New Technology 2019 L13 Rise of the Machine
•
1 j'aime•396 vues
Did you know that the term "Computer" once meant a profession? And what did people or computers actually do? They computed mathematical problems. Some problems were tedious and error prone. And it is not surprising that people started to develop machines to aid in the effort. The first mechanical computers were actually created to get rid of errors in human computation. Then came tabulating machines and cash registers. It was not until telephone companies were well established that computing machines became practical. First computers were huge mainframes, but soon minicomputers like DEC’s PDP started to appear. The transistor was introduced in 1947, but its usefulness was not truly realized until in 1958 when the integrated circuit was invented. This led to the invention of the microprocessor. Intel, in 1971, marketed the 4004 – and the personal computer revolution started. One of the first Personal Computers was MITS’ Altair. This was a simple device and soon others saw the opportunities. In this lecture we start our coverage of computing and look at some of the early machines and the impact they had.
Recommandé
Contenu connexe
Tendances
Tendances (19)
Similaire à New Technology 2019 L13 Rise of the Machine
Similaire à New Technology 2019 L13 Rise of the Machine (20)
Plus de Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Plus de Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson (20)
Dernier
Dernier (20)
New Technology 2019 L13 Rise of the Machine
- 1. LECTURE L13 RISE OF THE MACHINE
- 2. Keep this in Mind Adjacent possible The S-curve The Law of Diffusion of Innovation Arrogance of the Present The Disruption of Innovation Theory The Resources, Processes and Values Theory The Liquid Network
- 3. History of Computers History can help us explain many things We can use our laws and theories to explain events Computers are relatively recent and their development is fairly fast
- 4. “I can assure you on the highest authority that the data processing is a fad and won’t last out the year.” Editor-in-charge of business books, Prentice-Hall 1957
- 5. Think About This! Why are flight tickets and boarding passes in this format?
- 6. Think About This! Why are flight tickets and boarding passes in this format?
- 11. History Computing is time consuming and error prone Demands for computation were increasing with more organised societies Industrial revolution and the Napoleonic reforms Impetus came from Government: Taxing and Defence
- 12. Efforts to speed calculations started early Use of logarithmic tables and trigonometry to speed calculations The Counting Business
- 13. The Slide Rule by William Oughtred in 1625 Built using logarithms, multiplication of two numbers could be done easier a*b = 10^(log(a)+log(b)) Much quicker than manual calculation The Counting Business
- 14. Early Machines Wilhelm Schickard (1592 -1635) German professor of Hebrew and Astronomy University of Tüblingen, Germany Built a calculating machine in 1620s Documented in letters to Johannes Kepler 1623 and 24
- 15. Early Machines Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) French mathematician, physicist, and religious philosopher Built an adding machine in1642-44 Tried to commercialize the machine but labor was too cheap
- 16. Early Machines Wilhelm von Leibniz (1646-1716) German mathematician and philosopher Built a machine, the Leibniz Wheel that could multiply and divide
- 17. History Workmanship for building complex machines lacked In late eighteenth century demand for calculation was growing Calculations were done by hand Tedious, slow and error-prone and tables of logarithms were riddled with errors
- 20. The idea of calculating with steam was to many impossible - machines could never take over this human activity Yet it did. Can you think of a task done today that will be taken over by machine in the future? Lecture Exercise L13 - E
- 21. Inventor of the Computer Wanted to remove the inevitable human errors from computing Believed that machines could replace laborious and error-prone calculations Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871)
- 22. A Programmable Machine - General purpose computer Contained mill to calculate, store to keep data, and formulas The first programmer Augusta Ada King (1815-1852) Countess of Lovelace
- 24. The Cash Register One of the first calculating machines developed by James Ritty in 1879 in response to thefts by staff “The Incorruptible Cashier” National Cash Register Company – NCR Tomas Watson, Sr. was salesman Watson would later leave for Computing-Tabulating-Recording
- 26. Tabulating Machines In the US need for data processing was growing One application was census taking US population grew from 17 million in 1840 to 50 million in 1880 It took 1.495 clerks 7 years to produce the 1880 census
- 27. Source: Tabulating machine Herman Hollerith Tabulating Machine Company – TMC US Census Bureau awarded Herman Hollerith a contract to produce the 1890 census Tabulating Machines with punched cards Successfully finished in 2,5 years with one-third less cost (claimed) Tabulating Machines
- 28. Think About This! Why are flight tickets and boarding passes in this format?
- 29. Think About This! Why are flight tickets and boarding passes in this format?
