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WHAT TO WATCH:
GLOBAL RISK UPDATE Q1 2015
Christine Ferrusi Ross, Partner & SVP, Neo GroupMarch 26, 2015
© 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary
2
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•  Globalization Strategy
•  Sourcing
•  Location Strategy
•  Health Checks
•  Renegotiations
•  Governance
"   Since 1999, we have been helping clients
accelerate benefits and minimize risks associated
with global talent and sourcing.
"   We have a singular focus on the global services
supply chain.
"   We achieve outcomes through deep IP, real-time
analytics, globally recognized experts, proven
methodologies and co-creation with our clients.
"   We focus on clients' end business goals, not
global talent as an end in itself.
NEO GROUP’S SINGULAR FOCUS SINCE 1999
We deliver results through three distinct and linked solutions and services:
ADVISORY SERVICES GOVERNANCE
SOLUTIONS
•  Design
•  Run and Support
•  Ongoing Resource,
Contract and Performance
Management Services
SUPPLY MONITORING
& ANALYTICS
•  Country
•  City
•  Supplier
•  Real-Time Event Alerts
•  Subscription-Based
Monitoring
© 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary
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TODAY’S PRESENTER
Christine Ferrusi Ross
Christine is a senior vice president at
Neo Group. She’s passionate about
helping clients solve complex global
risk, sourcing, and supplier issues to
achieve better business results.
Christine has helped some of the
largest companies in the world
operationalize their supplier risk
efforts, and she’s a recognized
expert in the space. She’s been
quoted in the Wall Street Journal, on
CNBC, and other national media
regarding supplier risk, outsourcing,
and globalization.
© 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary
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Ø Major global events that affected location risks
Ø Using location-specific information to lower
supplier-related risk
Ø Taking action on location risks
AGENDA
© 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary
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THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
What risks matter?
Assign responsibility for
tracking and taking
action on the risks
Decide the risk
indicators (with specifics
like percentages, not
“declining”)
Create an action plan for
what to do for each risk
as it happens
Track risk data
Take action as pre-
determined
Feedback loop, including
process changes and
supplier/contract
changes
© 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary
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A FRAMEWORK HELPS STRUCTURE RISK MANAGEMENT
Supply WisdomSM Real-Time Risk Model
RISK
RATING
NEGLIGIBLE LOW MODERATE HIGH EXTREME
SUPPLIER
RISKS
FINANCIAL CLIENTS PEOPLE ALLIANCES
SERVICE
CAPABILITY
GOVERNANCE INFRASTRUCTURE THOUGHT
LEADERSHIP
CITY
RISKS
MACRO-ECONOMIC FINANCIAL BUSINESS INFRASTRUCTURE
GEO-POLITICAL LEGAL SCALABILITY QUALITY OF LIFE
COUNTRY
RISKS
MACRO-ECONOMIC FINANCIAL BUSINESS INFRASTRUCTURE
GEO-POLITICAL LEGAL SCALABILITY QUALITY OF LIFE
2 4 6 8 10
© 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary
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SAMPLE TRIGGER EVENTS
•  Credit Ratings / Downgrades
•  Changes in Budget
•  Stock Market Volatility
•  Tax Changes
•  New Special Economic Zones
•  Cyber Legislation
•  Visa Changes
•  Power Imbalances
•  Geopolitical Events
•  Labor Union Formation & Strikes
•  Key Policy Changes
•  New Center formation
GEOGRAPHIES
© 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary
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Q1 UPDATE: GLOBAL LOCATION RISKS
Q1 Risk Events
High Impact Medium Impact Low Impact
Source: Supply Wisdom Q1 2015
© 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary
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Q1 UPDATE: GLOBAL LOCATION RISKS
•  All of the high-impact events were in geo-political risk
category
•  Medium-impact events were spread across
categories, like macro-economic risk, infrastructure
risk, and geo-political risk
•  Risk categories that had only low-impact events
included scalability risk
© 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary
10
10
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THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
What risks
matter?
