New Technology 2012 Lecture 03 - Technology Innovation

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Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Technologie

Lecture 03
Technology Innovations
“I have not failed. I've just found 10,000
ways that won't work.”
– Thomas Edison

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Technology

Process by which an organization
transforms labor, capital, material,
and information into products and
services of greater values
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Product Performance

The value you get out of a
product for which you have paid
some cost
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Innovation
The change in the technology

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How does innovation happen?

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The Brilliant Scientist working in his lab

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Nikola Tesla

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Tesla
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Tomas Edison
Menlo Park
1876-1881

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How does innovation really happen?

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"We take the ideas we've
inherited or stumbled
across, and we jigger them
together into some new
shape."
– Steven Johnson

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Where good ideas come from
by Steven Johnson

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Chance favors the connected mind

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Ideas build upon Ideas
Every generation of technology
becomes a source for new
innovations

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Web of Technology
Products are made using
different parts using many
technologies

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Complexity of Technology

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Toaster

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Thomas Thwaits: The Toaster Project

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Think about this
Why was the computer
invented in the 1940s
and not in the 1840s?

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Charles Babbage
worked on his
difference engine
and later
analytical engine
In 1822-1871

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Ideas usually come at similar
time

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Adjacent Possible
...a kind of shadow future,
hovering on the edges of
the present state of things,
a map of all the ways in
which the present can
reinvent itself.
Steven Johnson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

The Second Industrial Revolution
The period 1870-1914
Innovations in the chemical, electric, petroleum and
steel industries

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Vacuum tubes where used
to build computers

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Image source: http://www.computersciencelab.com/ComputerHistory/HistoryPt4.htm

Adjacent Possible
The inventor must use the
components that exist in
his environment

Steven Johnson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

The Long Nose
of Innovation

Bill Buxton’s
Long nose of
Innovation

Source:
http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.htm
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Douglas Englebart 1965 Apple Macintosh 1984

Source: http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/187881/Douglas-Engelbart

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Any technology that is going to have significant
impact over the next 10 years is already at least
10 years old

Source:
http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.htm
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

The 10/10 Rule
10 years to build a new
platform, 10 years for it
to be adopted

Steven Johnson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

The Medici Effect

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The Coffee House

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

The Liquid network
A good idea is a network.
Innovations happens with
collaboration

Steven Johnson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

The importance of cities

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

The Liquid network
Innovations happen when
ideas are shared

Steven Johnson
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Sir Isaac Newton

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

The Slow Hunch
A lot of ideas linger on,
sometimes for decades,
in the back of people’s
minds

Steven Johnson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

What do the following products have in
common?

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Post-it notes Viagra
LSD

Teflon

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Penicillin

Serendipity
The accident of finding
something useful or good
without looking for it

Steven Johnson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

"In the fields of observation
chance favors only the
prepared mind”
- Louis Pasteur

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Adjacent possible
Liquid network

The Slow Hunch
10/10 Rule
Serendipity
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

NEXT
Evolution of Technology

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

THINK ABOUT THIS
What will be the major
technology innovation in

2012
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

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Fyrirlestur fyrir Félag tölvunarfræðinga og Verkfræðingafélagið þann 18.05.2022 Nýsköpun er forsenda tækniframfara sem eru forsendur framþróunar. Nýsköpun byrjar yfirleitt smátt og þarf margar ítranir til að virka. Frumkvöðlar sem eru að búa til nýjungar þurfa ekki einungis að glíma við tæknina og takmarkanir hennar, heldur einnig skoðanir og álit samtímamanna sem sjá ekki alltaf tilgang með nýrri tækni. Í þessum fyrirlestri skoðar Ólafur Andri nýsköpun og þær framfarir sem hafa orðið. Einnig skoðar hann hvert tækniframfarir nútímans muni leiða okkur á komandi árum. Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson er aðjúnkt við Háskólann í Reykjavík og kennir þar námskeið um tækniþróun og hvernig tæknibreytingar hafa áhrif á fyrirtæki. Hann er tölvunarfræðingur (Msc) að mennt frá Oregon University í Bandaríkjanum. Ólafur Andri er frumkvöðull og stofnaði, ásamt fleirum, Margmiðlun og síðar Betware. Þá tók Ólafur Andri þátt í að stofna leikjafyrirtækið Raw Fury AB í Stokkhólmi.

