2. Fund Description
Fund Size 100 million pesos
Launch Date March 23, 2013
Fund Structure Equity Fund
Fund Currency Php
Management Fee 1% pa
Investment Horizon Medium Term
Policy Constraints • Not less than 10% in government
securities
• Not more than 10% of the portfolio to
be invested in any one stock or 10% of the
issuers equity, whichever is smaller
• No short positions
• No leverage
3. Client Requirements
Actuarial Return 10% net of fees and taxes
Actuarial Liability 350 Million pesos,
260 Million is matched by other assets fully
dedicated and cash-flow matched with the
liabilities to be paid out beyond 5 years
Actuarial Forecast 10 Million in liquid or near liquid assets.
Others The fund must be fully invested except for
500,000 pesos in cash for operating
expenses outside of management fees
4. Philippine Stock Market Outlook
• Based on macroeconomic analysis, sectors we prefer are :
Consumer Staples Utilities Financial
Real estate Tourism
6. Stock Selection Screening
Fundamentals
Cheap or Not P/E or P/B, etc. below its Peers
Liquidity Higher Market Cap and Volume
Leverage ROI with low leverage
Growth Analysis of PEG, P/E and ROE
Others Dividend Yield
Technicals
Candle sticks Chart 2007 up to date
Risk – Return Statistics
Risk and Return Sharpe Ratio
Other Analysts’ Consensus
Source Reuters
Optimization per Sector
Mean-Variance Opt Min Variance and Expected Return > 15%
7. Banks
RISK-RETURN STATS FUNDAMENTALS ALLOCATION
Ave daily volume
Mean Std. Var Sharpe Ratio P/B Dividend Yield (6-mo) Optimizer
SECB 21.10 50.68 0.36 2.46 1.24 703,936.60 0.20 0.50
UBP 12.64 47.73 0.20 1.56 2.65 284,895.80 0.00 0.00
PNB 8.89 59.22 0.10 1.84 - 1,231,893.00 0.00 0.00
RCB 10.48 47.97 0.16 1.54 1.54 653,179.00 0.00 0.00
BPI 8.81 23.19 0.25 3.54 1.88 1,707,217.00 0.50 0.50
PSB 8.95 24.52 0.24 1.44 0.77 7,073.94 0.00 0.00
MBT 9.61 44.59 0.15 2.23 0.88 3,316,030.00 0.15 0.00
BDO 4.38 41.18 0.03 2.42 - 4,854,643.00 0.15 0.00
1.00 1.00
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
-
Rizal Commercial Metropolitan
Security Bank Union Bank of the Philippine Bank of the Philippine Savings BDO Unibank,
Banking Bank & Trust
Corporation Philippines, Inc. National Bank Philippine Islands Bank Inc.
Corporation Company
12/30/2011 97 66 56 30 55 85 68 53
MAX 179 125 104 68 106 135 114 99
MIN 16 20 12 9 33 36 20 18
LAST PRICE 179 120 98 67 106 135 113 88
11. Utilities, Telco and Other Services
RISK-RETURN STATS FUNDAMENTALS
ALLOCATION
Sharpe Div.
EPS P/E ebitda/sh Ave volume
Mean Std. Var Ratio Yield Optimizer
MER 23.55 47.96 0.43 3.45 20.75 3.12 5.95 638,988.10 0.30 0.25
FPH 1.06 67.00 -0.03 1.54 4.43 2.64 4.06 938,046.40 0.00
MWC 15.04 27.47 0.44 0.75 13.12 1.87 1.31 2,674,040.00 0.20 0.07
GLO -1.88 26.32 -0.19 0.31 20.83 5.78 62.51 88,292.99 0.36
TEL 2.20 15.49 -0.05 31.13 17.00 4.94 92.04 165,280.30 0.30 0.32
AP 41.07 50.67 0.75 0.84 0.00 3.43 0.87 2,783,387.00 0.20 0.00
Utilities
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
-
Aboitiz Power Corporation Manila Electric Company First Philippine Holdings Corporation Manila Water Company, Inc.
12/30/2011 30 247 62 19
MAX 39 314 114 37
MIN 3 39 15 9
LAST PRICE 36 314 106 37
12. Telcommunication
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Globe Telecom, Inc. Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company
12/30/2011 1133 2453.28
MAX 1499.79 2867.78
MIN 710 1772.77
LAST PRICE 1205 2792
Other Services
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
-
Aboitiz Power First Philippine Holdings Manila Water Company, Philippine Long Distance
Manila Electric Company Globe Telecom, Inc.
