3. 3
COVID EMPLOYMENT IMPACT
Base: 10,028
Jan. 2023 86% 12% 2%
July 2022 83% 14% 3%
Feb. 2022 77% 19% 4%
Oct. 2021 58% 32% 10%
Jan. 2021 73% 20% 7%
FULL
TIME
JOB
WANTED
24 MONTH EMPLOYMENT IMPACT
27%
32%
32%
35%
offline Sales
online sales
Real estate rent / sales
Trade in stocks, funds, currency
SECONDARY SOURCE OF INCOME
Full-time employment is at its highest since Pre-Covid days,
even with the large number of Real estate and factory lay-
offs, boding well for the economy, but could also suggests a
level of uncertainty as consumers try to tie down full-time
not part time work. Unemployment will continue to raise
though.
Multiple sources of income have also increased, but still
well below Pre-Covid numbers.
Interestingly Financial trading is now the #1 source of
2ndary income as Real estate and online sales decline.
38% 55% 80% 66%
62% 45% 20% 34%
Pre COVID Jul-21 Jul-22 23-Jan
NUMBER of INCOME SOURCES
1 Source Multiple sources
4. 4
IFM CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 2023
Base:15,185
2020 - 2023 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Before COVID-19 COVID Wave 1
Consumer confidence has dropped somewhat since July 2022, Indicating uncertainty in the market, fueled by the Real
estate bubble burst, high inflation and many of the more traditional routes to money being negatively impacted.
4
Index out of 110
2019 Jan 2020 July 2020 Jan 2021 July 2021 Jan 2022 July 2022 Jan 2023
Index: The index is based on 11 spend
categories in terms of consumer
spending “more – same – less” than
previous Period.
(More + Same Minus Less) of 11
Categories average)
Divide by 11 sectors = Consumer
Confidence Index score
92
84
27
60
12
51
63
57
COVID Wave 2 Post COVID-19
5. 5
VIEW OF VIETNAM’S ECONOMY – JAN 2020 – JAN 2023
5
Though more are optimistic than not, over a quarter see the economy as being worse in 2023 than last year
70%
5%
58%
12%
27%
46%
40%
22%
19%
27%
24%
42%
36%
33%
8%
76%
15%
64%
31%
18%
27%
2020 Jan
2020 Jul
2021 Jan
2021 Jul
2022 Jan
2022 Jul
2023 Jan
Better Same Worse
Jan. 2020 vs Jan. 2023 VIEW OF THE ECONOMY
Base: 9,126
6. 6
Base: 10,147 6
TOP FEARS - 2020 – 2023
Inflation has jumped to the forefront of consumers fears, followed by Pollution, Economic slow down and Unemployment.
Interestingly, as concerns over the environment increase, so usually does consumer confidence.
59%
72%
57%
35%
55%
73%
55%
21%
61%
45%
30%
39%
46%
32%
44% 48%
36%
42%
17%
39%
50%
34%
42%
32%
16%
3%
36%
60%
Jan. 20 Jan. 21 21-Jul Jan. 22 Jan. 23
Negative impact of Virus on my business COVID Infection
Environmental pollution Vietnam economic slow down
Unemployment Increased inflation
Inflation
Unemployment
Eco. slow down
Pollution
7. 54%
48%
41%
35%
38%
2019 2020 `July 21 22-Jul Jan-23
7
LOANS TAKEN OUT IN PAST 12 MONTHS
Base: 12,127
LOANS / LENDING AND DEBT
▪ Due to Government restrictions and
consumers having less money to spare, loans
have declined substantially, since 2019. (54%
to 38%)
▪ 50% of all loans are for immediate survival
and paying off debt, while car loans have
doubles in 4 years.
