In today's low interest rate and elevated global-debt environment, it can be difficult to know where to invest. Discover Perpetual's methodology on how to identify high-quality businesses with consistent cash flow and earnings growth.
8. KEY THEMES IN GLOBAL EQUITIES
• Global markets experience sharp corrections in Q4 2018
• China/US trade war creating volatility in economically sensitive sectors and regions, not
necessarily reflective of fundamentals.
• Defensive sectors in Europe continue to perform consistently
• Private equity activity has increased amidst attractive short term valuations
• Business confidence continues to weaken, yet consumer spending remains robust
• Global manufacturing and growth continues to decelerate
• Credit conditions in the US are better than deceleration would suggest
• The geopolitical remains on close watch
8
9. VALUE VS GROWTH: WHAT NORMALLY HAPPENS NOW?
WE ARE DUE A SHIFT FROM GROWTH TO VALUE
9
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
01/1985 01/1990 01/1995 01/2000 01/2005 01/2010 01/2015
Value dominates Value dominates
Growth dominates Growth dominates
10 Year Value vs Growth CAGR
Source: Perpetual Investment Management Limited. FactSet
10. US STOCK MARKET DE-COUPLED, NOW RECOUPLED?
10
Source: FactSet.
11. VALUATIONS BY STYLE AND GEOGRAPHY
11
Source: FactSet as of 31/10/2018. NTM P/E is market price per share divided by expected earnings per share over the next 12 months.
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
12. 12
Regional breakdown as at 28 February 2019
WE HAVE INCREASED OUR WEIGHT TO ASIA
DUE TO ATTRACTIVE VALUATIONS
GLOBAL SHARE FUND
Source: RBC
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
NORTH
AMERICA
EUROPE EX-UK CASH ASIA PACIFIC
EX-JAPAN
JAPAN UK AUSTRALIA OTHER
Fund Benchmark
13. GLOBAL SHARE FUND
13
SECTOR FUND WEIGHT % STOCK EXAMPLE
Consumer discretionary 15.2% Disney, Whirlpool
Online advertising and transaction
businesses
13.4% Alphabet, Ebay, Alibaba
Consumer staples 12.9% Britvic, Nomad, Mondelez
Software/IT Services 10.6% Oracle
Banks 7.4% Wells Fargo, Bank of America
Healthcare 6.1% Sanofi Aventis, Mckesson
Telcos 5.7% Verizon
Industrials 5.4% Siemens
Stock Exchanges 3.8% Nasdaq
Energy 2.9% Total SA
Diversified Financials 1.7% Julius Baer
Materials 1.5% DowDuPont
Cash and other 12.3%
Sector breakdown as at 28 February 2019
Source: Thinkfolio. Numbers might not be whole due to roundings.
14. 14
CONSUMER – WHERE IS THE VALUE?
Consumer
Market Capitalisation
(USD $m)
P/E P/B
Coca-Cola Company 190,021 21.5 10.2
Pinnacle Foods, Inc. 7,847 22.7 3.3
Nomad Foods Ltd. 3,501 14.7 1.5
Britvic plc 1,999 14.0 5.9
Source: Perpetual & FactSet
15. PROCESS IN ACTION – NOMAD FOODS
15
CORE BUSINESS:
Nomad Foods is a European frozen foods producer,
headquartered in the UK.
SECTOR: Consumer Staples
INITIAL ENTRY PRICE: USD12.17
Source: Perpetual & FactSet
WHY WE LIKE IT?
• Leading brands with strong market shares in frozen
foods in the UK, central Europe and Scandinavia
• Owner managed business with the Chairman and
executive team owning over 10% of the company
• Trading at a steep discount to consumer staples
companies despite growing at a quicker rate to peers
16. Calls and meetings undertaken as part
of the process:
- Nomad IR on many occasions
- Nomad CEO
- NOMAD previous and current CFOs
- Former CEO at Iglo Foods
- Former Senior Buying Manager at
ASDA Stores
- CEO at Frosta AG
- Head of Meat, Fish and Poultry at
Sainsbury’s Supermarkets
- Buying Manager - Beef and Lamb at
Tesco
16
PROCESS IN ACTION – NOMAD FOODS
17. PROCESS IN ACTION – WHIRLPOOL
17
Source: Perpetual & FactSet
WHY WE LIKE IT?
