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London Global Mining Investment Conference Stationers Hall, London Wednesday 30 th  September 2009 www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com 16.50 Closing Keynote “ Impact that borrowing during the latest cycle has had on the mining & metals sectors” Michael Lynch-Bell Head of Mining Ernst & Young
It’s the fundamentals…… Global Mining Investment Conference 30 September 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The wall of debt Global Mining Investment Conference ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The wall of debt Global Mining Investment Conference ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
EBITDA – 1980 to 2011F Global Mining Investment Conference ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: Ernst & Young, Worldscope via Thomson Datastream. Forecasts are Reuters consensus estimates, via Reuters Knowledge
Net debt in real terms – 1980 to 2011F Global Mining Investment Conference ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: Ernst & Young, Worldscope via Thomson Datastream. Forecasts are Reuters consensus estimates, via Reuters Knowledge
YoY movement in net debt – 1980 to 2008 Global Mining Investment Conference ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Ernst & Young, Worldscope via Thomson Datastream. Forecasts are Reuters consensus estimates, via Reuters Knowledge
Funding the future: Capex Global Mining Investment Conference ,[object Object],[object Object],Capex Dividends Source: Ernst & Young, Worldscope via Thomson Datastream
Funding the future: Acquisitions Global Mining Investment Conference ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Ernst & Young
The US$ and LME metals index, 2003-2009 Global Mining Investment Conference ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: Ernst & Young, Thomson Datastream
The slow rise and fast fall Global Mining Investment Conference ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: Ernst & Young, Thomson Datastream
Copper – LME stocks and prices since 1994 Global Mining Investment Conference ,[object Object],Source: Ernst & Young, Thomson Datastream
Copper supply and demand in recessions Global Mining Investment Conference Source: ICSG, Ernst & Young Recessionary periods
FTSE sector price/earnings ratios Global Mining Investment Conference Source: Ernst & Young, Thomson Datastream At 31 January 2009: FTSE Industrial Metals 9.19 FTSE All Share 8.70 FTSE 100 8.51 FTSE Mining 3.85 At 25 September 2009: FTSE All Share 17.44 FTSE 100 16.36 FTSE Industrial Metals 16.02 FTSE Mining 9.87
Key mining indices in 2009 Global Mining Investment Conference Source: Ernst & Young, Thomson Datastream
Conclusions – Supply/demand imbalance Global Mining Investment Conference ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions – A return to equity finance Global Mining Investment Conference ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions – Smarter M&A  Global Mining Investment Conference ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Things are never as bad as they seem(ed) 30 September 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Harper Lee in To Kill a Mockingbird
Our views and opinions Global Mining Investment Conference
Disclaimer ,[object Object],Global Mining Investment Conference
London Global Mining Investment Conference Stationers Hall, London Wednesday 30 th  September 2009 www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com Michael Lynch-Bell Head of Mining Ernst & Young Michael Lynch-Bell is responsible for leading both Ernst & young’s Mining & Metals team across EMEIA and its global Mining & Metals transaction advisory services team. Mr Lynch-Bell has spent over thirty four years in the firm specialising in the provision of services to the extractive industries sectors and has worked with most of the firm’s extractive industry sector clients in many different parts of the world. He is Chairman of the ad hoc group of experts to the United Nations Framework Classification Committee on Reserves and Resources and is on the advisory panel to the IASB’s Extractive Industries Project.

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Objective Capital Global Mining Investment Conference - Closing Keynote: Michael Lynch-Bell

  • 1. London Global Mining Investment Conference Stationers Hall, London Wednesday 30 th September 2009 www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com 16.50 Closing Keynote “ Impact that borrowing during the latest cycle has had on the mining & metals sectors” Michael Lynch-Bell Head of Mining Ernst & Young
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. Copper supply and demand in recessions Global Mining Investment Conference Source: ICSG, Ernst & Young Recessionary periods
  • 14. FTSE sector price/earnings ratios Global Mining Investment Conference Source: Ernst & Young, Thomson Datastream At 31 January 2009: FTSE Industrial Metals 9.19 FTSE All Share 8.70 FTSE 100 8.51 FTSE Mining 3.85 At 25 September 2009: FTSE All Share 17.44 FTSE 100 16.36 FTSE Industrial Metals 16.02 FTSE Mining 9.87
  • 15. Key mining indices in 2009 Global Mining Investment Conference Source: Ernst & Young, Thomson Datastream
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. Our views and opinions Global Mining Investment Conference
  • 21.
  • 22. London Global Mining Investment Conference Stationers Hall, London Wednesday 30 th September 2009 www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com Michael Lynch-Bell Head of Mining Ernst & Young Michael Lynch-Bell is responsible for leading both Ernst & young’s Mining & Metals team across EMEIA and its global Mining & Metals transaction advisory services team. Mr Lynch-Bell has spent over thirty four years in the firm specialising in the provision of services to the extractive industries sectors and has worked with most of the firm’s extractive industry sector clients in many different parts of the world. He is Chairman of the ad hoc group of experts to the United Nations Framework Classification Committee on Reserves and Resources and is on the advisory panel to the IASB’s Extractive Industries Project.