Hypo-Thesis on Real Estate Investment Prediction

1. Hypo-Thesis
on
Real Estate Investment Prediction
Prepared By -
MD. NADIM HOSSAIN SONET

2. Introduction
• Real Estate :
Real Estate refers to land, as well as
any physical property or improvements
attached to that structure.
Real Estate implies to any land
structure that can be bought, leased, sold, or
transferred together or separately.

3. Introduction [Cont.]
Examples: Land, Houses, Office
Buildings, Retail Store Buildings, Factories
etc.
Real Estate can be grouped together
into three broad categories based on its use:
Residential, Commercial, and Industrial.

4. Introduction [Cont.]
• Real Estate Investment:
Commitment of capital into a real
estate asset (or part thereof) with the
expectation of near-term increment in cash
flow and value.
Real Estate Investment involves the
purchase, ownership, management, rental
and/or sale of real estate for profit.

5. Process
To make investments in real estate more
reliable, realistic predictions are
considered in different manner from
business point of view.
This prediction can be more effective and
optimized if certain factors are taken into
consideration before actual investment
takes place.

6. Factors
Political Culture
Financial Condition
Development Cost
Area Priority
Property Price
Distance from nearby City

7. Factors [Cont.]
People’s Demand
Road and Transportation
Electricity Availability
Water Availability
Gas Availability
Security

8. Factors [Cont.]
Bank Loan
Soil Quality
Area Population
Population Growth Rate
Native People’s Financial State

9. Factors [Cont.]
Native People’s Social Status
Medical Resource Availability
Educational Resource Availability
Entertainment Resource Availability
Market Availability
Class

10. Attributes & Values
Political Culture {Stable, Moderate, Unstable}
Financial Condition {Stable, Moderate,
Unstable}
Development Cost {Very High, High, Medium,
Low}
Area Priority {Very High, High, Medium, Low}
Property Price {Very High, High, Medium, Low}
Distance from nearby City {Very Close, Close,
Average, Far, Very Far}

11. Attributes & Values [Cont.]
People’s Demand {High, Medium, Low}
Road and Transportation {Very Good, Good,
Moderate, Bad, Very Bad}
Electricity Availability {Available, On Process,
Not Available}
Water Availability {Available, On Process, Not
Available}
Gas Availability {Available, On Process, Not
Available}
Security {High, Medium, Low}

12. Attributes & Values [Cont.]
Bank Loan {Available, Not Available}
Soil Quality {Very Good, Good, Moderate, Bad,
Very Bad}
Area Population {Very High, High, Medium, Low,
Very Low}
Population Growth Rate {Very High, High,
Medium, Low, Very Low}
Native People’s Financial State {Stable,
Moderate, Unstable}

13. Attributes & Values [Cont.]
Native People’s Social Status {Very High, High,
Medium, Low, Very Low}
Medical Resource Availability {High, Medium,
Low}
Educational Resource Availability {High,
Medium, Low}
Entertainment Resource Availability {High,
Medium, Low}
Market Availability {High, Medium, Low}
Class {<1 Year, <2 Year, <3 Year, <4 Year, <5 Year,
>5 Year}

14. Analysis
• Using one of the most popular data mining tool “WEKA” on
three classifiers named “AODE”, “NaiveBayes” and “J48” the
findings for “Real Estate Investment Prediction” are given
below.
• [During the research a small survey was done containing 20
instances on which the mining is performed and following
assumptions are measured.]

15. NaiveBayes Classifier

16. AODE Classifier

17. J48 Classifier

18. J48 Classifier [Cont.]

19. Findings
• The most interesting finding from the mining is
that, though a lot of factors are considered
during the process, but the impact relies mostly
on “Availability of GAS”.
• The associate factors are “Native People’s Social
Status” and “Entertainment Resource
Availability”.

20. Association Rule Mining
• By applying different “Association Rule Mining” algorithms on
the collected dataset various rules are generated.
 Apriori >> 10 Rules
 PredictiveApriori >> 100 Rules
 Tertius >> 560 Rules

21. Apriori Rules
• Electricity_Availability = Available ==> Political_Culture =
Stable
• Electricity_Availability = Available Bank_Loan = Available ==>
Political_Culture = Stable
• Water_Availability = Available ==> Political_Culture = Stable
Electricity_Availability = Available Bank_Loan = Available
• Political_Culture = Stable Water_Availability = Available ==>
Electricity_Availability = Available Bank_Loan = Available
• Electricity_Availability = Available Water_Availability =
Available ==> Political_Culture = Stable Bank_Loan = Available

22. Apriori Rules [Cont.]
• Water_Availability = Available Bank_Loan = Available ==>
Political_Culture = Stable Electricity_Availability = Available
• Political_Culture = Stable Electricity_Availability = Available
Water_Availability = Available ==> Bank_Loan = Available
• Political_Culture=Stable, Water_Availability = Available,
Bank_Loan = Available ==> Electricity_Availability =
Available
• Electricity_Availability = Available, Water_Availability =
Available Bank_Loan = Available ==> Political_Culture =
Stable
• Water_Availability = Available ==> Electricity_Availability =
Available, Bank_Loan = Available

23. The End…
Thank you Everybody…