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Writing a winning
investment story

          by Vladimir Nesterenko


  Presented at the Kyiv School of Economics
              February 7, 2013
Starting point
• Investment story – an investment rationale, a part of proposal
  made by an entrepreneur or its designee (e.g., investment
  bank) to potential investors. The ‘investment story’ is
  supposed (and expected) to answer the question ‘WHY TO
  INVEST’.
• For this presentation, we’ll assume the investment story is
  prepared for Private Equity investors.
• Private Equity investors – funds that make investments
  directly into private companies or conduct buyouts of public
  companies that result in a delisting of public equity. [1,2]
The fund’s funnel
       You are here

           Leads                Proposal

         Prospects        Formal criteria met
        Opportunities     Business criteria met

            Deals                 Deal
    You want to be here
Chance of success
                           Probability of getting
      You are here          to each category*

          Leads                      99%

        Prospects                    50%
       Opportunities                 10%

           Deals                       1%
                         * Numbers are indicative, for
   You want to be here        illustration only
Who decides?
They do?
Not (yet)
Help him
a) Match formal criteria
Investment criteria
          if you match these, make it clear
          from the very start

Formal                                Business
•   Company size
•   KYC (oligarchs, …)
•   Industry                          •   Solid business opportunity
•   Ticket size (e.g. >$10mn)         •   Leading player in its market
•   Geography                         •   High quality management
•   Investment pattern (e.g.,         •   Manageable risks
    growth, value)                    •   Clear exit strategy
•   Maturity
•   Years profitable (e.g. >3)
b) Stand out
( he wants to stand out too )
FAIL
10 shortcuts to
writing a story that
     stands out
1. Brevity, the
    soul of wit
Magic tool: DELETE




                The ad captured a week
                ago from the Google
                search screen
2. Cut to the chase
Magic tool: “So what?”
• “The Company is launching two-three new products
  a year.” – So what?
• -> “Launching two-three new products a year, unlike
  its peers, the Company secures its market share.”

• “We’ll push the share of export sales to 40% over the
  next five years.” – So what?
• -> “By increasing the share of exports to 40% in five
  years, we’ll double our gross margin.”
3. Be specific
Magic tool: W-Questions
• “By increasing the share of exports to 40%, we’ll double our
  gross margin.”

• W-Questions: When? What [is the current share]? How?
  Where [exports will go]? Why [that will prop up margins]?
  Who? (addressed)

• -> “By entering India market, we’ll increase the share of
  exports from the last years’ 10% to 40% in 2017 and double
  our gross margin.” (yet the “Why” question remains…)
[3,4]                                    EGGHEADS
   Vagueness 3D                                                                  ONLY
                                                                               READING

      OMITTED
                   Reference index
  “EDUCATION”                                BEING SPECIFIC:

                                             “Kyiv School of Economics’ MA program in
  “MA IN KYIV”                               Business Economics will hold an admission
“MA PROGRAM”                                 test in Kyiv on July 4-6, 2013.”

                                             BEING NOT SPECIFIC:
 “MA PROGRAM                                 Dimension: Reference index
  IN ECONOMICS                               “KSE will hold an admission test in Kyiv on July
        IN KYIV”                             4-6, 2013.”

                                             Dimension: Modality
                                             “Kyiv School of Economics may hold an
                                             admission test in Kyiv on July 4-6, 2013.”

                                             Dimension: Quantor
                                             “Kyiv School of Economics usually holds an
                                             admission test in Kyiv in July.”
Associations: Pain & Gain
Pain                      Gain
• Hard to construct
• May be not understood   • Convincing
• May be incorrectly
  understood, even to     • Short
  the opposite


         For advanced writers only.
[5]

“Children’s boots are on sale.
         Unworn.”
[6]

  “The last man on Earth sat alone in a
room. There was a knock on the door…”
Associations: How they work
• Psychologists call it “transderivational search”

• Wiki: “… Unlike usual searches, which look for literal (i.e. exact, logical,
  or regular expression) matches, a transderivational search is a search for a
  possible meaning or possible match as part of communication, and
  without which an incoming communication cannot be made any sense of
  whatsoever. It is thus an integral part of processing language, and of
  attaching meaning to communication. [7]

• Our brains do it all the time
• Problem: you can’t get into a reader’s mind
                                                               EGGHEADS
                                                                  ONLY
• It’s an ART to make reader attach correct meaning
                                                                READING
3. Advocacy, not
description
Magic tool: Backward induction
• “By entering India market, we’ll increase the share of
  exports from the current 10% to 40% in 2017 and
  double our gross margin.”