Corporation Corporation Inc. Telephone Company
12/30/2011 3.39 5.51 4.12 2.97 7.03 7.81
MAX 3.65 5.75 4.73 3.61 7.31 7.96
MIN 1.22 3.65 2.72 2.21 6.57 7.48
LAST PRICE 3.58 5.75 4.66 3.61 7.09 7.93
13. Properties
FUNDAMENTALS
RISK-RETURN STATS ALLOCATION
Sharpe Div.
EPS P/E Ave volume Optimizer
Mean Std. Var Ratio Yield
RLC 2.19 62.39 -0.01 0.29 20.44 35.71 3,288,723.00 0.20 0.00
ALI 8.79 44.52 0.13 0.17 43.28 0.00 10,445,860.00 0.30 0.00
SMPH 10.78 25.52 0.30 0.15 30.72 29.36 14,866,540.00 0.20 0.80
MEG -7.26 71.97 -0.14 0.07 12.72 0.00 74,760,880.00 0.00
CPG 31.44 89.60 0.32 0.05 5.35 61.22 14,439,860.00 0.30 0.20
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
-
(1.00)
(2.00)
(3.00)
Robinsons Land Century Properties
Ayala Land, Inc. SM Prime Holdings, Inc. Megaworld Corporation
Corporation Group, Inc.
12/30/2011 2.42 2.72 2.36 0.53 0.66
MAX 3.19 3.47 2.94 6.94 1.66
MIN 1.40 1.72 1.72 (0.62) (2.04)
LAST PRICE 3.19 3.39 2.90 6.94 1.66
14. Final Picks Risk/return stats
(using rolling 12-mo returns for the period Jan 2007 - Feb 2013)
Expected
FUND SIZE: Volatility Sharpe ratio
return
100,000,000.00 Financials
Security Bank Corporation 21.10 50.68 0.36
Operating expense:
Bank of the Philippine Islands 8.81 23.19 0.25
500,000.00 Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 9.61 44.59 0.15
BDO Unibank, Inc. 4.38 41.18 0.03
Management fee:
Holding firms
1,000,000.00 JG Summit Holdings, Inc. 21.66 81.65 0.23
Alliance Global Group, Inc. 18.24 63.89 0.24
Investment in T-bills:
DMCI Holdings, Inc. 36.33 74.87 0.45
10,000,000.00 SM Investments Corporation 14.90 34.94 0.34
TOTAL Available for EQUITY Metro Pacific Investments Corporation 0.33 31.57 (0.08)
investment: Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc. 37.46 52.09 0.66
Mining & Oil
88,500,000.00 Semirara Mining Corporation 39.90 57.08 0.65
Total cost of equity allocation: Consumer
Jollibee Foods Corporation 14.86 23.11 0.51
88,449,523.40 RFM Corporation 31.14 78.10 0.36
Excess cash: Puregold Price Club, Inc. 70.65 12.11 5.59
San Miguel Pure Foods Company, Inc. 81.30 204.79 0.38
50,476.60 Utilities, telco & other services
Manila Electric Company 23.55 47.96 0.43
Manila Water Company, Inc. 15.04 27.47 0.44
Portfolio Expected Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company 2.20 15.49 (0.05)
24.66 Aboitiz Power Corporation 41.07 50.67 0.75
return
Property
Portfolio Volatility 54.01
Robinsons Land Corporation 2.19 62.39 (0.01)
Sharpe ratio 0.406 Ayala Land, Inc. 8.79 44.52 0.13
SM Prime Holdings, Inc. 10.78 25.52 0.30
Century Properties Group, Inc. 31.44 89.60 0.32
15. Final Picks
SECB BPI MBT BDO JGS AGI DMC SM p MPI SCC JFC RFM MER MWC TEL AP p RLC ALI SMPH CPG
Security Bank Corporation 1.00
Bank of the Philippine Islands 0.79 1.00
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 0.91 0.83 1.00
BDO Unibank, Inc. 0.95 0.81 0.93 1.00
JG Summit Holdings, Inc. 0.91 0.66 0.90 0.93 1.00
Alliance Global Group, Inc. 0.86 0.77 0.91 0.90 0.91 1.00
DMCI Holdings, Inc. 0.85 0.66 0.90 0.89 0.93 0.94 1.00
SM Investments Corporation 0.86 0.88 0.96 0.90 0.84 0.89 0.88 1.00
