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crafting innovation together




                                                                                            Navneet Bhushan
                                                                            (navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com)
crafting innovation together




                                                                       Crafitti Consulting (www.crafitti.com)

                                                                                                CAIR, DRDO, August 10, 2010



   A visualization of the network structure of the Internet at the level of “autonomous systems”—local groups
   of computers each representing hundreds or thousands of machines. Picture by Hal Burch and Bill Cheswick, courtesy of Lumeta
       Confidential
   Corporation.                INTERNET
crafting innovation together
crafting innovation together




                               Confidential   © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010   2
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crafting innovation together




                               Confidential   © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010   3
http://www.fastcodesign.com/1662020/eye-candy-solid-
                               vase-is-a-3-d-pic-of-splashing-milk
                                                                                     crafting innovation together
crafting innovation together




                                The Singaporean designer Fung Kwok Pan has managed to capture
                                the flow of water in solid form, and the results are stunning.
                               Confidential             © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010   4
crafting innovation together
crafting innovation together




                               Confidential   © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010   5
Globe has been Re-engineered!
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                                                         While the defining measurement of (old world)
                                                         was weight – … – the defining measurement of
                                                         the globalization system is speed – speed of
                                                         commerce, travel, communication and
                                                         innovation
                                                                Thomas L. Friedman, “The Lexus and Olive Tree”




                                                          Flattening World
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                                         … And we don’t even realize it
                                         …
                               Confidential
Technological Systems
                                 Power System                              Information Technology
                                 Violence                                  Industrial Automation
                                 Wealth                                                                crafting innovation together
                                                                           Genomics
                                 Knowledge                                 Bio-Technology                                   Organization Forms
                                 Knowledge based Violence &                Smart Materials                                  Hierarchies shifting to
                                 Wealth                                    Nanotechnology                                      Networked form of
                                 Violence & Wealth based                   Propulsion Technology                               Organization
                                 knowledge                                                                                  Hierarchical Networks
                                                                                                                            Networked Hierarchies



                                 Geo Political System
                                 Bipolarity/ Multi-polarity
                                 Multinational Companies                                                                  Economic System
                                                                                        Structure of                      Small more Networked
                                    controlling the world
                                 Reducing Value of Nation State
                                                                                        Future                               Organizations
                                                                                        World                             Rapid Changes in the way wealth
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                                                                                                                             is generated
                                                                                                                          Low tariff barriers
                                 Social System                                                                            Common Currencies and
                                 Rise of the Individual/Ethnic/Religious                                                     compatible economic systems
                                    groupings                                                                             Low entry barriers
                                 Nuclear/Single parent family system
                                 Rise of dissatisfaction



                                    SOURCE: Bhushan N. and Rai K., Strategic Decision Making, Springer Verlag, Jan 2004




                               Confidential
The Globalized World
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                                              •   Global Real-time Awareness

                                              •   Large monolithic structures to small, distributed well-
                                                  connected organizations –Collabtetion –
                                                  Collaboration+Competition


                                                   • Hierarchies – Hierarchical Networks – Networked
                                                     Hierarchies – Networks
                                                   • Power shifts to Knowledge Based Real-time Actors
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                                              •   Time, Trade, Space, Geography, Cultural, Language, Social
                                                  Shackles Demolished

                                                   • Survival of the Agile – Decision Making and Action at
                                                     Electronic Speed
                                                   • Everyone has the wherewithal to continuously Re-
                                                     invent oneself

                               Confidential
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As economic fortunes rise,
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   so does nationalism

                               Confidential   © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010   9
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                               Confidential   © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010   10
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                               Confidential   © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010   11
Complexity in a Flattening
                                                   World                    crafting innovation together


                                                  Rapid Explosion                  Human Processing Limits
                                                   of Complexity                   (The Magic Number 7 ± 2)
                                                                                        Framing Limits
                                                                                          Confidence



                                                               Connections create Value and Dependencies
                                    Number of alternatives
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                                                                create complexity
                                        Time pressure          Future is approaching us Faster than History is
                                       Need for analysis        leaving us!
                                   Information de-coherence    Increasing distance between user requirements
                                         Connections            of what they really need versus what they want.
                                          Networks             With every choice we make today we Kill
                                                                many possible futures

                               Confidential
Decision Making in a
                                                Flattening World           crafting innovation together


                                                  Rapid Explosion                 Human Processing Limits
                                                   of Complexity                  (The Magic Number 7 ± 2)
                                                                                       Framing Limits
                                                                                         Confidence



                                                                Each Decision (a Choice) affects future
                                    Number of alternatives
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                                                                 Choices (decisions)
                                        Time pressure           Each Decision is impacted by past Decisions
                                       Need for analysis         (Choices) made by someone somewhere
                                   Information de-coherence     With every choice we make today we Kill
                                         Connections             many possible futures
                                          Networks              With every choice we make today we Select
                                                                 only a small subset of possible futures

                               Confidential
The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two:
                                        Some Limits on our Capacity for cProcessingi oInformation
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                                                                                              George A. Miller (1956)
                                                                                                 Harvard University
                                                                                First published in Psychological Review, 63, 81-97.

                                              [1] This paper was first read as an Invited Address before the Eastern Psychological Association in Philadelphia on April 15, 1955.


                                                                                                                        The point seems to be that, as we add
                                                                                                                        more variables to the display, we
                                                                                                                        increase the total capacity, but we
                                                                                                                        decrease the accuracy for any
                                                                                                                        particular variable. In other words,
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                                                                                                                        we can make relatively crude
                                                                                                                        judgments of several things
                                                                                                                        simultaneously.




                               Confidential
The first decade of 20th Century…
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                               • In 1890, Average company in US
                                 had - FOUR employees (4)
                               • By 1901, US Steel became world’s
                                 first 1 Billion $ company
                               • Ford Motor Company, founded in
                                 1903, was producing half a million
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                                 cars a by 1913




                               Confidential          © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010   15
The first decade of 21st Century…
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                               Confidential                  © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010   16
More is Different – Scale is the New Frontier

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                               Confidential             © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010   17
SEI ULS Study – 2006!
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                               Confidential            © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010   18
Why we don’t know how to Design ULSS?
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                                          System Design - Present Approaches                                              ULS Characteristics
                                 All conflicts must be resolved centrally and uniformly                            Decentralized Control
                                 Requirements can be known in advance and change slowly.                           Inherently conflicting, unknowable,
                                 Tradeoff decisions will be stable.                                                and diverse requirements
                                 Discrete Time System improvements                                                 Continuous      evolution      and
                                 Effect of a change can be predicted sufficiently well.
                                 Configuration information
                                 Components and users are fairly homogeneous.
                                 People are just users of the system.
                                                                                                  ?                deployment
                                                                                                                   Heterogeneous, inconsistent,
                                                                                                                   changing elements
                                                                                                                                                  and
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                                                                                                                   Erosion of the people/system
                                 Collective behavior of people is not of interest.                                 boundary
                                 Social interactions are not relevant.
                                                                                                                   Normal Failures
                                 Failures will occur infrequently. Defects can be removed.
                                 A prime contractor is responsible for system development,                         New paradigms for acquisition and
                                 operation, and evolution.                                                         policy




                               Confidential                                   © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.               August 16, 2010      19
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                               Confidential                            © Crafitti Consulting Private
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                               Confidential   © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010   21
ULSS Research Areas
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                                   ULS Systems              Specific Sub-Areas
                                  Research Area
                                                                                                                        • Decentralized Production Management
                                                   • Context-Aware Assistive computing                    Adaptive      • View-Based Evolution
                                                   • Understanding Users and Their Contexts
                                                   • Modeling Users and User Communities
                                                                                                           System       • Evolutionary Configuration and
                               Human Interaction   • Fostering Non-Competitive Social                  Infrastructure   Deployment
                                                                                                                        • In Situ Control and Adaptation
                                                   Collaboration
                                                                                                                        • Robustness, Adaptation, and Quality
                                                   • Longevity
                                                                                                                        Attributes
                                                   • Algorithmic Mechanism Design
                                 Computational                                                                          • Scale and Composition of Quality
                                                   • Metaheuristics in Software Engineering
                                  Emergence                                                           Adaptable and     Attributes
                                                   • Digital Evolution
                                                                                                                        • Understanding People-Centric Quality
                                                   • Design of All Levels                               Predictable
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                                                                                                                        Attributes
                                                   • Design Spaces and Design rules
                                                                                                      System Quality    • Enforcing Quality Requirements
                                                   • Harnessing Economics to Promote Good
                                                                                                                        • Security, Trust, and Resiliency
                                                   Design
                                        Design     • Design Representation and Analysis
                                                                                                                        • Engineering Management at Ultra-
                                                                                                                        Large Scales
                                                   • Assimilation
                                                   •      Determining      and       Managing            Policy,
                                                                                                                        • Policy Definition for ULS Systems
                                                   Requirements                                        Acquisition,
                                                   • Expressive Representation Languages                                • Fast Acquisition for ULS Systems
                                                                                                          and           • Management of ULS Systems
                                                   • Scaled-Up Specification, Verification, and
                                 Computational                                                         Management
                                                   Certification
                                  Engineering      • Computational Engineering for Analysis
                                                   and Design
                               Confidential                                   © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.              August 16, 2010                 22
Competitive Advantage- Over Ages
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                                                                                                                                     How Fast
                                                                                                                                     Co-Create
                               Extent of Connectedness




