1. Assessing ambition of INDCs
Developing robust INDCs: Experiences from developing countries and emerging
lessons
Side Event presentation, Lima, Peru
Monday 01 December, 15:00 – 16:30
Markus Hagemann
m.hagemann@newclimate.org

2. Ways to assess mitigation
contributions by countries
Comparison
To BAU
To effort sharing
To mitigation potential
Of decarbonisation indicators
To good practice policy package / policy menu
Further reading:
GIZ INDC process guide (authored by NewClimate Institute staff):
http://mitigationpartnership.net/sites/default/files/giz_bmub_2014_proce
ss_guidance_for_intended_nationally_determined_contributions_indcs_1.
pdf
www.newclimate.org 3

3. Comparison to BAU
BAU is counterfactual
BAU includes many different developments
Example Brazil
36.1% to 38.9%
below BAU in 2020
Further case examples (CP pledges for 2020):
• Indonesia – 26% to 42% below reference
• South Korea – 30% below reference
• South Africa – 34% below BAU
• Mexico – 30% below BAU
• Chile – 20% below BAU
www.newclimate.org 3

4. Comparison to effort sharing
(equity)
Large range of effort sharing approaches, e.g. per capita, carbon
budgets, equal costs, …
Case examples:
• Indonesia
• Brazil – historical responsibility
• Chile – in its INDC process
www.newclimate.org 5

5. Comparison to potential
Large uncertainties
Assumptions on base
line?
Assumptions on cost
elements?
Model used?
Source: Fekete et al. 2013. Climate
change mitigation in emerging
economies: From potentials to actions.
http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/fil
es/medien/378/publikationen/cc_19_2013_vorabe
xemplar_fkz_3711_41_120_ueberarbeitet_12_12_
13_.pdf
Case examples:
• South Africa - LTMS
• Peru- Plan CC
• Chile - MAPS
• EU – Impact Assessment
www.newclimate.org 6

6. Comparison to
decarbonisation indicators
Current policy
kWh/
cap Pledge
CO2/
kWh
Current policy
Pledge
Activity
Required for
2°C
Current best
practice
Global
average
2010 2050
Required for
2°C
Global average
2010 2050
Current best
practice
Intensity
Case examples:
• China
• India
(intensity targets)
www.newclimate.org 7

7. Comparison to low carbon
policy package
Possible approach
1. Choose area of
intervention
2. Identify BP
incentives and
barriers
3. Develop
benchmarks
4. Rate policy against
benchmark
Case examples policies:
• Uganda – RE feed-in tariff
• Mexico – Buildings NAMA
• China – National ETS (planned)
www.newclimate.org 7

8. Complexity of analysis
Comparison More
simple
>>>>>> More complex
To BAU
To effort sharing
To mitigation
potential
Of decarbonisation
indicators
To good practice
policy package /
policy menu
Downscale
regional BAU
Bottom up
development of BAU
Use IPCC effort
sharing ranges
Own effort
sharing model
Categorization of
measures
Bottom up
modelling of MACC
Use of existing
literature
Development of country
specific indicators
Application of existing
policy menues
Dev. of counrty spec.
policy menues
www.newclimate.org 11

9. Suitable approaches for
different types of commitments
Business as
usual (BAU)
Effort
sharing
Mitigation
potential
Decarboni-sation
indicators
Good
practice
policy
package
Aspirational
national long term
emissions goal
National short
term emissions
target
Energy / sectoral
targets
Highlight policies
and projects
www.newclimate.org
Legend approaches
Most appropriate
Appropriate
12

10. Conclusions
Relevance of assessing ambition
Allows for comparison of country offers in the international process
Supports countries’ domestic processes for the development of INDCs
Options to assess ambition
All 5 options can provide valuable information to assessing ambition
No silver bullet approach, ideally all are combined
Some approaches might be better suited depending on target types
Level of complexity of analysis
Complexity of analysis can be adjusted to capacity level
Suggested approach: Moving from simpler to more complex option
www.newclimate.org 14

11. Thanks for your attention!
Contact: Markus Hagemann, m.hagemann@newclimate.org
BLOG: http://newclimate.org/2014/10/29/how-to-assess-the-level-of-ambition-of-an-intended-nationally-
determined-contribution/
GIZ Guide (authored by NewClimate Institute staff): (authored by NewClimate Institute staff) :
http://mitigationpartnership.net/sites/default/files/giz_bmub_2014_process_guidance_for_intend
ed_nationally_determined_contributions_indcs_1.pdf
www.newclimate.org 11

12. Backup slides
16/12/2014 12

13. Policy package approach
Information & data gathering  collection of data
 information on policies and effectiveness
 organized by segments
Policy evaluation Emission pathways
Time- Output Input
line
 Vision
 Best practice policy package
 Indicators
 Benchmarks
Analysis
framework
 Weighting
factors
Qualitative
assessment of
ambition of
long term goals
long term
2050
 impact of implemented policies
 impact of planned policies
 comparison to best practice
 Weighting
mid term
2030
 Business as usual: basic data
 comparison to intl. pledges
 comparison to effort sharing
models
 comparison to national goals
short term
2020
factors
Qualitative
assessment of
ambition of
medium term
goals/ policies
and assumptions
 Policy impact
16/12/2014 13

14. Comparison to effort sharing
14