The Value of Certifying Products for FDO _ Paul at FIDO Alliance.pdf
Outlook on Fuel Cell Market and Technologies
1. Outlook on Fuel Cell Market and Technologies
August 14, 2013
By Dr. Ib I. Olsen, Ph.D.
olsenii@ibd-associates
http://www.linkedin.com/in/ibolsen/
56 Pine Street – Suite 9B
New York, New York 10005
(p) 1.212.732.2497 (f) 1.646.304.6663
www.ibd-associates.com
2. About IBD CleanTech Consulting
• IBD CleanTech Consulting was created in 2009 as the CleanTech branch of IBD Associates.
• IBD Associates was started in 2001 by a former McKinsey consultant and a CleanTech expert. We provide
business strategy and market research to a wide range of companies including several on the Fortune 500
list. We offer customized services across a number of disciplines. The core group brings with them over 50
years of experience from business strategy, business development, technology, and marketing areas.
Furthermore, we draw on a wide variety of specialists in areas from accounting and law to market analysis
and marketing.
• We have worked in the energy storage space since 1988, developing new batteries and fuel cells. We bring
to the table 20 years of start-up experience in cutting edge battery development, and broad knowledge in
CleanTech areas such as smart grid, photovoltaic, wind energy, fuel cell and bio fuel. Over the years, we
have created alliances with university groups and state and federal organizations to facilitate technology
transfer and commercialization, and we know the steps from basic research to final product from both a
technical and a business aspect.
• Our customer base includes battery and fuel cell companies, product development companies,
manufactures, system integrators, utilities, investment banks, and other financial institutions.
• In 2002 we started the energy storage company, Gaia Power Technologies, to sell products into the utility
demand reduction and alternative energy market. The company had significant product sale and it
installed in excess of 3 MWh of energy storage on a commercial basis. The products were installed mainly
in US but were sold abroad as well. The company won several demonstration projects from New York State
Energy Research and Development Authority, California Energy Commission and the US Department of
Energy. The company was sold to the lead investor in 2009.
3. Scope of Presentation
Fuel Cell Market and Technology
1) General
• Requested is an update of the technical state and the state of commercialization of fuel cells in a
two hour on-site or web-based consultation by a renowned FC expert.
• The request is triggered by press releases about FC R&D co-operations of major automotive OEMs
and the announcements that the market launch of FC-cars is planned until 2015.
2) FC Market/Application Areas:
• What is the expected market value of the major fuel cell types (PEM, DMFC, SOFC, etc.) until 2020.
(Graph market value per year 2012-2020)?
• How heavily depends the market introduction of FCs on subsidies?
• In what application areas is the business case for FCs already positive (without subsidies)?
• FC-Technology/Materials:
• What are the major technical hurdles that need to be overcome for widespread market
applications?
• What are the major challenges in FC to be addressed to chemical companies (e.g. membranes)?
• What kind of materials (e.g. chemicals) go into fuel cells; Breakdown market for FCs into market
share for components and materials (e.g. catalysts, membranes)?
• Which companies are working on the materials & components, H2-supply, fuel cell development
• FC Subsidies Governmental Interest:
• How has the interest of governmental funding organizations in FC technology been developed over
the past years?
• General Statement on the Future of FCs
3
8. Fuel cell market covers a range of technologies and markets
• Fuel cells cannot be considered a single technology, but a collection of
technologies that operate on the same principle.
• These technologies, which are generally classified according to the type of
electrolyte used, have their own characteristics and offer a different combination
of benefits in each case.
