Nigeria's 2010-2015 Socioeconomic Performance

Nigeria’s 2010- 2015 Scorecard
A Snapshot of Compelling Leading
and Lagging Socio Economic Key
Performance Indicators
1Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

Engagement Guide
Fundamental Economic KPIs 2010-2015 15
Strategic Oil & Gas Economic KPIs 2010-2015 24
Other Vital Socio Economic KPIs 2010-2015 28
Conclusion & Recommendation 35
Nigerian Socio Economic 2015-2016 Review 3
2

Nigeria’s 2010-2015
Socio Economic Review
using Critical Socio
Economic Key
3
Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited
February 2016

What To Look Out For in this Scorecard
• How has Nigeria fared Socio-Economically in
the last 6 years?
• What practical and reliable Key Performance
Indicators truly reflect Nigeria’s socio-
economic health as against the statistics and
indicators that Government publicists fed us
with?
• What indicators provide the basis for
determining the prognosis for Nigeria’s socio-
economic outlook in 2016?
• What Socio-Economic KPIs (that truly is
reflective of the socio-economic health of
Nigeria)should we be holding the Nigerian
Government accountable for ,going forward?
February 2016
4

Nigeria’s 2010-2015
Socio Economic
Performance Synopsis
February 2016
5

The Nigerian Economic Trajectory
2010-2016
2010-2013
Nigeria's
Economy was
flying in the
most
dangerous
missile prone
zone!
6

2010-2016
2014
Nigeria's
Economy was
shot at by anti
economic
missiles and it
started a free-
fall!
7

2010-2015
2015
Nigeria's
Economy
Crashed and
the
wreckage
was hidden
from sight!
8

2010-2015
2016
The wretched and
ruined wreckage
of the Nigerian
economy was
discovered at long
last!
The Casualties
have been
confirmed.
Survivors are
being
ascertained! 9

We were told by Nigeria’s Economy
Managers that Nigeria was not broke!
February 2016
10

Okonjo Iweala on 22nd Oct, 2014
• “If you look back two years ago, that title:
‘Is Nigeria broke?’ was written in a
newspaper article; it is like people are
trying to force Nigeria into brokerage,”
she said.
• “We are operating an economy that
depends on a product that fluctuates with
oil price and we don’t have the right to
control the price,” she said.
February 2016
11

Okonjo Iweala on 22nd Oct, 2014 Cont’d
• “Just like you have in your own household,
when the quantity diminishes or the price
drops, you remember in 2007 to 2008, the price
of oil dropped from $140 to $38.
• “At that time, nobody asked if the country was
broke because we had saved up $22 billion in
the Excess Crude Account and we were able to
continue spending and to stabilize the
economy.”
• “Does that mean that the country is broke? We
still have resources that we depend on; we still
have the ability to tax.
February 2016
12

Okonjo Iweala talking to CNN Richard
Quest on April 17,2015
• “Under this administration, we began the work of
truly diversifying the economy and the proof of that is
that much of the growth in this past few years that
has come to the country has come not from the oil
sector but actually from non-oil sectors like
agriculture, telecommunications, manufacturing and
the creative industries.
• “The fact that oil prices fell by 50 per cent makes it
very difficult in terms of cash flow, but Nigeria is
asset rich and that is why when people say the
country is broke, I say no.
• In economic terms, with the kind of assets we have,
we should be able to realise some of them to improve
our cash flow but it is true that this will be a very
difficult year because of the cash crunch.
February 2016
13

The real growth of the Nigerian
Economy will be seriously
challenged by the different
Important Socio Economic Key
highlighted in this presentation
February 2016
14

Fundamental Economic
Key Performance
Indicators 2010-2015
February 2016
15

Nigeria’s Economic Growth in The
Last 5 Years
16
GDP at $503bn 2013 Re-based Figures made
Nigeria, Africa’s biggest economy
2014
4%
IMF
2010-2013
Average
5%
2015
5.5%
IMF
2016
4.1%.
IMF
February 2016
The headline had always read that the Nigeria
economy is on the upward growth Curve; Is this
truly the case?