                                                                                                                           How Fast
                                                                                                                           Innovate
                                                                                                              How much
                                                                                                              Actionable
                                                                                                              Knowledge
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                                                                                             How much and
                                                                                             Quickly can be
                                                                                               Informed
                                                                              How much can
                                                                               be produced
                                                                                                          In the Connected Age –
                                                           How much of
                                                          Agricultural land                                Co-Creators will thrive
                                                            and Natural
                                                             Resources


                                     Confidential                                   Time
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                               Confidential
Nature
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                                                 is
                                              Fractal!
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                               Confidential
Black Swan – The impact of
                                      the highly improbable
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   • “I cannot accept a pretense of
     science. I much prefer a
     sophisticated craft, focused on
     tricks, to a failed science looking
     for certainties” Nassim Nicholas
                               Taleb
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                               Confidential
A Weakening of Hierarchies
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                                 • Information abundance permits INDIVIDUALS to by-
                                   pass hierarchies that have – deliberately or
                                   inadvertently – controlled or limited information
                                 • Alternative human organization forms – based mainly
                                   on the Network have proved more effective and
                                   efficient for transacting information than hierarchies.
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                                 • In Information intensive enterprises, hierarchical
                                   organizations may not be competitive with networks.


                                 IN ATHENA’s CAMP – Preparing for conflict in the Information Age, (Ed)
                                 Arquilla J. and Ronfeldt D, RAND, 1997
                               Confidential                                                          © CRAFITTI CONSULTING
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                                                ONLY Networks
                                              CAN FIGHT Networks
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                               Confidential                                            ©
Combat
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                                              Fight/Duel/Conflict/Battle/War/World
                                              War/Armageddon


                                                                 Modelling
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                                              Representing a system and its internal and/or external
                                              dynamics in such a form (may be mathematical) that
                                              information about its behaviour can be extracted or
                                              studied



                               Confidential
Parameters and Processes of Combat
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                                              • Two Sides                                • Command and
                                                                                           Control
                                              • Search
                                                                                         • Damage
                                              • Detection
                                                                                           Assessment
                                              • Identification
                                                                                         • Strategic and
                                              • Acquisition                                Tactical
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                                                                                           Movement
                                              • Tracking
                                                                                         • Influence of
                                              • Weapon Target Assignment                   Technology
                                              • Weapon Aiming and Firing
                                              • Attrition
                               Confidential
Nature of Combat and Combat Models
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                                              Past : Numerical Strength is Combat Power/ Attrition
                                              Based
                                              Modelling: Lanchester Equations Based and Fire Power
                                              Scores in QJMA
                                              Present: Technology Based Platform-Centric Revolution
                                              in Military Affairs
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                                              Modelling: Weapon Power Scores in Extended Adaptive
                                              Dynamic Model
                                              Future: Network Centric Warfare
                                              Modelling: Exploring New Models

                               Confidential
Approaches to Combat Modelling
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                                              Analytical Methods                        Simulation
                                              • Lanchester Equations                    • Combat
                                              • Adaptive Dynamic                          Simulations
                                                Model                                   • Wargames

                                      Firepower Scores                           New Approaches
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                                      • QJMA                                     • Cellular Automata
                                      • WEI                                      • Petri Nets
                                      • Weapon Power Scores                      • Artificial Life
                                                                                 • Particle Swarm
                                                                                   Optimization
                               Confidential
Rand Report MG 268 (http://www.rand.org)

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                               More than 12000 Sorties flown in mid
                               1990s to compare JTIDS datalink 16
                               system with conventional voice only
                               communications
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                                     250%
                                IMPROVEMENT
                                  IN Kill Ratio

                                Confidential                   © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010   33
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                               Confidential   © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010   34
Performance Evaluation of an Air Defence System
                                         (Networked) Modelled as a Petri Net (1998)
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                                                                                                                                                                                              TL3
                                                                                          dar
                                                                                    rne ra                                  raft
                                                     r                         Airbo                                 y Airc
                                              e rada                                                             Enem
                                         Mobil
                                                                                                                                                                                                    AD3
                                                                                        A CC1
Radar                                                                                                                                                                               AD2
                                                                                                SFP2
                                                                                                                        ER R                                  AD1
                                                         (SFP)                                                    B
                                                                                                                  B OR D E
                                                                                                                    OR D                      Delay
                                                                                                                                                                                       CAOC
                                                                                                                                                                                                               CAOC
                                                  n Post
                                           r Fusio                                                     A CC2
                                      Senso                                                                                                         l         CAOC
                                                                                                                                              Arriva                                                 ACC
                                                                  tion
                                                            Opera
                                                     al Air                                                                                        ation
                                                Centr e (CAOC)                                                                               Penetr                            ACC
                                                                                                                SFP3
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                                                   Centr

                                                                                                                                                   ponse      ACC
                                                                             SA M                       SAM                                  No res
                                                ON    T RO L                  OP                         Site
                                           AIR C TRE                                                                                                    r
                                              CE N )                         Centr
                                                                                   el                                                             Fighte
                                                (ACC
                                                                                                                                                      SAM
                                                                                  TER
                                                                             FIGH ON                                                                    Gun
                                                                                  DR                   r
                                                                            SQ U A N T R E       Fighte                                                                       TR1
                                                                            OP C
                                                                                  E                   ron
                                                                                                 Squad                                                                                               TR2
                                         AD
                                    SHOR ION
                                        AT
                                   OPER RE                                    efence
                                     CE N T                              Air D s                                                                                                       TL3
                                                                             Gun




                                 Confidential                                                                   © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.                   August 16, 2010                      35
Time Transition Petri Net Model of an AD
                                                         System
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                                                                                                                            Stop Arrival
                                                      Delay              Delay                Start


                                                                                                      Arrival


                                                       Arrivals                                                                                  300 .
                                                                                                       Threats                          Limit

                                                                          Undetected                                 Detected
                                                                  Back                                                  Sensor             TX1
                                                                                       Undetected                                                            SFP

                                                                                              No response                       Gone1                          TX2
                                               Penetrations
                                                                  Penetration
                                                                                                             Gone2
                                                                                                                                                             CAOC
                                                                                                                         ACC
                                                                                                NP
                                                                                                                Plane
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                                                                                                      Sqdn                                                           TR
                                                                   Pres                                                                    ACC
                                              Fighter Plane                                                                                         TL
                                                                                                NS                                                                           ACCR
                                                                                                       SAM
                                                                                                 SAMOC
                                                                          Sres
                                                   SAM                                                                                           ACCL
                                                                                       NG

                                                                         Gres                                 Gun
                                                     Gun

                                                                                            SHORADOC                                                     Transition with exponential firing
                                                                                                                                                         Transition with determinstic firing




                                                                                Fig. 3 : TTPN Model of an AD System

                               Confidential                                                    © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.                                             August 16, 2010   36
Penetration Probability Vs Arrival Rate
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                               Confidential                     © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010   37
Application- Simulation of Terrorist Networks and Evaluation
                                                         of Strategies
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                               Confidential
Destabilization Strategies
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                                Each strategy identifies actor criticality in a different way. All strategies rely on data in one
                                   or more cells in the meta-matrix. The identified strategies are:
                                • Highest degree centrality: Isolate one agent from the covert network that has the
                                   highest degree centrality [20].
                                • Highest betweenness centrality: Isolate one agent from the covert network that has
                                   the highest betweenness centrality [20].
                                • Highest cognitive load: Isolate one agent from the covert network that has the highest
                                   cognitive load [6], where cognitive load is computed as a linear combination of:
                                         –    Number of people person i interacts with / total number of people in the group;
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                                         –    Number of subtasks person i is assigned to / total number of subtasks;
                                         –    Sum of number of people who do the same tasks person i does / (total number of tasks * total number of people);
                                         –    Sum of negotiation needs person i needs to do for each task / total possible negotiations, where a negotiation corresponds
                                              to the amount of information or resources that an agent needs to complete a subtask that it is assigned to, but doesn't
                                              have (and thus has to obtain from another agent by negotiation).

