- Earth is entering a new geological epoch called the Anthropocene where human activity is the dominant influence on climate and the environment. - We risk destabilizing our life support system by exceeding certain planetary boundaries defined as a "safe operating space for humanity." - Immediate actions are needed in areas like energy, food systems, land use, and climate change to stay within these boundaries and work towards sustainability.

1. Welcome to the Anthropocene
The past, present and future of people and planet
CEMUS, Uppsala University
6th September 2019
Owen Gaffney
Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research
Stockholm Resilience Centre
Image: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

2. At the same time - people are fundamentally dependent on
the capacity of the biosphere to sustain human development
Key messages:
• Earth is in a new geological epoch – the Anthropocene
• We now risk destabilising our life support system
• A risk framework for policymakers “Plantetary boundaries”
defines a “Safe operating space for humanity”

3. The Big Picture

4. Unsafe Territory: Extreme Events in 2018/19

6. Living Planet Report

7. The Bigger Picture

8. Humanity’s 10,000 years of grace

9. Aborigines
arrive in
Australia
Beginning
of agriculture
Great Asian,
European, African,
American
civilisations
First migration of
fully modern humans
out of Africa
Migrations from
South Asia
to Europe
Holocene
Human Development and Earth System Dynamics
Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004

10. Latest CO2 reading
March 2019 412 ppm

12. The Great Acceleration
Steffen, Broadgate, Deutsch, Gaffney, Ludwig Anthr. Review 2015. Image: Globaia

13. WELCOME TO THE
ANTHROPOCENE

14. Are we leaving our
Garden of Eden?

15. The
Even Bigger
Picture

16. Steffen, Rockström, Gaffney 2018

18. 20

19. In 50 years we tipped from 10,000 years Holocene
to the Anthropocene
What we do next 50 years will determine next 10,000 years
Image: Mattias Klum

20. Arctic sea ice.
Greenland
Permafrost
Mountain glaciers
Boreal forest
Jetstream
West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Amazon rainforest
Coral reefs
Atlantic circulation
East Antarctic Ice Sheet
Antarctic bottom waters
Sahel/
West African Monsoon
Tundra
Cloud sensitivity/Atmospheric circulation
ENSO
Tipping points in the Earth system
Marine biological pump
Methane hydrates
Arctic ozone
Detected changes at 1°C
Tipping point estimated beyond 2°C

21. IPC
C
Assessmen
t
Reports
and 1.5C
special
report*
0 1 2 3 4 5 °C
Past Future
Changing risk landscape related to large-scale discontinuities
2001
2013
2018’*
2007 Undetectable Low High Very high
1.1°C

22. Arctic sea ice.
Massive reduction in area
Greenland
Ice loss accelerating
Permafrost
Signs of increasing loss
Mountain glaciers
Ice loss accelerating
Coral reefs
Large-scale die offs
2016/2017
Boreal forest
Jetstream
Increasingly
meandering
West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Ice loss accelerating
Amazon rainforest
Unprecedented droughts
in last 15 years
Atlantic circulation
30% slowdown since 1950s
Tipping elements undergoing detectable large-scale changes

24. Antarctica Melting Faster than Predicted

26. Caesar et al. 2018, Nature
Evidence of Changes in Earth System Is Mounting
Atlantic Overturning Circulation
• A key tipping element in the
Earth System
• Weaker today than any time in
over 1000 years
• Has already slowed down by
15% since 1950

28. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Meandering of the Jet Stream
Animation

29. Summer extremes of 2018 linked to
stalled giant waves in jet stream
x
Abstract
The summer of 2018 witnessed a
number of extreme weather events
such as heatwaves in North
America,
Western Europe and the Caspian
Sea region, and rainfall extremes in
South-East Europe and Japan that
occurred near-simultaneously.
Here we show that some of these
extremes were connected by an
amplified hemisphere-wide wave
number 7 circulation pattern. We
show that this pattern constitutes
an important teleconnection in
Northern Hemisphere summer
associated with prolonged and
above-normal temperatures in
North America, Western Europe
and the Caspian Sea region. This
pattern was also observed during
the European heatwaves of 2003,
2006 and 2015 among others. We Kornhuber et al., 2019, Environ. Res. Letters

30. A Global Map of Potential Tipping Cascades

31. Anthropocene
+
Holocene Our Garden of Eden
+
Tipping Points hardwired
=
PLANETARY BOUNDARIES
Image: GLOBAIA

32. Rockström et al, Nature 2009

33. Steffen, Rockström, Cornell et al 2015 Science
Image: Globaia

34. Planetary Boundaries Interact – E.g. Climate, land use and Biodiversity
Land use matters
• Stopping deforestation and
growing (back) forests are
pivotal to halt GHG emissions.
• Grassland and wetland
management also hugely
important.

