Paul Simon Public Policy Institute Colleen Coyle Mathis April 30, 2013

1. A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to
Preclearance
for
Paul Simon Public Policy Institute
Colleen Coyle Mathis
April 30, 2013

2. AIRC Overview
• Creation
• Process
• Results
• Lessons Learned
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3. “In a spasm of good sense…”
• Arizona’s redistricting process is governed by
the state Constitution, as amended by voters in
2000 with the passage of Proposition 106.
• It stipulates that the Arizona Independent
Redistricting Commission redraw Arizona’s
congressional and legislative districts to reflect
the results of the most recent census.
• Passed with 56% of the vote
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4. Origins of Proposition 106
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• A serendipitous combination of champions:
– Two non partisan organizations: League of Women
Voters and Common Cause
– A native Arizonan with money in the bank who
wanted to give back
• Goal: A healthy exchange of ideas and better
governance
• Poll conducted to determine what people really
want. “Let the People Draw the Lines”
• Over 200,000 signatures collected to get Prop
106 on the ballot

5. Proposition 106
“Relating to ending the practice of
gerrymandering and improving voter and
candidate participation in elections by creating
an independent commission of balanced
appointments to oversee the mapping of fair
and competitive districts.”
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6. Some Arizona Context
• ~ 6.4 million people (3.5 million in Maricopa County)
• 2 x the land area of Illinois
• 21 Native American reservations (rural and urban)
• Growing Hispanic/Latino population ~ 30%
• From 2000 to 2010, Arizona added almost 1 million new registered
voters. Of that, 19% went to Republicans, 18% to Democrats, and
nearly 63% chose to be Independents.
– Republicans: 35.4 %
– Democrats: 30.4 %
– Independent/Other: 34.2%
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7. What are the requirements of the State
Constitution via Prop 106?
New district boundaries must:
A: Comply with the U.S Constitution and the Voting
Rights Act
B: Equal Population
Criteria A and B are federally mandated.
To the extent practicable the districts must be:
C: Compact and Contiguous
D: Respect communities of interest
E: Use visible geographic features, city, town and
county boundaries, and undivided Census Tracts
F: Favor competitive districts where no significant
detriment to other goals
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8. A: Voting Rights Act
– Arizona is one of 9 states covered as a whole meaning
that its congressional and legislative districts must
receive preclearance or approval from the Department
of Justice or a federal court under Section 5. To get
preclearance, Arizona must demonstrate that the new
districts do not discriminate against minority voters in
purpose or effect, which means there can be no
intentional or accidental discrimination.
– Under Section 5, Arizona's redistricting plans cannot be
retrogressive. The plans cannot weaken or reduce
minority voters' rights.
– The presence of discrimination can be determined by
analyzing population data and election results.
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9. Step 1: Setting up the Commission –
Commissioners are appointed following a
thorough screening process.
Timeline
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Process

10. Process
Step 2: First-Round Hearings
Before drawing a single line, the Commission
held 23 public hearings around the state in
July and August to get input from the public
about issues relevant to redistricting such as
geography, communities of interest, minority
voting rights, and competitiveness.
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11. 29,000+ miles traveled
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12. 12
Maps
The AIRC Wants You to Stay Connected
Maps

13. Process
Step 3: Mapping –
• Start with a clean slate
• Then divide the state into equal population in a grid
like pattern -- Grid Maps Approved August 18, 2011.
• After adopting the grid maps, the Commission met
more than 25 times to consider adjustments to the
grid to accommodate all of the state constitutional
criteria. During this time they received additional
public comment and draft maps.
• Approval of Draft Maps – Occurred on October 3,
2011 for the congressional map and October 10 for
the legislative.
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14. Previous Congressional Map
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15. Starting Point – New Congressional Map
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16. New Congressional Grid Map
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17. New Congressional Draft Map
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The draft congressional
districts included:
•Two predominantly rural
districts
•Three border districts
•Three districts in the
greater Tucson region
•Five districts that are
entirely in Maricopa County
•It avoids splitting Arizona's
Indian Reservations
•Two districts where
minority voters have the
opportunity to elect their
candidate of choice

