My talk delivered at Agile Australia 2013.

1. Neil Killick
neilkillick.com
The Guessing Game
Alternatives to Agile Estimation

2. WHAT WILL I GET
AND WHEN?

3. ARE WE ESTIMATING
OR GUESSING?

4. ARBITRARY PROJECT BOUNDARIES
ESTIMATES SET
EXPECTATIONS

5. ESTIMATES ARE
SELF-FULFILLING

6. A TYPICAL DYSFUNCTION
USING ESTIMATES

7. Present a
business case
Estimate
team & other
cost ==> ROI
Put team
together
Team
estimates
Is the
estimate
too big?
Reduce scope
Project
approved
NO
YES
Ditch
project?
Business case
approved &
project prioritised
but when will it start?
Complete guess?
HOW DO WE ESTIMATE COST?

8. HOW DO WE PRIORITISE?

9. HOW DO WE KNOW WE'RE
BUILDING THE RIGHT THING?

10. Project lifecycle
Assumption lifecycle
PROJECTS MAKE
ASSUMPTIONS

11. BIG BETS ARE
RISKY

12. WE MUST CONSIDER
EMERGENT VALUE

13. MISSED OPPORTUNITIES

14. WHAT'S THE ALTERNATIVE?

15. BUDGET CREATES A REAL DEADLINE
WHAT CAN WE BUILD FOR $500k?
USE REAL CONSTRAINTS

16. BUILD & LEARN WHAT IS POSSIBLE
WHAT CAN WE BUILD FOR $50k?
ITERATE ON QUALITY

17. Present a
business case
Approved as
viable option
Team
assigned
2-4 week
experiment
Is initiative
still valuable
enough?
NO
Initiative
prioritised
YES
+ Team(s) if
required
Frequent delivery
& feedback loop
PUT THE ITERATE INTO
ITERATIONS!
Stop

18. MULTIPLE OPTIONS, EASY TO SWITCH
DIVERSIFY RISK (e.g. STOCK MARKET)
SMALL BETS & EXPERIMENTS

19. BUILD FIXED, CAPABLE TEAMS
ENABLE CONTINUOUS DELIVERY
HIRE THE "A-TEAM"

20. REVIEW ROI MONTHLY, NOT ANNUALLY
STOP FUNDING IF VALUE DIMINISHES
FOCUS ON VALUE

21. BE PROACTIVE TO BEAT COMPETITORS
DRIP FUNDING ENABLES TRUE AGILITY
RESPOND TO CHANGE

22. WORK ON FEATURES WHEN ASKED FOR
DELIVER AS SOON AS THEY ARE BUILT
PREDICTABLE DELIVERY

23. HOW DO WE AGREE
PRICE & TERMS WITH
OUR CUSTOMERS?

24. CHOOSE TRUST OVER PARANOIA
WELCOME & EMBRACE CHANGE
COLLABORATION

25. ITERATIVE PRICING

26. SET DELIVERY & QUALITY EXPECTATION
CUSTOMER CAN CUT CORD EARLY
FLEXIBLE OPTIONS

27. FEATURE DELIVERY
WITHOUT ESTIMATING

28. USE HEURISTIC, E.G. "1 ACCEPTANCE TEST"
SLICE FEATURES SIMPLE

29. STORY COUNT > STORY POINTS

30. DERIVE COST WITH THROUGHPUT
PRICE PER FEATURE

31. WHY IS THIS
SO IMPORTANT?

32. STORY POINTS LEAD TO GAMING
ESTIMATES ARE NOT PROMISES
CULTURE OF HONESTY

33. WE WANT TO MAKE GOOD CHOICES
WE WANT TO DELIGHT CUSTOMERS
FREEDOM OF CREATIVITY

34. ON TIME, ON BUDGET?

35. I want to shift focus
away from estimating and onto
delivering value to
stakeholders & customers...
So that I am empowered to
make the right decisions and
@neil_killick
#NoEstimates
AS A SOFTWARE PRACTITIONER
BUILD THE RIGHT THING

36. Neil Killick
neilkillick.com
Thank you
Questions?