                                •     Highest task accuracy: Isolate the best performing agent in the organization. This
                                      corresponds to standard police practice of arresting agents implicated in commission
                                      of a terrorist act.
                                •     Amount of unique knowledge: Isolate the agent that has the highest expertise.

                               Confidential                                                       39                                                                  ©
NetWatch: A Multi-Agent Network Model of Covert
                                       Network Surveillance and Destabilization
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                               •     Random case consisted of random removal strategy combined with one of the three wiretapping strategies.
                                     The baseline increases with accuracy of network discovery because of the fact that learning more of the
                                     network gives the random strategy better access to targets (including these of high importance). In the absence
                                     of false positives, the baseline strategies perform better then many complex heuristics.
                               •     Degree Centrality-based removal of agents performs well only with targeted wiretapping. This is because
                                     targeted wiretapping allows the Blue Team to completely discover a cell and all of its neighborhood, and thus
                                     be very confident in removal of a most central person. However, the network does recover reasonably quickly
                                     from the hit, thus decreasing the effectiveness of this strategy.
                               •     Betweenness Centrality-based removal performs well with roving wiretaps - because of the fact that they allow
                                     quick location of key gatekeepers in the network.
                               •     Cognitive Load-based removal requires significant knowledge of the network, and thus only performs well
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                                     under targeted and roving wiretap strategies.
                               •     Quite surprisingly, removal of Well-Performing individuals did not result in significant damage to the terrorist
                                     network. Most likely this is caused by the structure of the tasks that the agents perform and equivalence of
                                     individuals in equivalent network positions.
                               •     Knowledge-based removal proved to be the most effective strategy of the lot, and the only one to outperform
                                     the baseline strategies. The key to knowledge-based removal, though, is that its effectiveness hinges on speed
                                     of response more than the accuracy of structural knowledge. The experiments show that the highest efficiency
                                     of this strategy is achieved if Red Team experts are found and removed before they transmit much of their
                                     knowledge to the rest of the group, thus favoring quick decisive action to lengthy deliberation and heuristic
                                     learning that are characteristic of roving wiretaps.


                               Confidential                                              40                                                        ©
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                                              The Past
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                               Confidential
Combat
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                                                       • Duels
                                                       • LOS Fire
                                                       • Attrition Based Warfare
                                                       • Numerical Strength
                                                         Important (the 3:1 Rule)
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                                              To make a Brigade of 4000 troops ineffective, one
                                              needs to destroy atleast 33% to 50% of its troops
                                                   using a Division of about 12000 troops



                               Confidential
Combat Models: Past
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                                              • Coupled Differential Equations
                                                incorporating the rate at which both sides
                                                destroy each other’s numerical strengths
                                              • Quantified Judgement Method of Analysis
                                                based on Empirical Formulae developed
                                                using Historical Combat Data of Past
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                                                Wars (T.N. Dupuy)




                               Confidential
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                                              The Present
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                               Confidential
Influence of Technology on War/Combat
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                                              Information Technology      Telecom & Networking
                                              C4ISR       IW/EW/SEW       Communications
                                              PGMs        ILSS            NetWar/CyberWar
                                                                          Mobile Comm
                                              Knowledge Processing
                                                                             Lethality
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                                              Intelligence Analysis
                                                                             Mass Destruction to
                                              Tactical and Strategic
                                                                             Selective/Precise &
                                              Planning
                                                                             Effective Destruction
                                              Automated/Rapid Military
                                              Decision Making

                               Confidential
COLLECT &            CAPABILITY TO
                                     PROCESS                                           ABILITY TO DESTROY
                                                            PICK OUT c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r
                                   BATTLEFIELD                                                TARGETS WITH
                                                          TARGETS IN A
                                INFORMATION WITH                                            PRECISION FROM
                                                        DYNAMIC BATTLE
                                    SPEED AND                                              GREATER RANGES
                                                           SCENARIO
                                    ACCURACY




                                                            INTERACTION

                                              ABILITY TO SEE / CHOOSE TARGETS BETTER
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                                                 INCREASES THE EFFECTIVENESS OF

                                                   PRECISION GUIDED MUNITIONS


                                       HEART OF REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS
                                                       (RMA)
                               Confidential
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                                              The Future
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                               Confidential
Network Centric Warfare
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                                                     Network is the Computer

                                               Fundamental Shift from Platform Centric
                                                 warfare to Network Centric Warfare

                                                           Characterized by:
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                                                 Very High Level of Shared Battlespace
                                                             Awareness
                                                Shared Knowledge of Commanders Intent
                                              Self-Sync, Speed of Command, and rapid lock-
                                                                   out

                               Confidential
Network Centric Warfare:
                                              Sources of Increased Combat Power
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                                                      Shared Battlespace Awareness
                                                    Increased Battlespace Awareness
                                                 Battlespace Expansion: Employment of
                                                         Weapons at Max Range
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                                                         Increased Survivability
                                                      Self-Synchronization of Forces
                                                       Reduced Collateral Damage
                                              Virtual Collaboration: Moving Information not
                                                                  people
                               Confidential
The Present
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                                                Modelling and Analysis of
                                               Advanced Technologies and
                                               Combat Support Systems in
                                              Combat between RMA Forces
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                               Confidential
Combat
                                              Evaluation of Weapon                                                  CSS Weights
                                                                       Support System
                                              Power Scores of Army,                                         t o g e t h e r on AHP
                                                                                                                  based
                                                                           (CSS)i n g i n n o v a t i o n
                                                                             craft
                                              Navy and Air Force         Capability
                                              Weapons                    Assessment


                                                                      Force Strength               Force Multiplier
                                                    Estimation of     Evaluation                   related to CSS
                                                     Quantity of
                                                      Weapons
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                                                                              Adaptive                      Estimation of
                                                   Generation of              Dynamic                       Model
                                                  Combat Scenarios             Model                        Parameters



                                                                                Combat
                                METHODOLOGY                                    Outcomes

                               Confidential
Weapon Power Score
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                                                             Self                                Integration
                                                                         Operability
                                         Lethality        Protection                                Index
                                                                           Index
                                                            Index
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                                       On-Board         On- Board Self     Night / All            Ability to get
                                       Weapons             Defence          Weather               connected to
                                       Capability        Capability        Capability              C3I System


                               Confidential          Each Node in the Network
Weapon Power Score (WPS)
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                                 = Operational Lethality Index (OLI) x (1+ Self-Protection Index (SPI)) x
                                 (1 + Operability Index (OI)) x (1 + Integration Index (II))


                                                        Force Strength (FS)

                                 = Summation of product of WPS and Quantity of weapons in a force
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                                                        Force Potential (FP)

                                  = Force Strength x (1 + Combat Support System Effectiveness Factor)




                               Confidential
Factors considered for OLI Computations
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                                                      Weapons                           Factors
                                              Infantry Small Arms      Rate of Fire, Range, Accuracy, Reliability,
                                              and Non Mobile           and Potential Targets per Strike, Dispersion
                                              Weapons                  Factor

                                              Arty Towed/AD Guns       All of the above and certain Artillery
                                                                       related factors

                                              Arty Self-Propelled      All of the above and Mobility factors.
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                                                                       OLI of on-board Guns and Missiles,
                                              Armour, Ships,           Mobility factor Punishment factor,
                                              Submarines               Ammunition factor, Amphibious
                                                                       capability factor etc.,

                                              Attack Helicopter,      OLI of on-board Guns, Missiles, Ceiling
                                              Aircraft                factor Mobility factor,

                               Confidential
Factors Affecting SPI, OI and II of Army Platforms
                                                                                             crafting innovation together


                                              Weapon System                                     Factors Affecting
                                                                          SPI                    OI                  II

