This presentation was delivered at NADO's 2018 Annual Training Conference, held in Charlotte, NC on October 13-16. For more information, visit: https://www.nado.org/events/2018-annual-training-conference/

1. Scenario Planning:
A tool to navigate future uncertainty with confidence
Janae Futrell, AICP, LEED AP
Decision Support Fellow, Consortium for Scenario Planning
www.scenarioplanning.io

2. Learning
Objec?ves
1. What scenario planning is and why it is important
2. How to apply a step-by-step framework for scenario
planning to your work
3. How prac>>oners have approached public outreach
with scenario planning

3. Agenda
1. Part 1
• Overview of what scenario planning is and why it is important
• Introduc>ons
• Step-by-step framework including prac>>oner examples
2. Part 2
• “PuFng scenario planning into prac>ce” exercise
• Closing

4. What is scenario planning?
Scenario planning is a structured process to support
decision-making that helps urban and rural planners navigate
the uncertainty of the future in the short and long term.

5. Why is scenario planning important?
Rural and urban planners commonly face 3 challenges:
Planning processes
that are difficult to
adjust to sudden
changes or
uncertain>es
Public engagement
without
communica>on of
interconnected
issues and tradeoffs
Planning processes
lacking clarity of quality
of life outcomes such as
equity, health,
economic development,
and others
1
2 3

6. #1 - Planning processes that are
difficult to adjust to sudden changes

7. #1 - Planning processes that are
difficult to adjust to sudden changes

8. #1 - Planning processes that are
difficult to adjust to sudden changes

9. Transparent
underlying
decision
making
structure with
clear variables
Know when an
impacPul
change
occurred,
enables periodic
“refreshing”
Step-by-step
framework
will help
clarify where
transparency
is lacking
Requirement: In order to: Good news:

10. #2 - Public engagement without communica?on
of interconnected issues and tradeoffs

11. #2 - Public engagement without communica?on
of interconnected issues and tradeoffs

12. Professionals
understand
concepts well
first
Incorporated
into the
“stakeholder
and public
engagement”
step in the
framework
Requirement: In order to: Good news:
Boil down
concepts to
an accessible
level for the
public

13. #3 - Planning processes lacking clarity of quality of life outcomes
such as equity, health, economic development, and others

14. Organiza>on
has worked
with staff,
stakeholders,
and public to
clarify quality
of life
outcomes
Incorporated
into the
“direc>on
seFng” step
in the
framework
Requirement: In order to: Good news:
Enable
transparency
about the
outcomes

15. Introduc?ons

16. Step-by-Step Framework

17. Founda?on Building

19. External forces
§ Climate change
§ Technology
§ Global migra>on
§ Demographic & cultural change
§ Na>onal economic growth
§ Interna>onal compe>>on
Internal decisions
§ Infrastructure investments
§ Regulatory structure
§ Land use policies
§ Fiscal policies
§ Health and educa>on
§ Governance
Determinants of growth
Source: RPA

20. High certainty
§ Many more elderly
§ Smaller working age popula>on
§ Racial and ethnic diversity
§ Less land to develop
§ Aging infrastructure
§ Rising sea levels
Less certainty
§ Slightly lower na>onal growth
§ New jobs dispropor>onately high
skill
§ Substan>al increase in working at
home & off peak travel
§ Preference for walkable
neighborhoods will increase
§ Other regions will invest strongly in
housing and infrastructure
§ More frequent and intense storms
Assumptions
Source: RPA

21. Direc?on SeVng

22. Social equity
Source: RPA

23. All scenarios are transit-oriented by design
Source: RPA

24. Response & Ac?on Planning

25. A Shi^ in emphasis
The next Regional Transporta>on Plan (RTP) will have increasing emphasis on
strategies other than rapid transit infrastructure.
Source: Metrolinx

26. Stakeholder & Public Engagement

27. Source: RPA

28. Reimagine
our Region
in 2050

29. Public Engagement

30. 10 Forums
• Reimagine Our Region for 2050
• Have we reached peak driving?
Planning for future travel in the
Chicago region
• Designing the Future: Gen X and
Millennials in 2050
• Development at the Edge: The
Future of Regional Urbaniza1on
• Closer to Home: Crea1ng a
Balanced Regional Housing
Supply by 2050
• Thriving in a Changing Climate
• Where We’ll Live in 2050
• Harnessing Technology for Future
Mobility
• The Future of Economic
Opportunity
• Doing More with Less in 2050

31. 20 kiosks
60,000+ interactions

32. Videos, web,
online polling,
social media
#2050BigIdeas

33. Subhead goes here
What’s your top concern about
denser, more walkable
neighborhoods?
A. I’m not concerned
B. Changes to neighborhood character
C. More traffic and parking hassles
D. More stress on schools
E. Housing costs
F. Other

34. Discussion

35. What is the Consor?um?
It provides training and
peer exchange to support
professionals as they get
started with scenario
planning and take it to
more advanced levels.
Who can benefit?
Urban, regional, and rural
planners and managers, as
well as others, are
welcome.
Official partners include:
How can I learn more?
Become a par>cipant or
join the mailing list by
visi>ng the website at
scenarioplanning.io
or contac>ng Janae at
jfutrell@lincolninst.edu.