Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. September 2021.

LATIN AMERICA
UPDATE
September 2021
www.nuricumbo.com

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -4.0% -4.4% -5.0%
2021 Economic Growth 6.2% 6.2% 5.6%
% of population vaccinated
(Est. 2021. At least one dose.)
60% 55% 48%
Covid Variants
Current vaccines prove to be effective
against Delta and other variants which
allows economic recovery to continue
Infections and mortality grow. Vaccines
are relatively effective. Economy remains
open despite the human cost.
Delta and other variants prove resistant
to current vaccines and lead to health
system breakdowns in several countries.
Crypto
Adoption continues on a global basis.
Regulation strikes the proper balance
between risks and opportunities.
Adoption by some Central Banks.
Adoption continues but at a slow pace.
The good mix of regulation and
competition makes the industry more
credible and brings even further
investment and innovation.
Crypto bubble bursts, creating a financial
crisis and a reputational backslide
against everything crypto. Progress in
adoption is severely impacted.
USA - China
Despite the natural conflicts between an
emerging power and a hegemonic power,
cooperation prevails.
"New Cold War" develops but with
different levels and nuances.
Taiwan and Hong Kong become hot spots
for conflict. Fast escalation into military
intervention and cyberwar.
China markets
Issues with technology companies are
resolved relatively quickly without long-
term impact on financial markets.
Chinese government tries to regulate
more proactively certain economic
sectors that could challenge its power,
such as technology.
Efforts to regulate technology companies
are only the beginning. Other sectors
follow as China tries harder to ascertain
its power internally and externally.
15%
Estimated Probability
Scenario 1
Optimistic 60%
Scenario 2
Neutral 25%
Scenario 3
Pesimistic

LATIN AMERICA PERSPECTIVE
2020 Economic Fall -6.5% -7.7% -9.0%
Unemployment 9.5% 10.6% 12.5%
PIB per Capita
(USD per annum)
10,000 9,000 7,000
Inequality
(Gini)
0.45 0.47 0.53
Herd Immunity Early 2023 Mid 2023 2025
15%
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Scenario 2
Neutral 35%
Scenario 3
Pesimistic

NORTH AMERICA PERSPECTIVE
2020 Economic Fall
Mexico: -7.5%
USA: -4.0%
Canada: -6.5%
Mexico: -8.5%
USA: -4.3%
Canada: -7.1%
Mexico: -10.0%
USA: -5.0%
Canada: -7.5%
2021 Economic Growth
Mexico: 6.4%
USA: 7.2%
Canada: 6.6%
Mexico: 6.1%
USA: 7.0%
Canada: 6.2%
Mexico: 4.0%
USA: 5.2%
Canada: 4.8%
Time to Herd Immunity
Mexico: 200 days
USA: 85 days
Mexico: 250 days
USA: 90 days
Canada: Achieved
Mexico: 350 days
USA: 200 days
USMCA
There are controversies. Some
investments are canceled but many
others go ahead.
Mexico loses the opportunity to attract
new investments and to seize the “near-
shoring” wave.
Labor, environmental and regulatory
disputes generate a business
environment full of conflict.
Cooperation
The three governments agree on some
sort of pragmatic agenda. However, little
progress in the next three years.
USA and Canada agree on a bilateral
agenda. Mexico is marginalized and
cooperation opportunities are lost.
Negative elements dominate the agenda
with Mexico, such as drug trafficking,
crime, and political instability.
Energy Policy
Mexico’s Congress rescues some parts of
the 2013 Energy Reform and prevents
further impact on Mexico’s credibility.
Mexico becomes less attractive for
energy investments. Pemex and CFE
become the biggest financial risks for
Mexico.
Major legal disputes under USMCA rules
impact Mexico’s credibility.
20%
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Scenario 2
Neutral 30%
Scenario 3
Pesimistic

