Contenu connexe Similaire à Earned value (20) Earned value1. IBM Global Services (ITS)
10/30/15 © 2004 IBM Corporation
Earned Value Analysis
Dr. Oliver Klapp
2. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
2 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Agenda
1
2
3
4
Earned Value Einführung, Definition, Nutzen
Vergleich verschiedener “Forecast”-Methoden
Terminologie und Fragestellungen
Berechnungsbeispiel zu Earned Value
5 Beispielbericht SOKO Juli 205
Hints & Tips
Anhang
6
7
3. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
3 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Agenda
1
2
3
4
Earned Value Einführung, Definition, Nutzen
Vergleich verschiedener “Forecast”-Methoden
Terminologie und Fragestellungen
Berechnungsbeispiel zu Earned Value
5 Beispielbericht SOKO Juli 205
Hints & Tips
Anhang
6
7
4. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
4 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Objectives
Understand project financial data analysis
acronyms and formulas
Analyze project data and PREDICT project
financial performance
Understand how Earned Value Analysis can
enhance the overall project performance
5. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
5 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Earned Value Management - Definitions
Department of Defense literature defines earned value
management as the following:
"Earned Value Management is the use of an integrated management
system that coordinates work scope, schedule, and cost goals and
objectively measures progress toward those goals."
PMI/WWPMM Glossary describes earned value analysis as:
“The process of comparing actual performance with planned
performance using earned value as the method for measuring project
performance.”
6. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
6 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
EV Management – Value (to Organization) 1/2
Benefits are both intrinsic and extrinsic
• Meet budget, schedule and scope objectives
• Earlier awareness of problems (and resolution)
• Improved communication of status
• Solid basis for management decisions
• Hilft dem Management Bereiche zu identifizieren, die zusätzliche
Aufmerksamkeit des Managements erfordern
• Helps identify poor or inadequate planning
• Liefert die Basis für einen realistischen Plan gegen den die
Performance gemessen werden kann
• Basis for better planning on future projects
• Broadens perspective of many Project Managers
• Increased customer satisfaction and profitability
• Wenn ein Aufgabe innerhalb Scope, Zeitplan und Budget erledigt
werden kann, steigt das Vertrauen in eine erfolgreiche Fertigstellung
7. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
7 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
EV Management – Value (to Organization) 2/2
Liefert wahre Kostendaten
– Verhindert Kostenabweichungen
– Ermöglicht realistische Projektionen der Gesamtkosten
– Erhöht die Genauigkeit der Kosten-Schätzungen
Reduziert die Möglichkeit des Kunden / Managements zusätzliche
Arbeit ohne zusätzliches Budget aufzuerlegen
– Verbindet direkt Budget und Arbeit
– Erzwingt für zusätzliche Arbeit zusätzliches Budget
– Erzwingt für reduziertes Budget eine Reduzierung der Arbeit
Ermöglicht Management Entscheidungen in einem realistischen
Rahmen gegenüber latenter Unsicherheit
8. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
8 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
EV Management - Getting Started
Earned Value Management
• Requires basic project management practices be in place
• Integrate Earned Value (EV) concepts and processes across all
components of the Project Management System
– Documented in an EV management plan
– Uses EV analysis to look at and report on data that is collected
and managed as part of regularly accepted project management
activities
9. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
9 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
EV Management - Criteria for Success
Successful implementation of EV Management requires:
• Determine early if EV Management is going to be used and include
in all planning activities
• Define a WBS with clearly identifiable and measurable tasks
• [Include tasks in support of EV in the WBS and fund them]
• Schedule all work within required and achievable time frames
• Assign resources and costs/person days to each task
• Prepare baselines for budget and project plans
• Capture and monitor all project costs
• Track progress for scope, schedule, and budget
• [Adjust project management efforts as a result of EV analyses (i.e.
