Germany 2018-oecd-economic-survey-sustaining-strong-and-inclusive-growth
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Presentation of the 2018 Economic Survey of Germany
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Germany 2018-oecd-economic-survey-sustaining-strong-and-inclusive-growth
- 1. 2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF GERMANY Sustaining strong and inclusive growth Berlin, June 12th 2018 @OECD @OECDeconomy http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-germany.htm
- 2. 2 Wellbeing is high Source: OECD (2017), OECD Better Life Index, www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org. 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Income and wealth Jobs and earnings Housing Work and life balance Health status Education and skills Social connections Civic engagement and governance Environmental quality Personal security Subjective well- being OECD Better Life Index, 2017 Germany OECD
- 3. 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Real GDP, Index 2007= 100 Euro Area Germany 3 Economic growth is robust Source: OECD (2018), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database).
- 4. 4 Relative poverty is low Note: The poverty line is 60% of median household income. Household income is adjusted to take into account household size. Source: OECD (2018), OECD Social and Welfare Statistics (database). 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 CZE ISL DNK SVK FIN NOR FRA AUT NLD SVN LUX DEU HUN CHE SWE IRL BEL GBR POL OECD PRT KOR NZL ITA AUS GRC CAN JPN EST ESP LVA CHL USA MEX TUR ISR Population with disposable income below the poverty line, % of population, 2015
- 5. 5 Unemployment is at a record low Source: Statistisches Bundesamt. 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 1991Q1 1992Q1 1993Q1 1994Q1 1995Q1 1996Q1 1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017Q1 2018Q1 Unemployment rate, % of labour force
- 6. 6 Most German youth are in employment, education or training Source: OECD (2017), "Education at a glance: Educational attainment and labour-force status", OECD Education Statistics (database). 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 ISL LUX NLD DNK SWE CHE NOR DEU JPN AUT NZL AUS SVN CZE BEL CAN GBR FIN ISR OECD USA LVA EST POL HUN PRT SVK IRL FRA CHL ESP MEX GRC ITA TUR Youth not in employment, education or training (NEET), % of 15-29 year-olds, 2016
- 7. 7 Wage growth remains moderate -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 2017Q1 2017Q3 2018Q1 Nominal wage growth and inflation Year-on-year growth rates, % Inflation Nominal wage rate Note: Inflation is that of the Harmonised consumer price index (HICP). Source: OECD (2018), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database).
- 8. 8 High corporate saving contributes to the current account surplus Source: OECD calculations based on OECD (2018), OECD National Accounts Statistics (database) and OECD (2018), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database ). -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Current account and saving-investment balance, % of GDP Current account balance Saving-investment balance of corporations
- 9. CHALLENGES 9
- 10. 10 Trend productivity growth has slowed Note: Average annual growth in trend labour productivity. Source: OECD (2018), "OECD Economic Outlook No. 102 (Edition 2017/2)", OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database). 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 DEU GBR JPN FRA CAN SWE USA 1996-2006 2006-16 Average annual rate of labour productivity growth,
- 11. 0 9 18 27 36 45 0 9 18 27 36 45 Total Low skilled Medium skilled High skilled Women Men Employees earning low wage, % of all employees Germany EU 11 Many workers earn low wages Note: employees earning low wage are those earning less than two thirds of the median gross hourly earnings. Source: Eurostat (2018), Employment and working conditions (database).
- 12. 12 Highly educated women earn much less than men Source: OECD (2016), Education at a Glance 2016: OECD Indicators. 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 AUT CAN DEU FRA OECD NLD AUS GBR FIN DNK SWE Women's earnings as % of men's earnings, Tertiary education graduates, 2014
- 13. 13 CO2 emissions have fallen little in recent years 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CO2 emission, tonnes per capita Germany OECD Note: Emission is production based. Source: OECD (2018), Green Growth Indicators (database).
- 14. 14 Small particle emissions have not fallen recently 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Mean annual concentration of PM2.5, µg/m³ Germany OECD Source: OECD (2018), Green Growth Indicators (database).