7
47%
54%
31%
11%
47%
29%
17%
3%
49%
22% 22%
4%
VN banks Friends/ Family Consumer Fin. Co Foreign banks
SOURCES OF LOAN
2023
2022
2019
34%
42%
38%
21%
25%
16%
13%
36% 35% 34%
26%
22%
11% 10%
25%
37%
33%
24%
17%
9%
7%
Business Personal For my
immediate
survival
Real Estate to pay back
Loans / Debts
Education Automobile
PURPOSE OF LOANS
2023 2022 2021
9. 9
10%
13%
16%
13%
23%
20%
12%
16%
37%
30%
30%
40%
41%
35%
28%
33%
27%
17%
17%
30%
23%
18%
Education
Food & beverages products
Health care…
Household utilities
Transportation
Personal care products
Communications
House hold care product
Entertainment & dining out
Personal electronics
Home appliances
Less Same More
9
2023
30%
28%
19%
15%
10%
7%
5%
-1%
-7%
-7%
-12%
ESTIMATED CONSUMPTION GROWTH BY CATEGORY 2023
Growth %
SECTOR SPEND 2022 VS 2023
As usual Education and Healthcare top the list of spend growth. However, with COVID in the rear view mirror
Healthcare spend decreases and due to inflation, F&B with rise significantly.
Base: 1017
10. 10
9%
8%
8%
19%
11%
17%
10%
14%
32%
27%
30%
48%
38%
38%
47%
35%
34%
22%
23%
39%
23%
19%
Food & Beverages products
Health care products/services
Education
Transportation
House hold care products
Personal care products
Communications
Household utilities
Entertainment & dining out
Personal equipment
Home appliances
Less Same More
ESTIMATED CONSUMPTION GROWTH BY CATEGORY 2022
Growth % vs 2021
Base: n = 1,022
F&B, Healthcare and Education have the highest growth in the next 6-12 months, while all electronics will continue to
struggle. Entertainment & dining out - looks positive with growth for the 1st time since the COVID break-out.
Jul 22
39%
30%
30%
28%
24%
17%
12%
9%
7%
-4%
-11
SECTOR SPEND 2021 VS 2022
11. 11
SPEND INCREASE BASED ON CONSUMPTION VS INFLATION
Industry Growth Increase consumption Increase in cost / inflation Actual growth
Education 30% 65% 35% 19.5%
Food & beverages products 28% 37% 63% 10.4%
Health care products/service 19% 63% 37% 12%
Household utilities 15% 32% 68% 4.8%
Transportation 10% 48% 52% 4.8%
Personal care products 7% 63% 37% 4.4%
Communications 5% 63% 37% 3.2%
House hold care product 1% 56% 44%
No Growth
Entertainment & dining out -7% 47% 53%
Personal electronics -7% 66% 34%
Home appliances -12% 63% 37%
▪ Once inflation is taken out of the equation, actual consumption growth ranges between 20% and 3% across sectors
▪ 54% of consumption increase is anticipated to be inflation vs 46% actual consumption increase.
▪ Actual total growth minus inflation = 5.4%
Base: 1017
12. AVERAGE MONTHLY SPEND ACROSS CATEGORIES
Necessity spending continues to grow, taking up 60% of total spend – with a large chunk of this now going to savings.
Food / Groceries equals one quarter of all spend.
58 56 57 60
42 44 43 40
Q3_2021 Q1_2022 Q3_2022 Q1_2023
NECESSITY SPEND DISCRETIONARY SPEND
17% 17% 12% 16% 18% 9% 7% 5%
Groceries / Food & beverage / Household care products Purchase food and products online
Education Health care products/services
Give to husband / wife / partner Paying off debts
Utilities & communications Transportation
30 18 17 9 7 13 7
Put away for savings / investment Eating and Drinking out
Fashion Fitness / exercise / supplements
Online subscriptions Entertainment
Purchase food and products online
Q3 2022 SPLIT OF NECESSITY SPENDS
Q3 2022 SPLIT OF DISCRETIONARY SPENDS
Base: 1017
13. AVERAGE MONTHLY SPEND ACROSS CATEGORIES
Cautious optimism, or worry for the future – many consumers are putting money away in savings.
