For the most time of human history, life was local and linear. Local in the way that anything that happened was close by, a least within a walking distance. Linear in the way that your life was the same as your father and your childs. Nothing changed.
Just like the evolution of man, technology improvements follow an evolutionary progress. New ideas or products are to begin with immature and fragile with slow improvements. Then the progress accelerates until the products become mature and taken for granted. Then the cycle repeats and a new layer of technology is added to the previous. This process is exponential. One such observation of exponential is Moore’s Law.
Any new technology that gets wide acceptance in society needs to be adopted by people. We will explore that type of people are the first to adopt new things, and what types come later.
17. Technology Life Cycle
The technology life-cycle
(TLC) describes the
commercial gain of a
product through the
expense of research and
development phase, and
the financial return
during its "vital life".
18. Technology Life Cycle
In the early days
In the later days
!
!
The innovators and technology
enthusiasts drive the market
They demand technology
Small percentage of the market
The pragmatists and conservatives
dominate; they want solutions and
convenience
The big market
29. 30 years of product improvements
1977
Apple II $1,298
4000 bytes memory
Motorola 6502 1MHz
2007
iMac 17-inch $1,199
1GB memory
Intel 2.0GHz
30. 30 years of product improvements
iPad
2
as
fast
as
Cray
2
supercomputer,
fraction
of
the
size
Cray 2 1985
Apple iPad 2 2011
Read
more:
http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4
45. The Long Nose of Innovation
Bill Buxton’s
Long nose of
Innovation
Source:
http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/
id2008012_297369.htm
47. Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us (from TED.com)
48. The Law of
Accelerating Returns
Evolution applies positive feedback in that
the more capable methods resulting from
one stage of evolutionary progress are
used to create the next stage.
As a result, the rate of progress of an
evolutionary process increases
exponentially over time.
49. “An analysis of the history of technology
shows that technological change is
exponential, contrary to the commonsense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won't
experience 100 years of progress in the
21st century -- it will be more like 20,000
years of progress
(at today's rate).”
- Ray Kurzweil