Recovery plans)]
10. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
10 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
EV Management - Processes
Processes need to be in place
• Processes to baseline budgets and project plans and record them
• Processes to obtain expenditures from Planview and other
accounting systems
• Processes to regularly assess and record work accomplished and
costs incurred
• Processes to generate Earned Value analyses and reports
• Processes for reporting status at level of detail needed to measure
progress accurately
11. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
11 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Agenda
1
2
3
4
Earned Value Einführung, Definition, Nutzen
Vergleich verschiedener “Forecast”-Methoden
Terminologie und Fragestellungen
Berechnungsbeispiel zu Earned Value
5 Beispielbericht SOKO Juli 205
Hints & Tips
Anhang
6
7
12. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
12 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Comparison of Methodologies
Go/No-Go Criteria
Milestone Tracking
Spend (Burn) Rate
Expended Effort
No Measurement
Earned Value Management
13. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
13 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Illustration - Go/No Go Criteria
Decision: Has criteria for continuing project
been successfully achieved?
14. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
14 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Illustration - Milestone Tracking
Decision: Has the team met each milestone
on time?
15. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
15 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Illustration - Spend Plan
Decision: Has the rate of budget funding
been expended at the anticipate rate?
16. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
16 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Illustration - Expended Effort
Decision: Has the rate of expended effort
been executed at the anticipated rate?
17. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
17 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
No Performance Measurement Methodology
18. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
18 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Earned Value Analysis
Earned Value Analysis is a simple, but effective, way of
understanding how a project is currently performing
against the original (baseline) plan in terms of the value
of the work completed.
19. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
19 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Developing A Baseline
100
40
60
15
25
30
30
3. Allocate Budgets
1. Define the Work
2. Schedule the Work
$ PM Baseline
Contract Budget Base
Time
100
40
60
15
25
30
30
3. Allocate Budgets
1. Define the Work
2. Schedule the Work
$ PM Baseline
Contract Budget Base
Time
20. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
20 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Performance Measurement
Definition - Effectively controlling the execution of the project
planning parameters, specifically:
– Schedule - Ensuring the timely execution of project milestones.
– Effort - Controlling the efficient expenditure of resources.
– Cost - Controlling the project budget and expenditure of funds.
Requirements - In order to monitor and control these project
parameters, the team must be able to achieve the following:
– Baseline - A reasonably competent estimate of the effort and time
needed to complete the project can be forecasted.
– Actuals - A mechanism for accurately collecting the expenditure of
effort can be implemented.
– % Complete - The team has a reliable means for accurately
determining the amount of work that has been accomplished.
21. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
21 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Agenda
1
2
3
4
Earned Value Einführung, Definition, Nutzen
Vergleich verschiedener “Forecast”-Methoden
Terminologie und Fragestellungen
Berechnungsbeispiel zu Earned Value
5 Beispielbericht SOKO Juli 205
Hints & Tips
Anhang
6
7
22. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
22 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Earned Value Fragestellungen 1/2
Questions to Ask Earned Value Term Abbreviation and Formulas
What is the project's budget? Budget at completion BAC
What did we plan to spend? Budgeted cost of work
scheduled
BCWS
What is the actual amount spent on the
project to date?
Actual cost of work
performed
ACWP
What has been completed and what is
the estimated value of those items?
Budgeted cost of work
performed
BCWP
What is the efficiency at which tasks are
getting done from a financial point of
view?
Cost performance index CPI = BCWP / ACWP
How far off are we from our scheduled
cost of things to be completed from the
actual amount spent?
Cost variance CV = BCWP - ACWP
How far off are we from our schedule
from a financial point of view?
Schedule variance SV = BCWP - BCWS
How much of the budget at completion
you have used to date?
Percent spent % Spent = ACWP / BAC
23. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
23 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Earned Value Fragestellungen 2/2
Questions to Ask Earned Value Term Abbreviation and
Formulas
How much of the project has been
completed?
Percent complete PC = BCWP / BAC
How well is the project performing in
comparison to how well it is expected
to perform?
Schedule performance index SPI = BCWP / BCWS
How much will the project cost at
completion?
Calculated Estimate at
completion
CEAC = BAC / CPI
What is the estimate of additional
funds needed to complete the project?
