An exploring of themes, patterns and trends impacting schools, students, teachers and learning.

1. The Future Isn't a
Straight Line from
the Past -
Challenge and
Change and the
Future of Learning
Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSA

2. This Presentation
A Brief History of the Future
– Some Pieces of the Jigsaw
1
The Specific Challenges for
Education
2

3. “The pace of change has never been this fast, yet
it will never be this slow again.”

4. Demographics
 As baby boomers retire the dependency ratio
changes – in Canada from 4:1 to 2:1 by 2030
 Some regions of Canada growing quickly – Alberta is
one
 Indigenous peoples also growing – a growing &
significant part of the Canadian workforce.
 Some countries below population replacement –
especially Japan
 Others rapidly growing – especially in Asia, China
 Immigration essential in many countries – Canada
needs to double its immigration to “stay the same” – 1
million by 2021 is already on the agenda

5. Shifting Global Economies – Shift Happens
 424 major cities in the world will generate
75% of the world’s GDP – 325 of these are in
Asia
 New middle class (2.5 billion by 2050) –
almost entirely in Asia / India / Africa
 50% of the world’s $1 billion companies are
headquartered in Asia – more to come

6. Globalization
 MOOCs: 81.5 million individuals
registered for one of 9,500
MOOCs from 800+ universities
and colleges in 2017
 Supply chains are global – look
at the BMW Mini. 300 options for
exterior trim -
15,000,000,000,000,000 possible
combinations.
 Parts delivered to Oxford Just in
Time 0 – enough for 1 shift.
3,600 parts in a standard Mini
(up to 4,875 in a Mini Cooper S)
– from 47 countries.

7. Planet in Peril
(Greta Thunberg is in Alberta Today!)
 9.5 billion people on planet Earth by 2050
 If we continue current behaviours, we will need 3 planets to
supply this population
 Already experiencing challenges about water, climate, extreme
weather events
 Environmental challenges are real and urgent
 Climate change is real, get used to it!

8. Rapid Advances in Technologies
 Artificial Intelligence
 3D Printing enabling adaptive manufacturing
 Stem-Cell Therapies and Gene Splicing
 Robotics
 Blockchain
 Human Implants – Cognitive Implants
 Neuroplasticity and Cognitive Science

11. Technology Will
Impact Work..
 30-40% of all current work will
be impacted by one or more of
these technologies
 Some jobs will disappear, new
jobs will emerge
 Some workers with low level
cognitive skills will not find work
 We will all have to dance with
robots and share our intelligence
with machines

12. New Forms of Organizations
 Industrial corporations are being replaced by business web
organizations – Amazon and Uber are more common models
than Proctor and Gamble
 Global businesses are:
 Aggregators and brokers
 Networked supply chains
 Using gig labour and smart technologies
 Moving goods and people faster than the tax authorities can find
them
 Disrupting assumptions about how work gets done..

13. The New Economy is
the Gig Economy
 20% of the Australian workforce are in the gig
economy – in Canada and the UK this figure is
approaching 40% (in Alberta it is 17%)
 Gig economy growing 12x faster than formal
employment
 The UK has zero hours contracts…
 Many millennials and iGen’s do not intend to
pursue full time work – looking for work : life
balance

14. Austerity and Recession
 Total debt from all sources (government,
corporate, personal, etc.) is currently
US$249 trillion.
 In the US, to deliver current levels of
public services (everything from
education to health care to pensions) to
the projected population in 2030,
taxpayers will need to find an additional
US$940 billion. In the UK, they’ll need to
find another US$170 billion, and in
Canada they’ll need to find another
US$90 billion.
“We no longer have business cycles – we have debt cycles”

15. Growing
Inequality
 Canada is experiencing growing
inequality – our top 100 CEO’s
earn the average Canadian wage
($49,510) by 11:47 a.m. on
January 3—the first working day
of the year.
 Fewer than 90 families in Canada
hold roughly as much wealth as
everyone living in Newfoundland
and Labrador, New Brunswick
and Prince Edward Island
collectively owns.

16. Identity and
Meaning
 1 in 5 in the US report being
lonely
 18% of young people in the UK
report ”life is not worth living”
 Mental health issues – especially
for teens – growing
 Identity and meaning from work,
family, community are all
changing
 Compassion and empathy in
decline as is spirituality
 Meaning cannot be found in
“stuff” but in purpose and
compassion

17. Then We Look at Education
Specific Challenges

18. GOVERNANCE
 SCHOOL BOARDS GONE NOW
OR SOON OR DRAMATICALLY
CHANGED
 QUEBEC
 NEW BRUNSWICK
 NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR
 PEII
 POWER OF BOARDS REDUCED
BC, SASKATCHEWAN AND
ALBERTA

19. PRIVATIZATION
& SCHOOL CHOICE

20. DATAFICATION

21. TECHNOLOGY ENABLED
LEARNING

22. LARGE SCALE
ASSESSMENT
S

23. LEARNIFICATION

24. CLASSROOM COMPLEXITY / SPECIAL
NEEDS / INCLUSION

25. THE BATTLE OVER CURRICULUM

26. THE SKILLS GAP & THE NEW WORLD OF
WORK

27. THE
CHALLENGE
TO
TEACHERS

28. So The Big
Picture..
 It’s a time of
significant change..
 More change to
come…
 The key – focused
and strategic
leadership…

29. murgatroydstephen@gmail.com
@murgatroydsteph