Präsentation von Christian Kastrop, Direktor für wirtschaftspolitische Studien bei der OECD

1. OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Paris, 1 June, 2016
Christian Kastrop
Director, Economics Department
www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htm
ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com/

2. Global GDP growth is low
Global GDP growth in
2016 projected to be
about the same as 2015;
2017 only a little stronger
Growth is flat in
advanced economies,
slower in many EMEs
Projections
Real GDP, Annual percentage changes
1. Moving nominal GDP weights using purchasing power parities. 2. Fiscal years starting in April.
Source: OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database.
GDP growth
2014 2015 2016 2017
World1
3.3 3.0 3.0 3.3
United States 2.4 2.4 1.8 2.2
Euro area 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.7
United Kingdom 2.9 2.3 1.7 2.0
Japan 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.4
China 7.3 6.9 6.5 6.2
India2
7.2 7.4 7.4 7.5
Brazil 0.1 -3.9 -4.3 -1.7
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3. Global trade growth is weak,
particularly in Asia
Note: SE Asia includes Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
Euro area and SE Asia include intra-regional trade.
Source: OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database; OECD calculations.
Trade in goods and services
Real annual growth
A return to
pre-crisis trade
growth would
boost productivity
by 1 per cent on
average after
5 years
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4. Weak exports and investment are
weighing on US growth
Contributions to quarterly US GDP growth
Source: OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database.
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5. Labour markets are healing only slowly
Employment rateUnemployment rate
Note: Unemployment rates are 2016Q1 for Canada, Japan and the United States.
Source: Eurostat; OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database; OECD Labour Force Statistics; OECD Main Economic Indicators; United States
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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6. Innovation and diffusion have slowed
Labour productivity
Note: Each line shows the average labour productivity (value added per worker). The “Top 5%” and “Top 100” are the globally most productive firms in each two-digit industry. “Non-frontier
firms” is the average of all firms, excluding the Top 5%. Included industries are manufacturing and business services, excluding the financial sector. The coverage of firms in the dataset varies
across the 24 countries in the sample and is restricted to firms with at least 20 employees.
Source: OECD preliminary results based on Andrews, D., C. Criscuolo and P. Gal (2016), “Mind the Gap: Productivity Divergence between the Global Frontier and Laggard Firms”, OECD
Productivity Working Papers, forthcoming; Orbis data of Bureau van Dijk.
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7. Incomes are rising very slowly for
most workers, increasing inequality
Inequality in income is increasing
Real household disposable income, total population
Note: OECD is the unweighted average of the countries for which data are available.
Source: OECD estimations based on Kappeler et al. (2016), “Decoupling of Productivity and Median Wage Growth: Macro-Level Evidence”, OECD Economics Department
Working Papers, forthcoming; OECD National Accounts database; OECD Earnings database; OECD Income Distribution database; OECD calculations.
Wages growing less than productivity
Annualised real growth rates, per hour worked,
1990-2013
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8. Failure to get out of the low-growth trap
means broken promises to the youth
Note: For LHS, OECD is the unweighted average of 34 OECD countries. 2013 for Chile and the United States. Youth aged 15-24 for Japan.
Source: OECD calculations based on national labour force surveys; OECD Short-Term Labour Market Statistics database.
Inactive and unemployed youth
Share of all youth (15-29 years old)
Change in OECD employment rate
From Q4 2007 to Q4 2015, % pts
Unemployment in
the first 10 years
of a worker’s
career
leads to large
differences in
life-time earnings
8

9. Monetary policy is in unchartered waters
Negative central bank deposit
rates in a number of economies
Source: Thomson Reuters.
Central bank balance sheets
9

10. Fiscal policy: use the opportunity to lock-in
low borrowing costs and boost growth
Note: Simulation using the NiGEM model, based on a two-year increase in the level of government investment equivalent to
½ per cent of GDP per annum in all OECD countries. The euro area figures are a weighted average of Germany, France and Italy.
Source: OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database; OECD calculations.
Collective
action should
focus on
quality public
investment and
pro-growth
structural
policies
1st year effects of a ½ per cent of GDP public investment increase by all OECD economies
Change from baseline
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11. Structural policies to increase productivity
can also boost demand and employment
Note: EMEs include Brazil, Chile, China, Columbia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Turkey and
South Africa; Mexico and Turkey only prior to 2011. Advanced includes the rest of the OECD.
Source: OECD Going for Growth 2016.
Shift the composition of public spending to
investment
Encourage firm entry and investment in
service sectors
Reduce barriers to geographic and jobs
mobility
Package simultaneous labour and product
market reforms
Improve function of financial system and
access to credit
The pace of structural reform has slowed
Share of OECD Going for Growth recommendations implemented
Unique package for each country:
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12. Summary
Diagnosis: Low-growth trap
•Subdued investment, trade, employment, wage, and productivity growth
Risks: Substantial downside
•Brexit, EME financial vulnerabilities, increased financial market volatility
Consequences: Broken promises to young, old, investors
•Slowing productivity, reduced long-term growth prospects, rising inequality
Recommendations: Comprehensive, coherent, collective action
•Quality public investment, country-specific structural reforms, reduce
burden on monetary policy
Outcome: A high-growth path that keeps promises
•Stronger investment, trade, employment, consumption, productivity, equity12