MEXICO PERSPECTIVE
2020 Economic Fall -7.5% -8.5% -11.0%
Interest Rate 3.25% 4.00% 5.00%
Inflation 5.0% 5.8% 6.5%
Exchange Rate
(USD/MXN)
19.50 21.50 24.0
Governance
Political opposition takes shape and
creates an effective narrative that starts
to build momentum towards 2024,
ensuring more balanced power sharing.
Morena project loses steam, which
reduces likelihood of radical actions.
Other political options start to emerge.
Governance in certain states and cities
remains complex.
AMLO’s government is challenged by
organized crime. Security situation
deteriorates. Little or no achievements
in last 3 years of term.
“Sexenio perdido”.
Pemex
Pemex without crisis. Sovereign credit
rating remains with negative outlook but
without detonating a crisis.
Pemex financial bomb keeps ticking.
Sovereign credit rating deteriorates with
limited impact on financial markets.
Pemex becomes a major issue and there
is significant impact on sovereign credit
rating and financial markets. Strong
devaluation.
15%
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Scenario 2
Neutral 35%
Scenario 3
Pesimistic

$4.97 $5.21 $5.15
$0.00
$2.50
$5.00
$7.50
June July August
Brazil
Exchange Rates
$3,778.44 $3,858.63 $3,824.49
$0.00
$1,500.00
$3,000.00
$4,500.00
June July August
Colombia
$19.94 $19.88 $20.08
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
June July August
Mexico
$3.98 $3.92 $4.08
$0.00
$1.50
$3.00
$4.50
June July August
Peru
Source: Exchange Rates UK, 2021.
*PEN / USD
*MXN / USD
*USD / CLP
*BRL / USD
*COP / USD
$732.28
$756.65 $775.85
$0.00
$300.00
$600.00
$900.00
June July August
Chile
*CLP / USD
$95.71 $96.71 $97.74
$0.00
$40.00
$80.00
$120.00
June July August
Argentina
*ARS / USD

Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
48.80% 50.20% 51.80%
0.00%
15.00%
30.00%
45.00%
60.00%
May June July
Argentina
Inflation Rate
8.06% 8.35% 8.99%
0.00%
2.50%
5.00%
7.50%
April May June
Brazil
3.25%
3.81%
4.95%
0.00%
1.20%
2.40%
3.60%
4.80%
6.00%
June July August
Peru
3.30% 3.63% 3.97%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
May June July
Colombia
3.60% 3.80%
4.50%
0.00%
1.50%
3.00%
4.50%
6.00%
May June July
Chile
5.89% 5.88% 5.81%
0.00%
2.50%
5.00%
7.50%
May June July
Mexico

$42,494 $42,503 $46,094
$0
$15,000
$30,000
$45,000
$60,000
June July July
Argentina
International Reserves
$350,996 $353,448 $352,486
$0
$120,000
$240,000
$360,000
$480,000
May June July
Brazil
$59,144 $58,917 $58,878
$0
$18,000
$36,000
$54,000
$72,000
May June July
Colombia
$47,847 $44,954 $48,767
$0
$13,000
$26,000
$39,000
$52,000
June July August
Chile
$192,886 $193,424 $205,391
$0
$60,000
$120,000
$180,000
$240,000
June July August
Mexico
$71,892 $71,501 $74,425
$0
$25,000
$50,000
$75,000
$100,000
June July August
Peru
*Million U.S. Dollars
Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.

62,372 66,005
76,452
0
18,000
36,000
54,000
72,000
90,000
June July August
Argentina
Capital Markets
126,802 121,801 118,781
0
35,000
70,000
105,000
140,000
June July August
Brazil
1,249 1,237 1,320
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
June July August
Colombia
50,290 50,868 53,305
0
16,000
32,000
48,000
64,000
June July August
Mexico
4,334 4,223 4,488
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
June July August
Chile
*IPSA:IND
*MEXBOL:IND
*SPBLPGPT:IND
*MERVAL:IND
*IBOV:IND
*COLCAP:IND
Source: Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, 2021.
18,851 17,672 17,654
0
7,000
14,000
21,000
June July August
Peru
*SPBLPGPT:IND

Foreign Direct Investmet
$11,873
$6,663
$4,019.00
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
2018 2019 2020
Argentina
$59,802 $65,386
$24,778
$0
$30,000
$60,000
$90,000
2018 2019 2020
Brazil
$11,535
$14,313
$8,100
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
2018 2019 2020
Colombia
$7,736
$12,499
$8,386
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
$16,000
2018 2019 2020
Chile
$33,921 $34,244
$27,786
$0
$12,000
$24,000
$36,000
2018 2019 2020
Mexico
$6,488
$8,892
$982
$0
$3,000
$6,000
$9,000
$12,000
2018 2019 2020
Peru
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and World Investment Report, UNCTAD, 2021.
*Inward, Million U.S. Dollars

Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC
(March 9, 2021)
Source: Fitch Ratings, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(May 27, 2021)
Colombia
BB+
With STABLE Outlook
(July 1, 2021)
Chile
A-
With STABLE Outlook
(March 24, 2021)
Mexico
BBB-
With STABLE Outlook
(May 17, 2021)
Peru
BBB+
(December 15, 2020)

Credit Ratings
Argentina
Ca
With STABLE Outlook
(September 28, 2020)
Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2021.
Brazil
Ba2
With STABLE Outlook
(May 15, 2020)
Colombia
Baa2
(December 3, 2020)
Chile
A1
(August 25, 2020)
Mexico
Baa1
(April 29, 2021)
Peru
Baa1
With STABLE Outlook
(September 1, 2021)

Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC+
With STABLE Outlook
(April 15, 2021)
Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With STABLE Outlook
(June 2, 2021)
Colombia
BB+
With STABLE Outlook
(May 19, 2021)
Chile
A
With STABLE Outlook
(March 24, 2021)
Mexico
BBB
(June 15, 2021)
Peru
BBB+
With STABLE Outlook
(November 23, 2020)

Country Presidents
Argentina
President: Alberto Fernandez
Birth: April 2, 1959
In Office Since: December 10, 2019
Political Party: Frente de Todos
Brazil
President: Jair Bolsonaro
Birth: March 21, 1955
In Office Since: January 1, 2019
Political Party: PSL
Colombia
President: Ivan Duque Marquez
Birth: August 1, 1976
In Office Since: August 7, 2018
Political Party: Centro Democratico
Chile
President: Sebastian Piñera E.
Birth: December 1, 1949
In Office Since: March 11, 2018
Political Party: Independent
Mexico
President: Andres Manuel Lopez O.
Birth: November 13, 1953
In Office Since: December 1, 2018
Political Party: Morena
Peru
President: Pedro Castillo Terrones
Birth: October 19, 1969
In Office Since: July 28, 2021
Political Party: Peru Libre

CHINA AND RUSSIA HAVE DEVELOPED STRONG
VACCINE DIPLOMACY PROGRAMS

EL SALVADOR IS THE FIRST COUNTRY IN THE
WORLD TO RECOGNIZE BITCOIN AS LEGAL TENDER

PARTIAL AGREEMENT REACHED BETWEEN
VENEZUELA’S GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION

SEVERAL LATAM COUNTRIES ARE OPENING
THEIR DOORS TO AFGHAN REFUGEES

BRAZIL, COLOMBIA AND MEXICO HAVE STRONG
PERFORMANCE IN THE PARALYMPIC GAMES

LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS IN ARGENTINA WILL BE A
REFERENDUM ON PRESIDENT FERNANDEZ

A TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN ARGENTINA
AND CHILE IS UNDERWAY

MEXICO CITY TO REPLACE A COLUMBUS
MONUMENT WITH ONE OF INDIGENOUS WOMAN

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PROPUESTA EN CIBERSEGURIDAD
40% de las empresas han sufrido ciberataques en el último año. Identificar y contener un evento de ciberseguridad puede tomar hasta nueve
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Fuente: Lumu Technologies, Forrester Research, Gartner.
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Email: contacto@nuricumbo.com

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Land Area
Source: The World Bank, 2018.
2,736,690
8,358,140
1,109,500
743,532
1,943,950
1,280,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Kilometers

Ease of Doing Business Index
126 124
67
59 60
76
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations

Population Growth
1.0%
0.7%
1.1%
0.9%
1.1%
1.4%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
Note: Annual Percentage

Total Population
45,376.7
212,559.4
50,882.8
19,116.2
128,932.7
32,971.8
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Note: (i) Thousands; (ii) Total Inhabitants

Urban Population
92%
87%
81%
88%
81% 78%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Note: Percentage of Total Population

Poverty Headcount Ratio
1.5%
4.6%
4.9%
0.3%
1.7%
2.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019.
Note: (i) At US$1.90 / Day; (ii) Percentage of Population

Exports of Goods and Services
16.6% 16.9%
13.7%
31.5%
40.1%
22.3%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Note: Percentage of GDP