Estimate to complete Developed in consultation
with management.
How much will the project cost at
completion?
Estimate at Completion EAC = ACWP + ETC
How efficient must the team be to
complete the remaining work with the
remaining money?
To-complete performance
index
TCPI = (BAC - BCWP) /
(BAC - ACWP)
24. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
24 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
EV Management - Glossary
– EV Terms
PV = Planned Value or BCWS (Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled)
EV = Earned Value or BCWP (Budgeted Cost of Work Performed)
AC = Actual Cost or ACWP (Actual Cost of Work Performed)
BAC = Budget at Completion (Total of planned value at completion)
– EV Variances and indexes
SV = Schedule Variance (negative number is behind schedule, positive is ahead)
CV = Cost Variance (negative number is over budget, positive is under budget)
SPI = Schedule Performance Index (SPI < 1 behind schedule, SPI > 1 ahead)
CPI = Cost Performance Index (CPI < 1 over budget, CPI > 1 under budget)
– EV Forecasting
EAC = Estimate at Completion (derived number based upon current indexes and
budget at completion)
VAC = Variance at Completion (negative number is over budget, positive is under budget)
ETC = Estimate to Complete
25. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
25 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Agenda
1
2
3
4
Earned Value Einführung, Definition, Nutzen
Vergleich verschiedener “Forecast”-Methoden
Terminologie und Fragestellungen
Berechnungsbeispiel zu Earned Value
5 Beispielbericht SOKO Juli 205
Hints & Tips
Anhang
6
7
26. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
26 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
BCWS - Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled
The sum of approved costs for activites
Scheduled to be performed
Cumulative financial plan
The following example shows a BCWS of $50,000
per month for a six month project.
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6
BCWS/
Plan
$50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000
27. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
27 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
BAC - Budget at Completion
The estimated baseline total cost of the project at
completion
Also referred to as the original cost estimate
Many times, your BAC will equal the Total
Contract Value (E-Vorlage).
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC
BCWS/
Plan
$50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000
28. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
28 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
BCWP - Budgeted Cost of Work Performed
The sum of approved cost estimates COMPLETED
during a given period
Also referred to as Earned Value
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC
BCWS/
Plan
$50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000
BCWP $40,000 $105,000
29. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
29 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
ACWP - Actual Cost of Work Performed
Total costs and/or expenses INCURRED
Shows actuals or real cost of work performed
May be equal to, less then, or greater then what
was budgeted
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC
BCWS/
Plan
$50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000
BCWP $40,000 $105,000 $151,000
ACWP $39,000 $107,000 $160,000
30. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
30 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Earned Value Analysis
BCWSBCWS
BCWPBCWP ACWPACWP
31. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
31 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
CV - Cost Variance
The difference between the earned value of an
activity and the actual cost for that activity
BCWP - ACWP = Cost Variance (CV)
+CV = under budget, -CV = over budget
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC
BCWS/
Plan
$50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000
BCWP $40,000 $105,000 $151,000
ACWP $39,000 $107,000 $160,000
CV $1,000 ($2,000) ($9,000)
32. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
32 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
SV - Schedule Variance
The difference between the scheduled completion
of tasks and the actual completion of tasks (in
Dollars)
BCWP - BCWS = Schedule Variance (SV)
+SV = Ahead of Schedule, -SV = Behind Schedule
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC
BCWS/
Plan
$50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000
BCWP $40,000 $105,000 $151,000
ACWP $39,000 $107,000 $160,000
CV $1,000 ($2,000) ($9,000)
SV ($10,000) $5,000 $1,000
33. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
33 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Hitting the Mark - Predicting the Future
Using past performance to predict how your
project will finish financially
Can change over time
Project Reviews
Status Reports
Validate your "gut feeling"
BCWS
ACWP
BCWP
CV
SV
34. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
34 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
CPI - Cost Performance Index
Ratio of budgeted costs to actual costs
Also called the Efficiency Index
BCWP/ACWP = Cost Performance Index (CPI)
CPI = 1, AWSOME!