18. Process
Step 4: Second Round Hearings –
• Visited 30 towns and cities all over the state
to share the draft maps and receive
additional public input during October and
November 2011.
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19. What does Independent mean?
• It means independent from the Legislature.
• It does not mean that politics is entirely
removed from the process
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20. 20

21. 21
“After having been served written notice and
provided with an opportunity for response, a member
of the IRC may be removed by the Governor, with the
concurrence of 2/3 of the Senate for:
- Substantial neglect of duty
- Gross misconduct in office or
- Inability to discharge the duties of office.”
Supermajority in Senate with 21 R’s and 9
D’s in combination with a draft map the
supermajority didn’t like = Removal of Chair
The Perfect Storm…

22. 22
November 17, 2011
Reinstatement by Arizona Supreme Court

23. 23
Step 5: Final Maps
• Upon completion of the public comment period, the
AIRC adopted tentative final maps December 21,
2011 and final maps January 17, 2012.
Step 6: Preclearance
• The Congressional map was precleared April 9, 2012
and the legislative map on April 26, 2012.

24. Sweet Relief
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25. Precleared New Congressional Final Map
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Features:
• Four Republican leaning
districts (44% of map vs.
35.4% R registration; two
Voting Rights Districts (22%
of map vs. 30.4% D
registration) where
minority voters have the
opportunity to elect the
candidate of their choice;
three competitive districts
(33% of map compared to
34.2% Ind/Other
registration).
•Two predominantly rural
districts
•Three districts in the
greater Tucson region
•Avoids splitting Arizona's
Native American
Reservations

26. Pre-cleared New Congressional Final Map
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27. New Legislative Final Map
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28. Results
• Public had numerous opportunities and
methods to engage:
– 58 business meetings
– 43 public hearings
– 5364 in attendance; more than 1800 via internet
– 2350 requests to speak
– 7403 pieces of public input
– 224 maps submitted
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29. 2012 Election Results
• Congressional:
– 4 safe R seats; 2 safe D seats and 3 competitive
• Democrats swept all 3 competitive seats with one race
taking almost two weeks to call (2454 vote difference).
• 2 of the competitive seats have been designated as
most likely to flip in 2014 (CD 1 and CD 2)
• In 2008, the Arizona delegation was 5D and 3R.
• Legislative:
– Senate: 17 R’s and 13 D’s won seats
– House: 36 R’s and 24 D’s
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30. More Results
• First time Arizona has ever received
preclearance on both maps on first try.
• Center for Public Integrity conducted a state
integrity investigation and rated all 50 states
in 14 areas, one of which was redistricting,
for which Arizona received an A, our only
one. (source: stateintegrity.org)
• Independent redistricting is preserved…so
far.
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31. Litigation Happens!
• Shelby County vs. Holder (Constitutionality of
VRA) Awaiting US Supreme Court decision
• 3 Pending Arizona Lawsuits:
– Leach, et.al. vs. AIRC (challenging Congressional
districts in state court)
– Harris, et.al. vs. AIRC (challenging legislative
districts in federal court) (Trial ended 3/29/13).
Awaiting decision from 3 judge panel.
– Arizona State Legislature vs. AIRC (assignment of
task to redraw Congressional districts is sole
purview of Legislature)
• Continue defending maps as necessary
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32. Lessons Learned
• Importance of shielding commission from
outside partisan forces
• Striking the balance between flexibility and
constraint
• Having a healthy and courageous 3rd branch of
government and fourth estate
• Legislative privilege/immunity; independent
procurement; funding; oversight
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33. A potential solution?
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redistricting

34. Transparency, Accountability…
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35. Are there adjustments to IRC’s
composition that make sense?
Having the commission more closely reflect the
electorate
– Larger?
– Geographic
– Partisan – The Rise of the Independent
• 2000: 43% R / 38% D/ 18% Other
• 2010: 36% R/ 32% D/ 32% Other
– Racial/ethnic – Hispanic Example
• 2000: 1,295,617
• 2010: 1,895,149 – 46.3% increase
– Gender
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36. If you want a friend in Washington,
get a dog.
~ Harry Truman
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redistricting
Colleen Mathis

37. 37
Thank you …
for your interest in
independent
redistricting!
(You’ve got a friend
in Arizona…)