*Nigeria's External Debt Outstanding
(N' Billion) 2010-2014
February 2016
17
2010
689.84
2011
896.85
2012
1,026.9
2013
1,373.6
2014
1,631.5
*Source: CBN 2014 Statistical Bulletin (2015 stat currently unavailable)
Nigeria’s Outstanding Debt grew by 136% in 2014 over 2010 figures

*Nigeria’s External Reserve-
18
February 2016
$43.8bn
As at Dec
31 2012.
$42.8bn
As at
Dec 31
2013
$34.2bn
As at
Dec 31
2014.
$29.1bn
As at
Dec 31
2015
*Source: CBN Statistical Bulletin- External Sector Statistics Section D

19
$8.9bn
in 2011
$7bn in
2012
$5.6bn
in 2013
$4.9bn
in 2014.
$3.4bn
in 2015
Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs)
into Nigeria in the last 5 years
Cumulative 62% reduction in FDIs into Nigeria in the last 5years
February 2016

Naira To Dollar Exchange Rate Impact (N)
20
157.33 159.3
159.05 171.4
180.33 188.5
196.9 258.3
2012
2013
2014
2015
BDC- Bureau
de Change
IFEM Inter-bank
Foreign
Exchange
Market
Legend- Please note that the rates are in Naira & from CBN
February 2016

Even when there were improvements
in some Key Socio Economic
Performance Indicators as some of
the following indicators show, they
were still very marginal and could not
be traced to any deliberate policy
action to improve the socio economic
lot of Nigeria
February 2016
21

*Non-Oil Export Contribution to Nigerian Revenue
• Non Oil exports
year on year
average
contribution to
the Total export
between 2010-
2014 was 5%.
• 2014 Non oil
Exports to Oil
Exports ratio
was 166% over
2010 ratio.
Year Non-Oil Export as a % Of
Total Export Revenue
2010 3
2011 3
2012 3
2013 8
2014 8
22
* CBN 2014 Statistical Bulletin- External Sector Statistics(2015 stat currently unavailable)
February 2016

23
Year Total Non
Exports
(US$)Billion
% Y.O.Y Performance
2010 2.3 35
2011 2.765 20
2012 2.561 (7)
2013 2.970 16
2014 2. 714 (9)
* NEPC Source
• The Nigerian Non-Oil
Export sector added to
the national treasury
$12.35bn over a 5 year
period covering 2009-
2013 according to NEPC
official publications.
• Cumulative growth over
the 5 year period 2009-
2013 was 64% and
average year on year
growth was 16%.
• There was growth in
2010, 2011 and 2013
whilst export
performance went
southwards in 2012 and
2014 over the previous
year’s figures.
Nigeria’s Non-Oil Export 5yr Performance*
February 2016

Strategic Oil & Gas
Economic Key
2010-2015
February 2016
24

Progressive Decline of the Nigerian Oil
Industry 2010-2014
February 2016
25
Nigeria Crude
Oil Export
(1,000B/D)
2010-2,464
2011-2,377
2012-2,368
2013-2,193
2014-2,120
Crude Oil Spot
Price($/b)-Bonny
Light
2010-81.07
2011-114.5
2012-113.6
2013-111.36
2014-100.85
2015- N/A 2015-38.91
Active Rigs
2010-35
2011-38
2012-44
2013-50
2014-46
2015-27

Oil Revenue: Nigeria’s Economic
Albatross on the Wane
26
*OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin:
Year Oil Revenue in $billion %Increase/decrease over previous year
2010 77.4
2011 93.7 21
2012 95.4 1.8
2013 95.1 -0.3
2014 83.9 -12
Nigeria’s revenue receipts
“witnessed a sharp decline
of more than 67% from
September 2014, when the
receipt was at its peak, to
July 2015 .
Nigeria lost and loses N256bn
($1.3bn) in foreign exchange
inflows every month as a result
of the global fall in the prices of
crude oil, the country’s major
revenue earner.
CBNNNPC
Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited February 2016

Nigeria’s Plummeting Excess Crude
Account
27
$9.43 billion in
December
2007
$11.5 billion in
December
2012
$3.2 billion in
December
2013
$2.5 billion in
December
2014
$2.3billion
December
2015
February 2016

Other Vital Socio
Economic Key
2010-2015
February 2016
28

Ease of Doing Business in Nigeria:
2010-2015
Ease of Doing Business is a World Bank/IFC publication Comparing Business Regulations for
Domestic Firms in 189 Economies. IT the regulations that enhance business activity and those
that constrain it. Doing Business presents quantitative indicators on business regulations and
the protection of property rights that can be compared across 189 economies—from
Afghanistan to Zimbabwe
2010
144 /189
2011
137 /183
2012
133 /183
2013
147/189
2014
170 /189
2015
169 /189
February 2016
29
It is disappointing to know that it is more difficult doing
Business in Nigeria in 2014-2015 than it was in 2010

Global Competitiveness* Index: 2010-2015
2010-2011
127 out of
142
2012-2013
115 out of
144
2014-2015
127 out of
148
*A country or region is competitive to the extent that firms operating there are able to
compete successfully in the global economy while supporting high and rising wages
and living standards for the average citizen
February 2016
30