CPI < 1, Over Budget
CPI > 1, Under Budget
35. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
35 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
CPI - Cost Performance Index
CPI = BCWP/ACWP
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC
BCWS/
Plan
$50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000
BCWP $40,000 $105,000 $151,000
ACWP $39,000 $107,000 $160,000
CV $1,000 ($2,000) ($9,000)
SV ($10,000) $5,000 $1,000
CPI 1.03 .98 .94
36. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
36 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
ETC - Estimate To Complete
The expected additional costs needed to finish the
project
(BAC - ACWP)/CPI = Estimate to Complete (ETC)
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC
BCWS/
Plan
$50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000
BCWP $40,000 $105,000 $151,000
ACWP $39,000 $107,000 $160,000
CV $1,000 ($2,000) ($9,000)
SV ($10,000) $5,000 $1,000
CPI 1.03 .98 .94
ETC $253,398 $196,938 $148.936
37. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
37 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
EAC - Estimate At Completion
The expected total cost of the project
ACWP + ETC = Estimate At Completion (EAC)
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC
BCWS/
Plan
$50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000
BCWP $40,000 $105,000 $151,000
ACWP $39,000 $107,000 $160,000
CV $1,000 ($2,000) ($9,000)
SV ($10,000) $5,000 $1,000
CPI 1.03 .98 .94
ETC $253,398 $196,938 $148.936
EAC $292,398 $303,938 $308,936
38. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
38 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Exkurs: Varianten zur Berechnung von EAC
Es gibt verschiednene EAC Definitionen:
– EAC = ACWP+neuer ETC (wie im Beispiel)
wenn sich Konditionen oder Annahmen ändern, die der
ursprünglichen Schätzung zugrunde liegen
– EAC=BAC-CV
wenn die vergangene Performance kein guter Indikator
ist
– EAC = BAC/CPI
wenn die vergangene Performance ein guter Indikator ist
39. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
39 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
SPI - Schedule Performance Index
Ratio of work performed to work scheduled
BCWP/BCWS = Schedule Performance Index (SPI)
SPI = 1, AWSOME! On Schedule
SPI < 1, Behind Schedule
SPI > 1, Ahead of Schedule
40. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
40 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
SPI - Schedule Performance Index
BCWP/BCWS = Schedule Performance Index (SPI)
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 BAC
BCWS/
Plan
$50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $300,000
BCWP $40,000 $105,000 $151,000
ACWP $39,000 $107,000 $160,000
CV $1,000 ($2,000) ($9,000)
SV ($10,000) $5,000 $1,000
CPI 1.03 .98 .94
ETC $253,398 $196,938 $148.936
EAC $292,398 $303,938 $308,936
SPI .80 1.05 1.01
41. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
41 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Trend Analysis
Cost and Schedule
On Schedule and over budget
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3
0,75
0,8
0,85
0,9
0,95
1
1,05
1,1
IDEAL
CPI
SPI
42. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
42 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Trend Analysis
Estimate at Completion
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3
290
295
300
305
310
Thousands
Budget at Completion
Estimate at Completion
43. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
43 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Earned Value Analysis
Project is slightly ahead of schedule
Approximately 3% over budget with an Increasing
trend
Estimated final contract costs = $308,900
Original contract costs = $300,000
44. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
44 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Agenda
