1. crafting innovation together
Navneet Bhushan
(navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com)
crafting innovation together
Crafitti Consulting (www.crafitti.com)
CAIR, DRDO, August 10, 2010
A visualization of the network structure of the Internet at the level of “autonomous systems”—local groups
of computers each representing hundreds or thousands of machines. Picture by Hal Burch and Bill Cheswick, courtesy of Lumeta
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Corporation. INTERNET
6. Globe has been Re-engineered!
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While the defining measurement of (old world)
was weight – … – the defining measurement of
the globalization system is speed – speed of
commerce, travel, communication and
innovation
Thomas L. Friedman, “The Lexus and Olive Tree”
Flattening World
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… And we don’t even realize it
…
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7. Technological Systems
Power System Information Technology
Violence Industrial Automation
Wealth crafting innovation together
Genomics
Knowledge Bio-Technology Organization Forms
Knowledge based Violence & Smart Materials Hierarchies shifting to
Wealth Nanotechnology Networked form of
Violence & Wealth based Propulsion Technology Organization
knowledge Hierarchical Networks
Networked Hierarchies
Geo Political System
Bipolarity/ Multi-polarity
Multinational Companies Economic System
Structure of Small more Networked
controlling the world
Reducing Value of Nation State
Future Organizations
World Rapid Changes in the way wealth
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is generated
Low tariff barriers
Social System Common Currencies and
Rise of the Individual/Ethnic/Religious compatible economic systems
groupings Low entry barriers
Nuclear/Single parent family system
Rise of dissatisfaction
SOURCE: Bhushan N. and Rai K., Strategic Decision Making, Springer Verlag, Jan 2004
Confidential
8. The Globalized World
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• Global Real-time Awareness
• Large monolithic structures to small, distributed well-
connected organizations –Collabtetion –
Collaboration+Competition
• Hierarchies – Hierarchical Networks – Networked
Hierarchies – Networks
• Power shifts to Knowledge Based Real-time Actors
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• Time, Trade, Space, Geography, Cultural, Language, Social
Shackles Demolished
• Survival of the Agile – Decision Making and Action at
Electronic Speed
• Everyone has the wherewithal to continuously Re-
invent oneself
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12. Complexity in a Flattening
World crafting innovation together
Rapid Explosion Human Processing Limits
of Complexity (The Magic Number 7 ± 2)
Framing Limits
Confidence
Connections create Value and Dependencies
Number of alternatives
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create complexity
Time pressure Future is approaching us Faster than History is
Need for analysis leaving us!
Information de-coherence Increasing distance between user requirements
Connections of what they really need versus what they want.
Networks With every choice we make today we Kill
many possible futures
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13. Decision Making in a
Flattening World crafting innovation together
Rapid Explosion Human Processing Limits
of Complexity (The Magic Number 7 ± 2)
Framing Limits
Confidence
Each Decision (a Choice) affects future
Number of alternatives
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Choices (decisions)
Time pressure Each Decision is impacted by past Decisions
Need for analysis (Choices) made by someone somewhere
Information de-coherence With every choice we make today we Kill
Connections many possible futures
Networks With every choice we make today we Select
only a small subset of possible futures
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14. The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two:
Some Limits on our Capacity for cProcessingi oInformation
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George A. Miller (1956)
Harvard University
First published in Psychological Review, 63, 81-97.
[1] This paper was first read as an Invited Address before the Eastern Psychological Association in Philadelphia on April 15, 1955.
The point seems to be that, as we add
more variables to the display, we
increase the total capacity, but we
decrease the accuracy for any
particular variable. In other words,
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we can make relatively crude
judgments of several things
simultaneously.
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23. Competitive Advantage- Over Ages
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How Fast
Co-Create
Extent of Connectedness
How Fast
Innovate
How much
Actionable
Knowledge
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How much and
Quickly can be
Informed
How much can
be produced
In the Connected Age –
How much of
Agricultural land Co-Creators will thrive
and Natural
Resources
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25. Nature
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is
Fractal!