Nigerian Stock Exchange Market
Capitalization: 2010-2015
2010
N7.92 trillion
($53.40
billion )
2011
N6.54 trillion
($43.06
billion)
2012
N8.98trillion
($57.77
billion)
2013
N13.23
trillion
($82.80
billion)
2014
N11.49
trillion
($61.72
billion))
2015
N9.851
trillion
($49.46
billion)
(Figure includes equities, ETFs and bonds)- Source NSE
February 2016
31

Nigeria’s Consumer Price
Index(Inflation) 2010-2015
February 2016
32
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), measures inflation by measuring the average change over time in prices of
goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living. The NBS is the source for the CPI
2010
13.7%
2011
10.8%
2012
12.0%
2013
8.0%
2014
8.0%
2015
9.6%
An average of 10.4% inflation in Nigeria in the last 6years

*Nigeria’s Burgeoning
Unemployment Market: 2010-2015
February 2016
33
2010
5.1%
2011
6.0%
2012
9.5%
2013
9.1%
2014
7.8%
Q3 2015
9.9%
0.9% over 2010 4.4% over 2010 4.0% over 2010 2.7% over 2010 4.8% over 2010
*Source : Nigeria Bureau of Statistics

Corruption Perceptions Index: 2010-
2015
Corruption Perceptions Index is Transparency International’s publication on the perceived
levels of public sector corruption in 175 countries/territories around the world
2010
134 /178
Score of
2.4/10
2011
143/182:
Score of
2.4 /10
2012
139 /174
Score of
27 /100
2013
144 /175
Score of
25 /100
2014
136 /175
Score of
27 /100
2015
136 /167
Score of
26/100
February 2016
34
The lower score suggest high levels of corruption and Nigeria
seemed to have secured a permanent position in the inglorious
hall of fame of the most corrupt nations on the globe

Conclusion & Recommendation
The Tale of Two Siblings:
NNPC & NEPC
February 2016
35

Conclusion
• There is no doubt that Nigeria's current economic woes dated
back to decades of economic mismanagement and particularly
the harvest of the last 6 years of indifferent and reckless
management of Nigeria’s economic resources and
opportunities. The eggs of Nigeria’s prodigal management of
the economy has come home to roost!
• The years ahead are honestly looking scary for Nigerians
for the following reasons;
– Due to the harsh and inclement economic climate, there is massive job losses
on the horizon for many middle working class Nigerians, that will cut across all
sectors of the Nigerian economy and which will further swell the ranks of the
unemployed, increasing the population of economically vulnerable Nigerians
and putting intense pressure on Nigeria’s fragile social welfare dynamics.
– The massive indebtedness of Government at all levels will not improve in the
medium term and most States may become insolvent.
– The continuous free fall of the naira against all benchmark foreign currencies
may not abate in the short term.
– Unrelenting dip in crude oil prices may persist in the medium term.
February 2016
36

Conclusion
• The truth must therefore be told that “the Nigerian nation
is at the brink of a socio economic meltdown and
implosion”.
• There is therefore a need for better information dissemination
to Nigerians and more nationally coordinated effort to discuss
the way forward for Nigeria.
• Nigerians deserve to be well informed about the dire
economic situation we have walked ourselves into, after many
years of economic irresponsibility and negligence.
• It is also necessary to start to help define a short, medium and
long term plan to fix the addictive dependence on oil based
resources by all arms and levels of Government in Nigeria,
articulating clear plans to support the development and
growth of the Non- Oil sector at both grassroots and national
levels. Sweat Your Asset Derivative Limited
February 2016
37

Recommendation
• Whilst Successive Government in Nigeria in the last 4
decades have unfortunately focused on the Nigerian
National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) as the most
strategic economic and export revenue value creating
agency in Nigeria, there is an imperative to redirect the
focus appropriately to the most important Strategic factor
of Nigerian economic growth in the now and the Future-
Non Oil Export
• The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) should
therefore be given the Presidential, parliamentary and
institutional support to facilitate the constitutional
mandate behind its creation in championing the
sustainable and successful diversification of the Nigerian
economy. the economic rehabilitation of the states and
Nigerians in general
February 2016
38

Dr. Olayiwola Oladapo
Managing Practice Partner
• Organizational Development and Transformation
• Human Capital Strategy and Development
• International Development
• Public Policy Analysis and Public Sector Reform
droladapo@sweatyourassets.com
234-0818-726-3973 39
For a comprehensive Global and
Nigeria 2016 Socio Economic
Outlook and other enquiries kindly
direct them to the Managing
Partner
February 2016

A 2016 Sweat Your Asset
Derivative Limited PublicationSweat Your Asset Derivative Limited
February 2016
40

Nigeria's 2010-2015 Socioeconomic Performance

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