28 29 25
30
21 20
24 18
18 17 18 17
6 7 7 9
6 6 6 7
9 14 12 13
11 7 8 7
Q3_2021 Q1_2022 Q3_2022 Q1_2023
Purchase food and products online
Entertainment
Online subscriptions
Fitness / exercise / supplements
Fashion
Eating and Drinking out
Put away for savings / investment
SPLIT OF DISCRETIONARY SPENDS
All other spend seeing a slight
decrease in spend as a result of
increased savings.
Post-Covid, eating and drinking
out is down in spend whilst
savings now almost one third of
discretionary spend.
Base: 1017
15. 15
Base: 1017
1. ONLINE AMPLIFICATION
Though not by much, Online spend is somewhat in decline, as consumer go back to pre-covid behavior
52
40
16
35
32
25
2022
2023
ONLINE SPEND 2022 VS 2023
More Same Less
16. 16
6% 5% 4% 2% 1%
2. CONSUMPTION GROWTH - IMPACT ON BIG TICKET PURCHASE ITEMS
Base: 2,045 What did you Purchase in 2020 and what will you purchase in 2021?
Big Ticket items (50Million VND Plus) that show growth from a small base are; New Cars, New Businesses and Overseas
holidays
GROWTH PURCHASE INTEND (2022 vs 2023)
Growth
%
7
12
6
16
2
13
17
10
18
3
New car A new Business Overseas Holiday Invest in Funds Overseas education
2022 2023
17. 17
2. CONSUMPTION DECLINE - IMPACT ON BIG TICKET PURCHASE ITEMS
Declining items are: Home renovations, Motorcycles, Insurance will feel pressure to maintain growth
Base: 2,045
-11% -8% - 7% -5% - 3% -2% 0%
Growth %
38
27
39
10
23
21
33
27
19
32
5
20 19
33
Home renovations Motorcycle Insurance
(Life/Health)
Used car Expensive electronics
over 20 M VND
Invest in stock
market
Domestic Holiday
2022 2023
USED
ITEMS IN DECLINE
18. 18
17%
10% 7%
34%
8% 5%
18%
31%
13%
7%
21%
41%
House Apartment Land Total
LAND GRAB BOOM
2020 2022 2023
Even though the Real estate market is in the dumps, Consumer are still keen to buy, but are waiting for prices to
bottom out.
There is a major shift from apartment purchases to Houses in 2023. Land for the past 3 years has been the most
favorable real estate option
3. LAND GRAB PURCHASE INTENT
Base: 2,045
19. 19
21%
-41%
-32% -36%
-46% -49%
-54%
32% 34%
21% 21% 19%
-9%
-28.0%
19%
13%
5% 7% 6%
-35%
-4%
2021 2022 2023
Online Shopping
platforms
Super/Hyper
markets
Ma & Pa stores Convenience
stores
Wet markets Street Vendors Shopping Mall
4. RETAIL LANDSCAPE SHIFTS
Big Winners: Online shopping and Supermarkets will remain the most frequented shopping venues in 2023.