13. Wirtschaftswachstum in Deutschland stabil
Quelle: OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database.
BIP-Wachstum (Jahresraten)
-2
0
2
4
6
-2
0
2
4
6
2010Q4
2011Q2
2011Q4
2012Q2
2012Q4
2013Q2
2013Q4
2014Q2
2014Q4
2015Q2
2015Q4
2016Q2
2016Q4
2017Q2
2017Q4
%
%
Deutschland Euro Raum USA Österreich
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14. Das Wachstum 2016 wird von Konsum und
Wohnungsbau getragen
Projections
Real GDP, Annual percentage changes
Wachstum ausgewählter BIP Komponenten
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
%%
privater Konsum Staatskonsum Wohnbau Exporte
Quelle: OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database.
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15. Die Arbeitslosigkeit bleibt niedrig
Projections
Real GDP, Annual percentage changes
Quelle: OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database und Statistisches Bundesamt.
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
3
4
5
6
7
8
2009Q4
2010Q2
2010Q4
2011Q2
2011Q4
2012Q2
2012Q4
2013Q2
2013Q4
2014Q2
2014Q4
2015Q2
2015Q4
2016Q2
2016Q4
2017Q2
2017Q4
%%
Arbeitslosenquote Quote freier Stellen
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16. Die Unternehmensinvestitionen im Euro Raum
besonders verhalten – auch in Deutschland
Projections
Real GDP, Annual percentage changes
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2007 = 1002007 = 100
Deutschland Frankreich USA europäische Hocheinkommensländer außerhalb des Euro Raums
Quelle: OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database.
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17. Das Produktivitätswachstum hat nachgelassen
und die Dienstleistungen fallen zurück
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1997=1001997=100 Bruttowertschöpfung je geleisteter Arbeitsstunde, in konstanten Preisen
Verarbeitendes Gewerbe Unternehmensdienstleistungen
Quelle: OECD (2015), OECD Productivity Database und OECD National Accounts Database.
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18. Wirtschaftspolitische Empfehlungen für
Deutschland
Source: OECD Going for Growth 2016; OECD calculations.
Haushaltspolitische Spielräume nutzen, um inklusives Wachstum zu fördern
Die Integration der Flüchtlinge und Einwanderer verbessern und beschleunigen
Hemmnisse für Frauen, die ganztags arbeiten wollen, abbauen.
Restriktive Regulierung der freien Berufe reduzieren und Netzindustrien
wettbewerbsfreundlicher regulieren
Hemmnisse für den Strukturwandel abbauen
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19. Exportleistung in Österreich seit 2012 stark
rückläufig
Quelle: OECD Economic Outlook Database.
Anmerkung: Exportleistung beschreibt Entwicklung der eigenen Exporte im Vergleich zur Entwicklung der
Exportmärkte (gewichtete Summe der Importe der Partnerländer)
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
AUT DEU
Exportleistung (2008Q1=100)
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20. Trotz schwachen Wachstums ist die Inflation in Österreich
deutlich höher als in Deutschland und der Euro-Zone
Quelle: OECD Economic Outlook Database.
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
AUT DEU EA15
Verbraucherpreisindex (jährliche Wachstumsrate in %)
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21. Wirtschaftspolitische Empfehlungen für
Österreich
Bankenabwicklung auf Basis von Gläubigerbeteilung muss weiter vorangetrieben
werden um die Restrukturierung des Bankensektors zu beschleunigen
Eine ausgeglichenere Beteiligung am Arbeitsmarkt zwischen Mann und Frau sollte
gefördert werden (Ausbau von Ganztagsschulen, steuerliche Anreize, etc.)
Restriktive Regulierung im Dienstleistungsbereich sollte gelockert werden, um die
Inflationslücke und persistente Produktivitätsschwäche zu überwinden
Schnelle und gezielte Eingliederung der Flüchtlinge würde soziale Kohäsion, Wachstum
und Staatsfinanzen langfristig unterstützen
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22. Email: christian.kastrop@oecd.org
www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htm
ECOBLOG: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com/
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