Some of the facts and my personal take on what is happening in Ukraine and why it matters for the EU and other global actors.

1. Ukraine on the Edge of War:
Why Does it Matter?
Olena Nizalova
PSSRU/CHSS (SSPSSR)
University of Kent
Kyiv School of
Economics
29th January, 2014

2. Ukraine in Civil Conflict:
Why Does it Matter?
Olena Nizalova
PSSRU/CHSS (SSPSSR)
University of Kent
Kyiv School of
Economics
29th January, 2014

3. Ukraine’s Anti-criminal Uprising:
Why Does it Matter?
Olena Nizalova
PSSRU/CHSS (SSPSSR)
University of Kent
Kyiv School of
Economics
29th January, 2014

4. Ukraine: country profile
• Second largest country in Europe
• Population: ~45 mln
• Natural resources: arable land,
coal, iron ore
• Metallurgy (20-25% of GDP)
• 1991-2000: severe economic
recession (50% decline in GDP)
• 2000-2008: economic growth
• 2008-2009: 15% decline
• est. 40% shadow economy

5. Ukraine: history
• Medieval state of Kievan Rus
• External rulers of Ukrainian territory at various times:
the Golden Horde, Lithuania, Poland, Polish Lithuanian
Commonwealth, Austro-Hungarian Empire, Russian
Empire
• 1917-1919: Ukrainian People’s Republic
• 1921-1991: USSR within Soviet Union (1939-1991 for
Western Ukraine)
• 1991: Declaration of Independence (>90% of Ukrainian
citizens voted for independence)

6. Ukraine: 1991-Nov 2013
• Transition from planned to market economy
• Privatization
BUT:
• High unemployment
• Low incomes
• Health crisis (life expectancy, TB epidemic, CVD mortality)
• Deterioration of physical and social infrastructure
• Corruption (Transparency International CPI rank 144/177)
• Human rights violations (opposition leader in prison,
massive election violations, court system and police –
against people and businesses for the interests of ruling
party and the ‘family’)

7. Since elections in 2010
• Rinat Akhmetov (main regime supporter): almost
tripled his capital ($15.4 bln in 2012)
• Olexandr Yanukovych (President’s son, dentist):
becomes billionaire during the first year after the
Presidential elections
• Sergiy Kurchenko (connected to the “family”): a
miracle of 2013, new billionaire involved in gas deals
and oil/gasoline business
• Other oligarchs supporting Party of Regions and the
“family” directly
• Mainly through state procurement and tax
preferentials

8. Recent Developments (1)
23-29.11.2013 President
Yanukovych refuses to
sign the EU Association
Massive peaceful protests on
Independence Square
(EUROMaidan) in Kyiv

9. Recent Developments (2)
30.11.2013 Special
force units (“Berkut”)
brutally beat
protesters who
stayed overnight
290 “Berkut” fighters
severely injured 79
people (students,
journalists, 64
criminal cases
registered against
protesters)

10. Recent Developments (3)
People’s response: Hundreds thousands
protesting

11. Recent Developments (4)
• Government actions till January 16, 2014:
• No investigations against “Berkut” violations
• Continuing criminal court hearings against the
protesters
• Does not react even to the “March of million”
11

12. Recent Developments (5)
• In addition:
• Yanukovych goes to China and sells huge land
plots with the condition that they will be
developed by Chinese workforce (2.5 mln
people), and signs the agreement to build super
port in the midst of the Crimean recreation zone.
• Yanukovych goes to Russia and signs “secret”
agreement in return to $15 bln loan.
• Government officials take Russian businessmen
on tours to the remaining state owned
enterprises

13. Recent Developments (6)
• Protesters’ actions till January 16,
2014:
• Maidan tent camp
• Open Maidan University
• People from other regions of Ukraine arrive
• Maidan – huge festival (music, dancing, food,
smiling faces, tours for foreigners)
• Boycott to the trademarks and businesses
belonging to the Party of Regions members
13

14. Recent Developments (7)
• Protesters’ actions till January 16, 2014:
• AutoMaidan protests near the residence of the
President and his key supporters
• AutoMaidan and other protesters blocked 3 buses
with the Special force units (who beat protesters
near one of the district courts earlier in the day) and
forced them to take off helmets and masks to
photograph and make known to the public
• Manifestations of Ukrainians all over the world
• People donate food, warm clothes, medicines
• Opposition leaders attempt to dismiss the PrimeMinister and make accountable the Minister of
Interior (failed)
14

15. Recent Developments (8)
January 16, 2014 – Adoption of “Dictatorship Laws”
• Adopted in violation of all possible voting rules in the
Parliament
• Some examples:
•
•
•
•
•
No motorcade of more than 5 vehicles
No blocking of government buildings
No installation of tents, stages, and sound equipment
Anti-mask law, anti-helmet law
No activity of information agencies without state licensing
(FB? Twitter?)
• Allowing trial in absentia
• No gathering and disseminating of information about
“Berkut”, judges, government officials and their families

17. “Dictatorship laws”: response (1)
January 19, 2014 – Radicalization of
protests
• Occupation of Main Government street –
Grushevs’kogo
• On-going street fights without changing
the positions
• Strong demands towards the opposition
leaders to act

18. “Dictatorship laws”: response (2)
January 20-21, 2014 – Radicalization of anti-people actions
• Arrests of activists
• Water cannons (-10⁰C), light and noise grenades turned into
combat grenades by attaching stones and nails by cello tape,
gas, rubber bullets aimed at heads (particularly journalists,
doctors/nurses) and cameras.
• Hasty court hearings in violation of human rights (no
lawyers, unknown place of hearing, night hearings, closeddoor hearings, separation of group cases to minimize the
number of supporters outside)
• Kidnapping of activists (severely beaten, then some released,
others detained, others found dead in the forests)

