This document summarizes a technology roadmapping course on roadmapping concepts and applications. It includes sections on technology foresight, scenarios, trends and drivers, products and services, supporting systems, examples of technology roadmaps from various industries, and practical issues in roadmap design. The document also presents two case studies, one on a company's use of roadmapping for various business units and technologies, and another on Korea's national technology roadmapping process.
33. Visions for Korea’s National Technology Roadmap
1
Building an Information-
Knowledge-Intelligence
Society
2
Aiming at Bio-
5 Improving National
Healthopia Safety Prestige
Visions
for Science and
Technology
in 2012
3 4
Advancing the Upgrading the Value of
Environment/Energy Major Industries of Korea
Frontier Today
Source: National Technology Roadmap (NTRM) Outline, KISTEP (2002)
34. Example: Portfolio Analysis of Visions
Advanced Precision Machining System New Functional Information Materials/Devices
(2010, $ 270 billion) (2010, $ 300 billion)
Very
High Highly Functional Metals/
Ceramics/Polymers/Textile
(2010, $ 800 billion)
Next Generation Manufacturing System
(2010, $ 200 billion)
User-friendly Advanced Construction
(2011, market-scale $ 40,00 billion, saved $110,000 billion)
Nanomaterials
(2010, $ 200 billion) New Automotive System
High (2011, 75 million cars)
New Ocean Transportation System
(2000, domestic $ 5,000 billion)
Economical Effect
Integrated Transporting System
(market-size $ 100,000 billion before 2011, increasing by $20,000 per
year, saved $ 80,000 billion per year)
Medium New Railway System (Korean Type)
(2010, $ 5,000 billion)
Possibility of
Success
Sustainable natural resource and effective development of
:High natural land
(2011, market-scale $ 4,000 billion, saved $2,000 billion)
Low
:Medium
Very
Low
:Low
Very Low Low Medium High Very High
Strategic Importance
35. Example: The Technology Roadmap
Vision IV Upgrading the Value of Major Strategic Products and Functions:
Economical
Industries of Korea Today Next Generation Manufacturing System
Effects
Direction of Development:
Next Generation Manufacturing and Mechatronics Strategic
Importance
•Diversification of demands – customization mass production age
Assessment •An aging society, the lack of technological/technical man power -> intellectual production age
Importance •The protection of the earth environment, environmental restriction -> clean production age
of future •The development and growth of the key industry through the attainment of high efficiency and high value
High low
Integrated CAX solution
Clean based intellectual and virtual process/factory/company
Knowledge based facility Knowledge acquiring inspection facility
Products and Intellectually autonomous industrial robots/industrial facility
Functions AI (Artificial Intelligence) control system
Integrated automatic storage/distribution
Self-maintaining production system Eco production system
R&D strategy Energy reduction type of facilities
Ecology fused reproduction system
basic research 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
applied research Intelligent Self-learning tech.
manufacturing Self-healing tech.
intn’l collaboration
Key technologies
and clean Self-organizing tech.
outsourcing manufacturing Integrated product information system tech.
system and ultra
precision Optimization modeling/ simulation tech.
machining knowledge tech.
system knowledge tech.
technology AI tech.
Eco-design tech.
Eco-product tech.
Remanufacturing.
Supporting Nano technological
Technologies Energy IT Limitation in the level of AI Tech.
•Limitation in the level of AI (Artificial Intelligence) technology
•Level and time in the utilization of the technology for computer, auto-recognition,
Change reasoning and decision
Factor •Environmental restriction, trade restriction and uncertainty in the earth environmental
change
38. Road transport system: key themes
Social Social, economic and
environmental drivers
reflect the three
cornerstones of
Economic Environmental sustainable development
Technology, policy and
infrastructure
Political Infrastructural enable or constrain
progress towards the
social, economic and
environmental goals
Technological
39. Foresight Vehicle technology roadmap:
architecture
+5 years +10 years +15 years +20 years
Now Vision
Market / S Time
T
Industry Trends drivers, key issues and uncertainties
E
E
P
drivers I
Performance T
S
E Evolution of required and desirable functional
measures EP performance of road transport systems of the future
and targets I
Technical Required and desired technological response,
Group areas including research requirements
40. Foresight Vehicle TRM: process
Engine and powertrain (E&PT)
Hybrid, electric and alternatively
fuelled vehicles (HEV)
Market Road
and transport
Planning industry system Advanced software, sensors, Reporting
Consultation electronics and telematics (ASSET) Synthesis
(Oct „01) trends performance (Sept „02)
and measures
drivers and targets
Advanced structures
and materials (FASMAT)
Design and manufacturing
Processes (DMaP)
Co-ordination, facilitation, data collection, analysis and structuring of information
• 10 month duration • More than 130 participants
• 10 workshops • More than 60 organisations
41. Example detailed roadmap content (1 of 28): Social trends & drivers
2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 Vision
80-85% of journeys Growth in personal mobility (70% of Individual 2010: Passenger 2015: 150% 2031: 57% increase in Cheap,
by car 39,40,103 drivers use car for leisure day trips every „time budget‟ numbers through UK increase in UK road traffic, safe,
week or month; 50% expect to be making for travel airports increase by international air compared to 1996 80,103 reliable,
75% of all journeys
more by 2020) 42 remains 50% 30 traffic; 100% clean
are under 5 miles
constant ? increase in 2031: 40% increase convenient,
and 45% are less
Journey times increasing (70% longer domestic, comfortable
than 2 miles 31 2010: 20-50% increase 2012: Bicycle in bus / coach
by 2016 in peak travel periods) 67 journeys compared to vehicle miles, transport
in European road
double 31 1995 1 compared to 1996 1 for all
Increasing passenger and
Nearly one third of Vehicles sold increasingly as
complexity of haulage traffic 13,80
UK households do „lifestyle‟ choices ?