                                                Infantry       Survivability            Night Vision,       Communication Links
                                                                                        Transportability    with Brigade. HQ. and
                                                               Built-in-Armor,                              RPV/UAV
                                                                                        Night Vision, All
                                                               Reactive Armor, Top
                                                 Armor         Attack Protection NBC    Weather Operations, Communication Links
                                                               Protection, Fire &       fording,            with RPV/UAV and other
                                                               Explosion Suppression,   Amphibious          Armor Vehicles.
crafting innovation together




                                                               Silhouette, Agility      Capability, Air
                                                                                        droppable

                                                               Shoot & Scoot
                                              Artillery Guns   Capability, Stand Off All weather            Integration with AOP
                                                               Range, Armored        Operability, NBC
                                                               Protection            Operability.
                                          AD Arty/ SAM                               Radar Control, NBC     Integration with C2
                                                               Shoot & Scoot
                                                               Capability, Stand Off Environment            system
                                                               Range
                               Confidential
Factors Affecting SPI, OI and II coff t iAirnforce tWeapons
                                                                            ra     ng in ovation ogether


                                              Weapon System                          Factors Affecting
                                                                       SPI           OI                  II

                                        Close Air             Chaff, ECM,
                                        Support /             ESM, Multi Mode
                                        Attack Helo           Radar, Precision
                                                              Guided Munitions
                                                                                 Night Flight,     Inter Aircraft
                                                                                 Night Time        & Ground
                                                                                 Delivery, All     Station
                                        Deep Strike                              Weather
crafting innovation together




                                                              All of the above                     Communicati
                                                              and Inertial       Operation         on
                                                              Navigation
                                                              System

                                                              All of the above
                                        Air Defense           and Look
                                                              Down/Look Up
                                                              Radar


                               Confidential
Factors Affecting SPI, OI and IIr aofi nNavalt iPlatforms
                                                                             c ft g innova on together




                                                Weapon System                           Factors Affecting

                                                                          SPI            OI                 II


                                              Battle Ships      Intensity of                       Communication
                                                                Threats faced,                     Links with Shore,
                                                                Ability to detect                  with Maritime
                                                                threatening                        Aircraft, with Sub
crafting innovation together




                                                                                    Shallow
                                                                Platform,                          Marine force, with
                                                                                    Water/ High
                                                                Protection to                      other Ships.
                                                                                    Seas
                                                                Evade hit,
                                                                                    Operability
                                                                Protection to
                                                                Evade Kill given                  Communication Links
                                               Submarine        hit, Ability to                   with Shore, Maritime
                                                                Jam/Confuse                       Aircraft, Own
                                                                Enemy Platform                    Submarine force.



                               Confidential
Combat Support Systems (CSS)
                                                                                crafting innovation together


                                 Intelligence Surveillance        C4          Information          Logistics
                                 & Reconnaissance(ISR)
                                                                              Warfare              Support
                                                                                                   System

                                                     Command and          EW                    Infrastructure
                               Space based
                                                      Control              Opsec                 Resources
                               Airborne
                                                     Communications       Psyops                Material
                               Sea Based
                                                     Computers            Deception              Management
                               • Ground Based
                                                                           Lethal IW             National
crafting innovation together




                                                     System Integration
                                                                           Non lethal IW          Resources
                                                                           Encryption            Inter-service
                                                                           SW Engg                Integration
                                                                           Networking
                                                                           Computer
                                                                            Security
                                                                           Info Security


                               Confidential
crafting innovation together




                                                      IW
                                               ISR
                                                                                                  C4
                                              Space
                                                                                      Cmd & Control


                                              Air
                                                                                      Communications


                                              Sea
                                                                                      Computers
crafting innovation together




                                              Gnd
                                                                                      System Integration



                                                      ILSS




                               Confidential                  © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010   59
crafting innovation together
                                                                   I1   I2   I3    I4     C1      C2      C3     C4    W   L
                                         Space based ISR (I1)      1    1    1     1      1       0       0      0     1   1
                                         Airborne ISR (I2)         0    1    1     1      1       0       0      0     1   1
                                 ISR     Sea based ISR (I3)        0    0    1     0      1       0       0      0     1   1
                                         Gnd based ISR (I4)        0    1    1     1      1       0       0      0     1   1
                                         Cmd and Control (C1)      0    0    0     0      1       0       0      0     1   0
                                 C4      Communications (C2)       1    1    1     1      1       1       1      1     1   1
                                         Computers (C3)            1    1    1     1      1       1       1      1     1   1
                                         System Integration (C4)   1    1    1     1      1       1       1      1     1   1
                                         IW (W)                    1    1    1     1      1       1       1      1     1   1
                                         ILSS (L)                  0    0    0     0      1       0       0      1     0   1


                                                                   I1   I2   I3    I4     C1      C2     C3      C4    W   L
                                         Space based ISR (I1)      1    0    0     0      0       1      1       1     1   0
crafting innovation together




                                         Air ISR (I2)              1    1    0     1      0       1      1       1     1   0
                                 ISR     Sea based ISR (I3)        1    1    1     1      0       1      1       1     1   0
                                         Gnd based ISR (I4)        1    1    0     1      0       1      1       1     1   0
                                         Cmd and Control (C1)      1    1    1     1      1       1      1       1     1   1
                                 C4      Communications (C2)       0    0    0     0      0       1      1       1     1   0
                                         Computers (C3)            0    0    0     0      0       1      1       1     1   0
                                         System Integration (C4)   0    0    0     0      0       1      1       1     1   1
                                         IW (W)                    1    1    1     1      1       1      1       1     1   0
                                         ILSS (L)                  1    1    1     1      0       1      1       1     1   1




                               Confidential                                       © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010   60
crafting innovation together



                                              Combat      Combat       Combat        Sub System                  CSS Normalised     Order of
                                              Support     Support      Synergy      Activity Index               Weights            Ranking
                                              Systems     System       Indices      Ai =(Di) X (Si)                   (Wi)
                                                        Dependency       (Si)
                                                        Indices (Di)
                                      Space based ISR      0.064        0.083            0.00531                     0.0598            VIII
                                      Air based ISR        0.096        0.070             0.672                      0.0757             IV
                                      Sea based ISR        0.115        0.047            0.00541                     0.0609             VI
                                      Gnd based ISR        0.096        0.070            0.00672                     0.0757             IV
                                      Cmd and Control      0.165        0.033            0.00545                     0.0614              V
                                      Communications       0.054        0.165            0.00891                     0.1004             III
crafting innovation together




                                      Computers            0.054        0.165            0.00891                     0.1004             III
                                      System               0.076        0.165            0.01254                     0.1413              II
                                      Integration
                                      IW                   0.142        0.165            0.2343                      0.2639             I
                                      ILSS                 0.138        0.039            0.00538                     0.0606            VII




                               Confidential                                 © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.                    August 16, 2010   61
crafting innovation together




                                              ISR             C4

                                       Space Based    Command and Control                          IW                   ILSS
                                       Air Based      Communications
                                       Sea Based      Computers
                                       Ground Based   System Integration
crafting innovation together




                                      Country A                  Country B                                       Country C




                               Confidential                   © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.            August 16, 2010    62
crafting innovation together
                                                             CSS                                     Factors
                                                       Space based ISR   Communications Satellites, Navigation Satellites,
                                                                         Meterological Satellites, Imaging Reconnaissance Satellites,
                                                                         Relay Satellites
                                                       Air baser ISR     AWACS/AEW, Air based Ground Tactical Reconnaissance,
                                                                         Maritime Reconnaissance, Airborne Ground Strategic
                                              ISR                        Reconnaissance, Airborne Battlefield Surveillance Capability
                                                                         (UAV/RPV capability)
                                                       Sea based ISR     Surface Tactical Recce, Sub-surface Tactical Recce, Strategic
                                                                         Recce, Coast based Strategic Recce
                                                       Ground based      Tactical Recce, Air Space Recce, Strategic Recce
                                                       ISR
                                                       Command and       Strategic C2, Tactical C2, Politics Military C2, Inter Services
                                                       Control           Integration
crafting innovation together