• High market share in US, strong regional footprint
(#1 or #2 positions)
• Well-known, quality brands
• Product innovation/R&D
• Lowest cost player, industry-leading EBIT margins
• Excellent management and culture
• High FCF, returns to shareholders
• Cheap valuation
CORE BUSINESS:
World’s leading manufacturer of major home
appliances
SECTOR: Consumer Discretionary
18. 18
GLOBAL BRAND PORTFOLIO WITH LEADING MARKET
POSITIONS
Premium
(15%)
Mass
(75%)
Value
(10%)
Brand portfolio targets over 90% of consumers, and includes 7 with more than $1 billion in sales.
2016 actual
Source: Whirlpool Corporation. Investor Day – 4th May, 2017.
19. PROCESS IN ACTION – TELEPIZZA
19
Source: Perpetual & FactSet
WHY WE LIKE IT?
• Market leader in Iberia
• Largest master franchisee of Pizza Hut, running their
LatAm operations
• Majority market share in core markets
• Positioned for growth through digitisation and further
global expansion
• Strong balance sheet and good management team
• Operational excellence in franchise model
CORE BUSINESS:
Telepizza is the largest non-US heritage pizza
delivery company worldwide
SECTOR: Consumer Discretionary
INITIAL ENTRY PRICE: EUR 4.26
20. 20
WHERE IS THE VALUE TODAY - TECHNOLOGY?
Handset manufacturers E-commerce Search Engines
Apple Samsung Amazon Alibaba Alphabet Baidu
Market capitalization (USD bn) 1,073 278 872 382 776 71
P/E 18.9 6.2 103.4 26.7 28.2 20.5
P/B 8.6 1.5 32.0 6.5 5.1 3.8
Source: Perpetual & FactSet
21. PROCESS IN ACTION - NINTENDO
21
Source: Perpetual & FactSet.
CORE BUSINESS:
Video games.
SECTOR: Information Technology
INITIAL ENTRY PRICE: ¥36,467.73
WHY WE LIKE IT?
• Market is updating the potential of the Nintendo
Switch.
• Console will have a much greater third party
library due to architectural changes to the
Switch that make it easier to develop for.
• This will lengthen the console cycle and
positions it as a high-margin platform business.
22. PROCESS IN ACTION – SYNOPSYS
22
Source: Perpetual & FactSet
WHY WE LIKE IT?
• Global leader with 30% share globally
• Number 2 player very rational and both are gaining share
• The cost of maintaining leading edge technology and a breadth of
technology mean barriers to entry are extremely high
• End market demand is very healthy and growing driven by the global
need for better chips to improve data processing in all its forms
• Excellent, long term focussed management and culture
CORE BUSINESS:
Leading provider of design software and
IP to the global semiconductor industry.
“Picks and shovels for the digital world”
SECTOR: Technology
23. PROCESS IN ACTION – EURONET WORLDWIDE
23
Source: Perpetual & FactSet
WHY WE LIKE IT?
• Core competitive advantage in technology across all divisions
• Emerging market exposure via Eastern Europe, LatAm and India
• Electronic funds transfer growing via ATM rollout and ATM
outsourcing
• Money transfer business, Ria, global #3 and winning share
• Strong management team that have “skin in the game”
• Net cash balance sheet
• High FCF, focus on returns to shareholders via buybacks
• Cheap valuation at 16x FY20 with 20% EPS CAGR
CORE BUSINESS:
Global electronic payment, money
transfer and online payment processor
SECTOR: Information Technology
24. Strong technology offering spans all 3 divisions
• Electronic Funds Transfer
• Money Transfer
• epay
24
PROCESS IN ACTION – EURONET WORLDWIDE
Source: Euronet Worldwide
26. FUND
Class A %
FUND
Class W %^
INDEX %* EXCESS %
1 Month 5.1 - 5.6 -0.4
3 Months 8.6 - 5.3 3.3
6 Months 0.2 - -1.7 1.9
1 Year P.A. 8.7 - 10.0 -1.3
2 Years P.A. 14.0 - 12.9 1.1
3 Years P.A. 13.0 - 12.8 0.2
5 Years P.A. - 11.7 11.5 0.2
7 Years P.A. - 17.9 15.9 2.0
Since inception
P.A.
