At any given time, with all the knowledge we have, new knowledge can emerge. We call this the adjacent possible. It explains why new inventions are invented when they are, and why they are not possible before. Adjacent possible is a very useful term to understand the progress of technology. Technology evolves by using prevailing technologies to improve upon. Thus technology is combinatorial and built in layers. With each layer new ideas can be built upon the previous layers. Thus Gall's Law says that any complex system that works is built of simpler systems that work. We will look at the adjacent possible and some ideas that came when all the enabling technologies are available. We also look at an idea that was not possible to build at the time, Charles Babbage engines.

1. LECTURE L04
ADJACENT POSSIBLE

2. The S-curve
Based on the notion of the Technical Life Cycle
Improvements in
performance varies
throughout the life
of the technology

3. Number of transistors on
an integrated circuit will double
in about 18-24 months
Moore’s Law

4. The Law of Accelerating Returns
Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more
capable methods resulting from one stage of
evolutionary progress are used to create the next
stage.
As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary
process increases exponentially over time.

5. Exponential World
Local and linear
Global and Exponential

6. February 14th 1876

7. Alexander G. Bell
filed a patent
application at the US
Patent Office, on the
harmonic telegraph,
including its use for
transmitting vocal
sounds

8. On the same day
another inventor,
Elisha Gray, filed a
patent caveat for
improving the
telegraph

9. The Bell vs. Gray Controversy

10. Ideas usually come at similar time
Who invented the telephone?

11. When All the Enabling Technologies are Ready
Why was the telephone invented in 1876, but
not 1826 or 1926?
With electricity, wires, batteries and with the
workmanship and tools and with the knowledge of
these, at the time, it was possible in 1876 to create
a working telephone

12. Adjacent Possible

13. Adjacent Possible
Inventions have their time in history
due to the possibilities of the
environment at any given time.
Inventions tend to happen within the
boundaries of the adjacent possible,
or the realm of possibilities available
at any given momentSteven Johnson

14. Adjacent Possible
Inventions tend to happen within the
boundaries of the adjacent possible,
or the realm of possibilities available
at any given moment
Steven Johnson

15. Adjacent Possible
...a kind of shadow future, hovering on
the edges of the present state of
things, a map of all the ways in which
the present can reinvent itself
Steven Johnson

17. Ideas usually come at similar time
Electricity, wires, telegraph, batteries, …

18. Enabling Technology
Existing technology that can be used
to build new technologies

19. Why was the computer
invented in the 1940s
and not in the 1840s?
Think about this!

20. Charles Babbage
Sometimes called Inventor
of the Computer
Wanted to remove the
inevitable human errors
from computing

21. Believed that machines
could replace laborious and
error-prone calculations -
“calculate by steam”
Charles Babbage

23. Machine to compute polynomials
Got grants but efforts were slow
Lack of workmanship of the time
delayed the project
Worked stopped 1833
Difference Engine

25. Analytical engine
Babbage started on a new machine in 1834
Programmable machine – with
primitive programming language
Input was in punched cards
Run by steam

26. Augusta Ada Byron
Countess of Lovelace
Mathematician and
scientist
Worked with Babbage on
his Analytical Engine
The first programmer

28. Notes by the Translator
Ada worte notes on the Analytical machine
1. General purpose machine - mill to
calculate, store to keep data, and formulas
2. Machine was not limited to math - could
by any symbol - words, logic, music
3. Step by step instructions - programs,
subroutines

29. Adjacent Possible
When all the enabling
technologies are ready, new
inventions will be emerge

30. Adjacent Possible
The inventor must use the
components that exist in his
environment
Steven Johnson

31. Image source: http://www.computersciencelab.com/ComputerHistory/HistoryPt4.htm
Vacuum tubes were used
to build computers

32. Toaster

33. Thomas Thwaits: The Toaster Project

34. Source: TED.com

35. "Left to his own devices he couldn’t build a toaster.
He could just about make a sandwich
and that was it."
— Mostly Harmless, Douglas Adams, 1992

38. “And that was something that reoccurred
throughout the project, was, the smaller the scale
you want to work on, the further back in time you
have to go”
— Thomas Thwaites

39. Layers of Technology

40. Prevailing Technology
The dominant
technology at any
given time
New inventions will
improve
Source: www.pianoworld.com/gallery/piano_pictures2.htm

41. Ideas build upon Ideas
Every generation of
technology
becomes a source for
new innovations

42. Combinatory Process
New technology is created
by combining other existing
technology in new ways

43. Layers of Technology
Technologies evolves layer by layer,
from simple to complex
technologies

44. Web of Technology
Products are made using different parts
using many technologies - confection of
ideas

45. Gall’s Law
All complex systems that work, evolved from
simpler system that worked

46. “I, Pencil” by Leonard E. Read

47. The most important single central
fact about a free market is that no
exchange takes place unless both
parties benefit.
— Milton Friedman

49. The Law of Disappearing Technology
When some technique is mastered,
it will “disappear” as something
obvious and trivial, and other more
useful things that are built on top of it

50. That means when technology
disappears
it becomes useful
The Law of Disappearing Technology

51. Electricity
The Law of Disappearing Technology

52. Internet
The Law of Disappearing Technology

53. The Resistance Corollary
Even outdated things that
should “disappear” don’t
due to supposed importance

54. Phone books
Checks
Fax machines
Keys
Plastic cards
Landline phones
Printed
newspapers
Lottery terminals

55. The Prevailing Technology Trap

58. The Prevailing Technology Trap
Current and dominant technology
will highly influence and restrict
new innovations

59. Current and dominant technology will
highly influence new innovation, and can
even restrict them
Innovators are so influenced by the
current technologies that they will try to
work according to them, including their
limitations.
The Prevailing Technology Trap

60. Technology Cramming

61. Technology Cramming

63. Two Waves of Products Development
In the first wave the product is
restricted by the prevailing
technology, but in the second,
there is something new

64. Two Waves of Products Development
Web 1.0 Web 2.0

65. Two Waves of Products Development
One2Many Many2Many

66. Timeline
Each wave creates number of
new inventions

67. Timeline
When the time is right,
new ideas will emerge

68. Next
L05 How Innovation Happens