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26. Black Swan – The impact of
the highly improbable
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• “I cannot accept a pretense of
science. I much prefer a
sophisticated craft, focused on
tricks, to a failed science looking
for certainties” Nassim Nicholas
Taleb
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29. Combat
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Fight/Duel/Conflict/Battle/War/World
War/Armageddon
Modelling
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Representing a system and its internal and/or external
dynamics in such a form (may be mathematical) that
information about its behaviour can be extracted or
studied
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30. Parameters and Processes of Combat
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• Two Sides • Command and
Control
• Search
• Damage
• Detection
Assessment
• Identification
• Strategic and
• Acquisition Tactical
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Movement
• Tracking
• Influence of
• Weapon Target Assignment Technology
• Weapon Aiming and Firing
• Attrition
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31. Nature of Combat and Combat Models
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Past : Numerical Strength is Combat Power/ Attrition
Based
Modelling: Lanchester Equations Based and Fire Power
Scores in QJMA
Present: Technology Based Platform-Centric Revolution
in Military Affairs
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Modelling: Weapon Power Scores in Extended Adaptive
Dynamic Model
Future: Network Centric Warfare
Modelling: Exploring New Models
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32. Approaches to Combat Modelling
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Analytical Methods Simulation
• Lanchester Equations • Combat
• Adaptive Dynamic Simulations
Model • Wargames
Firepower Scores New Approaches
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• QJMA • Cellular Automata
• WEI • Petri Nets
• Weapon Power Scores • Artificial Life
• Particle Swarm
Optimization
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42. Combat
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• Duels
• LOS Fire
• Attrition Based Warfare
• Numerical Strength
Important (the 3:1 Rule)
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To make a Brigade of 4000 troops ineffective, one
needs to destroy atleast 33% to 50% of its troops
using a Division of about 12000 troops
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43. Combat Models: Past
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• Coupled Differential Equations
incorporating the rate at which both sides
destroy each other’s numerical strengths
• Quantified Judgement Method of Analysis
based on Empirical Formulae developed
using Historical Combat Data of Past
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Wars (T.N. Dupuy)
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45. Influence of Technology on War/Combat
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Information Technology Telecom & Networking
C4ISR IW/EW/SEW Communications
PGMs ILSS NetWar/CyberWar
Mobile Comm
Knowledge Processing
Lethality
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Intelligence Analysis
Mass Destruction to
Tactical and Strategic
Selective/Precise &
Planning
Effective Destruction
Automated/Rapid Military
Decision Making
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46. COLLECT & CAPABILITY TO
PROCESS ABILITY TO DESTROY
PICK OUT c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r
BATTLEFIELD TARGETS WITH
TARGETS IN A
INFORMATION WITH PRECISION FROM
DYNAMIC BATTLE
SPEED AND GREATER RANGES
SCENARIO
ACCURACY
INTERACTION
ABILITY TO SEE / CHOOSE TARGETS BETTER
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INCREASES THE EFFECTIVENESS OF
PRECISION GUIDED MUNITIONS
HEART OF REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS
(RMA)
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48. Network Centric Warfare
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Network is the Computer
Fundamental Shift from Platform Centric
warfare to Network Centric Warfare
Characterized by:
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Very High Level of Shared Battlespace
Awareness
Shared Knowledge of Commanders Intent
Self-Sync, Speed of Command, and rapid lock-
out
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49. Network Centric Warfare:
Sources of Increased Combat Power
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Shared Battlespace Awareness
Increased Battlespace Awareness
Battlespace Expansion: Employment of
Weapons at Max Range
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Increased Survivability
Self-Synchronization of Forces
Reduced Collateral Damage
Virtual Collaboration: Moving Information not
people
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50. The Present
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Modelling and Analysis of
Advanced Technologies and
Combat Support Systems in
Combat between RMA Forces
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51. Combat
Evaluation of Weapon CSS Weights
Support System
Power Scores of Army, t o g e t h e r on AHP
based
(CSS)i n g i n n o v a t i o n
craft
Navy and Air Force Capability
Weapons Assessment
Force Strength Force Multiplier
Estimation of Evaluation related to CSS
Quantity of
Weapons
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Adaptive Estimation of
Generation of Dynamic Model
Combat Scenarios Model Parameters
Combat
METHODOLOGY Outcomes
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52. Weapon Power Score
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Self Integration
Operability
Lethality Protection Index
Index
Index
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On-Board On- Board Self Night / All Ability to get
Weapons Defence Weather connected to
Capability Capability Capability C3I System
Confidential Each Node in the Network
53. Weapon Power Score (WPS)
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= Operational Lethality Index (OLI) x (1+ Self-Protection Index (SPI)) x
(1 + Operability Index (OI)) x (1 + Integration Index (II))
Force Strength (FS)
= Summation of product of WPS and Quantity of weapons in a force
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Force Potential (FP)
= Force Strength x (1 + Combat Support System Effectiveness Factor)
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54. Factors considered for OLI Computations
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Weapons Factors
Infantry Small Arms Rate of Fire, Range, Accuracy, Reliability,
and Non Mobile and Potential Targets per Strike, Dispersion
Weapons Factor
Arty Towed/AD Guns All of the above and certain Artillery
related factors
Arty Self-Propelled All of the above and Mobility factors.
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OLI of on-board Guns and Missiles,
Armour, Ships, Mobility factor Punishment factor,
Submarines Ammunition factor, Amphibious
capability factor etc.,
Attack Helicopter, OLI of on-board Guns, Missiles, Ceiling
Aircraft factor Mobility factor,
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55. Factors Affecting SPI, OI and II of Army Platforms
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Weapon System Factors Affecting
SPI OI II
Infantry Survivability Night Vision, Communication Links
Transportability with Brigade. HQ. and
Built-in-Armor, RPV/UAV
Night Vision, All
Reactive Armor, Top
Armor Attack Protection NBC Weather Operations, Communication Links
Protection, Fire & fording, with RPV/UAV and other
Explosion Suppression, Amphibious Armor Vehicles.