Assign
responsibility for
tracking and taking
action on the risks
Decide the risk
indicators (with
specifics like
percentages, not
“declining”)
Create an action plan for
what to do for each risk
as it happens
Track risk data
Take action as pre-
determined
Feedback loop,
including process
changes and
supplier/contract
changes
© 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary
11
11
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MEDIUM-IMPACT EVENTS: THE TRICKY ONES
•  Low-impact events require further monitoring for trend/
pattern identification but need no immediate action
•  High-impact events often present a clear course of
action (or if severe enough, prevents a proactive
response)
•  Medium impact events aren’t clear cut. They’re neither
scary nor forgettable.
•  Do medium-impact events need a response? In what
timeframe is a response needed?
•  Too often, the required response is clear in hindsight
but not in the moment
© 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary
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SAMPLE MEDIUM-IMPACT EVENTS: Q1
•  Argentina erupts in protests over mysterious death of
prosecutor
•  Brazil’s annual inflation rate hits highest level in almost
10 years
•  China blocks VPN services that helped to users
access Google and Facebook
•  Multiple power shortages and power tariff hikes in
Manila
•  Swine flu deaths in multiple Indian cities
© 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary
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ACTION DEPENDS ON RISK TOLERANCE
•  Tolerance for location risk can be determined by
items like:
–  Whether you sell into that location or only drive
operations there
–  If it’s a captive-center or work there is done by a
third party
–  Ease of switching to another location
–  Familiarity with that location
© 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary
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EXAMPLE: ACTION PLAN FOR MANILA POWER ISSUES
•  Sample business: UK-based company does business in Asia, but
Philippines is primarily a vendor delivery location
•  Event(s): Multiple power shortages and power tariff hikes in
Manila
•  Risk tolerance factors lead the company to want to take a
moderate approach. It’s primarily a third-party location, but that
third party is critical to the company’s operations
•  Action steps: research alternative power generation options,
evaluate internal ability to switch work to other third parties that
the company already works with, co-create risk mitigation plan
with supplier
•  Final outcome: decision to move to alternative location if power
shortage happens twice more in six months OR tariff increases
again
© 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary
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EXAMPLE ACTION PLAN FOR INDIA/US: H-1B VISAS
•  Sample business: US-based company that uses Indian
resources but sells primarily in the US and Europe
•  Event: US Extends Eligibility for Employment Authorization
For Dependents of H-1B Nonimmigrants (H-4 Visas)
•  Risk tolerance factors: High cost of switching resources to
other locations, high ability to switch among vendors but
not locations, since this is Indian resources in the US,
familiarity is high
•  Action steps: discuss with current suppliers how many
resources might benefit from the change, proactively look
to recruit spouses and dependents immediately (change
becomes effective May 25, 2016)
•  Final outcome: TBD
© 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary
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BENEFIT OF PROACTIVE LOCATION RISK MANAGEMENT
•  Smoother operations: Fewer disruptions to delivery or
supply
•  Competitive advantage: Proactive management likely
means you were able to achieve a better outcome than
your competitors in that location or working with that
supplier
•  More options: Faster, more proactive response means you
have more options than if you had waited (regardless of
what competitors do)
•  Ability to innovate: not all risk-events are negative, some
are positive, like a country building more infrastructure in
key locations. Looking for risk-lowering events helps you
create opportunities for your firm
© 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary
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QUESTIONS
© 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary
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THANK YOU
NEO GROUP GLOBAL
HEADQUARTERS
6200 Stoneridge Mall Road, 3rd Floor
Pleasanton, CA 94588, USA
ASIA-PACIFIC
HEADQUARTERS
No.13, B-2, 1st floor, C Block
Embassy Heights, Magrath Road
Bangalore-560 025, India
AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
AUSTIN, TEXAS
BOGOTA, COLOMBIA
LONDON, UK
NEW YORK, USA
ATLANTA, USA
SAO PAOLO, BRAZIL
SILICON VALLEY, USA
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA
CHRISTINE FERRUSI ROSS
Partner & SVP
christine@neogroup.com
781.405.9851
www.NeoGroup.com
www.SupplyWisdom.com
info@neogroup.com

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What to Watch: Global Risk Update, Q1 2015

  • 1. WHAT TO WATCH: GLOBAL RISK UPDATE Q1 2015 Christine Ferrusi Ross, Partner & SVP, Neo GroupMarch 26, 2015
  • 2. © 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary 2 2 Powered by •  Globalization Strategy •  Sourcing •  Location Strategy •  Health Checks •  Renegotiations •  Governance "   Since 1999, we have been helping clients accelerate benefits and minimize risks associated with global talent and sourcing. "   We have a singular focus on the global services supply chain. "   We achieve outcomes through deep IP, real-time analytics, globally recognized experts, proven methodologies and co-creation with our clients. "   We focus on clients' end business goals, not global talent as an end in itself. NEO GROUP’S SINGULAR FOCUS SINCE 1999 We deliver results through three distinct and linked solutions and services: ADVISORY SERVICES GOVERNANCE SOLUTIONS •  Design •  Run and Support •  Ongoing Resource, Contract and Performance Management Services SUPPLY MONITORING & ANALYTICS •  Country •  City •  Supplier •  Real-Time Event Alerts •  Subscription-Based Monitoring
  • 3. © 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary 3 3 Powered by TODAY’S PRESENTER Christine Ferrusi Ross Christine is a senior vice president at Neo Group. She’s passionate about helping clients solve complex global risk, sourcing, and supplier issues to achieve better business results. Christine has helped some of the largest companies in the world operationalize their supplier risk efforts, and she’s a recognized expert in the space. She’s been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, on CNBC, and other national media regarding supplier risk, outsourcing, and globalization.
  • 4. © 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary 4 4 Powered by Ø Major global events that affected location risks Ø Using location-specific information to lower supplier-related risk Ø Taking action on location risks AGENDA
  • 5. © 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary 5 5 Powered by THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS What risks matter? Assign responsibility for tracking and taking action on the risks Decide the risk indicators (with specifics like percentages, not “declining”) Create an action plan for what to do for each risk as it happens Track risk data Take action as pre- determined Feedback loop, including process changes and supplier/contract changes
  • 6. © 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary 6 6 Powered by A FRAMEWORK HELPS STRUCTURE RISK MANAGEMENT Supply WisdomSM Real-Time Risk Model RISK RATING NEGLIGIBLE LOW MODERATE HIGH EXTREME SUPPLIER RISKS FINANCIAL CLIENTS PEOPLE ALLIANCES SERVICE CAPABILITY GOVERNANCE INFRASTRUCTURE THOUGHT LEADERSHIP CITY RISKS MACRO-ECONOMIC FINANCIAL BUSINESS INFRASTRUCTURE GEO-POLITICAL LEGAL SCALABILITY QUALITY OF LIFE COUNTRY RISKS MACRO-ECONOMIC FINANCIAL BUSINESS INFRASTRUCTURE GEO-POLITICAL LEGAL SCALABILITY QUALITY OF LIFE 2 4 6 8 10
  • 7. © 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary 7 7 Powered by SAMPLE TRIGGER EVENTS •  Credit Ratings / Downgrades •  Changes in Budget •  Stock Market Volatility •  Tax Changes •  New Special Economic Zones •  Cyber Legislation •  Visa Changes •  Power Imbalances •  Geopolitical Events •  Labor Union Formation & Strikes •  Key Policy Changes •  New Center formation GEOGRAPHIES
  • 8. © 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary 8 8 Powered by Q1 UPDATE: GLOBAL LOCATION RISKS Q1 Risk Events High Impact Medium Impact Low Impact Source: Supply Wisdom Q1 2015
  • 9. © 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary 9 9 Powered by Q1 UPDATE: GLOBAL LOCATION RISKS •  All of the high-impact events were in geo-political risk category •  Medium-impact events were spread across categories, like macro-economic risk, infrastructure risk, and geo-political risk •  Risk categories that had only low-impact events included scalability risk
  • 10. © 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary 10 10 Powered by THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS What risks matter? Assign responsibility for tracking and taking action on the risks Decide the risk indicators (with specifics like percentages, not “declining”) Create an action plan for what to do for each risk as it happens Track risk data Take action as pre- determined Feedback loop, including process changes and supplier/contract changes