1
2
3
4
Earned Value Einführung, Definition, Nutzen
Vergleich verschiedener “Forecast”-Methoden
Terminologie und Fragestellungen
Berechnungsbeispiel zu Earned Value
5 Beispielbericht SOKO Juli 205
Hints & Tips
Anhang
6
7
45. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
45 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Projektkostenanalyse (Stand Ende Juli 2005)
Ergebnis: hinter time (4%), leicht unter Budget (5%);
Projektkostenanalyse Juli
Budgetdaten (in Einheiten Projekttage)
PT aus E-Vorlage 2250
BAC Plantage 2233
BCWS Soll-Tage geplante Arbeit 1207
BCWP Geleistete Arbeit 1162
ACWP Ist-Tage verrichteter Arbeit 1101
Projektfortschritt
PC Fertigstellungsgrad 52%
%spent Budgetverbrauch 49%
Abweichungen (prozentual)
CVP Kostenabweichungen 5%
SVP Planabweichungen -4%
Schätzungen zur Projektfertigstellung
EAC Gesamtkosten bei Fertigstellung 2117
VAC Kostenabweichung bei Fertigstellung (bzgl. Plan-Tage) 116
Kostenabweichung bei Fertigstellung (bzgl. E-Vorlage & CRs) 133
ETC Verbleibende Kosten bis zur Fertigstellung 1015
46. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
46 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Projektkostenanalyse (Stand Ende Juli 2005) Diagramm
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Dez
04
Feb
05
Apr05
Jun
05
Aug
05
O
kt05
Dez
05
Monate
PT
Geplante Arbeit (BCWS)
Kosten der Arbeit
(ACWP)
Geleistete Arbeit
(BCWP)
47. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
47 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Projektkostenanalyse (Stand Ende Juli 2005) Forecast &
Completion
Forecast
benötigte
Personentage
Fertigstellungs-
grad
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Jan
05Feb
05M
rz05Apr05M
ai05Jun
05Jul05Aug
05Sep
05O
kt05Nov05D
ez05
Monate
PT
BAC
E-Vorlage + CRs
EAC5=BAC/CR
EAC3=EAC = BAC/CPI
3%
6%
15%
24%
32%
42%
52%
1%
5%
14%
23%
30%
38%
49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan
05
Feb
05
Mrz
05
Apr
05
Mai
05
Jun
05
Jul
05
Aug
05
Sep
05
Okt
05
Nov
05
Dez
05
Monate
PC = BCWP / BAC
%spent = ACWP/BAC
48. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
48 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Detaildarstellung
Juli 2005
check/anpassenneu neu
Budget E-
Vorlage +
genehmigte
CRs BAC BCWS ACWP BCWP CPI CV PC CEAC SPI SV TCPI
Summe SOKO2005 2.255 2.233 1.207 1.101 1.162 1,06 61 52% 2.116 0,96 (45) 0,95
1000 App 333 228 175 175 167 0,95 (8) 73% 239 0,96 (7) 1,15
2000 DB 450 309 217 251 187 0,75 (64) 60% 414 0,86 (30) 2,09
3000 I*Net 125 99 42 51 37 0,72 (14) 37% 137 0,88 (5) 1,29
4000 SM 220 297 120 54 124 2,31 70 42% 129 1,03 4 0,71
6000 Test 200 185 129 91 121 1,33 30 65% 140 0,94 (8) 0,68
7000 RVM 160 165 27 25 27 1,06 1 16% 156 1,01 0 0,99
8000 KIDM 0 74 27 8 25 3,35 18 34% 22 0,95 (1) 0,73
8000 KID VS 0 67 0 0 0 1,00 - 0% 67 1,00 - 1,00
9000 BKSO 267 160 118 93 120 1,30 28 75% 123 1,02 2 0,59
90000 Projektmanagement 500 500 255 255 255 1,00 (0) 51% 500 1,00 0 1,00
91000 Allgemeines Projekt Management 400
92000 Architektur 100
93000 Abstimmung mit Betrieb 0
99999 TPL Meetings 0
KID 0 149 99 99 99 1,00 - 66% 149 1,00 - 1,00
Restarbeit KID K & HH ca. 5+25 PTs (April/Mai)
KID bis Ende Juli geleistet: 99 PT, s.o.
KID Rest (HH, K, Trouble Shooting): 50 PT
49. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
49 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Agenda
1
2
3
4
Earned Value Einführung, Definition, Nutzen
Vergleich verschiedener “Forecast”-Methoden
Terminologie und Fragestellungen
Berechnungsbeispiel zu Earned Value
5 Beispielbericht SOKO Juli 205
Hints & Tips
Anhang
6
7
50. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
50 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Earned Value Strategies (zur Bestimmung von BCWP)
0-100%
100% of “work to be performed” is reported as earned at completion of the task.
