Our burning of fossil fuels in increasing the rate of CO2 rise 300 times faster than natural effects.

1. 1
Can New Technology Save our Environment ?
4. data supporting
anthropogenic
global warming
Our CO2 emissions are happening 300 times
faster than natural effects.
RISE 30 September 2014.
Paul H. Carr, Ph. D.
www.MirrorOfNature.org

2. CAN NEW TECHNOLOGY SAVE OUR ENVIRONMENT?
1. Nature’s beauty versus its utility.
2.Can new technology save us in time? Limits to Growth. Food
Crash.
3. Why be concerned about Global Warming? Weather
Extremes.
4. Data supporting anthropogenic global warming.
5. Technology and policies are available to save us.

3. The EXPLODING POPULATION OF 7 B IS INFLUENCING
OUR CLIMATE BY BURNING FOSSIL FUELS THAT EMIT
GREENHOUSE GASES: CARBON DIOXIDE, CO2.
1. THE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING
Emissions of the greenhouse gas, CO2, are increasing at a
rate of 2.5 ppm per year.
2. CONTRAST THIS WITH SLOWER NATURAL
PROCESSES
18K – 10K years ago, C02 increased at a rate 1/300th slower.
3. SLOWING OF THE TEMPERATURE RISE SINCE 2000.
Sea level rise has not slowed and is a better measure of
global waming.
3

4. 2014 CO2 levels
of 400 ppm are
120 ppm above
the pre-industrial
average
1875
• Carbon
isotope ratios
indicate the
CO2 increase
since1750 is
from burning
~300 million yr
old fossil
fuels.
1. HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING
4
Little Ice Age

5. 3.7 B
7 B
•Seasonal variations, 6 ppm or 2%, are superposed on the C02 increase.
• Population more than doubled since 1970
5

6. 6

7. Aerosols
CORRELTAION BETWEEN TEMP AND CO2 INCREASE
1880 – 1980: CO2 increased 47 ppm.
1980 – 2010: CO2 increased 52 ppm.
7

8. “Physics
Today”
Jan 2009
Pg. 48.
11- yr
sun-spot
cycle.
No
increase
in solar
irradiance
since
1979.
8

9. Greenhouse Effect
Glass transmits visible light and
effectively reflects infrared heat.
Visible
Infrared -Glass

10. Greenhouse Gases
Visible
Greenhouse Gases
• CO2
• CH4
• CFC
• N2O
• H2O

11. TEMPERATURES ON THE MOON ?
No greenhouse gas atmosphere.

12. TEMPERATURES ON THE MOON
No greenhouse gas atmosphere
• Diurnal Variations:
Day 123 C (396 Kelvin)
Night -233 C (40 Kelvin)
ON EARTH
• Greenhouse gasses, blanketing the earth, give much
smaller variations.
• On cloudless nights, non-condensing, persistent, and
increasing CO2, plus temperate dependent H20 vapor,
keeps us warmer than on the moon.

13. Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface.
2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere.
13

14. Satellite and
Radiosonde (weather
balloon) Data.
Lower Stratosphere
(60,000ft) is cooling
The increased
"blanketing" effect in the
lower atmosphere holds
in more heat, allowing
less to reach the
stratosphere
Earth’s surface is
warming.
If the solar irradiance were
increasing, the surface &
stratosphere would both incre14ase.

15. -Outgoing spectral radiance at the top of Earth's atmosphere showing the absorption at specific
frequencies and the principle absorber CO2 at 16 microns.
-The red curve shows the flux from a classic "blackbody" at
294°K (≈31°C≈69.5°F). Schmidt, G.A., 2010 J. Geophys. Res.,115, D20106, doi:10.1029/2010JD01421857.

16. 1750-2005: Even if
the cloud albedo
effect is assumed to
have the maximum
cooling value, there
would still be a net
warming of the
climate due to
human activities.
(UN Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change,
IPCC, 2007Report)
Solar Irradiance
increased by only 0.2%
since 1750.
16

17. HUMAN CO2 FOOTPRINT
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Aboard NASA’s Aquilla Satellite.
• C02 CONCENTRATION IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS GREATER THAN THE SOUTHERN.
• TEMP. INCREASE, SINCE 1880, OF NORTHERN = 1.1 deg. C
• TEMP. INCREASE OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE = 0.4 deg C
http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/2014/2/watching-earth-change
17

18. Last Ice Age, 20,000 years ago. Global Ave -3.5 deg1.8C

19. ARCTIC MELTING, Global Ave Temp 3.5 Deg. C Warmer
SATELITE PHOTO
A darker Arctic is boosting global warming
From1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made
North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth.
http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract
Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014.
19