• Problem: your reader seeks effects first, then causes
• Solution: start from effects

• “We’ll double our gross margin by 2017 by entering
  the Indian market and increasing the share of
  exports from the current 10% to 40%.”
4. Keep it
     real
5. Address obvious
weaknesses
6. Don’t preach to
    the converted
7. Take
responsibility
Magic tool: No passive voice
• “The share of exports will be increased from the
  current 10% to 40% in 2017.”

• Problem: Sounds like one avoids responsibility
• Solution: Show it’s not the case -- say this is YOU who
  will make it happen.

• -> “The management is implementing its action plan
  to increase the share of exports from the current
  10% to 40% in 2017.”
8. Avoid
buzzwords
An advise from Dave
“Clear your vocabularies of any superlatives, clichés, or
any over-used expressions that can’t be backed up, he
adds. Avoid using terms like ‘the best’,
‘groundbreaking,’ ‘cutting-edge’, and ‘world class.’
Investors see those words day in and day out and
eventually they lose meaning.”

Dave Lavinsky, president of Growthink, a Los Angeles-
based company that helps entrepreneurs develop
business plans and raise capital. [8]
9. Test it
Tests
• Summarize the story in 2-3 sentences and see
  whether the summary reflects the logic of the entire
  story. (Normally it’s not the case)
• Ask your colleague (better a junior one) to read the
  summary and see how long does it takes to read it.
  If more than 2 min – there is something wrong
• Get feedback: show your story to colleagues, room
  mates, taxi driver, etc. If your grandma gets it – be
  sure your story falls into the winning 1%
10. Design matters
Formatting tips
•   Bullet points
•   Key numbers
•   Rule of thirds [9]
•   Respect white space
•   No double accent
•   Three colors max
•   BE CONSISTENT
Roundup
Rules:                             Magic tools:
1. Brevity                         •   DELETE
2. Cut to the chase                •   “So what?”
3. Advocacy, not description       •   W-Questions
4. Be specific                     •   Backward induction
5. Keep it real                    •   No passive voice
6. Address obvious weaknesses
7. Don’t preach to the converted
8. Take responsibility
9. Avoid buzzwords
10. Design matters
Exercise
Here is one of the bullet points from an Investment
Summary – use ‘magic tools’ to make it more specific
and responsible:

• The Company strategy assumes expanding its
  operations to Kazakhstan, to tap its growing retail
  market.
Cheat sheet
Rules:                             Magic tools:
1. Brevity                         •   DELETE
2. Cut to the chase                •   ‘So what?’
3. Advocacy, not description       •   W-Questions
4. Be specific                     •   Backward induction
5. Keep it real                    •   No passive voice
6. Address obvious weaknesses
7. Don’t preach to the converted
8. Take responsibility
9. Avoid buzzwords
10. Design matters
Exercise (solution)
• DELETE: “The Company strategy assumes expanding its operations to
  Kazakhstan, to tap its growing retail market.” -> “The Company will tap the
  Kazakhstan’s growing retail market.”

• ‘So what’: -> “The Company will tap the Kazakhstan’s growing retail
  market to increase it’s sales in CIS.”

• W-Qns: -> “In 2014, the Company will tap the Kazakhstan’s $20bn retail
  market to increase it’s sales in CIS by 10% by 2017.”

• Backward induction: “The Company targets increasing its sales in CIS by
  10% by 2017 on entering Kazakhstan’s $20bn retail market.”

• No passive voice: OK
References
1.   http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/privateequity.asp#axzz2K8rrYzic
2.   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_private_equity_firms
3.   http://www.center-nlp.ru/library/s55/nlp/meta_model.html
4.   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methods_of_neuro-linguistic_programming
5.   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernest_Hemingway
6.   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knock_(short_story)
7.   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transderivational_search
8.   http://www.inc.com/guides/2010/09/how-to-write-an-executive-
     summary.html
9.   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_thirds
About myself
•   The founder of Symmetric – the firm that will make strategy consulting available
    for mid-sized companies

•   10 years in Finance (corporate and investment banking) x industry experience
     –   Local banks, Citibank
     –   Concorde Capital
     –   BG Capital
     –   Geo Alliance Group (EastOne /Arawak Energy)
     –   Tech startups