35. 2009
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2010
2014
2018
2019

38. Websites
anthropocene.info
Exhibitions…

39. Ö’Neill et al Nature Sustainability
A good life for all within planetary boundaries

40. Climate Change Is Top Global Threat 2018
Survey by Pew Research Center, 2018
• 26 countries, 27 000 individuals
• 67 % name climate change as biggest
threat (compared to 56% in 2013)
• Fear of cyber-attacks and power of USA
on the rise
Source: Pew Research Center, 2019

41. 55
Is the Message Being Heard? Global Risk Landscape 2018-19
What is the impact and
likelihood of global risks?
World Economic Forum
Global Risk Perception Survey
2018-2019

42. 57

43. At the same time - people are fundamentally dependent on
the capacity of the biosphere to sustain human development
Key messages:
• Earth is in a new geological epoch – the Anthropocene
• We now risk destabilising our life support system
• Plantetary boundaries define a “Safe operating space for humanity”

44. Solutions space
59

45. At the same time - people are fundamentally dependent on
the capacity of the biosphere to sustain human development
Key messages:
• Sustainable Development Goals
• 6 disruptive transformations needed for sustainability
• Priorities are energy, food systems and land use
• Disruptive transformation is underway (but often not in the direction needed)

48. Year2030 20502040
The World In 2050
Radical transformative
pathways to meet the SDGs
within planetary boundaries
Planetary
Boundaries
Degree of
Global
Sustainable
Develpment

49. 64

50. Energy and emissions
65

51. 66
IPCC 1.5SR 2018

52. IPCC 1.5SR 2018

53. The gap between where we are likely to be and where we need to be
Global greenhouse gas emissions under different scenarios and the emissions gap in 2030

54. We have already emitted a lot of CO2, and thus we can only emit a little more to stay under 1.5°C or 2°C.
The dark grey area is an approximate carbon budget of 250GtCO2 from 2017 (consistent with “well below 2°C”).
1Gt CO2 equals 1 billion tonnes CO2
Emission pathways
Illustrative pathway
consistent with the Paris
Agreement’s “well below
(~1.5°C)

55. To stabilize global average temperature (at any level) requires global net emissions to be zero.
Because of equity, one would expect rich countries to be zero first and poor countries later (but still zero).
Everyone needs net-zero emissions
Zero-year for
a rich country
Zero-year for
a poor country
Illustrative pathway
consistent with the Paris
Agreement’s “well below
2°C” (~1.5°C)

56. Growing scientific
concern:
The scale of negative
emissions to remain
“well below 2°C” is
unrealistic.

57. CARBON LAW – a trajectory to stabilise climate
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Axis Title
GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS (GTCO2)
LAND-USE EMISSIONS
(GTCO2)
CO2 REMOVAL (GtCO2)
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen,
Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
GIGATONNES
CO2

58. 77

59. Cutting Emissions by Half 2030

60. By 2020 expect emissions peak in 53 countries… ….and a price on carbon in 51 countries
Exponential Rise in Action

61. Green bonds growth – doubling every
1.5 years. On track to hit $1 trillion by 2021
Divestment growth on exponential
trajectory. Fossil fuel sector on course for
major shock in 2020s
Exponential Rise in Action

62. Health, wellbeing and demography
81

63. 82

64. Global Analysis for GBD Study Confirms Health Effects
Figure: Age-standardised mortality rate per 100 000 population (A)
and DALY rate per 100 000 population (B) attributable to diet in 2017
The Lancet 2019
GBD 2017 Diet Collaborators

65. Education, gender and inequality
84

66. 85

77. Sustainable food, land, water and oceans

80. Conceptual Framework EAT-Lancet Commission

81. Scientific Targets for Sustainable Food Systems
Planetary boundaries for:
1) GHG emissions
2) Water used
3) Nitrogen flows
4) Phosphorus flows
5) Biodiversity lost
6) Land converted

84. 104
Cities
Macau, China

86. 107

87. Digitalisation

88. Digital revolution has the
possibility to support societal
goals.
But is unlikely to happen
without direction.
The time is ripe for tech giants
to assume more responsibility.