20. 2. CHANGES IN THE EARTH’S TILT & ORBIT TRIGGERD THE ICE AGE WARMING
4 M PEOPLE 7 B
Ice Age
Nature, 484, 49-54 (05 Apr 2012)
During the steepest warming, the COreleased (dots) from the sea preceded the
2 global temperature rise (green line) by several centuries.
CO2 RATE OF CHANGE is 1/300 of the PRESENT RISE.
CO2 greenhouse effect drove the 3.5 C increase in average global temperature.
20
Sea levels rose ~ 100 meters (~ 328 feet). Flood stories

21. 21
Average Temp. Increase 3.5 deg. C.

22. CO2 CONCENTRATIONS, HIGHEST (33%) IN 800,000 YRS,
COULD REACH ~1000 PPM BY 21OO.
At present rate
of 2.5 ppm
rise per year,
humans are
increasing
CO2 at a rate
300 times
faster than
the recovery
from the ice
age 18,000
-10,000 years
ago.
Ice
Age
22

23. Dinosaur Extinction 65M Yr. BP Figure from Dr. James Hansen, NASA GISS
• Our present level of 400 ppm could reach ~ 1000 ppm by 2100.
• Arctic became ice-free 8 M years ago when CO2 = 300 to 450
ppm.
• Antarctic melted ~ 40 M years ago, CO2 ~ 700 ppm
23
-Earth was ice-free, sea levels 100s meters (~300 ft) higher.

24. 24

25. CO2 CONCENTRATIONS, HIGHEST (31%) IN 800,000 YRS,
At 2 ppm rise
per year,
humans are
increasing
CO2 at a rate
that is about
80 times that
of the fastest
natural rate
and almost
2000 times
the average
rate over the
past 800,000
years!
WILL DOUBLE BY 2100.

26. CO2 DOUBLING WITHOUT WATER: 1.15 K TEMPERATURE INCREASE
WATER FEEDBACK PROCESS ADDS 1.52 K: 2.75 TOTAL TEMPERATURE INC.
COUPLED-MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT : 3.45 K MEDIAN.
ROUNDS OFF TO 3 K INCREASE
“Water in the Atmosphere,” Physics Today, June 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.2009

27. CLIMATE SENSITIVITY FOR CO2 DOUBLING
Probability plotted versus Temperature Increase for C02 doubling.
2.6 C most probable. (Chris Hope, U Cambridge)
Cost of mitigation= $162 trillion
Cost of most probable damage = $314 trillion

28. Faux Pause
• Melting Greenland
• Melting Antarctica
• Mountain Glaciers
• Thermal expansion
Aerosol Pause
3. Global temperatures have risen since 1960, but rate of sea level rise has be
g r e a t e r . EARTH WILL CROSS DANGER TRESHOLD BY 2036
28
“Faux Pause” by M. Mann. Scientific American, vol 310, April 2014

29. Prof. Rick Muller
www.BerkeleyEarth.org
Volcanoes
TEMPERATURE INCREASE CORRELATES WITH CO2
1860 – 1960: Temp Increase 0.4 C; 1960 -2012: 0.8 C

30. Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed
temperature 1998–2008
by Robert K. Kaufmann et al. Proc. National Academy of Sciences 2011
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/06/27/1102467108
•China more than doubled its consumption/burning of coal
from 2004 to 2007.
•Sulfur aerosol emissions created by burning coal tend to
have a net cooling effect on the atmosphere.
• The cooling effects of sulfur aerosols has essentially
countered any global temperature rise caused by increased
levels of carbon dioxide.
•This balancing act between sulfur and carbon dioxide, along
with the slight decrease in solar energy during the solar
minimum and the cool La Nina, meant there was essentially no
statistically meaningful change in the global temperature from
1998 to 2008. 30

31. Video of my IEEE (Institute of Electrical & Electronic Engineers) Climate Discussion,
produced at NewTV, Newton, MA, 27 August 2014.
Moderator (left) John Horrigan introduced Paul H. Carr (center) and Ted Kochanski (right)
Video available available at http://vimeo.com/106296674
Video link can also be found by visiting my web page www.MirrorOfNature.org
And clicking on CLIMATE VIDEO
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32. A mixed regional picture.In this map of observed local surface temperature changes from 1951 to 2010,
areas without adequate observational coverage (shown in gray) are mostly found in the tropics and at
high latitudes. [Adapted from (1)].
G Hegerl, and P Stott Science 2014;343:844-845
Published by AAAS
32