•   Two MS’s, in Economics and Finance, from EERC (currently Kyiv School of
    Economics) and Kyiv National University of Economics. Stanford’s Tech
    Entrepreneurship course (via Coursera)

•   Get connected: ua.linkedin.com/in/vladimirnesterenko
The presentation
   will be available on

slideshare.net/nesterenkov
            and
     finmodels.com.ua

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Winning investment stories

  • 1. Writing a winning investment story by Vladimir Nesterenko Presented at the Kyiv School of Economics February 7, 2013
  • 2. Starting point • Investment story – an investment rationale, a part of proposal made by an entrepreneur or its designee (e.g., investment bank) to potential investors. The ‘investment story’ is supposed (and expected) to answer the question ‘WHY TO INVEST’. • For this presentation, we’ll assume the investment story is prepared for Private Equity investors. • Private Equity investors – funds that make investments directly into private companies or conduct buyouts of public companies that result in a delisting of public equity. [1,2]
  • 3. The fund’s funnel You are here Leads Proposal Prospects Formal criteria met Opportunities Business criteria met Deals Deal You want to be here
  • 4. Chance of success Probability of getting You are here to each category* Leads 99% Prospects 50% Opportunities 10% Deals 1% * Numbers are indicative, for You want to be here illustration only
  • 9. a) Match formal criteria
  • 10. Investment criteria if you match these, make it clear from the very start Formal Business • Company size • KYC (oligarchs, …) • Industry • Solid business opportunity • Ticket size (e.g. >$10mn) • Leading player in its market • Geography • High quality management • Investment pattern (e.g., • Manageable risks growth, value) • Clear exit strategy • Maturity • Years profitable (e.g. >3)
  • 12. ( he wants to stand out too )
  • 13. FAIL
  • 14. 10 shortcuts to writing a story that stands out
  • 15. 1. Brevity, the soul of wit
  • 16. Magic tool: DELETE The ad captured a week ago from the Google search screen
  • 17. 2. Cut to the chase
  • 18. Magic tool: “So what?” • “The Company is launching two-three new products a year.” – So what? • -> “Launching two-three new products a year, unlike its peers, the Company secures its market share.” • “We’ll push the share of export sales to 40% over the next five years.” – So what? • -> “By increasing the share of exports to 40% in five years, we’ll double our gross margin.”
  • 20. Magic tool: W-Questions • “By increasing the share of exports to 40%, we’ll double our gross margin.” • W-Questions: When? What [is the current share]? How? Where [exports will go]? Why [that will prop up margins]? Who? (addressed) • -> “By entering India market, we’ll increase the share of exports from the last years’ 10% to 40% in 2017 and double our gross margin.” (yet the “Why” question remains…)
  • 21. [3,4] EGGHEADS Vagueness 3D ONLY READING OMITTED Reference index “EDUCATION” BEING SPECIFIC: “Kyiv School of Economics’ MA program in “MA IN KYIV” Business Economics will hold an admission “MA PROGRAM” test in Kyiv on July 4-6, 2013.” BEING NOT SPECIFIC: “MA PROGRAM Dimension: Reference index IN ECONOMICS “KSE will hold an admission test in Kyiv on July IN KYIV” 4-6, 2013.” Dimension: Modality “Kyiv School of Economics may hold an admission test in Kyiv on July 4-6, 2013.” Dimension: Quantor “Kyiv School of Economics usually holds an admission test in Kyiv in July.”
  • 22. Associations: Pain & Gain Pain Gain • Hard to construct • May be not understood • Convincing • May be incorrectly understood, even to • Short the opposite For advanced writers only.
  • 23. [5] “Children’s boots are on sale. Unworn.”
  • 24. [6] “The last man on Earth sat alone in a room. There was a knock on the door…”
  • 25. Associations: How they work • Psychologists call it “transderivational search” • Wiki: “… Unlike usual searches, which look for literal (i.e. exact, logical, or regular expression) matches, a transderivational search is a search for a possible meaning or possible match as part of communication, and without which an incoming communication cannot be made any sense of whatsoever. It is thus an integral part of processing language, and of attaching meaning to communication. [7] • Our brains do it all the time • Problem: you can’t get into a reader’s mind EGGHEADS ONLY • It’s an ART to make reader attach correct meaning READING
