to compounding losses for
many households, leading them to organize livelihoods in such a
way that their overall risks are reduced in the face of uncertainty,
even if it means a reduction in income and an increase in poverty
(UNISDR 2009b).
In many cases, women are more affected than men due to their lower mobility
and cultural sensitivities . for example, some 91% of fatalities in Bangladesh
after Cyclone Gorky were women (World Bank 2012c).
20. Three major ways to deal Disaster Risk
Management :
a) Retreat’ by reducing exposure to the hazard .
b Protect’ by reducing the hazard risk Protecting people and
assets from a hazard can be done through hard infrastructure-
based options e.g., sea walls and soft ecosystem-based
approaches, such as ensuring that there is sufficient wetland and
coastal vegetation to act as buffers.
c Accommodate’ by reducing vulnerability . Many infrastructure
investments use a gradual approach to safety standards (e.g.,
elevate bridge decks or increase drainage when risk becomes
greater than previously envisaged). For sectors, such as
agriculture, typical strategies include livelihood diversification or
adoption of more climate resilient crops or livestock.
21. Financial Protection
Financial protection allows for accelerated resource
mobilization in an emergency or pre-emergency situation,
through contingency funds and credit, and a set of risk
transfer and insurance instru- ments, which include disaster
micro-insurance, agriculture insurance, private property
insurance and public asset insurance.
24. Adaptation requires
Natural capital : A diversity of natural assets will be needed .For
example, crop varieties are needed that perform well under
drought, heat, and enhanced CO2. Accelerated breeding programs
are needed to conserve a wider pool of genetic resources of
existing crops, breeds, and their wild relatives .
Physical capital: Greater technical knowledge and engineering
capabilities will be needed to design future infra- structure in the
light of climate change.
Human health : to design new diagnostic tools that can detect new
infectious disease . For example, the advent of hand- held
diagnostic devices and video- mediated consultations are
expanding the prospects for telemedicine and making it easier for
isolated communities to connect to the global health
infrastructure.
25.
26. Issues and challenges:
The lack of understanding of the coastal system, including the
highly interactive nature and non-linear behaviour
Lack of dynamic predictions of landform migration (Pethick, 2001
6.6.1.2)
Insufficient or inappropriate shoreline protection measures (Finkl,
2002 6.6.1.4 )
Data exchange and integration hampered by divergent information
management systems (Hale et al., 2003 6.6.1.3 )
Lack of definition of key indicators and thresholds relevant to
coastal managers (Rice, 2003 6.6.1.2 )
Inadequate knowledge of coastal conditions and appropriate
management measures (Kay and Adler, 2005 6.6.1.3 )
Lack of long-term data for key coastal descriptors (Hall, 2002 6.6.1.2
Fragmented and ineffective institutional arrangements, and weak
governance (Moser, 2000 6.6.1.3 )
Societal resistance to change (Tompkins et al., 2005a 6.6.3)
27. Adaptation through local planning
Cities are planning for adapting to global warming and climate
change.The NewYorkTimes publishing a series of articles on
this subject with Chicago's adaptation initiatives . Projects
include :
• Changing to heat tolerant tree varieties,
• Changing to water permeable pavements to absorb higher
rainfalls and
• Adding air conditioning in public schools.
• Carefully planned water storage could help urban areas adapt
to increasingly severe storms by increasing rainwater storage
(domestic water butts, unpaved gardens etc.)
• Separating storm water from black water, so that overflows in
peak periods do not contaminate rivers
28. Agriculture and Adaptation
The International Water Management Institute has suggested
five strategies that could help Asia feed its growing population in
light of climate change.These are:
1) Modernising existing irrigation schemes to suit modern
methods of farming
2) Supporting farmers' efforts to find their own water supplies,
by tapping into groundwater in a sustainable way
3) Looking beyond conventional 'Participatory Irrigation
Management' schemes, by engaging the private sector
4) Expanding capacity and knowledge
5) Investing outside the irrigation sector
29.
30. Rainwater storage
o Using small
planting basins
to 'harvest' water
in Zimbabwe has
been shown to
boost maize
yields, whether
rainfall is
abundant or
scarce.
o in Niger, they
have led to three
or fourfold
increases in
millet yields.
32. Weather control and seeding clouds
American and Russian scientists have in the past tried to
control the weather :for example :
by seeding clouds with chemicals to try to produce rain when
and where it is needed.
33. A new method being developed involves :
Replicating the urban heat island effect, where cities are
slightly hotter than the countryside because they are
darker and absorb more heat.This creates 28% more rain
20–40 miles downwind from cities compared to upwind.
34. Damming glacial lakes
Glacial lakes in danger of bursting can have their morains
replaced with concrete dams (which may also provide
hydroelectric power)
35. Geoengineering ( a type of mitigation policy )
This techniques can be employed to change the climate
deliberately and control some of the effects of global warming .
These include:
Solar radiation management :Techniques such as space
sunshade, creating stratospheric sulfur aerosols and painting
roofing and paving materials white all fall into this category.
Hydrological geoengineering - typically seeking to preserve sea
ice or adjust thermohaline circulation by using methods such as
diverting rivers to keep warm water away from sea ice, or
tethering icebergs to prevent them drifting into warmer waters
and melting.
38. Ecosystems
Protect and increase migration corridors to allow species to
migrate as the climate changes.
Promote land and wildlife management practices that
enhance ecosystem resilience.
39. Water Resources
Improving water
use efficiency
and build
additional water
storage capacity.
Protecting and
restoring stream
and river banks
to ensure good
water quality and
safe guard water
quantity.
Irrigation canal in the desert. Source: USGCRP
2009