                                                       Communications    Utilization of EM Spectrum, Communication System,
                                                                         Communication Security, Merger with National Telecom
                                                                         System
                                              C4       Computers         Computing Power, Software capability, Knowledge
                                                                         processing and Automated Decision Making Capability
                                                       System            Data Fusion, National Level Interoperability, Inter Services
                                                       Integration       Operability, Integration of ISR, C2, ILSS with Lethal
                                                                         System, Fault Tolerant Communication / Computing,
                                                                         Interoperability Standards
                                              Information Warfare (IW)   Operations Security, Psychological Operations, EW,
                                                                         Deception Lethal IW, Non Lethal IW, Cryptology, Computer
                                                                         Security, Info Security, Intelligence
                                              ILSS                       Armed Forces Resources, Logistics Infrastructure, Material
                                                                         Management, National Resources, Inter Service Integration
                               Confidential                                    © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.              August 16, 2010   63
Adaptive Dynamic Model (ADM)
                                                                           crafting innovation together




                                    • Off shoot of Lanchester Models                         Extensions

                                    • J.M. Epstein                                  • Air to Air Combat

                                    • Use of Exchange Ratio and                     • Naval Combat
                                      Prosecution Rate                                including sub surface

                                    • Parameters reflecting ability to              • use of Weapon Power
                                                                                      Scores instead of
crafting innovation together




                                      concentrate fire in engagements
                                                                                      WEI for Force
                                    • Uses Force strength instead of                  Strength
                                      Numerical Strength
                                                                                    • Estimation of
                                    • Withdrawal and reinforcements                   parameters based on
                                    • Close Air Support to Ground Forces              realistic data



                               Confidential
INPUT
                                         • Initial Force Strengths
                                           of the Forces
                                                                             crafting innovation together
                                         • Force Strength
                                           Reinforcement on each
                                           day                                            OUTPUT
                                         • Force Strength Attrition
                                                                                            Force
                                           Rate
                                                                                         Strength loss
                                         • Exchange Ratio
                                                                      Adaptive           and Aircraft
                                         • Threshold Attrition                           Attrition per
                                           Rates
                                                                      Dynamic
                                                                       Model                 day
                                         • Number of Close Air
crafting innovation together




                                           Support (CAS) Aircraft
                                         • CAS daily Sortie rate
                                           per Aircraft
                                         • CAS aircraft Attrition
                                           rate per sortie
                                         • Battle termination
                                           Conditions


                               Confidential
crafting innovation together



                                              Equations of the Model :

                                              A t   A t  11   t  1  DCAS (t  1)  RA t ,
                                               g        g                                          g


                                                                    t  1
                                              D t   D t  1            A t  1  ACAS (t  1)  RD t ,
crafting innovation together




                                               g        g           t  1 g                            g

                                                                        W(t) 
                                                     (t )   (t ) 1       ,
                                                              g  W           
                                                                         max 


                               Confidential
crafting innovation together

                                           0                                                     if  d (t  1)   dT
                                  W (t )  
                                           W (t  1)   Wmax  W (t  1)   (t  1)    if  (t  1)  
                                                        
                                                                           d
                                                                           
                                           
                                                           1   dT      
                                                                                           dT     d              dT




                                                          D (t )   D (t  1)  RD (t  1)
                                                                    g                     
                                                  (t ) 
                                                           g                      g       .
                                                  d                    D (t )
                                                                          g
crafting innovation together




                                                    We set W(1) = 0, on the attacker’s side
                                                                           (t  1) 
                                                  (t )   (t  1)   T
                                                  g        g          
                                                                         a
                                                                           
                                                                              g
                                                                                        a
                                                                                               
                                                                                         (t  1)  
                                                                                                       aT
                                                                                                                     
                                                                            aT        
                                                 ,

                                                        A (t  1)   A (t  1)  RA (t  1)
                                                                     g                     
                                                (t ) 
                                                         g                         g       .
                                                a                      A (t )
                               Confidential                              g
crafting innovation together



                                              We set g(1) equal to some initial value [g(1)
                                               aT].

                                              The ground-induced exchange ratio is given
                                              by
                                                                    
                                                            D (t )  d
                                                            g 
                                                (t ) =              ,
crafting innovation together




                                                         0            
                                                           A (t )  a
                                                            g 
                                                                   
                                                           (8)


                                              where 0 is a constant.




                               Confidential
crafting innovation together
                                              Equations for Close Air Support (CAS)
                                              aircraft:

                                               a        a
                                                                     da
                                                                         
                                              D (t ) = D (t  1) 1   S d  RD (t ),
                                                                               a


                                               a        a
                                                                     aa
                                                                         
                                              A (t ) = A (t  1) 1   S a  RA (t ).
                                                                               a

                                              DCAS(t ) = a D (t ),
crafting innovation together




                                                            a


                                              a=
                                                 LK
                                                  d 
                                                              da d
                                                                     
                                                    1 - 1 -  S  1 
                                                                     1 ,
                                                 V                   
                                                    
                                                               da     
                                                                       



                               Confidential
crafting innovation together




                                              ACAS (t ) = b A (t ),
                                                             a


                                                                       S a 1 
                                                                               
                                                            
                                                                      
                                                           1-1-             
                                                   L Ka          aa          
                                              b=                             1 .
                                                     V            aa          
crafting innovation together




                                                                               
                                                                               
                                                                               




                               Confidential
crafting innovation together

                                                SIDE A             SIDE B

                                              Ground Forces    Ground Forces

                                              CAS Forces         CAS Forces
                                              AD Fighters
                                                                 AD Fighters
                                              AD Escorts
crafting innovation together




                                                                  AD Escorts




                               Confidential
crafting innovation together
                                               Test Scenario – Country A Strike
                                              Corps attacking Country B holding forces



                                                 Force with           Force with
                                                 Country A            Country B
                                                 1 Armoured           2 Infantry Division
                                                 Division
                                                 1 Independent        3 Independent
crafting innovation together




                                                 Armoured Brigade     Armoured Brigades
                                                 3 Infantry           1 Armoured
                                                 Divisions            Regiment




                               Confidential
Nco Role In Battlefield Management
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Nco Role In Battlefield Management

