Inventing strategies Using CRISIS GAMING

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INVENTING ROBUST STRATEGIES
November 5, 2014
Crafitti offers active collaboration to craft ideas in multiple innovation contexts.

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•Inventing long-term strategies involves high degree of creativity and balanced judgment – taking the cue from Patents – Strategies have to be NEW, INVENTIVE and USEFUL!
•Inventing Strategies requires
–an innate ability to look into the future,
–remarkable far sightedness, and
–ability to identify and balance various parameters which may change in future.
•Understanding FUTURE and taking care of all parameters in the uncertain future to come up with a rational strategy for achieving an objective is a difficult task.
•Ad-hoc manner of Strategy creation based only on somebody’s experience, intuition and judgment, is a recipe for disaster, particularly if the stakes of a particular choice of strategy are extremely high and a wrong or poor strategic choice may lead to disastrous effects later on.
November 5, 2014
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GAMING for Inventing Robust Strategies

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•Before coming up with various alternative strategies, it is required that decision makers foresee possible contingencies or crises situations.
•CRISIS is defined as a crucial stage or turning point which implies a fairly compressed period of time that has a high probability of leading to a disaster. DISASTER is defined as an extreme loss of something valuable.
•The Decision Makers (DM) requires a framework on a scientific footing to invent strategies – for coping up with various crisis situations in pursuit of meeting organizational objectives.
•A thorough understanding is needed - of possible crisis situations, how these may be avoided and how to manage crisis situations.
•Strategies should be chalked out to
–manage future Crisis situations (Crisis Stability/ Crisis Management)
–avoid Crisis situations (Crisis Avoidance)
–If Crisis leads to Disaster, how to manage disasters.
November 5, 2014
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GAMING for Inventing Robust Strategies

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•The Crisis Gaming Methodology - a framework for the DM to explore future situations and to create strategies on a rational basis.
•A form of laboratory
–to observe the activities of individuals or groups in simulated crisis.
–an opportunity to play out scenarios that sensitize participants to the opportunities and pitfalls inherent in critical, time urgent situations.
–address the organizational psychology of crisis management.
•When properly done, such games offer a close approximation to the stress and flow of events of a real world crisis, saturating the participants-often more than they anticipated or desired with policy conundrums and quick demands.
•Simulations, assuming that they engage politically seasoned participants become a sort of psychological stage. Together analyst and DM can identify and explore new strategies, intuition or technologies that may improve the quality of crisis management.
November 5, 2014
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CRISIS GAMING

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•Scenario based, free form gaming’s heuristic advantage however, it can scarcely deliver predictive results – assumed. It seems Pakistan’s military ruler General Yahya Khan took a crisis game on Kashmir conflict played in 1964 in USA as a predictor of reality and launched an offensive leading to 1965 Indo- Pak war – contrary to the game results, Pakistan lost the war.
•Free form gaming/Crisis Gaming offers comparative advantages in four basis areas :
–The study of poorly understood dynamic processes
–The study of poorly understood institutional interactions
–Allowing wider participation by those having different perspectives and competence
–To prepare players for future research, analysis and operational responsibilities
November 5, 2014
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CRISIS GAMING (Key Advantages)

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•Development of Scenarios: Scenario writing demands not only an understanding of today realities but an imaginative foray into tomorrow’s possibilities
•Actual Course of Play: The first hand decision making under stress can be experienced by DM with penalties for failures.
•Creative problem solving: Innovative responses come out from subconscious of DM that are of potential interests to understand the future crisis responses.
Offers a glimpse at the underlying principle of decisions making. Strategic decisions, especially made under the pressure of crisis are never truly objective.
Limiting or cutting off different perspectives of a poorly understood problem is usually a way of dealing badly with it later on. A key antidote is to generate many possible paths to the future by running frequently, inexperience and different informed studies of a problem.
Crisis Game is a means constituted with these ends in view.
November 5, 2014
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CRISIS GAMING (Key Advantages)

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•No predictive value
•Gaming can be worse than nothing at all because the wrong lessons are learnt.
•Lessons learnt from game may be refined into crisis formulae
•Replications of results is very difficult
•The variables of the game - size, time frame, level of stress - must be deliberately varied.
•Question of realism must be addressed. It is difficult to duplicate fully the stakes, stress and fatigue of a real crisis
•Rigged Game : the out come of a simulation might be predetermined.
November 5, 2014
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CRISIS GAMING (Limitations)

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CRAFITTI Will Co-Craft the Crisis Game – A Freeform, Seminar Game with your team – Design, Develop, Play, Analyze and develop Strategic Guidelines
November 5, 2014

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About Crafitti
November 5, 2014
CRAFITTI: Your Global Innovation and IP Think Tank
Crafitti offers active collaboration to craft ideas in multiple innovation contexts.

Confidential
www.crafitti.com
Crafitti Consulting Private Limited
November 5, 2014
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Crafting INNOVATION Together
•We co-craft end-customer value with every mind working with us by
–Enabling Emergence of NEW
–Maximizing the LIFE of EACH IDEA
–Empowering IDEAS
–Making Innovation Happen
–Future-proofing by creating Future insights and forecasts

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November 5, 2014
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Crafitti’s Framework for Innovation
1.EXPLORE SEE OBSERVE UNDERSTAND AND LIVE – Reach to the SOUL of a System
2. IDEATE INVOKE – ALVIS IN YOU – Analytical Logical Value Inventive and Systems Thinking
3. EMPOWER IDEAS CRAFT CHANGE – Connect, Relate, Allow, Follow-Up, Turn-Around

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An Integrated Approach – ALVIS THINKING
ALVIS Value Thinking (Minimize Waste – Maximize Value) Inventive Thinking
(Ideality – Functions – Resources) Systems Thinking (Holistic Approach – Exploring Complexity)
November 5, 2014
12 Analytical Thinking (Divide complex problems into multiple solvable problems ) Logical Thinking (Informal and Formal Reasoning)

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Crafitti Consulting: Background
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•INNOVATION RESEARCH AND CONSULTING in business, science and technology contexts
•Started in June 2008 and was incubated at the NSR Centre for Entrepreneurial Learning at IIM Bangalore
•Crafitti’s frameworks provide potent platforms to innovate in crafting strategies, breakthrough products, new services, technological alternatives, patent portfolios, process design and embedding successful change in organizations.

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November 5, 2014
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Thank You!
Navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com
+91 9902766961 CRAFTING NEW CHOICES – INNOVATION AND DECISIONS IN GLOBALIZING WORLD

Inventing strategies Using CRISIS GAMING

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