Metro Pacific Investments Corporation 0.35 0.62 0.39 0.41 0.30 0.46 0.40 0.56 1.00
Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc. 0.64 0.49 0.73 0.67 0.82 0.79 0.78 0.63 0.10
Semirara Mining Corporation 0.49 0.19 0.40 0.56 0.70 0.60 0.62 0.33 0.00 1.00
Jollibee Foods Corporation 0.73 0.71 0.85 0.80 0.78 0.78 0.80 0.86 0.39 0.45 1.00
RFM Corporation 0.79 0.79 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.76 0.85 0.40 0.39 0.74 1.00
Manila Electric Company 0.32 0.34 0.48 0.36 0.33 0.50 0.55 0.54 0.41 (0.08) 0.45 0.25 1.00
Manila Water Company, Inc. 0.58 0.46 0.37 0.64 0.50 0.46 0.40 0.39 0.30 0.45 0.22 0.47 (0.04) 1.00
Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company 0.73 0.52 0.60 0.73 0.61 0.57 0.60 0.60 0.36 0.29 0.44 0.51 0.36 0.75 1.00
Robinsons Land Corporation 0.87 0.77 0.93 0.88 0.81 0.84 0.84 0.91 0.39 0.24 0.73 0.83 0.57 0.46 0.71 0.61 1.00
Ayala Land, Inc. 0.92 0.82 0.96 0.95 0.89 0.90 0.88 0.94 0.41 0.41 0.77 0.89 0.45 0.55 0.71 0.69 0.96 1.00
SM Prime Holdings, Inc. 0.74 0.82 0.79 0.75 0.57 0.62 0.63 0.84 0.53 (0.02) 0.70 0.70 0.51 0.37 0.62 0.24 0.82 0.81 1.00
Century Properties Group, Inc. 0.41 0.23 0.28 0.35 0.26 0.25 0.31 0.26 0.19 0.08 0.19 (0.05) 0.25 0.17 0.32 0.01 0.27 0.28 0.37 1.00
*insufficient data points for Puregold, San Miguel Purefoods, Aboitiz Equity Ventures
16. Final Picks TAA FUND ALLOCATION
Fund allocation Last price Cost
Sector Equity Wt (PhP mio) (PhP/sh) # of shares* (PhP mio)
Financials 17% 15.00
Security Bank Corporation 20% 3.4% 3.01 179.2 16,791 3.01
Bank of the Philippine Islands 50% 8.4% 7.47 105.7 70,699 7.47
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 15% 2.6% 2.26 112.7 20,024 2.26
BDO Unibank, Inc. 15% 2.6% 2.26 87.9 25,674 2.26
Holding firms 30% 26.55
JG Summit Holdings, Inc. 25% 7.5% 6.64 40.95 162,088 6.64
Alliance Global Group, Inc. 10% 3.0% 2.66 19.74 134,498 2.65
DMCI Holdings, Inc. 20% 6.0% 5.31 53.9 98,516 5.31
SM Investments Corporation 5% 1.5% 1.33 1033 1,285 1.33
Metro Pacific Investments Corporation 10% 3.0% 2.66 5.28 502,841 2.66
Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc. 30% 9.0% 7.97 54.5 146,147 7.97
Mining & Oil 2% 1.77
Semirara Mining Corporation 100% 2.0% 1.77 261 6,782 1.77
Consumer 16% 14.16
Jollibee Foods Corporation 30% 4.8% 4.25 115 36,939 4.25
RFM Corporation 20% 3.2% 2.83 4.77 593,711 2.83
Puregold Price Club, Inc. 20% 3.2% 2.83 38.65 73,273 2.83
San Miguel Pure Foods Company, Inc. 30% 4.8% 4.25 271.4 15,652 4.25
Utilities, telco & other services 25% 22.13
Manila Electric Company 30% 7.5% 6.64 314 21,139 6.64
Manila Water Company, Inc. 20% 5.0% 4.43 36.8 120,245 4.43
Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company 30% 7.5% 6.64 2792 2,377 6.64
Aboitiz Power Corporation 20% 5.0% 4.43 36 122,917 4.43
Property 10% 8.85
Robinsons Land Corporation 20% 2.0% 1.77 24.3 72,840 1.77
Ayala Land, Inc. 30% 3.0% 2.66 29.8 89,094 2.66
SM Prime Holdings, Inc. 20% 2.0% 1.77 18.2 97,253 1.77
Century Properties Group, Inc. 30% 3.0% 2.66 5.28 502,841 2.66
Total 100% 100% 88.45 88.45