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Fyrirlestur haldinn fyrir tæknifaghóp Stjórnvísi þann 13. október 2020. Undanfarna áratugi höfum við séð gríðalegar framfarir í tækni og nýsköpun á heimsvísu. Þessar framfarir hafa skapað mannkyninu öllu aukna hagsæld. Þrátt fyrir veirufaraldur á heimsvísu eru framfarir ekkert að minnka heldur munu bara aukast næstu árum. Gervgreind, róbotar, sýndarveruleiki, hlutanetið og margt fleira er að búa til nýjar lausnir og ný tækifæri. Framtíðin er í senn sveipuð dulúð og getur verið spennandi og ógnvekjandi í senn. Eina sem við vitum fyrir vissu er að framtíðin verður alltaf betri. Í þessu fyrirlestri ætlar Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson kennari við HR að fjalla um nýjustu tækni og framtíðina.

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New Technology Summer 2020 Course Introduction

Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Technology is one of the factors of change. When new disruptive technology is introduced, it can change industries. We have many examples of that and will start this journey it one of the most important innovation that has come in our lifetimes, the smartphone. We will explore the impact of the smartphone and the fate of existing companies at the time when iPhone, the first smartphone as we know them, was introduced to the world. We will also look at other examples from history. Then we look at the broader picture, past industrial revolutions and the one that we are experiencing now, the fourth industrial revolution. Specifically we look briefly at the technologies that fuel this revolution, for example artificial intelligence, robotics, drones, internet of things and more.

L01 Introduction

Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Manlike machines have fascinated humans since ancient times. The modern robots start to take shape with the industrial revolution. In the 20th century robots were mostly industrial machines you would see in factories, like car factories. Today, robots can have sensors, vision, they can hear and understand. They can connect to the cloud for more information. However, we are still in the early stages of robotics and robots will need to go a long way to become useful as a ubiquitous general purpose devices.

L23 Robotics and Drones

Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

The normal interaction with computers is with keyboard and a mouse. For display a rectangular somewhat small screen is used with 2D windowing systems. The mouse was invented more the 40 years ago and has been for 20 years dominant input. Now we are seeing new types of input devices. Multi-touch adds new dimensions and new applications. Natural user interfaces or gesture interfaces where people point to drag objects. Computers are also beginning to recognize facial expressions of people, so it knows if you are smiling. Voice and natural language understanding is getting to a usable stage. All this calls all types of new applications. Displays are getting bigger. What if any surface was a screen? If you could spray the wall with screen? Or have you phone project images to the wall. This lectures explores some of these new types of interactions with computers and software. It makes the old mouse look old.

L22 Augmented and Virtual Reality

Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Local is the Lo in SoLoMo, the buzz word. Local is not only about location, it's also about your digital track record. Over 70% of Netflix users watch the films recommend. Mining data to understand people's behaviour is getting to be a huge and valuable business. Advertisers see opportunities in getting direct to their target groups. Predictive intelligence is also about where you will be at some time in the future, and where somebody you know will be. It turns out that Facebook and Google know you better than you think you know yourself. The world is about to get really scary.

L20 Personalised World

Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Over two billion people signed up for Facebook. This site the most used site for people when using the Internet. People are not watching TV so much anymore - they using Facebook, Youtube and Netflix and number of popular web sites. Some people denote their time working for others online. What drives people to write an article on Wikipedia? They don´t get paid. Companies are enlisting people to help with innovations and sites such as Galaxy Zoo ask people to help identifying images. And why do people have to film themselves singing when they cannot sing and post the video on Youtube? In this lecture we talk about how people are using the web to interact in new ways, and doing stuff.

L19 Network Platforms

Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

With the computer revolution vast amount of digital data has become available. With the Internet and smart connected product, the data is growing exponentially. It is estimated that every year, more data is generated than all history prior. And this has repeated over several years. With all this data, it becomes a platform for something new of its own. In this lecture, we look at what big data is and look at several examples of how to use data. There are many well-know algorithms to analyse data, like clustering and machine learning.