Big Losers: Street vendors and Shopping malls will continue to struggle
Though much of 2022 was Post COVID pent up demand, a sound growth rate is anticipated for 2023 across 5 Main retail
types
2 YEAR AVERAGE GROWTH FREQUENCY
Base: 1017
20. 20
4. OUTLET TYPE FUTURE USAGE
All non essential retail outlets may experiences negative growth in 2023
Not surprisingly, Fiery Karaoke, will take a huge hit in 2023, while Food delivery, Coffee shop and VN restaurant
should maintain overall relevance
7%
11%
7%
6%
12%
8%
17%
15%
13%
20%
23%
25%
30%
33%
26%
19%
34%
25%
38%
36%
35%
51%
50%
42%
44%
44%
33%
32%
36%
32%
37%
29%
23%
26%
25%
27%
Karaoke
Quan Nhau
Foreign Restaurants
Bars / night clubs
Cinema
Massage Parlour
Fast food restaurant
Spa / Beauty clinic
Gyms
Vietnamese Restaurant
Coffee shops
Food delivery services
More Same Less
Usage
Growth %
-2%
-2%
-6%
-10%
-14%
-20%
-24%
-24%
-26%
-26%
-33%
-37%
NON-ESSENTIAL VENUE GROWTH
Base: 1017
22. 22
Business sentiment – whom we talked too
377 business owners
36%
34%
20%
8%
2%
Company size
self employed
1-5 Employees
6 to 20
20 to 150
More than 150
61% of businesses did not have a
budget target for 2022
70% smalls sized
28% Medium sized
2% Large sized
Base: 377
23. 23
Optimism Abounds
12% 55% 33%
2022 Revenue / Budget Company performance
Ecxeeded Budget Achievd busget Did not achieve budgut
Estimated 2023 Revenue Growth %
30% & Higher 24%
20 - 29% higher 21%
10 – 19% higher 27%
1 - 9% higher 10%
About the same as 2022 5%
1 - 9% lower 7%
10 –or lower 6%
77% 18% 5%
Anticipated revenue growth 2023 vs 2022
Higher Same Lower
62
19
10
5
2
2
Economic recession
Decreased consumer spending
Lack of liquidity
Supply chain issues
Increased banking restrictions…
Other (specify)
Rationale for decline in revenues
N = 19
Some 77% of these Company owners achieved budget in 2022 and a further 77% expect to exceed 2023 results
Base: 147
25. 25
Uncertainty
Positives BUT…..
Employment at its highest in years Many Factories, Real estate companies cutting staff
Consumer confidence is stabilizing Has dropped 6 points since 2022
Pollution concerns are up – a good sign Inflation and economic slowdown are major uncertainties
Intent to take out loans is up But 50% are for paying off debt and survival
Education F&B, Healthcare and Utilities spend is up A large part of spend is Inflation
Essential Retail spend will be up Non essential retail platforms will have a tough time surviving
The purchase of Big Ticket items such as New Cars
and Investment in new business will be up
Most other Big Ticket items are in decline
Real estate will begin to recuperate in 2023
Fees must continue to drop and new legislation must be enforced
to recover
GDP growth estimated for 2023 – 6.5%
The Government has placed too high an emphasis on Tourism
rebound, Foreign FDI and Infrastructure projects to reach targets
2023 marks a year of uncertainty, potentially best
described as a year of CONSUMER CONSOLIDATION, why?
26. SAMPLE PLAN Jan, 2023
26
SEC Household Income bands Total
A 30,000,000 VND and more 18%
B 20,000,001 - 30,000,000 VND 33%
C 15,000,001 - 20,000,000 VND 20%
D 10,000,001 - 15,000,000 VND 16%
E Below 10,000,000 VND 13%
METHODOLOGY
▪ IFM consumer confidence Index, has been ongoing since 2012. For this report, the sample utilized ranges between 15,000 to 1,000
respondents nation-wide and was conducted 4 times in 2020 and 3 times in 2021 and twice in 2022 and Jan 2023
▪ Quantitative – Self-completion by end consumers
▪ Using IFM Mobile Panel via smartphones data collection.
Sample error is 3-4% based
on sample size per wave at
95% confidence level
Age %
18-24 16%
25-34 39%
35-44 34%
45 Plus 10%
Location %
HCMC / Hanoi 50%
2nd tier - cities 12%
Rural / sub-Urban South 14%
Rural / Sub-Urban Central 10%
Rural / Sub-urban North 14%
Total 1,017
N = 1,017
Gender %
Male 49%
Female 51%
Date Sample
Dec-18 3,567
Dec-19 2,964
Mar-20 502
May-20 1,023
Jul-20 1,019
Dec-20 1,026
Jun-21 1,010
Oct-21 1,009
Feb-22 1,026
Jul-22 1,022
Jan - 2023 1,017
Total 15,185
27. 27
Ralf Matthaes | Managing Director
Email: Ralf.matthaes@infocusmekong.com
Website: www.ifmresearch.com
Wish to know more?