– Each technology are at various stages of maturity and are used in a limited number of
markets
• The overall market has been divided into three verticals, which are also
characterized by increasing power rating:
– Portable
– Transportation
– Stationary
• Due to the very wide power range there is a great difference between unit sales
and MW sales per technology
8
9. Expected market value of the major fuel cell types 2013 - 2020
• PEMFC fuel cells are leading in unit sales and in MW, but they are characterized by
their small size
– Based on 2011 numbers the average PEMFC was less than 2.5kW and projected to be around
1kW in 2012
• MCFC has almost the same MW sales as PEMFC, but the unit sales is less than 100
and an average size of 1-2MW
• SOFC has entered the commercial market in the large stationary market providing
a competition to the smaller MCFC units, but it is moving down in size and will
compete with PEMFC and especially high temperature PEMFC due to its higher
efficiency and its wider fuel range
• Incentives have driven the initial sales, and regulations such as environmental
standards, feed-in tariffs, taxes on electricity will continue to play a role in framing
the commercial market
• But as the price comes down, more and more commercial applications are
identified and will drive the growth in sales.
• Portable and stationary markets plus specific verticals within the transportation
sector will drive the initial sales
– Fuel cell powered passenger vehicles are the ‘holy grail’ for fuel cell manufacturer, but it is
also one of the most competitive markets in the world. As can be learned from battery
companies and electric vehicles, it can be a challenge to make a profit in this market
9
12. Unit and MW sales by fuel cell type 2008 - 2012
the_fuel_cell_industry_review_2012.pdf
Due to the very wide power range there is a great difference between unit sales
and MW sales per technology
12
14. Sales and unit price forecast 2013 – 2022
Stationary fuel cells
• According to a recent report from Navigant Research, annual revenue from
stationary fuel cells alone will grow from $1.7 billion in 2013 to $9 billion in 2022
• This is based on the number of stationary fuel cells shipped annually increasing
from 21,000 in 2012 to more than 350,000 by 2022
• Based on those data the number of shipped fuel cells will grow with 35% to 40%
per year but the average price will decrease with 12% per year
$-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
AverageUnitPrice
AnnualSales-Million$
Annual Sales - Stationary Average Unit Price
http://www.navigantresearch.com/newsroom/more-than-350000-stationary-fuel-cells-will-be-shipped-annually-by-2022
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20130506005278/en/Stationary-Fuel-Cell-Market-Reach-9-Billion
14
15. Automotive fuel cell market 2015 - 2020
Pike Research in 2011 forecasted a rapid ramp-up starting mid-decade. Based on the model
pipeline from several automotive manufacturer FCEV sales will total about 58,000 vehicles in
2015, indicating that about 950,000 FCEVs will be sold between 2016 and 2020, according to Pike
Research. Asia Pacific will account for more than half of the global FCEV sales in 2020, though
Western Europe will be experiencing the fastest growth rate by then.
The US target for automotive fuel cells is 80kW net, which based on the unit sales of 380,000
would correspond to fuel cell sales in 2020 between US$1 and 3 billion (using either US target of
$30/kW or the Japanese target of $100/kW)
http://gm-volt.com/2011/10/11/pike-forecasts-1-2-million-fuel-cell-vehicles-worldwide-by-2020/
15
17. Role of US incentives
• The major US incentive for fuel cells is and have been the Investment Tax
Credit (ITC) which is scheduled to expire in 2017
– It can be expected that significant push will come to play to extend the ITC
• California also has a Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP), which was
scheduled to expire in 2012 but was extended to 2016
• The following slides represent projections by Oak Ridge National
Laboratory in US on the effect of the ITC and SGIP on unit sales of fuel cells
for the micro-CHP, backup power, and material handling
markets, respectively.
– The micro-CHP data did not see the effect of the SGIP in 2012 as it was
extended another four years.