50-50%
50% of “work to be performed” is reported as earned at initiation of task, 50% at
completion of task.
% Complete
A cumulative percentage of the total work planned - which is currently completed
- is reported as earned.
Summary Level %
A declared % of work is allocated for summary activities, and the designated %
of work performed is earned at the completion of the activities.
Remaining Effort
The actual effort expended to date as a percentage of actual and anticipate work
to be expended.
Milestone Gewichtung
Laufende Aufwände (PL, Architektur, etc.)
gleichmäßig ansetzen
CPI unterstützt „Design to Cost“ Ansatz
Kommunikation der CPI Werte auf Teilprojekt-, nicht auf Taskbasis Teaming wird
unterstützt
51. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
51 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Exkurs: 50-50 Regel (Theorie)
Theorie
• Der Fehler bei einer gerade erst begonnen Aktivität (überbewertet) wird durch eine
kurz vor Abschluß stehende Aktivität (unterbewertet) wieder aufgehoben oder ist
vernachlässigbar.
• Aufgrund der WBS-Detaillierung < 4 Wochen, tritt der Fehler im Folgemonat nicht mehr
auf; neu Aktivitäten kommen jedoch hinzu.
• Mit zunehmender Projektdauer geht er systematische Fehler gegen Null, da der im
Berichtszeitraum liegende Aufwand überproportional kleiner ist als der bereits
geleistete Aufwand in den Vorperioden (BCWP Vorperioden >> BCWP
Berichtsperiode)
• Mit Hilfe der 50/50 Regel wird der obligatorische Schätzaufwand für die geleistete
Arbeit vermieden.
• Die subjektive Schätzung „wie viel einer Arbeit bereits geleistet wurde“, wird reduziert
auf das objektive Eintreten von Ereignissen der Art:
– Liegt der Planstart vor dem Berichtszeitpunkt 0% oder 50%
– Liegt das Planende vor dem Berichtszeitpunkt 0% oder 50%
– Liegt der Iststart vor dem Berichtszeitpunkt 0% oder 50%
– Liegt das Istende vor dem Berichtszeitpunkt 0% oder 50%
52. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
52 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
EVA Regeln
Plane Deine Arbeit bevor Du beginnst;
Messe Deine Performance mit objektiven, technischen
Kriterien; z.B. #Srv Abbauten, # umgezogene DBs
Analysiere Deinen Status und deine Vorhersagen anhand
eines in Phasen/Aktivitäten aufgeteilten Projektplans
Analysiere Deine Ausgaben unter dem Aspekt Deiner
geleisteten Arbeit (nicht der geplanten Arbeit);
Schätze das Fertigstellungsdatum und die Gesamtkosten;
Korrigiere Deine Pläne, wenn notwendig;
Kontrolliere diszipliniert Deine Basis für die Performance
Messung.
53. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
53 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Pitfalls & Special Considerations
1. Collection of Actuals (Effort Expended and % Complete)
isn’t easy.
2. Calculation of BCWP (% Complete) must be discrete.
3. Changes in scope require “Re-Baselining” BAC.
4. Remaining Effort should not be used to calculate %
Complete.
5. Works Councils may prevent the implementation Time
Reporting System.