- 30. Source: Tabulating machine Herman Hollerith Used punched cards Hollerith cards were in use until 1960s Tabulating Machines
- 31. The Business of Data Processing Even with the growing need for data processing around 1900, the market for tabulating machines was limited CRT and TMC merged and would later change the name to International Business Machines – IBM Tabulating Machines
- 32. Lessons Learned: Early Computing Machines Early machines could not compete with manual labor The cost was not low enough to disrupt Workmanship was lacking Energy to power machines was not available Computing requirement were modest until 18 th century Babbage failed to build machines despite the resources Babbage (or rather Ada), had the idea of a modern computer
- 33. Lessons Learned: Early Computing Machines First practical calculating device was a Cash Register Designed due to another problem: theft Specialised problem instead of a generic one Tabulating machines appear with the electricity First buyers of tabulating machines were governments Centralised
- 35. Foundation of electric computing was laid early Mechanical computers were not considered practical Threat of war is looming in the 1930s Governments turn to computing for ballistic computations Code-breaking was important Electric Computing
- 36. Although electricity had entered the equation, it had done so only as an alternative method of powering mechanical equipment Source: Engines that Move Markets The Prevailing Technology Trap
- 38. Konrad Zuse (1910-1995) German Engineer Built primitive machines, Z1-Z4 based on relay switches in 1936 – 1944 Used binary system Designed his own language, Plankalkül Never received any official support from war-time Germany unlike the Allies P2 max (V0[:8.0],V1[:8.0]) => R0[:8.0] V0[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0] (Z1[:8.0] < V1[:8.0]) -> V1[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0] Z1[:8.0] => R0[:8.0] END Source: Konrad Zuse Early Work
- 41. Location of top-secret code-breaking team Code-breaking the German coding machine ENIGMA Bletchley Park
- 42. Source: Alan Turing, COLOSSUS, Enigma English mathematician, logician and cryptographer Headed team at Bletchley Park, worked on algorithms to break the ENIGMA code Bombe Computer based on heuristics, lead to COLOSSUS Publishes paper in 1936: On Computable Numbers Alan Turing
- 43. Source: COLOSSUS COLOSSUS Used by British code breakers to read encrypted German ENIGMA messages during World War II Winston Churchill specifically ordered the destruction of most of the Colossus machines into “pieces no bigger than a man's hand” War Machines
- 44. Source: EINIAC ENIAC — Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer Built by the U.S. Army for the purpose of calculating ballistic firing tables Used 18.000 vacuum tubes Designed by John Mauchly and J. Presper Eckert The machine was unveiled in 1946 and was in operation until 1955 War Machines
- 46. John von Neumann, Von Neumann architecture Hungarian mathematician Worked on the Manhattan project and became involved in Moore’s School ENIAC and EDVAC projects Publishes On computer design, 1945 Von Neumann architecture John von Neumann
- 47. Copyright © 2011 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Post-war computers Based on vacuum tubes
- 48. Commercial Computer 5,200 vacuum tubes, weighed 13 tons, consumed 125 kW, and could perform about 1,905 operations per second running on a 2.25 MHz clock Occupied more than 35.5 m² of floor space The addition time was 525 microseconds Source: Model of UNIVAC I, c. 1954. Picture from Smithsonian Institution UNIVAC I
- 49. United States presidential election of 1952 Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
- 51. Transistor Era
- 52. Device use to amplify or switch electronic signals Huge performance improvement Smaller Less energy More robust Faster Transistor
- 53. Copyright © 2011 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Computers became faster, larger and more powerful
- 55. Source: Tyranny of Numbers, Transistor Computer Computer Engineers have much more flexibility with transistors Problem was that as the number of components increased, wiring them together became a problem Tyranny of Numbers
- 57. Copyright © 2011 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Source: Integrated circuit Introduced in 1958 by two inventors Robert Noyce at Fairchild Semiconductor and Jack Kilby at Texas Instruments Transistors could be wired together in practical way Mass manufacturing of ICs The Invention of the Integrated Circuit
- 58. Two inventors at the same time invented the IC Because the time had come and all the enabling technologies were available Silicon Wally becomes the technology center of the world Adjacent possible
- 59. Competition Emerges The Computer Market is born The main application is data processing (business applications like payroll, inventory etc.) IBM enters the computer business Tomas Watson, Jr. launched IBM System/360 in 1964 Systematically replaced data processing machines with mainframe computers
- 60. In the 1950s Automation Starts
- 61. Automation – Computers begin to disrupt work Start to replace jobs Banks and insurance companies were early adopters Handling paycheques, payroll that used to require many clerks to compute Automation
- 62. Source: Desk Set (from IMDB) Hollywood took notice Desk Set from 1957 with Spencer Tracey and Katherine Hepburn Automation
- 64. Lessons Learned: Early Computing Machines Electricity was key to computers — switching technologies First electric computers were primitive, fragile and low performance Centralisation — First computers were in centers Expensive, large, run by experts – Priests
- 65. Lessons Learned: Early Computing Machines Giant “Brains” Association with human thought Automation – Disruption Companies need fewer clerks to compute Tedious jobs eliminated Big debate – computer executive had to defend the existence of their machines Abstractions few Programs were wired in
- 66. Computers in the 1970s
- 67. The Disruptive Innovation Theory The Resources, Processes, and Values Theory Think About This!