(01/01/2011)
- 14.6 13.3 1.3
26
Source: Perpetual & RBC. Numbers may not be whole due to rounding. ^ The Perpetual Wholesale Global Share Fund Class A has been
operating since August 2014. The Fund did not have a unit class that included fees from the period 1 January 2011 to 28 August 2014.
The return shown for Class W has been calculated using the performance of the W Class less a 1.10% Management Fee and 15%
Performance Fee which are the fees applicable to Class A. Class A and Class W have identical investments. Further details on the
performance fee calculation is available in the Perpetual Wholesale Funds Product Disclosure Statement offering ‘Perpetual Wholesale
Global Share Fund Class A units’. The estimated Performance fee accrued as at 27 August 2014 is not carried into actual performance
calculations commencing 28 August 2014. Total return shown for the fund have been calculated using exit prices after taking into account
all of Perpetual’s ongoing fees and assuming reinvestment of distributions. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. No
company in the Perpetual Group guarantees the performance of any fund or the return of an investor’s capital.
*The index for the Perpetual Global Share Fund is the MSCI World Total Return Net (A$) Index.
Net performance for periods ending 28 February 2019
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE
REGIONAL BENT IMPACTING SHORTER TERM
WHOLESALE GLOBAL SHARE FUND
27. KEY BENEFITS
True to label
Perpetual’s unique value and
quality process proven for over 50
years in the Perpetual Industrial
Share fund, applied globally.
Top Performance
Strong performing global equities fund
delivering 14.0%* p.a. after fees since
inception in 2011.
Focus on absolute returns
with portfolio beta of 1.0x for the
last year*, ability to go to 25%
cash.
Best ideas concentrated portfolio
of 20-40 leaders or emerging
leaders around the world.
Positioned to perform
in the event of a rising interest rate environment:
• Our balance sheet quality filter should deliver outperformance in this environment
• Value underperformed in a period of falling bond yields. Value has outperformed in the past year as bond
yields have started to rise and we expect this to continue.
Source: MSCI World Net Total Return Index (AUD). Total returns shown for Perpetual Global Share Fund have been calculated using exit prices after taking into account all of Perpetual’s ongoing fees
and assuming reinvestment of distributions. No allowance has been made for taxation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
*As at 28 February 2019
28. This presentation has been prepared by Perpetual Investment Management Limited
(PIML) ABN 18 000 866 535, AFSL No 234426. You should consider, with a financial
adviser, whether the information is suitable for your circumstances. To the extent
permitted by law, no liability is accepted for any loss or damage as a result of any
reliance on this information.
The PDS for the relevant fund, issued by PIML, should be considered before deciding
whether to acquire or hold units in that fund. The PDS can be obtained by calling 1800
022 033 or visiting our website www.perpetual.com.au (Perpetual Group means
Perpetual Limited ABN 86 000 431 827 and its subsidiaries).
No company in the Perpetual Group guarantees the performance of any fund or the
return of any investor's capital. Total return shown for the fund(s) have been
calculated using exit prices after taking into account all of Perpetual's ongoing fees
and assuming reinvestment of distributions. No allowance has been made for
contribution or withdrawal fees or taxation (except in the case of superannuation
funds).
The Perpetual Wholesale Global Share Fund Class A has been operating since August
2014. The Fund did not have a unit class that included fees from the period 1 January
2011 to 28 August 2014. The return shown for Class A has been calculated using the
performance of the W Class less a 1.10% Management Fee and 15% Performance
Fee which are the fees applicable to Class A. Class A and Class W have identical
investments. Further details on the performance fee calculation is available in the
Perpetual Wholesale Funds Product Disclosure Statement offering ‘Perpetual
Wholesale Global Share Fund Class A units’. The estimated Performance fee accrued
as at 27 August 2014 is not carried into actual performance calculations commencing
28 August 2014. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
DISCLAIMER