1. NF - https://economics.td.com/newfoundland-labrador-budget 2. BC bond downgrade - https://www.fitchratings.com/research/international-public-finance/fitch-downgrades-province-of-british-columbia-idrs-to-aa-from-aaa-outlook-stable-25-06-2021 3. Provincial outlook - https://economics.td.com/provincial-economic-forecast 4. Natural resources output - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210623/dq210623a-eng.htm - Real gross domestic product (GDP) of the natural resources sector rose 2.9% in the first quarter of 2021, the third consecutive quarterly increase. The rise in the natural resources sector was strong, compared with economy-wide real GDP (+1.4%), reflecting growing demand for natural resource products as the country recovers from the pandemic. 5. MFG - https://economics.td.com/ca-manufacturing-sales 6. Construction - https://canada.constructconnect.com/joc/news/economic/2021/06/canada-no-slouch-when-it-comes-to-construction-material-cost-hikes 7. Automation - https://economics.td.com/ca-pandemic-digitalization 8. Retail sales - https://danavation.com/top-tech-trends-in-retail/ 9. Infrastructure - https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/2021/06/26/lets-reboot-canadas-infrastructure-by-including-the-community-sector.html 10. Value for money - https://www.sherwoodparknews.com/opinion/indigenous-funding-a-massive-failure/wcm/88b68f6a-9d37-4e45-a1bd-f5449fb90ae8 or Here is a brief look at why value for money and performance audits are very important for all levels of government - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/why-are-value-for-money-and-performance-audits-important-for-government-public-sector

1. TRUTHS ABOUT
CANADIAN ABOUT
FEDERAL TRANSFERS
TO THE PROVINCES
BY: PAUL YOUNG CPA CGA
JULY 12, 2021

2. DISCLAIMER
• This presentation provides the facts when it comes to equalization payments to the provinces.

3. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga

4. AGENDA
• GDP Growth 2010-2014
• Equalization/GDP Growth
• Comments from Alberta
• Comments from Newfoundland
• Tuition Example (Equalization)
• GDP / Provinces
• PQ and Equalization
• PQ Budget (2020)
• Rural Areas
• Healthcare
• Education
• Child Care
• Skills Gaps
• Reshaping of government
• GDP and Government
• Training/Knowledge
• Bottom line

5. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND EQUALIZATION
• “The Globe and Mail first reported earlier this week that the Liberal
government quietly renewed the equalization formula in its 2018
budget, so it will stay in its current form until 2024. But Tom
Osborne says it's frustrating N.L. is considered a "have" province
under that formula — despite its current fiscal situation. "We've
got a very large geography, one of the most widely dispersed
population in all of the country, we've got very rural areas. So this
province is expensive to maintain," said the finance minister Friday.
"When you look at other provinces with smaller geographies and
twice the population, that's not taken into account," he added. ” -
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/finance-
minister-wants-new-equalization-rules-1.4719209
• Equalization payments have long been a contentious issue between
the Canadian government and provinces.
• The payments are once again in the news this week, after it
came to light that the formula for how the money is
distributed will stay the same until 2024.
• Source - https://globalnews.ca/news/4290676/equalization-
payments-canada-provinces/
• Liberals hold 152 seats in areas that received
equalization
• Liberals are concerned about losing seats in AB
and SK as such focus is on their existing areas to
hold power after the next election

6. GDP GROWTH
Source - https://www.fin.gc.ca/fedprov/mtp-eng.asp

7. GDP GROWTH / FORECAST
Source - http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/pdf/provincial-forecasts/provtbl.pdf or http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/why-are-albertans-so-mad-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-federal-equalization-program
1. Job less recovery - https://www.fraserinstitute.org/research or
2. Tech sector - https://thefutureeconomy.ca/interviews/toronto-collision-conference/
3. Most profitable industries in Canada - https://www.ibisworld.com/canada/industry-trends/most-profitable-
industries/
4. Budget 2021 did little to address issues with competitiveness for the goods-producing sector -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-reshore-supply-chain-management-april-2021

