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3. Chargers-Bills
• Teams off loss as a favorite rebound in week 2 at 73-56-4 rate (Chargers)
o 62.1 percent when not a home favorite this game
o Home underdogs off a loss of 40 or more are 10-3 against the spread
o Philip Rivers predictably unpredictable
o Bills abysmal
o Chargers pass rusher Joey Bosa is out
o Yes home underdogs of 7 or more 53.6 percent but only 33-40 when hosting a team off a loss of seven or more
o Fading teams that average 3 or less points per game, unless they are home favorites is 18-8 (San Diego)
o Josh Allen makes first career start after going 6-of-15 for 74 yards passing and 26 yards rushing
o Underdogs of six or more off loss of 20 or more are 258-213-7 for 54.8 (Bills)
o Home underdogs of 6.5 or more off loss of 24 or more 68-39 for 63.6 (Bills)
o But 4-8 since 2013
Eagles-Buccaneers
Tampa has terrible last season and undervalued, while Eagles had everything to right
Tampa WR DeSean Jackson upgraded to probable
5 catches in week 1, 106 previous two years
Both teams with backup, but very experienced QBs
Eagles Nick Foles
Bills Ryan Fitzpatrick
Road favorites that had at least 200 fewer total yards than their opponent did previous week are 20-9
Listen to what the oddsmakers are telling you
Eagles RB Darren Sproles is out
3,376 career yards rushing on 4.9 yards per carry
Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery who has had five straight seasons of 52 or more catches is out
4. Browns-Saints
Teams off loss as a favorite rebound in week 2 at 73-56-4 rate (Saints)
Fade teams that have no more than one win last 22 SU is 27-10 (Saints)
Teams off loss as large favorite are 95-66 (Saints)
Large home favorites with statistically worse defense is 79-57 (Saints)
Browns tie, mentally draining, but Saints loss motivating
Teams off a tie 6-14 (go with Saints)
Saints still without Mark Ingram
1124 yards rushing last year, averages 4.5 yards per carry in 5362 lifetime yards
NO plays Atlanta next week
Browns dangerous WR Josh Gordon will be cut
Browns without one of their best pass rushers in Emmanuel Ogbah
New Orleans defense is more healthy this week
Saints top scoring home offense since 2015
When Saints home game total has gone up by up to two points, the OVER is 23-10
After being most improved defense last year, Saints torched for 529 yard and 48 points to backup Ryan Fitzpatric last week
Pick: NEW ORLEANS -9
Cardinals-Rams
Teams off loss as a favorite rebound in week 2 at 73-56-4 rate (Cardinals)
62.1 percent when not a home favorite this game
Cards starting OT Andrew Smith is out
Lions-49ers
Teams off loss as a favorite rebound in week 2 at 73-56-4 rate (Lions)
62.1 percent when not a home favorite this game
Go against favorites of 2 or more if it’s their first game as favorite is 209-168-15 (Lions)
Lions starting T T.J. Lang is out
Jimmy Garoppolo now facing burden of high expectations
Many examples of QBs being great fade once they go from hunter to hunted
Stafford 7-14-1 underdogs of six or more
Underdogs of six or more off loss of 20 or more are 258-213-7 for 54.8 (Lions)
5. Colts-Redskins
• Teams off loss as a favorite rebound in week 2 at 73-56-4 rate (Colts)
o 62.1 percent when not a home favorite this game
o Go against favorites of 2 or more if it’s their first game as favorite is 209-168-15 (Colts)
o Solid momentum angle that has to do with undefeated team versus a winless team under specific circumstances that apply today is 70-49-2
o Skins undervalued as not sure Cousins to Smith is drop-off, Colts overvalued
o Colts Anthony Castonzo is out after being considered probable early in the week
o OL ravaged by injury and they were counting on his return
o Home teams in week 2 that covered by seven or more previous week 39-29-4 (Washington)
o Andrew Luck a stunning 22-6 off SU loss, covering by 6.9 points per game
o 10-1 as underdog by 13.4 points per game
Panthers-Falcons
Go against favorites of 2 or more if it’s their first game as favorite is 209-168-15 (Panthers)
Falcons RB Devonta Freeman is doubtful
Averages 4.3 yards per carry in his career and twice rushed for over 1,000 yards
Panthers WR Curtis Samuel, fellow WR Damiere Byrd and G Trai Turner all are out
Samuel 15 receptions in 9 games, 4 starts last year
Byrd had 10 catches last year
Panthers OL Matt Kalil, Daryl Williams and superstar TE Greg Olsen remain out
But Falcons defense with LBs Deion Jones and Keanu Neal, both devastating injuries
Playoff teams from previous season are 42-28 against the spread in week 2 home openers
Cam Newton 29-19 against the spread as underdog including 8-6 last 14 SU for +9 units
6.