6. Compute Earned Value with Effort, NOT Cost.
54. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
54 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Link im iRAM zum EV Template und „Cookbook“:
https://w3.tap.ibm.com/com.ibm.ram/assetDetail/generalDetails.faces?guid={244C220E-AA51-D04
Bitte Bewertung nicht vergessen... (-:
55. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
55 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Agenda
1
2
3
4
Earned Value Einführung, Definition, Nutzen
Vergleich verschiedener “Forecast”-Methoden
Terminologie und Fragestellungen
Berechnungsbeispiel zu Earned Value
5 Beispielbericht SOKO Juli 205
Hints & Tips
Anhang
6
7
56. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
56 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
Earned Value Analysis:
Entstehung der Methode
1959 PERT and PERT/Cost
— Milestone Charts And Rate-of Expenditure Curves
— Dollars Spent Vs Estimates Of Percent
Complete (DD 1097)
1963 Earned Value Concept (MINUTEMAN)
1964 Cost Accomplishment Concept (TITAN III)
1966 AF—Cost/schedule Planning And Control
Specification (C/SPCS)
1967 DOD—Cost/Schedule Control Systems
Criteria (C/SCSC) (DODI 7000.2)
1972 DOD—-Revised DODI 7000.2 and Issued the
Joint Implementation Guide (JIG)
1972 NASA Marshall Space Flight Center—C/SPC
1975 DOE—Performance Measurement System
(PMS)
1976 DOD—Revised the C/SCSC JIG
1980 DOD—Revised the C/SCSC JIG
1982 National Security Agency—Earned Value
1983 NASA—Goddard Space Flight Center—PMS
1984 FAA & NASA Lewis Research Center—PMS
1985 NASA Johnson Space Flight Center—PMS
1987 DOD—Revised DOD C/SCSC JIG
1988 NASA Marshall SFC—Revised PMS
(MMI 8020.7C, 44 Criteria)
1989 Australian DOD—DODI 7000.2
1990 Canadian DOD—PMS
1991 DODI 5000.2 replaces DODI 7000.2
1992 National Oceanic And Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA)—PMS
1993 Swedish FMV—C/SCSC
1994 Internal Revenue Service (IRS)—C/SCSC
1994 Federal Bureau Of Investigation (FBI)
—C/SCSC
1996 DODR 5000.2-R replaces DODI 5000.2
C/SCSC revised from 35 to 32 criteria
1996 Revised JIG—Renamed Earned Value
Management Implementation Guide (EVMIG)
1997 EVMIG Revised
1998 MIL-STD 881B replaced by MIL HDBK 881
57. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
57 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
EVA Daten Elemente
T/N
Cost Variance Schedule Variance
Projected
Program
Delay
VAC
EAC
BAC
ACWP
BCWP
BCWS
ETC
Schedule Slip
58. IBM Global Services (ITS)
© 2004 IBM Corporation
58 Earned Value analysis 10/30/15
EVA Informationen (ungeprüft)
Bücher
Earned Value
Quentin W. Fleming & Joel M. Koppleman
Cost/Schedule Control Systems Criteria
Quentin W. Fleming
Project Performance Measurement
Robert R. Kemps
Visualizing Project Management
Kevin Forsberg, Ph.D., Hal Mooz and Howard
Cotterman
Software
Artemis Views
Artemis Management Systems
Contact: Patrick Perugini (303) 581-3102
Web: http://www.artemispm.com
Cobra
Welcom Software
Contact: Diana Melton (281) 558-0514
Web: http://www.wst.com
Software [Fortsetzung]
Dekker TRAKKER
Dekker Ltd.
Contact: Ron Barry (909) 384-9000
Web: http://www.dtrakker.com
MicroFrame Project Manager (MPM)
MicroFrame Technologies, Inc.
Contact: Carl Amacker (415) 616-4000
Web: http://www.microframe.com
Internet
Project Management Institute
http://www.pmi.org
US DoD Earned Value
http://www.acq.osd.mil/pm
Earned Value Bibliography
http://www.uwf.edu/~dchriste/ev-bib.html
Amazon.com
http://www.amazon.com
Notes de l'éditeur To replace the title / subtitle with your own:
Click on the title block -&gt; select all the text by pressing Ctrl+A -&gt; press Delete key -&gt; type your own text
&lt;number&gt;
&lt;number&gt;
&lt;number&gt;
&lt;number&gt;
&lt;number&gt;
This is not all inclusive, just a sample of EV major terms
&lt;number&gt;
&lt;number&gt;
&lt;number&gt;
&lt;number&gt;
&lt;number&gt;
&lt;number&gt;
&lt;number&gt;
&lt;number&gt;
&lt;number&gt;
&lt;number&gt;
&lt;number&gt;