- 15. USING FISCAL POLICY TO SUPPORT INCLUSIVE GROWTH 15
- 16. 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 CHL NZL ISR MEX CHE KOR IRL AUS CAN GBR LUX USA ISL NLD JPN OECD NOR TUR DNK POL ESP PRT GRC FIN EST SVK SVN ITA CZE SWE FRA AUT DEU HUN BEL Labour income tax and social security contributions, as % of labour costs, 2017 Average tax wedge Personal income tax Social security contributions 16 Labour taxes on low incomes are high Note: Income tax plus employee and employer social security contributions less cash benefits for single person, no child, earning 67% of average earnings. Source: OECD (2018), Taxing Wages Statistics (database).
- 17. 17 Environmental tax revenue could be higher 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 MEX USA CAN CHL NZL JPN SVK CHE ESP AUS DEU FRA LUX ISL BEL NOR IRL PRT SWE GBR KOR EST HUN CZE GRC FIN AUT ISR NLD TUR ITA SVN DNK Environmental tax revenue, % of GDP, 2014 Source: OECD (2018), "OECD Instruments used for environmental policy", OECD Environment Statistics (database).
- 18. 18 Expenditure on primary education is low 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 FRA NZL IRL AUS NLD DEU OECD FIN JPN CAN SVN KOR BEL SWE AUT ISL USA GBR DNK NOR CHE LUX Annual public expenditure in primary education, Per student, USD thousand, PPPs, 2014 21.2 Source: OECD (2017), Education at a Glance 2017: OECD Indicators.
- 19. 19 Ageing related spending will increase Source: European Commission (2015), "The 2015 ageing report: Economic and budgetary projections for the 28 EU Member States (2013-2060)". Based on the reference scenario. 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 2020 2035 2060 %% Projections on ageing related spending, % of GDP Pensions, net Health care Long-term care
- 20. • Use fiscal leeway in a prudent manner, taking capacity constraints into account, to lower the taxation of low wage earnings and to raise priority spending on childcare, education and life-long learning as well as for low- emission transport infrastructure. • Index the legal pension age to life expectancy. • Introduce spending reviews more broadly at the federal and Länder level and use them to reallocate funding across broad spending fields. More in the Key Policy Insights of the Economic Survey of Germany 2018 20 Key recommendations for fiscal policies supporting steady inclusive growth
- 21. • Extend charging station infrastructure to promote electrification of road transport. • Develop congestion pricing. • Remove regulatory hurdles to new low-emission urban transport services, including ride-sharing. More in the Key Policy Insights of the Economic Survey of Germany 2018 21 Key recommendations for boosting green growth
- 22. BOOSTING PRODUCTIVITY AND PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE OF WORK 22
- 23. 23 Technology diffusion has slowed Multifactor productivity level of German firms, index 2006 =100 Note:The Best performers are the top 5% firms with highest productivity within each 2-digit sector . Source: OECD calculations based on ORBIS dataset. 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 A. Manufacturing The rest Best performers 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 B. Services The rest Best performers
- 24. 24 Small and medium sized firms lag behind in productivity Note: Large firms are firms with more than 250 employed persons. Source: OECD calculations based on OECD (2017), Entrepreneurship at a Glance 2017. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 DEU DNK CHE SWE FRA ITA FIN ESP BEL AUT GBR NLD Value added per person employed in SMEs, % of the level of large firms, 2014 Small (20-49 persons) Medium (50-249 persons)
- 25. 25 Knowledge-based capital contributes little to productivity growth Source: OECD (2017), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2017: The digital transformation. 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 GBR LUX ITA GRC NOR USA ESP DEU PRT NLD EST DNK CZE FIN FRA AUT BEL SWE Contribution of KBC to labour productivity growth, Percentage points, business sector, 2000-14
- 26. 26 Entrepreneurship has declined 80 90 100 110 120 130 80 90 100 110 120 130 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 2017Q1 Number of new enterprises, index 2012=100 Belgium Netherlands Germany Note: the number of new enterprises is adjusted for business cycle components. Source: OECD (2017), Entrepreneurship at a Glance 2017.