7. Texans-Titans
Go against favorites of 2 or more if it’s their first game as favorite is 209-168-15 (Titans)
Titans starting QB Marcus Mariota limited in practice
Look for both Mariota and journeyman Blain Gabbert to get playing time
Texans star WR DeAndre Hopkins is questionable and will be limited if he does play
Among 4 Texans WR dealing with injuries
Going against teams that open the season with back-to-back road games is 28-16 including 15-4 in the second of those two road g
Including walking wounded, one could argue Tennessee most injured offense in NFL
Patriots-Jaguars
Jacksonville RB Leonard Fournette is game-time decision
9 carries, 45 yards off 1,040 yards last year at 3.9 yards per carry
New England RB by committee but banged up
Brady 44-19-5 against the spread to AFC foes with a winning percentage above .500
Vikings-Packers
oPackers QB Aaron Rogers is practiced Saturday for the first time and is listed as probable
oBackups DeShone Kizer and Tim Boyle
o Will likely have Davante Adams
8. Miami-Jets
Dolphins WR DeVante Park is probable
56 and 7 catches the last two years
Go against favorites of 2 or more if it’s their first game as favorite is 209-168-15 (Dolphins)
Teams off impressive prime-time win 123-72-8 (Jets)
Jets LB Josh Martin is out
14 games, 9 starts last year with 48 combined tackles
Jets DB Marcus May out
16 starts last year with 79 combined tackles
LG Josh Sitton, who played every offensive snap in game 1 it out for the year
4 time Pro Bowler
Ted Larson, who has 73 starts in 111 games, takes over
Jets 2-6 against the spread under Todd Bowles off win as an underdog previous week, failing by 9.2 points per game
Chiefs-Steelers
o Ben Roethlisberger has missed practice this week with bruised right elbow, but probable
o 99.1 QBR at home, compared to 88.7 road
o Le’Veon Bell still out
o Teams off a tie 6-14 (fade Pittsburgh)
o Fading home favorites off a tie is 75-54 (KC)
o Chiefs star S Eric Berry is doubtful, opening up passing game for Pittsburgh
o Ben Roethlisberger is most profitable QB to the UNDER, when fading total line move, going under 49-37
o Gone from 49.5 to 54
o Antonio Brown last four games to Chiefs averaging 6 receptions for 113 yards
o Going against teams that scored 28 or more in week 1 is 52-28 (fade KC, go with Pittsburgh)
o 7-17 if they also allowed 28 or more
9. Raiders-Broncos
Oakland down both starting defensive tackles
Raiders short week and going to high altitude
Underdogs of six or more off loss of 20 or more are 258-213-7 for 54.8 percent (Oakland)
Giants-Cowboys
Two winless teams, go with underdog is 88-66-5 (Giants)
58.8 percent road
Cowboys nobody to catch ball, Zeke Ellliot looking like physical style already caught up to him
Just 69 yards last week, though only carried 15 times
Six year starting LB Olivier Vernon is out for Giants
Dallas with 61 percent against the spread home winning percentage under Jason Garrett
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Biggest line moves:
Green Bay opened -2.5 to Minnesota, now +2.5
Jets P to Miami, now -3
New Orleans -7 to -9.5
Percentage of bets: Houston, LA Chargers, Minnesota, Philadelphia
Percentage of money: Minnesota, Philadelphia, San Francisco, LA Chargers, New Orleans, Houston