• The report otherwise projects a slight drop in unit sales with the
expiration of the ITC, but the sales curve picks up again the following year
for all three markets as the technologies become commercial viable
without incentives
17
18. US PEMFC based micro-CHP sales projections
Status and Outlook for the U.S. Non-Automotive Fuel Cell Industry: Impacts of Government Policies and
Assessment of Future Opportunities - ORNL/TM-2011/101
Projected effect of Federal investment tax credit (ITC) and California's Self-Generation Incentive
Program. With recent extension the CA SGIP is extended to 2016
18
19. US PEMFC based backup power sales projections
Status and Outlook for the U.S. Non-Automotive Fuel Cell Industry: Impacts of Government Policies and
Assessment of Future Opportunities - ORNL/TM-2011/101 19
20. US PEMFC based material handling units sales projections
Status and Outlook for the U.S. Non-Automotive Fuel Cell Industry: Impacts of Government Policies and
Assessment of Future Opportunities - ORNL/TM-2011/101 20
21. Commercial viable markets today
• There are a number of viable markets today:
– The portable market
• Value proposition: Longer run time per weight and volume than batteries
– Stationary backup power especially for telecom
• Value proposition: Longer run time, cleaner power, and more uptime than a
generator
– Small auxiliary power units (APU’s) especially for marine and recreational vehicles
• Value proposition: Longer run time than batteries, low noise and no emissions
compared to generators
– Material handling equipment (fork lift)
• Value proposition: Longer run time / increased productivity than with
batteries, low noise and no emissions compared to propane or gasoline powered
units
• As can be seen, in all cases the value proposition extends beyond simple $/kWh or km/liter
• As the fuel cell companies and their suppliers move down the learning curve we can expect
the cost to decrease and the reliability to increase which will open up other market verticals
21
23. Fuel cell power plant: Major system components
The fuel cell system is composed of four principal components:
• Fuel processing
• Hydrogen generation from hydrocarbons, removal of poisonous impurities, moisture
control
• Fuel cell stack
• Conversion of oxygen and fuel into water and DC current
• Electric power conversion
• Conversion of DC current produced to a voltage (AC or DC) for use in the application
• Balance of plant
• Fuel, air, and thermal plus overall control
23
24. Technical hurdles and major challenges
• The major challenge for fuel cells is cost per kWh produced.
• The cost per kWh can be broken into
– Capital cost of fuel cell (amortized over expected life time)
– Efficiency of converting fuel into kWh
– Self consumption of fuel cell during standby and during operation
– Operating life of sub components and how frequent do they need to be
changed out
• The technical hurdles touches each of these line items.
• Government sponsored R&D programs in EU, US, Japan, and Korea addresses all
the items and they have set performance goals for each
• Capital cost is also tied to moving towards mass production and streamline
manufacturing processes.
– Incentive programs such as the US Federal ITC program and California SGIP
helps increase production volume
24
25. Automotive PEMFC fuel cell high volume cost status from
various countries
2007 and 2008 High Volume Values 2015 High Volume Goals
IPHE Fuel Cell Cost Comparison Report.pdf 25
26. US DOE technical target for automotive fuel cell
fuel_cells.pdf
26
27. US DOE technical target for residential micro-CHP fuel cell
fuel_cells.pdf
27
29. PEMFC membrane electrode assembly
• As PEMFC has the highest unit and MW sale it is an attractive area to investigate
for a chemical company
• As the membrane electrode assembly represents around 50% of the cost of a PEM
fuel cell and is the part that typically has the shortest lifespan, several chemical
companies have focused on this part.
• The main focus has been on platinum reduction and replacement, on membrane
life, and on seal integrity
29
30. M K. Debe Nature 486, 43-51 (2012) doi:10.1038/nature11115
Kinetic activities of the main Pt-based electrocatalyst systems.