not have a car (13 lives ? Frustration with congestion and public 2022: 70%
million people) 31 transport continues ? increase in journey
Increasing female vehicle purchase / 2010: 10% increase
(journey time no longer predictable) times in many UK
Many different ownership (women are more likely to in bus passenger
describe their cars as „stylish‟, „sporty‟ or Trend towards cities 1996 80
stakeholder groups, journeys 30
„fun‟) 42 career
with different needs
Balance between „downsizing‟ for New working / 2030: population
from transport Legal issues and
People and jobs global, national improved 2010: 50% living patterns in the UK is
system frameworks ?
have moved out of and local lifestyle ? increase in rail forecast to
the city and town solutions ? passenger miles 30 Social increase by 3.3%,
UK car-centric centres 103 Shift from car ownership to 61 million
attitudes
culture Increasing to car access ? 1,39,40,67, after
towards road
Increasing proportion of women in leisure time 39,40 which it will
transport and
1999: UK „leads‟ paid employment (9.9 million in decline to 57
the
world in vehicle 1984 to 12.2 million in 1999) 73 Increased million by 2050 73
Increasing 2010: 25% of UK environment?
theft (twice global use of car 2015: 400 million
average at 2.5%); More than half of drivers exceed speed mobile workforce pools ? people live in
cost of vehicle- limits on motorways, dual carriageways working teleworking at megacities of more 2030: 22- 27% of
related crime and residential roads 66 least two days per than 10 million UK population
£6bn 46,47 week 57 inhabitants 57
More residential traffic calming schemes over retirement
and pedestrianisation of town centres age, compared to
2000: 19% in 1998;
3,500 road traffic 2016: 4 million (25%)
Demand to Shift in social Younger pension costs rise
deaths and 40,000 increase in housing (80%
reduce deaths attitudes to generation more from 4.5-5.5% of
serious injuries in single-person), increasing
Between 8 and and injuries on speeding IT-literate GDP 1,25,39,40
UK, at an estimated demand for travel 1,67
20% of car- roads
cost of £13.3bn
owning
(40,000 deaths and
households 2007: working at home becoming Continued 2016: 25% increase in number 2021: Households
1.7 million injuries in
experience common (currently more than 66% of growth of of UK households, 80% of in South-east
EU, representing a
vehicle-related European organisations with more cities and growth due to single person forecast to grow by
cost of 2% of GDP) Increasing
8,37,39,40 crime each year, than 500 employees already practice towns, mainly households; 1.3% rural land 19% on 2001 levels
concern about teleworking) 28,39,40 41
depending on in South East use predicted to change to
crime, security
region 41 urban land use 39,40
and safety
Mobility & congestion Health, safety & security
Key: Lifestyle & attitudes Demographics
42. Example summary roadmap content:
Social performance measures & targets
002 2007 2012 2017 2022
Aim for 2005: 70% user 2010: 80% user 2020: 85%
„equitable‟ satisfaction with satisfaction with user
mobility all transport all transport satisfaction Vehicle
(same modes (measure modes with all adaptability
price for of „convenience‟) transport
same modes
journey Urban people
for all 2010: Vehicle security (resistance to attack) 5 transport
Society
groups in - Door locks: 5 minutes; Secure storage area in vehicle: 5
society) minutes
- Alarm systems: 5 minutes; Immobilisers: 20 minutes; Window Effective
glass: 2 minutes selling and
customer
2005: Road traffic 2010: Road traffic 2020: Road traffic noise reduced
noise reduced by noise reduced by by 6dBA;
support
3dBA from 1998 4dBA Homologated noise reduction of
levels 4dBA and 8dBA for light and
heavy vehicles, respectively
43. Update: Foresight Vehicle TRM - Round 2
• „Ownership‟ of Foresight Vehicle has shifted to Industry (SMMT)
• Roadmap has become a central „reference point‟ for consortium
• Aims for Round 2:
- Development of efficient low maintenance repeatable process
- Increased (industrial) focus & prioritisation
• 6 half day workshops
• Version 2 of the Roadmap was published in October 2004
62. How NANOTEC Platform TRM will be used
To communicate annual R&D agenda (priority areas of implementation), while
being aware of the next agenda.
As guidance for key NANOTEC’s operations: R&D Funding and call for papers,
Direction of in-house Central Laboratory, and COEs.
To manage Changes that are vital to survival and growth of NANOTEC. For
example,
Direct resources/capability in the key areas, while limit resources in others
Recruit personnel in specific technical areas
Modify internal structure (e.g. phase out some labs and set up new ones)
Tie TRM cycle with NANOTEC's operational cycle and update it constantly, esp. at
Board meetings (← keep it alive!)
This is a living technology roadmap
Still a work-in-progress
Need to be further refined 121
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