- 68. IBM 704 IBM System/360 Large computers in data centres Batch operations Critical applications Financial transaction processing Mainframes
- 69. Computers were expensive to purchase and maintain To make it efficient required multiple users Large data centres Utility Computing Time-sharing of expensive equipment Time-sharing
- 70. Cost of computers went down Computers became faster, smaller and cheaper In that changing environment, normal economics did not apply Moore’s Law
- 71. Cost for new entrants in the computer business was prohibitive in the 60s Market for those that did not need complete solution but could benefit from using computes Birth of the Minicomputers Minicomputers
- 72. The academic community embraced the opportunity of minicomputers Militaries were also early users of minicomputers Minicomputers
- 73. Founded in 1957 by Ken Olsen Launched PDP-1 in 1960 The PDP-8 was the first successful commercial minicomputer – 1965 Used integrated circuits Time-sharing allowed multiple users to use the machines at the same time Digital Equipment Corporation
- 74. Digital used relatively simple, convenient, low-cost innovation to create growth and disrupt IBM The Disruptive Innovation Theory
- 75. IBM Was a mainframe company, their customers wanted mainframes, not low-performance minicomputers The Resources, Processes, and Values Theory Although IBM/360 Model 20 was later consider to have the same characteristics as minicomputers
- 76. Clayton M. Christensen: The Innovator’s Dilemma Lessons: Mainframes to Mini computers IBM, industry’s first leader, sold mainframe computers to the central accounting and data processing departments of large organizations The emergence of the minicomputer represented disruptive technology to IBM and competitors Their customers had no use for it: it promised lower, not higher margins As a result the mainframe makers ignored it for years
- 77. Clayton M. Christensen: The Innovator’s Dilemma This allowed new entrants: DEC, Data General, Prime, Wang and Nixdorf – to create and dominate the minicomputer market IBM entered the minicomputer market when it was performance competitive to the needs of their customers The history repeated itself Lessons: Mainframes to Mini computers
- 80. May 25, 1961 Status: Mainframe era, minicomputer early days Transistor era, integrated circuits just invented Programming languages new
- 81. “The space program badly needed the things the integrated circuit could provide.” - Jack St. Clair Kilby
- 82. Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore founded Intel Semiconductor company Initial focus was on memory chips There was still enormous potential market for calculations The vision of Charles Babbage was still not realized but the mainframe market met the needs of governments and large organisations Semiconductor Industry is Born
- 83. Intel introduced the first microprocessor 4004 in 1971 8008 in 1972, 8080 in 1974 and 8088 in 1979 The beginning of the PC The Microprocessor
- 84. Intel was really reluctant to go into the microchip business No market existed No demand at the time Intel created 4004 for another company They would not market chips, but built them when ordered The company cancelled the order and Intel was forced to offer them for sale The Microprocessor
- 85. The Calculator
- 86. Advances in technology introduced the desktop calculator The market grew fast With advances, the calculators became more powerful and smaller Pocket calculators Became widespread in the 70s Replaced the slide rule after 374 years The Calculator
- 87. Many companies start to make Calculators Casio, Sharp, Canon, HP, MITS and more In Europe, Aristo, Denner & Pape, a slide rule manufacturer since 1872, also entered the market in 1972 Price dropped fast: $400 in 1972, $200, $100 and $50 in 1974 Companies like MITS need to find new ways of revenues Calculator Wars
- 88. Think about this! All minicomputer companies had the opportunity to use microchips and build scale products – they even had people proposing the idea, but they did not! Left the field open… Think About This!
- 90. MITS marketed Altair in 1975 Came with Intel 8080 Users needed to assemble the machine themselves No keyboard, no screen, no printer 256 byte of RAM, programmed with switches Included BASIC interpreter from Microsoft Written by Bill Gates and Paul Allen Cost of $397 appealed to computer enthusiasts The Personal Computer
- 91. Bill Gates and Paul Allen Wrote a BASIC interpreter for the Altair Founded a company they called Micro-Soft Microsoft is founded 1975
- 92. Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak Show the Apple I in the Palo Alto Homebrew Computer Club in 1976 Apple II was marketed 1977 and became a huge success - “Apple growth” Hewlett-Packard had turn Wozniak down – no market Apple is founded 1976
- 93. “The Personal Computer will fall flat on its face in business.” - Ken Olsen
- 94. Existing computer companies were not interested in PCs DEC, HP, IBM, and Control Data did not see a business model HP rejected a proposal from Steve Wozniak DEC rejected a proposal from David Ahl Support for machines like this was considered impossible Computer Companies Consequence: The development of the PC had to begin with hobbyists and new entrants to the market
- 96. The Liquid Network Think About This!
- 97. Assignment 3 due this Sunday L14 From the Internet to the Blockchain Next