Example of work on catalyst loading and morphology for PEMFC
It becomes a compromise between cost, activity and life
31. Historical and projected price of PEMFC and DMFC residential
units
Historical and Projected Selling Price of
1kW PEMFC CHP Units in Japan, 2005‐2018
Historical and Projected Selling Price of
DMFC Appliances in the EU, 2004‐2018
Status and Outlook for the U.S. Non-Automotive Fuel Cell Industry: Impacts of Government Policies and
Assessment of Future Opportunities - ORNL/TM-2011/101 31
32. Forecasted component cost of PEMFC fuel cells for micro-
CHP, backup power, and material handling unit – US market
32
35. Fuel Cell Developers 1/2
Company Location Technology
Acumentrics SOFC Corporation Westwood, Massachusetts, United States SOFC
AFC Energy Surrey, United Kingdom AFC
Altergy Systems Folsom, California, United States PEMFC
Automotive Fuel Cell Cooperation Corp. Burnaby, BC, Canada PEMFC
Ballard Power Systems Burnaby, Canada PEMFC
BIC Consumer Products Shelton, Connecticut, United States PEMFC
Bloom Energy Sunnyvale, California, United States SOFC
Cellkraft AB Stockholm, Sweden PEMFC
Ceramic Fuel Cells Ltd. Noble Park, Australia SOFC
ClearEdge Power Hillsboro, Oregon, United States PEMFC / PAFC
DDI Energy Inc. Airdrie, Canada SOFC
Delphi Automotive Systems, LLC Troy, Michigan, United States SOFC
Elcogen AS Tallinn, Estonia SOFC
EnerFuel West Palm Beach, Florida, United States PEMFC
First Element Energy Lenexa, Kansas, United States PEMFC
FuelCell Energy Danbury, Connecticut, United States MCFC
FutureE Fuel Cell Solutions GmbH
Nuertingen, Baden-Wuerttemberg,
Germany
PEMFC
Horizon Fuel Cell Technologies , Singapore PEMFC
Hydrogenics Mississauga, Canada PEMFC
http://www.fuelcells.org/top_200.cgim
Manufactures fuel cell stacks for use in stationary, portable, and motive applications.
35
36. Fuel Cell Developers 2/2
http://www.fuelcells.org/top_200.cgim
Manufactures fuel cell stacks for use in stationary, portable, and motive applications.
Company Location Technology
Infinity Fuel Cell and Hydrogen, Inc. Windsor, Connecticut, United States PEMFC
Infintium Fuel Cell Systems Carrollton, Texas, United States PEMFC
Intelligent Energy
Loughborough, Leicestershire, United
Kingdom
PEMFC
IRD Svendborg, Denmark DMFC
M-FIELD Energy LTD. Taipei, Taiwan, Province of China PEMFC
MES sa Stabio, Switzerland PEMFC
Nedstack PEM Fuel Cells 6802 ED Arnhem, Netherlands PEMFC
Nuvera Fuel Cells Billerica, Massachusetts, United States PEMFC
Oorja Protonics Inc. Fremont, California, United States DMFC
Palcan Energy Corporation Vancouver, BC, Canada PEMFC
Plug Power Inc. Latham, New York, United States PEMFC
PowerCell Sweden AB Göteborg, Sweden PEMFC
ReliOn Spokane, Washington, United States PEMFC
SerEnergy A/S Hobro, Denmark PEMFC
SFC Energy AG Brunnthal-Nord, Germany DMFC
SOFCpower Spa Mezzolombardo - Trento, Italy SOFC
Topsoe Fuel Cell A/S Lyngby, Denmark SOFC
Tropical S.A. Athens, Greece PEMFC
Versa Power Systems Littleton, Colorado, United States SOFC
36
37. Components & Testing
Company Location
Ballard Material Products Lowell, Massachusetts, United States
BASF Fuel Cell, Inc. Somerset, New Jersey, United States
Bing Energy International Tallahassee, Florida, United States
Borit NV Geel, Belgium
Catacel Corp. Garrettsville, Ohio, United States
Danish Power Systems Lyngby, Denmark
ElectroChem, Inc. Woburn, Massachusetts, United States
ESL ElectroScience Laboratories King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, United States
FKK Corporation Kyoto, Japan
Freudenberg Fuel Cell Component Technologies Weinheim, Germany
FuelCellsEtc College Station, Texas, United States
FuelCon AG Barleben, Germany
Greenlight Innovation Burnaby, BC, Canada
Ilika Technologies Southampton, United Kingdom
InnovaTek Richland, Washington, United States
IRD Fuel Cells, LLC Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States
Johnson Matthey Fuel Cells Swindon, United Kingdom
Metro Mold & Design, LLC Rogers, Minnesota, United States
Neodym Technologies Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
NexTech Materials, Ltd. Lewis Center, Ohio, United States
Precision Combustion, Inc. North Haven, Connecticut, United States
PRECO, Inc Somerset, Wisconsin, United States
Scribner Associates, Inc. Southern Pines, North Carolina, United States
Senior Flexonics Bartlett, Illinois, United States
Vairex Air Systems Boulder, Colorado, United States
Makes the .nuts and bolts. of a fuel cell, including membranes, catalysts, and carbon fibers.