19. 19

20. First victims (20.01.2014)

21. First victims (21.01.2014)
Yuri Verbytskyy (scientist, mountaineer, pacifist);
Igor Lutsenko (KSE 2002 graduate, Economist, civil activist)

22. First victims (22.01.2014)
Mihail Zhiznevskiy
(26 y.o., Belarus citizen)
Sergiy Nigoyan
(20 y.o., Ukrainian of
Armenian descent)
Yuri Verbytskyy
(50 y.o., Ukrainian)
+ 2 more bodies unknown, taken by the “Berkut”

23. Journalists:..
• 43 journalists (including foreign) injured,
equipment destroyed

24. Ukraine: January 22, 2014

25. President’s side
Party of Regions
(Parliament majority)
controlled by Oligarchs
close to the Family
Cabinet of Ministers populated
by loyal allies of the family
(friends of President’s
son – dentist who turned into a
billionaire since 2010 election)

26. President’s side: Courts
• Courts are not
independent and
included in
“bargaining”…
• 72 year old man
is imprisoned for
beating Berkut…

27. President’s side
Special Force Units “Berkut”: 2 protesters killed

28. President’s side
Interior Troops

29. President’s side
“Titushky” – marginalized individuals who are skilled in street
fights, hired by the government and managed by the Police

30. Maidan’s part of the problem
Young and inexperienced Opposition Leaders

31. Maidan’s glory
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Some MPs: Andriy Parubiy, Lesya Orobets, Anatoliy Grytsenko
Scientists, Professors, university administration and support staff
Writers, musicians, artists
Professionals
Students
Independent mass media
NGOs in various spheres of life
Field medicine
Small and medium businessmen
Bankers, financial analysts
Lawyers

32. Maidan’s emergency
AutoMaidan - Activists on wheels

33. Maidan’s surprise
Ultras

34. Maidan
•What for?
• EU association agreement?
• Dignity, human rights, and freedom
•What is it?
• Civil war?
• Anti-criminal Uprising!

35. Maidan: intangible results
• People are acquiring strong feeling of community,
support and kindness
• Patriotic feelings are pervasive no matter what language
people speak – they want to be Ukrainians and live in
the independent country
• People are no longer passive observers
• New leaders emerge
• Internal reflections on dignity, values, and the
requirements towards the government
• Enormous self-organization: from everyday needs to
field medicine to security and education

36. Maidan: tangible results
• 10 out of 25 Local State Administrations are controlled
by the protesters
• Interior troops of 4 cities resigned
• Local members of the ruling Party of Regions resign
• Businesses related to the ruling party suffer significant
losses
• Opposition is now truly accountable to people
• Several important government buildings are in the
hands of protesters

37. Maidan: on-going battle
• Atrocities in the region following the same scenario as in
Kyiv (thugs+police) – beating and kidnapping
• Several more people killed
• Hundreds of wounded
• Wounded at hospitals often detained and sent to the Police
without proper medical support
• People who are detained suffer from serious beatings and
humiliation
• Those who are guilty of earlier atrocities still occupy their
posts and implement their “responsibilities”
• Interior troops and “Berkut” from January 27 are allowed to
use live bullets and shoot without warning

38. Maidan: on-going cheating
• Government tries to lure the opposition leaders by key
posts, like Prime-Minister for Aresinii Yatsenyuk or
Humanitarian Vice-Prime-Minister for Vitali Klitschko – the
Heaviweight World Boxing Champion Emeritus
• Government plays “cups and ball” with people and
legislation (January 28 voting in Parliament)

39. Maidan: people do not give up

40. Maidan: demands
• President resignation
• Return to the Constitution of 2004 (which Yanukovych and
the Party of Regions changed to strengthen the authority of
the President
• Agreeing on the date of new Parliamentary and Presidential
elections (possibly local government elections as well)
• Election of the technical government (possibly from the
Maidan activists and professionals) which would not have
the right to run for the key posts in the next election
• Lustration of the government officials
• Complete rehabilitation (not amnesty!) of all the activists
and simply passers-by detained by the government
• Thorough investigation of the interior troops and “Berkut”
actions and punishment of all involved in the atrocities.

41. The situation remains volatile
• Government resignation and repeal of some of
dictatorship “laws” on January 28 is a positive step (???)
(but some were immediately voted for again)
• Prime-Minister Mykola Azarov resigned (but will fulfil his
duties for another 60 days ???)
• Yet, atrocities continue, government has not changed its
tactics
• Activists and journalists are being persecuted
• No talk about presidential resignation and elections
• Things can change any day

42. Ukraine’s Anti-criminal
Uprising: Why Matter?
• Lesson to people on what can happen when civil society is
inactive, election turnout is low (60-70%) and the
institutions are weak
• Lesson to politicians that people cannot be harassed
indefinitely
• Lesson to EU: “Something that is yours forever is never
precious”
(Chaim Potok)
• European choice is under threat throughout Eastern Europe
• The EU’s name and reputation are at stake
• UA government will struggle to maintain firm control in the
west and centre of the country; the areas closest to the EU
will be the most volatile and unstable

43. Maidan: help is needed
• Financial help by Ukrainians and friends from all over the
world to wounded and detained
• Spreading true information about real faces of Ukrainian
politicians whose children and families like civilized
European countries and the US: EU public figures should
not be friends with Ukrainian Criminal syndicate (Party of
Regions) members
• Criminals are criminals, even abroad: thorough
investigations of businesses and accounts in EU countries
(including UK) may reveal many interesting details for the
authorities and applying the legal actions would be justified
(Klyuev in Austria), look at yanukovich.info
• Visa sanctions (some already implemented by the US and
Canada) to involved officials

44. Maidan: BBC overview
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe25890466