- 27. 27 Women’s entrepreneurship is low Source: OECD (2017), Entrepreneurship at a Glance 2017. 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 NOR JPN DNK SWE EST DEU USA IRL ISL SVN LUX FRA HUN LTU AUT FIN ISR LVA CHE BEL GBR TUR ROU OECD SVK PRT CAN ZAF ESP CZE NLD AUS POL NZL KOR ITA BRA GRC CHL MEX The share of self-employed women, % of total active women, 2016
- 28. 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 GBR JPN DEU PRT ESP USA CHE FRA ISR IRL GRC CHL FIN SVN NZL ITA CZE POL MEX LVA AUT NOR SVK TUR SWE AUS CAN BEL NLD HUN EST OECD indicator of insolvency regime, From least (0) to most (1) restrictive, 2016 28 The insolvency regime is efficient Note: The OECD insolvency regime indicator capture (1) personal costs to failed entrepreneurs, (2) lack of preventative and streamlining measures and (3) barriers to restructuring. Higher values of the composite indicator correspond to more inefficiency. Source: Adalet McGowan, M., D. Andrews and V. Millot (2017), "Insolvency regimes, zombie firms and capital reallocation", OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1399.
- 29. 29 The personal costs of failed entrepreneurs are high Note: The subcomponent captures the stringency of the restrictiveness on the insolvency procedure on failed entrepreneurs, including the length of discharge period. Source: Adalet McGowan, M., D. Andrews and V. Millot (2017), "Insolvency regimes, zombie firms and capital reallocation", OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1399. 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 CAN TUR USA AUS CHL GBR JPN LTU RUS AUT CHE CRI DNK ESP FIN FRA GRC IRL ITA LVA MEX NOR NZL SVK SVN BEL DEU EST HUN ISR KOR NLD POL PRT SWE CZE The subcomponent of the OECD insolvency indicator on personal costs of failed entrepreneurs, from least (0) to most (1) restrictive, 2016
- 30. 30 Low use of e-government raises costs of start-ups 0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80 JPN MEX ITA CHL CZE SVK DEU SVN CAN POL TUR HUN GRC PRT LVA ESP AUT LTU GBR BEL LUX CHE SWE IRL FRA NLD FIN NOR EST DNK Individuals submitting forms to authorities online, % of individual surveyed, 2016 Source: OECD (2017), OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2017.
- 31. 31 Entry barriers to professional services are high Source: OECD (2015), OECD Product Market Regulation Database. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 SWE FIN GBR DNK CHE AUS NOR NZL NLD IRL MEX CHL EST OECD ITA JPN KOR FRA CZE ESP BEL SVN ISR DEU AUT SVK PRT GRC HUN CAN POL LUX TUR Indicator of regulation in professional services, From least (0) to most (6) stringent
- 32. 32 Internet connection speed is slow Source: Akamai (2017), “Akamai’s state of the Internet report: Q1 2017 report”, https://www.akamai.com. 0 30 60 90 120 0 30 60 90 120 GRC MEX FRA TUR ITA AUS LUX SVN EST LTU AUT CHL DEU POL PRT SVK IRL NZL DNK GBR FIN CZE HUN CAN LVA NLD ESP BEL NOR USA CHE JPN SWE KOR Average peak connection speed, Megabits per second, Q1 2017
- 33. 33 Many jobs may undergo substantial changes 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 NOR NZL FIN SWE USA GBR DNK NLD CAN BEL IRL EST KOR ISR AUT CZE FRA POL ITA ESP SVN CHL DEU JPN GRC TUR SVK Jobs at high risk of automation and significant change, % of all jobs Jobs at high risk of automation Jobs at risk of significant change Source: Nedelkoska, L. and G. Quintini (2018), "Automation, skills use and training", OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 202, OECD Publishing, Paris.