http://www.fuelcells.org/top_200.cgim
37
38. Hydrogen Supply
Company Location
Avālence, LLC Milford, Connecticut, United States
Cella Energy Kennedy Space Center, Florida, United States
Element 1 Corporation Bend, Oregon, United States
H2scan Corporation Valencia, California, United States
Hy9 Corporation Hopkinton, Massachusetts, United States
ITM Power Sheffield, United Kingdom
Linde North America, Inc. Murray Hill, New Jersey, United States
PDC Machines, Inc. Warminster, Pennsylvania, United States
Powertech Surrey, BC, Canada
Proton OnSite Wallingford, Connecticut, United States
Süd-Chemie Inc. Louisville, Kentucky, United States
Supplies the hydrogen source for fuel cell end-users. Also includes
developers of hydrogen infrastructure and hydrogen storage.
38
40. R&D grants, subsidies, and incentives
• US
– US DOE continue to support R&D in fuel cells
– Deployment is supported through Federal investment tax credits
– California has a self generated incentive program paying $2.03/kW installed capacity for
micro-CHP
– California require gasoline providers to install hydrogen filling stations
– New York regularly support deployment through NYSERDA, but it is on case-by-case
– Connecticut Clean Energy Fund (CCEF) has provided grants to commercial, industrial and
institutional customers towards the capital cost of new fuel cells since December 2005
• EU
– EU continues to support R&D in fuel cells
– Individual countries support the installation of hydrogen filling stations for vehicles and they
have aggressive goals for fuel cell and/or electric vehicles
– Germany has a co-generation incentive including fuel-cells and UK has a feed-in tariff for
residential fuel cells up to 2kW
• Japan
– Incentives for residential micro-CHP
– Aggressive goals for fuel cell and/or electric vehicles
• South Korea
– Up to 90% subsidies for micro-CHP
– South Korea has long-term, low-interest loans for the customers and manufacturers of
commercialized fuel cells, as well as a tax-deduction system for fuel cell power plants.
http://www.fchea.org/index.php?id=25
40
42. Conclusion
• Technology
– PEMFC has the highest unit and MW sales today, but it is dominated by smaller
units and the trend may be for even smaller systems
– SOFC is gaining foot hold in the stationary and APU market. Initial commercial
products are in the 100kW range, but new products are coming out with lower
power
• Market drivers
– Current market drivers are: extended operation life / higher fuel efficiency; less
noise; less / no harmful emissions
• Current commercial markets
– Portable units; backup power; APU’s; material handling equipment
• Almost commercial markets
– Micro-CHP; electric bikes / motor cycles
• The big unknown
– Deployment and adoption of fuel cell vehicles
– Is hydrogen the best carrier or should it be methanol, methane, DME, or another
higher density component
42
46. Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC)
• Electrolyte: Solid polymer membrane
Catalyst: Platinum is the most active catalyst for low-temperature fuel cells
Operating Temperature: Around 175-200:F
Electrical Efficiency: 40-60 percent
• PEM fuel cells operate at relatively low temperatures, have high power density, and can vary output
quickly to meet shifts in power demand. PEMs are well-suited to power applications where quick
startup is required, such as automobiles or forklifts. Single PEM units range from several watts to
several kilowatts, and can be scaled into larger systems – the largest to date is a 1 megawatt PEM
stationary power plant. PEM systems are available today for a variety of applications, with sales
focused in the telecommunications, data center and residential markets (primary or backup
power), and to power forklifts and other material handling vehicles. PEM fuel cells are also used in
buses and demonstration passenger vehicles – major auto manufacturers anticipate the start of
commercial fuel cell vehicle sales around 2014-2016. PEMs are fueled with hydrogen
gas, methanol, or reformed fuels.