  • 1. crafting innovation together Navneet Bhushan (navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com) crafting innovation together Crafitti Consulting (www.crafitti.com) CAIR, DRDO, August 10, 2010 A visualization of the network structure of the Internet at the level of “autonomous systems”—local groups of computers each representing hundreds or thousands of machines. Picture by Hal Burch and Bill Cheswick, courtesy of Lumeta Confidential Corporation. INTERNET
  • 2. crafting innovation together crafting innovation together Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 2
  • 3. crafting innovation together crafting innovation together Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 3
  • 4. http://www.fastcodesign.com/1662020/eye-candy-solid- vase-is-a-3-d-pic-of-splashing-milk crafting innovation together crafting innovation together The Singaporean designer Fung Kwok Pan has managed to capture the flow of water in solid form, and the results are stunning. Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 4
  • 5. crafting innovation together crafting innovation together Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 5
  • 6. Globe has been Re-engineered! crafting innovation together While the defining measurement of (old world) was weight – … – the defining measurement of the globalization system is speed – speed of commerce, travel, communication and innovation Thomas L. Friedman, “The Lexus and Olive Tree” Flattening World crafting innovation together … And we don’t even realize it … Confidential
  • 7. Technological Systems Power System Information Technology Violence Industrial Automation Wealth crafting innovation together Genomics Knowledge Bio-Technology Organization Forms Knowledge based Violence & Smart Materials Hierarchies shifting to Wealth Nanotechnology Networked form of Violence & Wealth based Propulsion Technology Organization knowledge Hierarchical Networks Networked Hierarchies Geo Political System Bipolarity/ Multi-polarity Multinational Companies Economic System Structure of Small more Networked controlling the world Reducing Value of Nation State Future Organizations World Rapid Changes in the way wealth crafting innovation together is generated Low tariff barriers Social System Common Currencies and Rise of the Individual/Ethnic/Religious compatible economic systems groupings Low entry barriers Nuclear/Single parent family system Rise of dissatisfaction SOURCE: Bhushan N. and Rai K., Strategic Decision Making, Springer Verlag, Jan 2004 Confidential
  • 8. The Globalized World crafting innovation together • Global Real-time Awareness • Large monolithic structures to small, distributed well- connected organizations –Collabtetion – Collaboration+Competition • Hierarchies – Hierarchical Networks – Networked Hierarchies – Networks • Power shifts to Knowledge Based Real-time Actors crafting innovation together • Time, Trade, Space, Geography, Cultural, Language, Social Shackles Demolished • Survival of the Agile – Decision Making and Action at Electronic Speed • Everyone has the wherewithal to continuously Re- invent oneself Confidential
  • 9. crafting innovation together As economic fortunes rise, crafting innovation together so does nationalism Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 9
  • 10. crafting innovation together crafting innovation together Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 10
  • 11. crafting innovation together crafting innovation together Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 11
  • 12. Complexity in a Flattening World crafting innovation together Rapid Explosion Human Processing Limits of Complexity (The Magic Number 7 ± 2) Framing Limits Confidence  Connections create Value and Dependencies Number of alternatives crafting innovation together create complexity Time pressure  Future is approaching us Faster than History is Need for analysis leaving us! Information de-coherence  Increasing distance between user requirements Connections of what they really need versus what they want. Networks  With every choice we make today we Kill many possible futures Confidential
  • 13. Decision Making in a Flattening World crafting innovation together Rapid Explosion Human Processing Limits of Complexity (The Magic Number 7 ± 2) Framing Limits Confidence  Each Decision (a Choice) affects future Number of alternatives crafting innovation together Choices (decisions) Time pressure  Each Decision is impacted by past Decisions Need for analysis (Choices) made by someone somewhere Information de-coherence  With every choice we make today we Kill Connections many possible futures Networks  With every choice we make today we Select only a small subset of possible futures Confidential
  • 14. The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on our Capacity for cProcessingi oInformation rafting innovat n together George A. Miller (1956) Harvard University First published in Psychological Review, 63, 81-97. [1] This paper was first read as an Invited Address before the Eastern Psychological Association in Philadelphia on April 15, 1955. The point seems to be that, as we add more variables to the display, we increase the total capacity, but we decrease the accuracy for any particular variable. In other words, crafting innovation together we can make relatively crude judgments of several things simultaneously. Confidential
  • 15. The first decade of 20th Century… crafting innovation together • In 1890, Average company in US had - FOUR employees (4) • By 1901, US Steel became world’s first 1 Billion $ company • Ford Motor Company, founded in 1903, was producing half a million crafting innovation together cars a by 1913 Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 15
  • 16. The first decade of 21st Century… crafting innovation together crafting innovation together Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 16
  • 17. More is Different – Scale is the New Frontier crafting innovation together crafting innovation together Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 17
  • 18. SEI ULS Study – 2006! crafting innovation together crafting innovation together Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 18
  • 19. Why we don’t know how to Design ULSS? crafting innovation together System Design - Present Approaches ULS Characteristics All conflicts must be resolved centrally and uniformly Decentralized Control Requirements can be known in advance and change slowly. Inherently conflicting, unknowable, Tradeoff decisions will be stable. and diverse requirements Discrete Time System improvements Continuous evolution and Effect of a change can be predicted sufficiently well. Configuration information Components and users are fairly homogeneous. People are just users of the system. ? deployment Heterogeneous, inconsistent, changing elements and crafting innovation together Erosion of the people/system Collective behavior of people is not of interest. boundary Social interactions are not relevant. Normal Failures Failures will occur infrequently. Defects can be removed. A prime contractor is responsible for system development, New paradigms for acquisition and operation, and evolution. policy Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 19
  • 20. crafting innovation together crafting innovation together Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private 20
  • 21. crafting innovation together crafting innovation together Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 21
  • 22. ULSS Research Areas crafting innovation together ULS Systems Specific Sub-Areas Research Area • Decentralized Production Management • Context-Aware Assistive computing Adaptive • View-Based Evolution • Understanding Users and Their Contexts • Modeling Users and User Communities System • Evolutionary Configuration and Human Interaction • Fostering Non-Competitive Social Infrastructure Deployment • In Situ Control and Adaptation Collaboration • Robustness, Adaptation, and Quality • Longevity Attributes • Algorithmic Mechanism Design Computational • Scale and Composition of Quality • Metaheuristics in Software Engineering Emergence Adaptable and Attributes • Digital Evolution • Understanding People-Centric Quality • Design of All Levels Predictable crafting innovation together Attributes • Design Spaces and Design rules System Quality • Enforcing Quality Requirements • Harnessing Economics to Promote Good • Security, Trust, and Resiliency Design Design • Design Representation and Analysis • Engineering Management at Ultra- Large Scales • Assimilation • Determining and Managing Policy, • Policy Definition for ULS Systems Requirements Acquisition, • Expressive Representation Languages • Fast Acquisition for ULS Systems and • Management of ULS Systems • Scaled-Up Specification, Verification, and Computational Management Certification Engineering • Computational Engineering for Analysis and Design Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 22
  • 23. Competitive Advantage- Over Ages crafting innovation together How Fast Co-Create Extent of Connectedness How Fast Innovate How much Actionable Knowledge crafting innovation together How much and Quickly can be Informed How much can be produced In the Connected Age – How much of Agricultural land Co-Creators will thrive and Natural Resources Confidential Time
  • 24. crafting innovation together crafting innovation together Confidential
  • 25. Nature crafting innovation together is Fractal! crafting innovation together Confidential
  • 26. Black Swan – The impact of the highly improbable crafting innovation together • “I cannot accept a pretense of science. I much prefer a sophisticated craft, focused on tricks, to a failed science looking for certainties” Nassim Nicholas Taleb crafting innovation together Confidential
  • 27. A Weakening of Hierarchies crafting innovation together • Information abundance permits INDIVIDUALS to by- pass hierarchies that have – deliberately or inadvertently – controlled or limited information • Alternative human organization forms – based mainly on the Network have proved more effective and efficient for transacting information than hierarchies. crafting innovation together • In Information intensive enterprises, hierarchical organizations may not be competitive with networks. IN ATHENA’s CAMP – Preparing for conflict in the Information Age, (Ed) Arquilla J. and Ronfeldt D, RAND, 1997 Confidential © CRAFITTI CONSULTING
  • 28. crafting innovation together ONLY Networks CAN FIGHT Networks crafting innovation together Confidential ©
