Presentation to a trainee teaching assistant class at Mount Royal University, November 2018

1. The Future Isn't a
Straight Line from
the Past -
Challenge and
Change and the
Future of Learning
Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSA

2. The Consequences
of Poor Literacy
Just a moment…

15. This Presentation
A Brief History of the
Future – 12 Pieces of
the Jigsaw
1
Implications for
Schools
2
The Challenge for
Professionals –
Teachers, Supports
and Leaders
3

16. “The future isn’t what it used to be” Yogi Berra
“The future will be better tomorrow” Vice President Dan
Quayle
“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future..”
Niels Bohr

17. Demographics
 As baby boomers retire the dependency
ratio changes – in Canada from 4:1 to 2:1 by
2030
 Some countries below population
replacement – especially Japan
 Others rapidly growing – especially in Asia,
China
 Immigration essential in many countries –
Canada needs to double its immigration to
“stay the same”

18. Shifting Global Economies – Shift Happens
 424 major cities in the world will generate
75% of the world’s GDP – 325 of these are in
Asia
 New middle class (2.5 billion by 2050) –
almost entirely in Asia / India / Africa
 50% of the world’s $1 billion companies are
headquartered in Asia – more to come

19. Globalization
 MOOCs: 81.5 million individuals
registered for one of 9,500
MOOCs from 800+ universities
and colleges in 2017
 Supply chains are global – look
at the BMW Mini. 300 options for
exterior trim -
15,000,000,000,000,000 possible
combinations.
 Parts delivered to Oxford Just in
Time 0 – enough for 1 shift.
3,600 parts in a standard Mini
(up to 4,875 in a Mini Cooper S)
– from 47 countries.

20. Planet in Peril
 9.5 billion people on planet Earth by 2050
 If we continue current behaviours, we will need 3 planets to
supply this population
 Already experiencing challenges about water, climate, extreme
weather events
 Environmental challenges are real and urgent

21. Rapid Advances in Technologies
 Artificial Intelligence
 3D Printing enabling adaptive manufacturing
 Stem-Cell Therapies and Gene Splicing
 Robotics
 Blockchain
 Human Implants – Cognitive Implants
 Neuroplasticity and Cognitive Science

24. Technology Will
Impact Work..
 30-40% of all current work will
be impacted by one or more of
these technologies
 Some jobs will disappear, new
jobs will emerge
 Some workers with low level
cognitive skills will not find work
 We will all have to dance with
robots and share our intelligence
with machines

25. The New Economy is
the Gig Economy
 20% of the Australian workforce are in the gig
economy – in Canada and the UK this figure is
approaching 40%
 Gig economy growing 12x faster than formal
employment in Canada
 The UK has zero hours contracts…
 Many millennials and iGen’s do not intend to
pursue full time work – looking for work : life
balance

26. New Forms of Organizations
 Industrial corporations are being replaced by business web
organizations – Amazon and Uber are more common models
than Proctor and Gamble
 Global businesses are:
 Aggregators and brokers
 Networked supply chains
 Using gig labour and smart technologies
 Moving goods and people faster than the tax authorities can find
them
 Disrupting assumptions about how work gets done..

27. Austerity and Recession
 US, UK, Netherlands, Japan, Australia, and Canada)
and two emerging markets (China and India) have a
$400 trillion retirement savings shortfall that will
become growingly evident and at crisis point in 2050.
 Total debt from all sources (government, corporate,
personal, etc.) is currently US$249 trillion.
 In the US, to deliver current levels of public services
(everything from education to health care to
pensions) to the projected population in 2030,
taxpayers will need to find an additional US$940
billion. In the UK, they’ll need to find another US$170
billion, and in Canada they’ll need to find another
US$90 billion.
“We no longer have business cycles – we have debt cycles”

28. Growing
Inequality
 Canada is experiencing growing
inequality – our top 100 CEO’s
earn the average Canadian wage
($49,510) by 11:47 a.m. on
January 3—the first working day
of the year.
 Fewer than 90 families in Canada
hold roughly as much wealth as
everyone living in Newfoundland
and Labrador, New Brunswick
and Prince Edward Island
collectively owns.
 1 in 7 Canadian residents live in
poverty and 1.3 million children
live in poverty.

29. Identity and
Meaning
 1 in 5 in the US report being
lonely
 Mental health issues – especially
for teens – growing
 Identity and meaning from work,
family, community are all
changing
 Compassion and empathy in
decline as is spirituality
 Meaning cannot be found in
“stuff” but in purpose and
compassion

30. Implications for Schools
The “So What?” Question

31. Two Solitudes of educational policy
(Murgatroyd and Sahlberg, 2016)
Competition Between
Schools
Frequent Testing /
Accountability
De-Professionalization
PISA Envy
Collaboration
Trust Based
Responsibility
Collaborative
Professional Autonomy
Equity as the Key
Measure

33. Some Big Implications
 Literacy and numeracy are key – 40-60% of learners leave school with Level 1 and 2 literacy –
they need Level 3, 4 or 5.
 Flexibility is key – modular, stackable, on-demand learning – rethinking what and how we teach
 Resilience and self-understanding as important as skills and capabilities if not more so – it’s the
key to wellbeing
 Assessment anytime, anywhere – assessment is the key to the skills agenda
 Collaboration not competition is the key to all of our futures

34. Delors (1966) was Right..
 The Delors Four Pillars for Education:
 Learning to Be
 Learning to Live Together
 Learning to Know
 Learning to Do

35. We Also Need to Encourage Creativity and
Imagination – STEAM not STEM!
“At school, art and poetry should take a much more important place than
they are given in many countries by an education that has become more
utilitarian than cultural. Concern with developing the imagination and
creativity should also restore the value of oral culture and knowledge drawn
from children's or adults' experiences..” Delors

36. Challenges for Professionals

37. You Need to
Think About
 Enabling literacy and numeracy – understand what you can
do to accelerate literacy/numeracy capabilities
 Supporting flexible approaches to learning – personalizing
learning
 Increasing the use of books and supporting written work,
not technology
 Making it fun – learning is supposed to be fun!

38. So The Big
Picture..
 It’s a time of significant change..
 More change to
come…unbundling, new global
competitors, new ways of
learning
 It’s what we live for, right!
 The key – focused and strategic
leadership…