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Silhouette, Agility Capability, Air
droppable
Shoot & Scoot
Artillery Guns Capability, Stand Off All weather Integration with AOP
Range, Armored Operability, NBC
Protection Operability.
AD Arty/ SAM Radar Control, NBC Integration with C2
Shoot & Scoot
Capability, Stand Off Environment system
Range
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56. Factors Affecting SPI, OI and II coff t iAirnforce tWeapons
ra ng in ovation ogether
Weapon System Factors Affecting
SPI OI II
Close Air Chaff, ECM,
Support / ESM, Multi Mode
Attack Helo Radar, Precision
Guided Munitions
Night Flight, Inter Aircraft
Night Time & Ground
Delivery, All Station
Deep Strike Weather
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All of the above Communicati
and Inertial Operation on
Navigation
System
All of the above
Air Defense and Look
Down/Look Up
Radar
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57. Factors Affecting SPI, OI and IIr aofi nNavalt iPlatforms
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Weapon System Factors Affecting
SPI OI II
Battle Ships Intensity of Communication
Threats faced, Links with Shore,
Ability to detect with Maritime
threatening Aircraft, with Sub
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Shallow
Platform, Marine force, with
Water/ High
Protection to other Ships.
Seas
Evade hit,
Operability
Protection to
Evade Kill given Communication Links
Submarine hit, Ability to with Shore, Maritime
Jam/Confuse Aircraft, Own
Enemy Platform Submarine force.
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58. Combat Support Systems (CSS)
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Intelligence Surveillance C4 Information Logistics
& Reconnaissance(ISR)
Warfare Support
System
Command and EW Infrastructure
Space based
Control Opsec Resources
Airborne
Communications Psyops Material
Sea Based
Computers Deception Management
• Ground Based
Lethal IW National
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System Integration
Non lethal IW Resources
Encryption Inter-service
SW Engg Integration
Networking
Computer
Security
Info Security
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64. Adaptive Dynamic Model (ADM)
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• Off shoot of Lanchester Models Extensions
• J.M. Epstein • Air to Air Combat
• Use of Exchange Ratio and • Naval Combat
Prosecution Rate including sub surface
• Parameters reflecting ability to • use of Weapon Power
Scores instead of
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concentrate fire in engagements
WEI for Force
• Uses Force strength instead of Strength
Numerical Strength
• Estimation of
• Withdrawal and reinforcements parameters based on
• Close Air Support to Ground Forces realistic data
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65. INPUT
• Initial Force Strengths
of the Forces
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• Force Strength
Reinforcement on each
day OUTPUT
• Force Strength Attrition
Force
Rate
Strength loss
• Exchange Ratio
Adaptive and Aircraft
• Threshold Attrition Attrition per
Rates
Dynamic
Model day
• Number of Close Air
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Support (CAS) Aircraft
• CAS daily Sortie rate
per Aircraft
• CAS aircraft Attrition
rate per sortie
• Battle termination
Conditions
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66. crafting innovation together
Equations of the Model :
A t A t 11 t 1 DCAS (t 1) RA t ,
g g g
t 1
D t D t 1 A t 1 ACAS (t 1) RD t ,
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g g t 1 g g
W(t)
(t ) (t ) 1 ,
g W
max
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67. crafting innovation together
0 if d (t 1) dT
W (t )
W (t 1) Wmax W (t 1) (t 1) if (t 1)
d
1 dT
dT d dT
D (t ) D (t 1) RD (t 1)
g
(t )
g g .
d D (t )
g
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We set W(1) = 0, on the attacker’s side
(t 1)
(t ) (t 1) T
g g
a
g
a
(t 1)
aT
aT
,
A (t 1) A (t 1) RA (t 1)
g
(t )
g g .
a A (t )
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68. crafting innovation together
We set g(1) equal to some initial value [g(1)
aT].
The ground-induced exchange ratio is given
by
D (t ) d
g
(t ) = ,
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0
A (t ) a
g
(8)
where 0 is a constant.
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69. crafting innovation together
Equations for Close Air Support (CAS)
aircraft:
a a
da
D (t ) = D (t 1) 1 S d RD (t ),
a
a a
aa
A (t ) = A (t 1) 1 S a RA (t ).
a
DCAS(t ) = a D (t ),
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a
a=
LK
d
da d
1 - 1 - S 1
1 ,
V
da
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70. crafting innovation together
ACAS (t ) = b A (t ),
a
S a 1
1-1-
L Ka aa
b= 1 .
V aa
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71. crafting innovation together
SIDE A SIDE B
Ground Forces Ground Forces
CAS Forces CAS Forces
AD Fighters
AD Fighters
AD Escorts
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AD Escorts
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72. crafting innovation together
Test Scenario – Country A Strike
Corps attacking Country B holding forces
Force with Force with
Country A Country B
1 Armoured 2 Infantry Division
Division
1 Independent 3 Independent
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Armoured Brigade Armoured Brigades
3 Infantry 1 Armoured
Divisions Regiment
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