L18 Big Data and Analytics

Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

After the computing industry got started, a new problem quickly emerged. How do you operate this machines and how to you program them. The development of operating systems was relatively slow compared to the advances in hardware. First system were primitive but slowly got better as demand for computing power increased. The ideas of the Graphical User Interfaces or GUI (Gooey) go back to Doug Engelbarts Demo of the Century. However, this did not have much impact on the computer industry. One company though, Xerox, a photocopy company explored these ideas with Palo Alto Park. Steve Jobs of Apple and Bill Gates of Microsoft took notice and Apple introduced first Apple Lisa and the Macintosh. In this lecture on we look so lessons for the development of software, and see how our business theories apply. In this lecture on we look so lessons for the development of algorithms or software, and see how our business theories apply. In the second part we look at where software is going, namely Artificial Intelligence. Resent developments in AI are causing an AI boom and new AI application are coming all the time. We look at machine learning and deep learning to get an understanding of the current trends.

L17 Algorithms and AI

Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

We are currently living in times of great transformation. We have over the last couple of decade seen the Internet become the most powerful disrupting force in the world, connecting everyone and transforming businesses. Now everyday objects - things we use are getting smart with sensors and software. And they are connecting. What does this mean? We will see the world become alive. Cars will talk to road sensors that talk to systems that guide traffic. Plants will talk to weather systems that talk to scientists that research climate change. Farming fields will talk to the farming system that talks to robots that do fertilising and harvesting. Home appliances like refrigerators, ovens, coffee machines and microwaves ovens will talk to the home food and cooking system that will inform the store that you are running out butter, cheese, laundry detergent and coffee beans, which will inform the robot driver to get this to your house after consulting your calendar upon when someone is at home. In this lecture we explore the Internet of Things, IoT.

L16 Internet of Things

Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

The Internet grew out of US efforts to build the ARPANET, a network of peer computers built during the cold war. The two major players were military and academia. The network was simple and required no efforts for security or social responsibility. The early Internet community was mainly highly educated and respectable scientist. In the early 1990s the World Wide Web, a hypertext system is introduced, and soon browsers start to appear, leading the commercialization of Net. New businesses emerge and a technology boom known as the dot-com era. The network, now over 40, is being stretched. Problems such as spam, viruses, antisocial behaviour, and demands for more content are prompting reinvention of the Net and threatening its neutrality. Add to this government efforts to regulate and limit the network. In this lecture we look at the Internet and the impact of the network. We will also look at the future of the Internet. The Internet grew out of US efforts to build the ARPANET, a network of peer computers built during the cold war. The two major players were military and academia. The network was simple and required no efforts for security or social responsibility. The early Internet community was mainly highly educated and respectable scientist. In the early 1990s the World Wide Web, a hypertext system is introduced, and soon browsers start to appear, leading the commercialisation of Net. New businesses emerge and a technology boom known as the dot-com era. The network, now over 40, is being stretched. Problems such as spam, viruses, antisocial behaviour, and demands for more content are prompting reinvention of the Net and threatening its neutrality. Add to this government efforts to regulate and limit the network. In this lecture we look at the Internet and the impact of the network. We will also look at the future of the Internet.

L14 From the Internet to Blockchain

Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

The ideas for cellular phones were developed in the 1940s. However, it was not until the microprocessor becomes available that practical commercial solutions are possible. Today there are more than 5 billion unique mobile phone subscriptions in the world and of them about 2.5 billion are smartphones. This device is so powerful that people check it over 40 times a day. In this lecture we look mobile. We also look at the history of communication since the telegraph and how the mobile market developed in the 80s and 90s until the iPhone was released in 2007. That same year Western Union stopped sending telegraph messages.

L14 The Mobile Revolution

Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Did you know that the term "Computer" once meant a profession? And what did people or computers actually do? They computed mathematical problems. Some problems were tedious and error prone. And it is not surprising that people started to develop machines to aid in the effort. The first mechanical computers were actually created to get rid of errors in human computation. Then came tabulating machines and cash registers. It was not until telephone companies were well established that computing machines became practical. First computers were huge mainframes, but soon minicomputers like DEC’s PDP started to appear. The transistor was introduced in 1947, but its usefulness was not truly realized until in 1958 when the integrated circuit was invented. This led to the invention of the microprocessor. Intel, in 1971, marketed the 4004 – and the personal computer revolution started. One of the first Personal Computers was MITS’ Altair. This was a simple device and soon others saw the opportunities. In this lecture we start our coverage of computing and look at some of the early machines and the impact they had.