- 34. Boost entrepreneurship and resource allocation • Ease the conditions for bankrupt entrepreneurs to be discharged of debt after 3 years, while maintaining adequate safeguards for creditors. • Create a one stop shop to process all procedures for starting up a company online. • Reduce restrictive regulation in the professional services, safeguarding quality standards and consumer interests. • Privatise government stakes in the Landesbanken, car manufacturing, telecommunications and postal services. Strengthen digital infrastructure through competition • Use the upcoming radio spectrum auction to promote competition in the mobile market. Expand social protection for the self employed • Make enrolment in public old-age pension mandatory for the self-employed who are not covered by old-age pension insurance. • Open access to public health insurance to all self-employed. More in Chapter 1 of the Economic Survey of Germany 2018 34 Key recommendations for boosting productivity and preparing for the future of work
- 35. IMPROVING SKILLS AND THEIR USE 35
- 36. 36 Adults skills lag behind leading countries PIAAC mean proficiency scores in literacy Note: The data refer to 15-65 year-olds Source: OECD (2016), Skills Matter: Further Results from the Survey of Adult Skills. 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 FRA OECD AUT USA DEU DNK GBR CAN EST SWE AUS NLD FIN JPN
- 37. 37 Literacy skills are low among workers with low education attainment PIAAC mean proficiency scores in literacy, by educational attainment Note: The data refer to 15-65 year-olds Source: OECD (2016), Skills Matter: Further Results from the Survey of Adult Skills. 200 230 260 290 320 350 200 230 260 290 320 350 JPN OECD DEU Less than upper secondary Tertiary Upper secondary
- 38. 38 ICT skills lag behind leading countries, especially among the young Population with above basic ICT skills, % of total population, by age cohort, 2017 Source: Eurostat (2018), Individuals' level of digital skills (database). 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 EU28 FRA DEU SWE GBR AUT FIN DNK NLD 16-24 year-olds 25-54 year-olds 55-64 year-olds
- 39. 39 Women’s skills are under-used Note: Gender differences in problem solving skills at work is captured as the difference in of the mean use of skills between men and women. Source: OECD (2016), Skills Matter: Further Results from the Survey of Adult Skills. 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 FIN GBR(Eng.) SWE USA DNK AUS CAN OECD FRA NLD DEU AUT JPN Gender difference in PIAAC problem solving skills at work, % of the mean use of skills by women
- 40. 40 Educational attainment of disadvantaged students has improved Note: The share of students achieving level 3 or above in all three PISA domains (reading, mathematics and science) among the 25% most disadvantaged students in their country according to the PISA index of economic, social and cultural status. Source: Agasisti, T., et al. (2018), "Academic resilience: What schools and countries do to help disadvantaged students succeed in PISA", OECD Education Working Papers, No. 167. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 USA AUT FRA SWE OECD GBR AUS DNK DEU NLD FIN CAN JPN Students with mid-level or higher PISA attainment, as % of disadvantaged students 2016 2006
- 41. 41 Parents’ educational attainment influences children’s skills Note: Difference in PIAAC literacy scores between individuals aged 25-65 with one parent educated to tertiary level and no parent educated to upper secondary level. The adjusted differences take into account differences in age, gender, education, immigrant and language background. Source: OECD (2016), Skills Matter: Further Results from the Survey of Adult Skills. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 AUS JPN SWE KOR CAN DNK NLD OECD AUT FIN GBR FRA DEU Difference in PIAAC literacy scores between individuals with parents with high and low educational attainments Unadjusted Adjusted for socio-economic background
- 42. 42 The income of vocational graduates increases only little over their lifetime 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 Yearly earnings of 25-65 year-olds men, euros Vocational upper secondary Vocational tertiary education General tertiary education age Source: Economic Survey of Germany 2018.
- 43. 43 Participation in lifelong learning could be higher 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Participation in life-long learning, % of population aged 26-64, 2017 Germany Sweden European Union Source: Eurostat (2018), Education and training (database).
- 44. Improve equity in education • Raise quality standards in childcare and early childhood education. • Expand primary education to high-quality full-day education programmes. Reduce skill mismatch • Lower the tax burden on the wage income of second earners. • Increase the minimum amount of time the second parent has to take parental leave, from the current 2 months, for the couple to receive the maximum leave entitlement. Improve upskilling opportunities in the vocational education system • Strengthen general education within vocational schools, and maintain the strong labour market orientation of vocational education and training. Boost participation in life-long learning • Offer more training programmes for the modular acquisition of qualifications in life-long learning and foster the recognition of skills acquired on-the-job. • Strengthen support for unskilled adults to obtain professional qualifications. More in the Chapter 2 of the Economic Survey of Germany 2018 44 Key recommendations for improving skills and their use
- 45. 45 For more information http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-germany.htm Disclaimers: The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.