  • 29. Combat crafting innovation together Fight/Duel/Conflict/Battle/War/World War/Armageddon Modelling crafting innovation together Representing a system and its internal and/or external dynamics in such a form (may be mathematical) that information about its behaviour can be extracted or studied Confidential
  • 30. Parameters and Processes of Combat crafting innovation together • Two Sides • Command and Control • Search • Damage • Detection Assessment • Identification • Strategic and • Acquisition Tactical crafting innovation together Movement • Tracking • Influence of • Weapon Target Assignment Technology • Weapon Aiming and Firing • Attrition Confidential
  • 31. Nature of Combat and Combat Models crafting innovation together Past : Numerical Strength is Combat Power/ Attrition Based Modelling: Lanchester Equations Based and Fire Power Scores in QJMA Present: Technology Based Platform-Centric Revolution in Military Affairs crafting innovation together Modelling: Weapon Power Scores in Extended Adaptive Dynamic Model Future: Network Centric Warfare Modelling: Exploring New Models Confidential
  • 32. Approaches to Combat Modelling crafting innovation together Analytical Methods Simulation • Lanchester Equations • Combat • Adaptive Dynamic Simulations Model • Wargames Firepower Scores New Approaches crafting innovation together • QJMA • Cellular Automata • WEI • Petri Nets • Weapon Power Scores • Artificial Life • Particle Swarm Optimization Confidential
  • 33. Rand Report MG 268 (http://www.rand.org) crafting innovation together More than 12000 Sorties flown in mid 1990s to compare JTIDS datalink 16 system with conventional voice only communications crafting innovation together 250% IMPROVEMENT IN Kill Ratio Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 33
  • 34. crafting innovation together crafting innovation together Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 34
  • 35. Performance Evaluation of an Air Defence System (Networked) Modelled as a Petri Net (1998) crafting innovation together TL3 dar rne ra raft r Airbo y Airc e rada Enem Mobil AD3 A CC1 Radar AD2 SFP2 ER R AD1 (SFP) B B OR D E OR D Delay CAOC CAOC n Post r Fusio A CC2 Senso l CAOC Arriva ACC tion Opera al Air ation Centr e (CAOC) Penetr ACC SFP3 crafting innovation together Centr ponse ACC SA M SAM No res ON T RO L OP Site AIR C TRE r CE N ) Centr el Fighte (ACC SAM TER FIGH ON Gun DR r SQ U A N T R E Fighte TR1 OP C E ron Squad TR2 AD SHOR ION AT OPER RE efence CE N T Air D s TL3 Gun Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 35
  • 36. Time Transition Petri Net Model of an AD System crafting innovation together Stop Arrival Delay Delay Start Arrival Arrivals 300 . Threats Limit Undetected Detected Back Sensor TX1 Undetected SFP No response Gone1 TX2 Penetrations Penetration Gone2 CAOC ACC NP Plane crafting innovation together Sqdn TR Pres ACC Fighter Plane TL NS ACCR SAM SAMOC Sres SAM ACCL NG Gres Gun Gun SHORADOC Transition with exponential firing Transition with determinstic firing Fig. 3 : TTPN Model of an AD System Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 36
  • 37. Penetration Probability Vs Arrival Rate crafting innovation together crafting innovation together Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 37
  • 38. Application- Simulation of Terrorist Networks and Evaluation of Strategies crafting innovation together crafting innovation together Confidential
  • 39. Destabilization Strategies crafting innovation together Each strategy identifies actor criticality in a different way. All strategies rely on data in one or more cells in the meta-matrix. The identified strategies are: • Highest degree centrality: Isolate one agent from the covert network that has the highest degree centrality [20]. • Highest betweenness centrality: Isolate one agent from the covert network that has the highest betweenness centrality [20]. • Highest cognitive load: Isolate one agent from the covert network that has the highest cognitive load [6], where cognitive load is computed as a linear combination of: – Number of people person i interacts with / total number of people in the group; crafting innovation together – Number of subtasks person i is assigned to / total number of subtasks; – Sum of number of people who do the same tasks person i does / (total number of tasks * total number of people); – Sum of negotiation needs person i needs to do for each task / total possible negotiations, where a negotiation corresponds to the amount of information or resources that an agent needs to complete a subtask that it is assigned to, but doesn't have (and thus has to obtain from another agent by negotiation). • Highest task accuracy: Isolate the best performing agent in the organization. This corresponds to standard police practice of arresting agents implicated in commission of a terrorist act. • Amount of unique knowledge: Isolate the agent that has the highest expertise. Confidential 39 ©
  • 40. NetWatch: A Multi-Agent Network Model of Covert Network Surveillance and Destabilization crafting innovation together • Random case consisted of random removal strategy combined with one of the three wiretapping strategies. The baseline increases with accuracy of network discovery because of the fact that learning more of the network gives the random strategy better access to targets (including these of high importance). In the absence of false positives, the baseline strategies perform better then many complex heuristics. • Degree Centrality-based removal of agents performs well only with targeted wiretapping. This is because targeted wiretapping allows the Blue Team to completely discover a cell and all of its neighborhood, and thus be very confident in removal of a most central person. However, the network does recover reasonably quickly from the hit, thus decreasing the effectiveness of this strategy. • Betweenness Centrality-based removal performs well with roving wiretaps - because of the fact that they allow quick location of key gatekeepers in the network. • Cognitive Load-based removal requires significant knowledge of the network, and thus only performs well crafting innovation together under targeted and roving wiretap strategies. • Quite surprisingly, removal of Well-Performing individuals did not result in significant damage to the terrorist network. Most likely this is caused by the structure of the tasks that the agents perform and equivalence of individuals in equivalent network positions. • Knowledge-based removal proved to be the most effective strategy of the lot, and the only one to outperform the baseline strategies. The key to knowledge-based removal, though, is that its effectiveness hinges on speed of response more than the accuracy of structural knowledge. The experiments show that the highest efficiency of this strategy is achieved if Red Team experts are found and removed before they transmit much of their knowledge to the rest of the group, thus favoring quick decisive action to lengthy deliberation and heuristic learning that are characteristic of roving wiretaps. Confidential 40 ©
  • 41. crafting innovation together The Past crafting innovation together Confidential
  • 42. Combat crafting innovation together • Duels • LOS Fire • Attrition Based Warfare • Numerical Strength Important (the 3:1 Rule) crafting innovation together To make a Brigade of 4000 troops ineffective, one needs to destroy atleast 33% to 50% of its troops using a Division of about 12000 troops Confidential
  • 43. Combat Models: Past crafting innovation together • Coupled Differential Equations incorporating the rate at which both sides destroy each other’s numerical strengths • Quantified Judgement Method of Analysis based on Empirical Formulae developed using Historical Combat Data of Past crafting innovation together Wars (T.N. Dupuy) Confidential
  • 44. crafting innovation together The Present crafting innovation together Confidential
  • 45. Influence of Technology on War/Combat crafting innovation together Information Technology Telecom & Networking C4ISR IW/EW/SEW Communications PGMs ILSS NetWar/CyberWar Mobile Comm Knowledge Processing Lethality crafting innovation together Intelligence Analysis Mass Destruction to Tactical and Strategic Selective/Precise & Planning Effective Destruction Automated/Rapid Military Decision Making Confidential
  • 46. COLLECT & CAPABILITY TO PROCESS ABILITY TO DESTROY PICK OUT c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r BATTLEFIELD TARGETS WITH TARGETS IN A INFORMATION WITH PRECISION FROM DYNAMIC BATTLE SPEED AND GREATER RANGES SCENARIO ACCURACY INTERACTION ABILITY TO SEE / CHOOSE TARGETS BETTER crafting innovation together INCREASES THE EFFECTIVENESS OF PRECISION GUIDED MUNITIONS HEART OF REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS (RMA) Confidential
  • 47. crafting innovation together The Future crafting innovation together Confidential
  • 48. Network Centric Warfare crafting innovation together Network is the Computer Fundamental Shift from Platform Centric warfare to Network Centric Warfare Characterized by: crafting innovation together Very High Level of Shared Battlespace Awareness Shared Knowledge of Commanders Intent Self-Sync, Speed of Command, and rapid lock- out Confidential
  • 49. Network Centric Warfare: Sources of Increased Combat Power crafting innovation together Shared Battlespace Awareness Increased Battlespace Awareness Battlespace Expansion: Employment of Weapons at Max Range crafting innovation together Increased Survivability Self-Synchronization of Forces Reduced Collateral Damage Virtual Collaboration: Moving Information not people Confidential
  • 50. The Present crafting innovation together Modelling and Analysis of Advanced Technologies and Combat Support Systems in Combat between RMA Forces crafting innovation together Confidential
  • 51. Combat Evaluation of Weapon CSS Weights Support System Power Scores of Army, t o g e t h e r on AHP based (CSS)i n g i n n o v a t i o n craft Navy and Air Force Capability Weapons Assessment Force Strength Force Multiplier Estimation of Evaluation related to CSS Quantity of Weapons crafting innovation together Adaptive Estimation of Generation of Dynamic Model Combat Scenarios Model Parameters Combat METHODOLOGY Outcomes Confidential
  • 52. Weapon Power Score crafting innovation together Self Integration Operability Lethality Protection Index Index Index crafting innovation together On-Board On- Board Self Night / All Ability to get Weapons Defence Weather connected to Capability Capability Capability C3I System Confidential Each Node in the Network