33. Global Warming Since 1997 Underestimated by Half
British and Canadian researchers show that the global temperature rise of the past
15 years has been greatly underestimated. The reason is the data gaps in the
weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using
satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely used
HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed “faux pause” has virtually disappeared.
- See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/11/global-warming-since-
1997-underestimated-by-half/#sthash.fTsg2ih7.dpuf
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34. The rate of
sea level
increase
correlates
with the blue
line of the
CO2
increase.
Sea level rise is a proxy
for global temperature,
since it is due to
thermal expansion
(50%) and the melting
of ice (50%)
34

35. 35
2008, Sea Level rising

36. Oceanic heat sink.Evolution of the ocean heat content (OHC) at several depths of the global ocean
between 1980 and 2011.
A Clement, and P DiNezio Science 2014;343:976-978
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6174/976.full
Published by AAAS
36

37. Integrated OHC.Integrated from the surface to different indicated depths in the global ocean, A.
X Chen, and K Tung Science 2014;345:897-903
Published by AAAS

38. EARTH WILL CROSS DANGER TRESHOLD BY 2036 38
Aerosols delay temperature increase.( M. Mann. Scientific American, vol 310, April 2014 )

39. CLIMATE SENSITIVITY FOR CO2 DOUBLING
Probability plotted versus Temperature Increase for C02 doubling.
2.6 C most probable. (Chris Hope, U Cambridge)
Cost of mitigation= $162 trillion
Cost of most probable damage = $314 trillion

40. CONCLUSIONS:
•The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013: “It is
extremely likely (>95% likely) that human influence has been the
dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.”
(www.ipcc.ch)
•
HUMAN C02 FOOTPRINT
•Prof. Richard Muller’s independent non-profit research,
www.BerkeleyEarth.org , shows how all warming since 1900 is
due to human greenhouse gas emissions.
•Sea level rise correlates with CO2 increase which have NOT
paused since 2000.
•“We’re staring down a climate bubble that poses enormous risks
to both our environment and economy..”
40

41. At the 2002 Sigma Xi Research
Symposium I asked Prof. Molina: “What do
you think about global warming ?”
Prof. Mario J. Molina shared the 1995
Nobel Prize in Chemistry for his work in
atmospheric chemistry showing that the
human generation of CFC were making a
hole in ozone layer.
He answered that global weather
forecasting and predicting are complex and
difficult.
However if your question is,
“Should we do something about global
warming?”
My answer is: “YES!”
We must
reduce our
CO2
emissions.
41

42. REFERENCES:
•Reconciling warming trends
Volcanic, aerosol, and La Nina cooling together with slightly lower solar emissions
explain recent decreased warming. Significant warming trends are likely to resume,
because the dominant long-term warming effect of greenhouse gases continues to
rise. Asian aerosol pollution levels are likely to stabilize and perhaps decrease,
Gavin A. Schmidt et. al. NATURE GEOSCIENCE | VOL 7 | pgs. 158-160. MARCH
2014 | www.nature.com/naturegeoscience
•MIT Prof. Kerry Emanuel’s short book What We Know about Climate Change.
http://www.amazon.com/About-Climate-Change-Boston-
Review/dp/0262018438/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1397128649&sr=1-
1&keywords=kerry+emanuel
•Prof. Kerry Emanuel’s Free Course GLOBAL WARMING SCIENCE
https://www.edx.org/course/mitx/mitx-12-340x-global-warming-science-
1244#.U0K5S_ldWSo
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43. REFERENCES
•www.ipcc.ch The United Nations Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change
CLIMATE CHANGE 2013:The Physical Science Basis.
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
•www.BerkeleyEarth.org Prof. Richard Muller’s independent non-profit research group.
Funders include the Gates Foundation and the Koch Brothers.
• Earth Will Cross the Climate Danger Threshold by 2036
The rate of global temperature rise may have hit a “faux pause”, but a climate crisis still
looms in the near future.
By Michael E. Mann, Scientific American, vol 310, Issue 4, April 2014
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-will-cross-the-climate-danger-threshold-by-
2036/
•Small influence of solar variability on climate over the past millennium
Over the past 1,000 years volcanic eruptions and changes in greenhouse gas
concentrations seem to be the most important influence. Andrew P. Schurer et. al.
NATURE GEOSCIENCE, VOL 7, FEBRUARY 2014. www.nature.com/naturegeoscience
DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2040
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