Foreign Direct Investment
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
A
r
g
e
n
t
i
n
a
B
r
a
z
i
l
C
o
l
o
m
b
i
a
C
h
i
l
e
M
e
x
i
c
o
P
e
r
u
4,019
24,778
8,100 8,386
27,786
982
Note: (i) Net Inflows; (ii) BoP, Current Million US$
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and World Investment Report, UNCTAD, 2021.
*Inward, Million U.S. Dollars

Gross Domestic Product
$383,066.9
$1,444,733.2
$271,346.8 $252,940.0
$1,076,163.3
$202,014.3
$0
$300,000
$600,000
$900,000
$1,200,000
$1,500,000
$1,800,000
$2,100,000
$2,400,000
Note: Millions, Current US$

GDP Per Capita
$20,767.6
$14,836.3 $14,565.4
$25,067.7
$18,833.1
$11,879.2
$0.0
$5,000.0
$10,000.0
$15,000.0
$20,000.0
$25,000.0
$30,000.0
Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current International $

GDP Growth
-9.9%
-4.1%
-6.8%
-5.8% -8.2%
-11.1%
-12%
-11%
-10%
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Note: Annual Percentage

Gross Savings
18.0%
15.0%
14.0%
21.0%
24.0%
19.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%

Personal Remittances
$0.0
$20,000.0
$40,000.0
$60,000.0
A
r
g
e
n
t
i
n
a
B
r
a
z
i
l
C
o
l
o
m
b
i
a
C
h
i
l
e
M
e
x
i
c
o
P
e
r
u
$632.3 $3,556.2 $6,873.5
$70.9
$42,880.3
$2,938.0
Note: (i) Received; (ii) Millions, Current US$

Total Reserves
$39,403.7
$355,614.3
$58,499.5
$39,166.1
$199,069.2
$67,711.5
$0.0
$50,000.0
$100,000.0
$150,000.0
$200,000.0
$250,000.0
$300,000.0
$350,000.0
$400,000.0
Note: (i) Includes Gold; (ii) Millions, Current US$

Revenue
18.8%
29.1%
24.2%
21.6%
18.6% 19.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Note: (i) Excluding Grants; (ii) Percentage of GDP

Government Expenditure on Education
5.5%
6.3%
4.5%
5.4%
4.5%
3.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%

Labor Force
19,191.5
99,843.0
24,802.3
8,860.2
53,978.9
16,181.9
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Note: Thousands

Labor Force (Female)
43.3% 43.9% 42.7% 42.4%
38.5%
45.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force

Unemployment
11.7%
13.7%
15.4%
11.5%
4.7%
6.2%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Note: (i) Percentage of Total Labor Force; (ii) Modeled ILO Estimate

Energy Use
2,030
1,496
724
2,006
1,537
790
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita

Renewable Electricity Output
28.1%
74.0%
68.2%
43.6%
15.4%
52.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Note: Percentage of Total Electricity Output

Population Living in Slums
14.7%
16.3%
27.8%
8.8%
16.0%
33.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Note: Percentage of Urban Population

External Debt Stocks
65.3%
31.8%
44.2%
38.1%
29.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Note: Percentage of GNI

Bank Capital to Assets Ratio
13.5%
10.2%
17.0%
7.5%
11.0%
12.9%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Note: Percentage

Bank Nonperforming Loans
to Total Gross Loans
5.7%
3.1%
4.2%
2.1% 2.1%
3.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Note: Percentage

Deposit Interest Rate
29.3%
2.2%
3.4%
0.9% 1.5% 1.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Note: Percentage

Lending Interest Rate
29.4% 29.0%
9.9%
4.2%
6.3%
12.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Note: Percentage

Listed Domestic Companies
91
345
65
194
140
199
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Note: Total

Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic
Companies
$39,393.54
$988,374.32
$106,315.20
$184,549.42
$399,616.70
$87,092.13
$0.0
$200,000.0
$400,000.0
$600,000.0
$800,000.0
$1,000,000.0
$1,200,000.0
Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$

Strength of Legal Rights Index
2 2
11
4
10
7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong

Military Expenditure
1.9%
3.9%
11.0%
7.2%
2.0%
5.4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Note: Percentage of General Government Expenditure

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EMAIL
contacto@nuricumbo.com
WHATSAPP
+52.55.5453.6309
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OUR OFFICE
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C.P. 06500, Mexico City.
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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. September 2021.

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