  • 53. Weapon Power Score (WPS) crafting innovation together = Operational Lethality Index (OLI) x (1+ Self-Protection Index (SPI)) x (1 + Operability Index (OI)) x (1 + Integration Index (II)) Force Strength (FS) = Summation of product of WPS and Quantity of weapons in a force crafting innovation together Force Potential (FP) = Force Strength x (1 + Combat Support System Effectiveness Factor) Confidential
  • 54. Factors considered for OLI Computations crafting innovation together Weapons Factors Infantry Small Arms Rate of Fire, Range, Accuracy, Reliability, and Non Mobile and Potential Targets per Strike, Dispersion Weapons Factor Arty Towed/AD Guns All of the above and certain Artillery related factors Arty Self-Propelled All of the above and Mobility factors. crafting innovation together OLI of on-board Guns and Missiles, Armour, Ships, Mobility factor Punishment factor, Submarines Ammunition factor, Amphibious capability factor etc., Attack Helicopter, OLI of on-board Guns, Missiles, Ceiling Aircraft factor Mobility factor, Confidential
  • 55. Factors Affecting SPI, OI and II of Army Platforms crafting innovation together Weapon System Factors Affecting SPI OI II Infantry Survivability Night Vision, Communication Links Transportability with Brigade. HQ. and Built-in-Armor, RPV/UAV Night Vision, All Reactive Armor, Top Armor Attack Protection NBC Weather Operations, Communication Links Protection, Fire & fording, with RPV/UAV and other Explosion Suppression, Amphibious Armor Vehicles. crafting innovation together Silhouette, Agility Capability, Air droppable Shoot & Scoot Artillery Guns Capability, Stand Off All weather Integration with AOP Range, Armored Operability, NBC Protection Operability. AD Arty/ SAM Radar Control, NBC Integration with C2 Shoot & Scoot Capability, Stand Off Environment system Range Confidential
  • 56. Factors Affecting SPI, OI and II coff t iAirnforce tWeapons ra ng in ovation ogether Weapon System Factors Affecting SPI OI II Close Air Chaff, ECM, Support / ESM, Multi Mode Attack Helo Radar, Precision Guided Munitions Night Flight, Inter Aircraft Night Time & Ground Delivery, All Station Deep Strike Weather crafting innovation together All of the above Communicati and Inertial Operation on Navigation System All of the above Air Defense and Look Down/Look Up Radar Confidential
  • 57. Factors Affecting SPI, OI and IIr aofi nNavalt iPlatforms c ft g innova on together Weapon System Factors Affecting SPI OI II Battle Ships Intensity of Communication Threats faced, Links with Shore, Ability to detect with Maritime threatening Aircraft, with Sub crafting innovation together Shallow Platform, Marine force, with Water/ High Protection to other Ships. Seas Evade hit, Operability Protection to Evade Kill given Communication Links Submarine hit, Ability to with Shore, Maritime Jam/Confuse Aircraft, Own Enemy Platform Submarine force. Confidential
  • 58. Combat Support Systems (CSS) crafting innovation together Intelligence Surveillance C4 Information Logistics & Reconnaissance(ISR) Warfare Support System Command and EW Infrastructure Space based Control Opsec Resources Airborne Communications Psyops Material Sea Based Computers Deception Management • Ground Based Lethal IW National crafting innovation together System Integration Non lethal IW Resources Encryption Inter-service SW Engg Integration Networking Computer Security Info Security Confidential
  • 59. crafting innovation together IW ISR C4 Space Cmd & Control Air Communications Sea Computers crafting innovation together Gnd System Integration ILSS Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 59
  • 60. crafting innovation together I1 I2 I3 I4 C1 C2 C3 C4 W L Space based ISR (I1) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 Airborne ISR (I2) 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 ISR Sea based ISR (I3) 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 Gnd based ISR (I4) 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 Cmd and Control (C1) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 C4 Communications (C2) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Computers (C3) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 System Integration (C4) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 IW (W) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ILSS (L) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 I1 I2 I3 I4 C1 C2 C3 C4 W L Space based ISR (I1) 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 crafting innovation together Air ISR (I2) 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 ISR Sea based ISR (I3) 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 Gnd based ISR (I4) 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 Cmd and Control (C1) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 C4 Communications (C2) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 Computers (C3) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 System Integration (C4) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 IW (W) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 ILSS (L) 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 60
  • 61. crafting innovation together Combat Combat Combat Sub System CSS Normalised Order of Support Support Synergy Activity Index Weights Ranking Systems System Indices Ai =(Di) X (Si) (Wi) Dependency (Si) Indices (Di) Space based ISR 0.064 0.083 0.00531 0.0598 VIII Air based ISR 0.096 0.070 0.672 0.0757 IV Sea based ISR 0.115 0.047 0.00541 0.0609 VI Gnd based ISR 0.096 0.070 0.00672 0.0757 IV Cmd and Control 0.165 0.033 0.00545 0.0614 V Communications 0.054 0.165 0.00891 0.1004 III crafting innovation together Computers 0.054 0.165 0.00891 0.1004 III System 0.076 0.165 0.01254 0.1413 II Integration IW 0.142 0.165 0.2343 0.2639 I ILSS 0.138 0.039 0.00538 0.0606 VII Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 61
  • 62. crafting innovation together ISR C4 Space Based Command and Control IW ILSS Air Based Communications Sea Based Computers Ground Based System Integration crafting innovation together Country A Country B Country C Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 62
  • 63. crafting innovation together CSS Factors Space based ISR Communications Satellites, Navigation Satellites, Meterological Satellites, Imaging Reconnaissance Satellites, Relay Satellites Air baser ISR AWACS/AEW, Air based Ground Tactical Reconnaissance, Maritime Reconnaissance, Airborne Ground Strategic ISR Reconnaissance, Airborne Battlefield Surveillance Capability (UAV/RPV capability) Sea based ISR Surface Tactical Recce, Sub-surface Tactical Recce, Strategic Recce, Coast based Strategic Recce Ground based Tactical Recce, Air Space Recce, Strategic Recce ISR Command and Strategic C2, Tactical C2, Politics Military C2, Inter Services Control Integration crafting innovation together Communications Utilization of EM Spectrum, Communication System, Communication Security, Merger with National Telecom System C4 Computers Computing Power, Software capability, Knowledge processing and Automated Decision Making Capability System Data Fusion, National Level Interoperability, Inter Services Integration Operability, Integration of ISR, C2, ILSS with Lethal System, Fault Tolerant Communication / Computing, Interoperability Standards Information Warfare (IW) Operations Security, Psychological Operations, EW, Deception Lethal IW, Non Lethal IW, Cryptology, Computer Security, Info Security, Intelligence ILSS Armed Forces Resources, Logistics Infrastructure, Material Management, National Resources, Inter Service Integration Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. August 16, 2010 63
  • 64. Adaptive Dynamic Model (ADM) crafting innovation together • Off shoot of Lanchester Models Extensions • J.M. Epstein • Air to Air Combat • Use of Exchange Ratio and • Naval Combat Prosecution Rate including sub surface • Parameters reflecting ability to • use of Weapon Power Scores instead of crafting innovation together concentrate fire in engagements WEI for Force • Uses Force strength instead of Strength Numerical Strength • Estimation of • Withdrawal and reinforcements parameters based on • Close Air Support to Ground Forces realistic data Confidential
  • 65. INPUT • Initial Force Strengths of the Forces crafting innovation together • Force Strength Reinforcement on each day OUTPUT • Force Strength Attrition Force Rate Strength loss • Exchange Ratio Adaptive and Aircraft • Threshold Attrition Attrition per Rates Dynamic Model day • Number of Close Air crafting innovation together Support (CAS) Aircraft • CAS daily Sortie rate per Aircraft • CAS aircraft Attrition rate per sortie • Battle termination Conditions Confidential
  • 66. crafting innovation together Equations of the Model : A t   A t  11   t  1  DCAS (t  1)  RA t , g g g  t  1 D t   D t  1  A t  1  ACAS (t  1)  RD t , crafting innovation together g g  t  1 g g  W(t)   (t )   (t ) 1  , g  W   max  Confidential
  • 67. crafting innovation together 0 if  d (t  1)   dT W (t )   W (t  1)   Wmax  W (t  1)   (t  1)    if  (t  1)      d     1   dT  dT d dT D (t )   D (t  1)  RD (t  1)  g   (t )  g  g . d D (t ) g crafting innovation together We set W(1) = 0, on the attacker’s side    (t  1)   (t )   (t  1)   T g g  a  g  a    (t  1)   aT   aT  , A (t  1)   A (t  1)  RA (t  1)  g   (t )  g  g . a A (t ) Confidential g
  • 68. crafting innovation together We set g(1) equal to some initial value [g(1)  aT]. The ground-induced exchange ratio is given by   D (t )  d  g   (t ) =    , crafting innovation together 0  A (t )  a  g    (8) where 0 is a constant. Confidential
  • 69. crafting innovation together Equations for Close Air Support (CAS) aircraft: a a  da  D (t ) = D (t  1) 1   S d  RD (t ), a a a  aa  A (t ) = A (t  1) 1   S a  RA (t ). a DCAS(t ) = a D (t ), crafting innovation together a a= LK d   da d  1 - 1 -  S  1   1 , V      da   Confidential
  • 70. crafting innovation together ACAS (t ) = b A (t ), a  S a 1       1-1-   L Ka   aa   b=  1 . V   aa  crafting innovation together       Confidential
  • 71. crafting innovation together SIDE A SIDE B Ground Forces Ground Forces CAS Forces CAS Forces AD Fighters AD Fighters AD Escorts crafting innovation together AD Escorts Confidential
  • 72. crafting innovation together Test Scenario – Country A Strike Corps attacking Country B holding forces Force with Force with Country A Country B 1 Armoured 2 Infantry Division Division 1 Independent 3 Independent crafting innovation together Armoured Brigade Armoured Brigades 3 Infantry 1 Armoured Divisions Regiment Confidential