  • 27. Magic tool: Backward induction • “By entering India market, we’ll increase the share of exports from the current 10% to 40% in 2017 and double our gross margin.” • Problem: your reader seeks effects first, then causes • Solution: start from effects • “We’ll double our gross margin by 2017 by entering the Indian market and increasing the share of exports from the current 10% to 40%.”
  • 28. 4. Keep it real
  • 30. 6. Don’t preach to the converted
  • 32. Magic tool: No passive voice • “The share of exports will be increased from the current 10% to 40% in 2017.” • Problem: Sounds like one avoids responsibility • Solution: Show it’s not the case -- say this is YOU who will make it happen. • -> “The management is implementing its action plan to increase the share of exports from the current 10% to 40% in 2017.”
  • 34. An advise from Dave “Clear your vocabularies of any superlatives, clichés, or any over-used expressions that can’t be backed up, he adds. Avoid using terms like ‘the best’, ‘groundbreaking,’ ‘cutting-edge’, and ‘world class.’ Investors see those words day in and day out and eventually they lose meaning.” Dave Lavinsky, president of Growthink, a Los Angeles- based company that helps entrepreneurs develop business plans and raise capital. [8]
  • 36. Tests • Summarize the story in 2-3 sentences and see whether the summary reflects the logic of the entire story. (Normally it’s not the case) • Ask your colleague (better a junior one) to read the summary and see how long does it takes to read it. If more than 2 min – there is something wrong • Get feedback: show your story to colleagues, room mates, taxi driver, etc. If your grandma gets it – be sure your story falls into the winning 1%
  • 38. Formatting tips • Bullet points • Key numbers • Rule of thirds [9] • Respect white space • No double accent • Three colors max • BE CONSISTENT
  • 39. Roundup Rules: Magic tools: 1. Brevity • DELETE 2. Cut to the chase • “So what?” 3. Advocacy, not description • W-Questions 4. Be specific • Backward induction 5. Keep it real • No passive voice 6. Address obvious weaknesses 7. Don’t preach to the converted 8. Take responsibility 9. Avoid buzzwords 10. Design matters
  • 40. Exercise Here is one of the bullet points from an Investment Summary – use ‘magic tools’ to make it more specific and responsible: • The Company strategy assumes expanding its operations to Kazakhstan, to tap its growing retail market.
  • 41. Cheat sheet Rules: Magic tools: 1. Brevity • DELETE 2. Cut to the chase • ‘So what?’ 3. Advocacy, not description • W-Questions 4. Be specific • Backward induction 5. Keep it real • No passive voice 6. Address obvious weaknesses 7. Don’t preach to the converted 8. Take responsibility 9. Avoid buzzwords 10. Design matters
  • 42. Exercise (solution) • DELETE: “The Company strategy assumes expanding its operations to Kazakhstan, to tap its growing retail market.” -> “The Company will tap the Kazakhstan’s growing retail market.” • ‘So what’: -> “The Company will tap the Kazakhstan’s growing retail market to increase it’s sales in CIS.” • W-Qns: -> “In 2014, the Company will tap the Kazakhstan’s $20bn retail market to increase it’s sales in CIS by 10% by 2017.” • Backward induction: “The Company targets increasing its sales in CIS by 10% by 2017 on entering Kazakhstan’s $20bn retail market.” • No passive voice: OK
  • 43. References 1. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/privateequity.asp#axzz2K8rrYzic 2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_private_equity_firms 3. http://www.center-nlp.ru/library/s55/nlp/meta_model.html 4. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methods_of_neuro-linguistic_programming 5. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernest_Hemingway 6. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knock_(short_story) 7. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transderivational_search 8. http://www.inc.com/guides/2010/09/how-to-write-an-executive- summary.html 9. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_thirds
  • 44. About myself • The founder of Symmetric – the firm that will make strategy consulting available for mid-sized companies • 10 years in Finance (corporate and investment banking) x industry experience – Local banks, Citibank – Concorde Capital – BG Capital – Geo Alliance Group (EastOne /Arawak Energy) – Tech startups • Two MS’s, in Economics and Finance, from EERC (currently Kyiv School of Economics) and Kyiv National University of Economics. Stanford’s Tech Entrepreneurship course (via Coursera) • Get connected: ua.linkedin.com/in/vladimirnesterenko
  • 45. The presentation will be available on slideshare.net/nesterenkov and finmodels.com.ua