  • 11. © 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary 11 11 Powered by MEDIUM-IMPACT EVENTS: THE TRICKY ONES •  Low-impact events require further monitoring for trend/ pattern identification but need no immediate action •  High-impact events often present a clear course of action (or if severe enough, prevents a proactive response) •  Medium impact events aren’t clear cut. They’re neither scary nor forgettable. •  Do medium-impact events need a response? In what timeframe is a response needed? •  Too often, the required response is clear in hindsight but not in the moment
  • 12. © 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary 12 12 Powered by SAMPLE MEDIUM-IMPACT EVENTS: Q1 •  Argentina erupts in protests over mysterious death of prosecutor •  Brazil’s annual inflation rate hits highest level in almost 10 years •  China blocks VPN services that helped to users access Google and Facebook •  Multiple power shortages and power tariff hikes in Manila •  Swine flu deaths in multiple Indian cities
  • 13. © 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary 13 13 Powered by ACTION DEPENDS ON RISK TOLERANCE •  Tolerance for location risk can be determined by items like: –  Whether you sell into that location or only drive operations there –  If it’s a captive-center or work there is done by a third party –  Ease of switching to another location –  Familiarity with that location
  • 14. © 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary 14 14 Powered by EXAMPLE: ACTION PLAN FOR MANILA POWER ISSUES •  Sample business: UK-based company does business in Asia, but Philippines is primarily a vendor delivery location •  Event(s): Multiple power shortages and power tariff hikes in Manila •  Risk tolerance factors lead the company to want to take a moderate approach. It’s primarily a third-party location, but that third party is critical to the company’s operations •  Action steps: research alternative power generation options, evaluate internal ability to switch work to other third parties that the company already works with, co-create risk mitigation plan with supplier •  Final outcome: decision to move to alternative location if power shortage happens twice more in six months OR tariff increases again
  • 15. © 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary 15 15 Powered by EXAMPLE ACTION PLAN FOR INDIA/US: H-1B VISAS •  Sample business: US-based company that uses Indian resources but sells primarily in the US and Europe •  Event: US Extends Eligibility for Employment Authorization For Dependents of H-1B Nonimmigrants (H-4 Visas) •  Risk tolerance factors: High cost of switching resources to other locations, high ability to switch among vendors but not locations, since this is Indian resources in the US, familiarity is high •  Action steps: discuss with current suppliers how many resources might benefit from the change, proactively look to recruit spouses and dependents immediately (change becomes effective May 25, 2016) •  Final outcome: TBD
  • 16. © 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary 16 16 Powered by BENEFIT OF PROACTIVE LOCATION RISK MANAGEMENT •  Smoother operations: Fewer disruptions to delivery or supply •  Competitive advantage: Proactive management likely means you were able to achieve a better outcome than your competitors in that location or working with that supplier •  More options: Faster, more proactive response means you have more options than if you had waited (regardless of what competitors do) •  Ability to innovate: not all risk-events are negative, some are positive, like a country building more infrastructure in key locations. Looking for risk-lowering events helps you create opportunities for your firm
  • 17. © 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary 17 17 Powered by QUESTIONS
  • 18. © 2015 Neo Group Inc. Proprietary 18 18 Powered by THANK YOU NEO GROUP GLOBAL HEADQUARTERS 6200 Stoneridge Mall Road, 3rd Floor Pleasanton, CA 94588, USA ASIA-PACIFIC HEADQUARTERS No.13, B-2, 1st floor, C Block Embassy Heights, Magrath Road Bangalore-560 025, India AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS AUSTIN, TEXAS BOGOTA, COLOMBIA LONDON, UK NEW YORK, USA ATLANTA, USA SAO PAOLO, BRAZIL SILICON VALLEY, USA SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA CHRISTINE FERRUSI ROSS Partner & SVP christine@neogroup.com 781.405.9851 www.NeoGroup.com www.SupplyWisdom.com info@neogroup.com