Presentation by John McClain from the GMU Center for Regional Analysis at the Annual Press Conference - held at the National Press Club in Washington DC on December 15, 2009.

1. YEAR END REAL ESTATE REPORT 2009 Economic Overview and Outlook John McClain, Senior Fellow Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University December 15, 2009

2. GDP Percent Change, 1930-2009(Real Dollars) %

3. U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2011 Forecast > > > > > > > > % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Global Insight

4. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Mfg Non-Mfg

5. US Job Change Month-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted 000s NOV -11 Source: BLS

6. Initial Unemployment Claims 000s (4-week moving average)

7. U.S. Unemployment Rate % Nov = 10.0 % Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted

8. U.S. Housing TrendsNew & Existing Home Sales (000s) (000s) Existing (left scale) New (Right Scale)

9. Consumer Confidence Present Situation 100 Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

10. U.S. Leading Index 2006 2007 2008 2009

11. The Washington Economy

12. US GDP and Washington GRP % Washington GRP US GDP

13. Total Federal Spending Washington Metro Area Billions Current $ Total Procurement Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

14. Annual Change in Jobs Washington Metro Area 1991 - 2008 Thousands Avg. = 45,000 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15. 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Oct 08 – Oct 09 (000s) Washington – 23,900 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

16. Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

17. Job Change by SectorDec 2008 – Oct 2009Washington MSA Total - 19,500 (000s) Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

18. Unemployment Rate % 9.5 6.2 U.S. Washington Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

19. 15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateOctober 2009 % US 9.5 6.2 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted

20. Housing Market Trends

21. Percent Change in Inventories of Existing HomesMonth-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2009, MSA % Jan-May, 2006 >100 % Nov = - 20 % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

22. Units Sold Percent ChangeBy SubregionAll Housing Types % 2007 2008 2009 DC SMD MSA NVA Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

23. Total Active Listings Per SaleNovember Each Year PG LDN DC MONT FFX ARL

24. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSAAll Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

25. 15 Largest Metro AreasRanked by Median House Price ChangeQ3 2008 – Q3 2009 % - 2.5 US -11.2 Source: National Association of Realtors

26. New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate Washington Metro, All Housing Types % 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Hanley Wood

27. Office Market Trends

28. Office Vacancy RateWashington Metro Area1980 -2011 % Projected 13.5% Avg = 9.1% Source: Delta Associates

29. Office Market Outlook: 2009-2011 (millions of square feet) (1) Projected for 9/11 Source: Delta Associates

30. Economic Forecast

31. GDP/GRP 2000 - 2014 % Washington U.S. Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

32. Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s) Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 45,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

33. www.cra-gmu.org Cardinal Bank & George Mason University 18th Annual Economic Conference Friday, January 15, 2010