90. Digital revolution
• Unintended consequences and
emergent behaviour at scale
• A new power emerges:
• Soft power
• Hard power
• Platform power
Rasmus Nielsson – Reuters Institute, Oxford University

91. Platform power
• Automate action at scale
• Surveillance
• Privacy
• Behavioural futures
• Make or break connections
• Set standards
Rasmus Nielsson – Reuters Institute, Oxford University

92. New responsibility – the Biosphere Code

100. How do transformations happen in society?
• Enlightenment
• Industrial revolution
• Womens’ rights
• Civil rights
• Green revolution
• End apartheid
• Enlightenment
121

101. Transformations are usually the result of a combination of these:
• Interventions from knowledge producers
• Market confidence
• Social movements
• Government policies
• New technology
122

102. 123

104. At the same time - people are fundamentally dependent on
the capacity of the biosphere to sustain human development
Key messages:
• 6 disruptive transformations needed for sustainability
• Priorities are energy, food systems and land use
• Disruptive transformation is underway (but often not in the direction needed)

105. Feeding the world within Planetary Boundaries
Gerten et al., Nature (in revision)
–4%
→ ~56% net gain possible
 just enough for future demand
 implies massive co-transformations
–7%
–12%
–27%
kcal change
PB constraints
Water & nutrient
management+39%
+30%
Still feasible
cropland expansion
within PBs
Food loss reduction &
diet change+37%
Opportunities within PBs

106. Social Tipping
Points
”David tipping
Goliat”?

107. A Safe Operating Space for Humanity

108. Thank You!

109. To be considered

111. New method to better understand much-employed
self-learning Artificial Intelligence
Learners in two-state matching pennies environment Barfuss et al. 2019, Physical Review

112. by separating the
Agents Environment
joint action a
state, reward
interaction
adaptation
timescales
and
New method to better understand self-learning agents
⇒ deriving the deterministic limit of temporal difference reinforcement learning
⇒ allows a dynamical systems perspective on reinforcement learning
Barfuss et al. 2019, Physical Review

113. Learning dynamics reveal a wide rage of
dynamical regimes
SARSA Learning Actor-Critic LearningQ
Learning
Deterministic
Chaos
Periodic
Orbits
Fixed Points
⇒ shows that self-learning agents may not evolve towards a single behaviour. Instead, they
may enter a continuous cycle of different behaviours or even evolve on an unpredictable
trajectory.
⇒ Important to improve the design of large-scale self-learning AI systems
Barfussetal.2019,PhysicalReview

114. JOHN‘S MATERIAL

115. Technologies Beat Commodities –
Renewables Will Win (But Not Fast Enough)
Source: Farmer and Lafond (2016)

116. Source: Energy Innovation, 2019 https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Coal-Cost-Crossover_Energy-

117. Real Photovoltaics Development vs. IEA Projections
Graphik: https://www.pv-magazine.de/2017/12/01

119. The Future of Solar Energy:
Worldwide Innovation Projects
Cochin International Airport, India Blackfriars Bridge, London, UK Riyuetan-Weipai-Building, China
Yamakura Reservoir Lake, Japan Solar Farm, Punjab, India
Train Tunnel, Holland-BelgiumSolar Farm, Noor, Morrocco

122. J.J. Hopfield, PNAS, 1982
Spin-glass models of neural networks,
Amit, Gutfreund and Sompolinsky
Phys. Rev. A, 1985
Towards Deep Machine Learning

123. Source: https://www.quantamagazine.org/new-theory-cracks-open-the-black-box-of-deep-learning-20170921/

124. Source: Silver et. al 2017
Image: DeepMind Technologies Ltd

125. Fusion of Neural Networks and Quantum Computing
www.quantamagazine.org

126. The Dream of a Digital Circular Economy
• 3-D Printing
• The Internet of Things
• Automation of Production
• Automation of Deconstruction
More Efficiency
Less Material and Energy Usage
Better Monitoring of Material Flows
(Stahel, 2016)

127. 148