New Technology 2019 L13 Rise of the Machine

Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Software is changing the way traditional business operate. People now have smartphones in their pockets - a supercomputer that is 25,000 times more powerful and the minicomputers of the 1960s. This is changing people's behaviour and how people shop and use services. The organisational structure created in the 20th century cannot survive when new digital solution are being offered. Software is changing the way traditional business operate. People now have smartphones in their pockets - a supercomputer that is 25,000 times more powerful and the minicomputers of the 1960s. This is changing people's behaviour and how people shop and use services. The organisational structure created in the 20th century cannot survive when new digital solution are being offered. The hierarchical structure of these established companies assumes high coordination cost due to human activity. But when the coordination cost drops The organisational structure that companies in the 20th century established was based on the fact that employees needed to do all the work. The coordination cost was high due to the effort and cost of employees, housing etc. Now we have software that can do this for use and the coordination cost drops to close-to-zero. Another thing is that things become free. Consider Flickr. Anybody can sign up and use the service for free. Only a fraction of the users get pro account and pay. How can Flickr make money on that? It turns out that services like this can. Many businesses make money by giving things away. How can that possibly work? The music business has suffered severely with digital distribution of content. Should musicians put all their songs on YouTube? What is the future business model for music?

L12 digital transformation

Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

One of the great irony of successful companies is how easily they can fail. New companies are founded to take advantage of some new technology. They become highly successful and but when the technology shifts, something new comes along, they are unable to adapt and fail. This is the innovator’s dilemma. Then there are companies that manage to survive. For example, Kodak survived two platform shift, only til fail the third. IBM has survived over 100 years. What do successful companies do differently?

L10 The Innovator's Dilemma

Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

History has many examples of great innovators who had difficult time convincing their contemporaries of new technology. Even incumbent and powerful companies regarded new technologies as inferior and dismissed it as "toys". Then when disruptive technologies take off they often are overhyped and can cause bubbles like the Internet bubble of the late 1990s. In this lecture we look at some examples of disruptive technologies and the impact they had. We look at the The Disruptive Innovation Theory by Harvard Professor Clayton Christensen.

L09 Disruptive Technology

Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Technology evolves in big waves that we call revolutions. The first revolution was the Industrial revolution that started in Britain in 1771. Since than we have see more revolutions come and how we are in the fifth. These revolutions follow a similar path. First there is an installation period where the new technologies are installed and deployed, creating wealth to those who were are the right place at the right time. This is followed by a frenzy, where financial markets wants to be apart. The there is crash and turning point, followed by synergy, a golden age. In 1908, a new technological revolution started. It was the Age of Oil and Automobile. The technology trigger was Henry Ford´s new assembly line technique that allowed the manufacturing of standardized, low cost automobile. This created the car industry and other manufacturing companies. This also created demand for gas thus creating the oil industry. During the Roaring Twenties the stock prices rose to new levels, until a crash and the Great Depression. Only after World War II, came a turnaround point followed by a golden age in the post-war boom. In this lecture we look at a framework for understanding technological revolutions. There revolutions completely change societies and replace the old with new technologies. We will explore how these revolutions take place. We should now be in the golden age phase. We also look at generations.

L09 Technological Revolutions

Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

In the early days of product development, the technology is inferior and lacking in performance. The focus is very much on the technology itself. The users are enthusiast who like the idea of the product, find use for it, and except the lack of performance. Then as the product becomes more mature, other factors become important, such as price, design, features, portability. The product moves from being a technology to become a consumer item, and even a community. In this lecture we explore the change from technology focus to consumer focus, and look at why people stand in line overnight to buy the latest gadgets.

L07 Becoming Invisible

Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

L06 Diffusion of Innovation

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New Technology Summer 2020 Course Introduction

L01 Introduction

L23 Robotics and Drones

L22 Augmented and Virtual Reality

L20 Personalised World

L19 Network Platforms

L18 Big Data and Analytics

L17 Algorithms and AI

L16 Internet of Things

L14 From the Internet to Blockchain

L14 The Mobile Revolution

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L12 digital transformation

L10 The Innovator's Dilemma

L09 Disruptive Technology

L09 Technological Revolutions

L07 Becoming Invisible

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