• High-temperature PEM (HT-PEM) fuel cells are similar to PEM fuel cells, but operate at higher
temperatures, between 250:F and 390:F. HT-PEMs are often integrated with fuel
reformers, permitting operation using wider variety of input fuels. HT-PEMs can be used to power
vehicles as range extenders for batteries, and small scale commercial buildings and homes.
46
47. Direct Methanol Fuel Cell (DMFC)
• Electrolyte: Solid polymer membrane
Catalyst: Platinum is the most common
Operating Temperature: Around 125-250:F
Electrical Efficiency: Up to 40 percent
• DMFCs are similar to PEM fuel cells in that they both use a polymer membrane as the electrolyte.
However, in DMFC systems the anode catalyst itself draws the hydrogen from liquid
methanol, eliminating the need for a fuel reformer. The low operating temperature makes DMFCs
attractive for miniature applications such as cell phones, laptops, and battery chargers for
consumer electronics, to mid-size applications powering electronics on RVs, boats, or camping
cabins.
47
48. Alkaline Fuel Cell (AFC) and Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cell (PAFC)
• Alkaline Fuel Cell (AFC)
• Electrolyte: Potassium hydroxide solution in water
Catalyst: Can use a variety of non-precious metal catalysts
Operating Temperature: Around 225-475:F
Electrical Efficiency: 60-70 percent
• NASA has used hydrogen-fueled AFCs on space missions since the 1960s to provide both electricity
and drinking water. AFCs are poisoned easily by small quantities of CO2, and are thus deployed
primarily in controlled aerospace and underwater environments.
• Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cell (PAFC)
• Electrolyte: Liquid phosphoric acid ceramic in a lithium aluminum oxide matrix
Catalyst: Carbon-supported platinum catalyst
Operating Temperature: 350-400:F
Electrical Efficiency: 36-42 percent
• PAFCs can operate using reformed hydrocarbon fuels or biogas. Anode and cathode reactions are
similar to PEMs, but since operating temperatures are higher, PAFCs are more tolerant of fuel
impurities. PAFCs are frequently used in a cogeneration mode, in which byproduct heat is captured
for onsite heating, cooling, and hot water (also called combined heat and power, or CHP). PAFCs are
commercially available today with systems operating around the world at high-energy demand sites
such as hospitals, schools, office buildings, grocery stores, manufacturing or processing
centers, and wastewater treatment plants
48
49. Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell (MCFC)
• Electrolyte: Typically consists of alkali (Na & K) carbonates retained in a ceramic matrix of LiHO2
Catalyst: High MCFC operating temperature permits the use of lower-cost, non-platinum group
catalysts
Operating Temperature: Around 1,200 :F
Electrical Efficiency: 50-60 percent
• The high operating temperatures of MCFCs means that hydrocarbon fuels can be converted to
hydrogen within the fuel cell itself (internal reforming). MCFCs are not prone to CO or
CO2“poisoning” – they can even use carbon oxides as fuel – making them more attractive for
fueling with gases made from coal. MCFCs are ideal for large stationary power and CHP
applications, and are available as commercial products, with dozens of power plants deployed at
food and beverage processing facilities, manufacturing plants, hospitals, prisons, hotels, colleges
and universities, utilities, and wastewater treatment plants worldwide.
49
50. Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC)
• Electrolyte: A solid ceramic, typically yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ)
Catalyst: High SOFC operating temperature permits the use of lower-cost, non-platinum group
catalysts
Operating Temperature: About 1,800:F
Electrical Efficiency: 50-60 percent
• High-temperature SOFCs are capable of internal reforming of “light” hydrocarbons such as natural
gas, but heavier hydrocarbons (gasoline, jet fuel) can be used, though they require an external
reformer. There are two configurations of SOFC fuel cell systems: one type uses an array of meter-
long tubes, and another uses compressed discs. Tubular SOFC designs are closer to
commercialization and are being produced by companies around the world. SOFCs are suitable for
large stationary applications, and are being deployed across the country at data centers, office
buildings and retail stores. SOFCs are also being demonstrated for use as vehicle auxiliary power
units and tested for small stationary applications, such as homes and apartments in the
U.S., Japan, and Germany.
50