8. GROWTH RATES 2016-2018 Equalization Facts:
• Ontario $1.8B in equalization for 2017
and its economy is growing at 2%+
• Quebec will receive $10B in
equalization and had a $2B budget
surplus for 2015-2016
• Pipelines to move oil from AB to east
coast refineries would increase
revenue for both SK/AB which would
help their economy and lead to more
money for equalization. Ontario and
Quebec do not support the pipeline
• Quebec has one of the lowest tuition
rates in Canada while Alberta has one
the highest
Source - http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/pdf/provincial-forecasts/provfcst-dec2017.pdf

9. GDP / CANADA
provfcst-June2021.pd
f
Source – RBC Economics

10. COMMENTS/ALBERTA – EQUALIZATION
• Another surprising conclusion is the extent to which equalization is only part of the transfer picture: from 2007 to 2014, Albertans sent $190
billion, or $24 billion a year on average, more to Ottawa in taxes than we ever got back.
• One example of the ways this occurs besides equalization is the employment insurance program.
• The equalization fairness panel notes that EI is much easier to get, and for a lot longer, in eastern provinces. Nearly 100 per cent of the
unemployed in Newfoundland, P.E.I. and New Brunswick receive EI benefits, compared with about 55 per cent in Quebec and about 38 per cent
for Ontario and Alberta. In 2013, Albertans paid $1.9 billion more into EI than we received back in benefits.
• Many Albertans have learned first hand about one of the biggest discrepancies: fishers are one of the only self-employed groups who can get EI.
While job loss numbers show over 100,000 Albertans have lost work over the past year, there are tens of thousands more self-employed
contractors who have found themselves out of work and haven’t received a penny in regular EI benefits.
• We simply cannot afford the status quo any longer.
• The panel’s report has six recommendations to get our country moving in the right direction. They include re-evaluating what exactly the
constitutional support for equalization means, fundamentally restructuring the equalization formula, fixing regional imbalances in the current
employment insurance program and calling on the Alberta government to establish a special commission to examine the finances of the
federation
• Source - http://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/jean-canadas-equalization-system-is-broken-and-we-need-to-fix-it

11. COMMENTS / NEWFOUNDLAND
• Finance Minister Cathy Bennett said Thursday she is disappointed Quebec asked the federal
government to not extend a loan guarantee for her province’s Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project.
Bennett says Quebec just announced it would post a surplus of $2.2 billion in the 2015-16 fiscal year
while receiving $10 billion in equalization payments. Bennett told reporters Newfoundland and
Labrador will face a $1.6-billion shortfall this fiscal year and is scheduled to receive nothing in
equalization. She says Quebec should take into account Canadian values in its relations with its
neighbors in Confederation. The Muskrat Falls project has seen its cost estimate increase to $11.4 billion
from the initially projected $6.2 billion.
• Source - http://www.thetelegram.com/Business/2016-10-27/article-4673603/Newfoundland-and-
Labrador-reminds-Quebec-about-Canadian-values-on-hydro-project/1

12. NB / EQUALIZATION
• https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-higgs-equalization-pipeline-1.4953187
• NB has forestry and mining resources that have been neglected to bad policies of the previous govts
• PQ has no incentive to do anything as they get their increases
• It is time to make bold moves to better support economic growth which in turn leads to more sharing of
taxation across Canada. Transfers are tied to GDP growth. Maybe it is time to tie equalization more to
areas like property taxation capacity or GDP growth or natural resources reserves or other areas.

13. COMMENTS/KEY POINTS
• Source : - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/160907/dq160907a-eng.pdf
Comment
• Quebec has one the
lowest tuition rates in
Canada. Quebec is also the
recipient of over $10B in
equalization.

14. MINING RANKING / CANADA
Source - http://www.thestarphoenix.com/business/energy/worst+destination+canada+investors+survey/15977452/story.html

15. NATURAL RESOURCES
Source - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/13-604-m/13-604-m2018088-eng.htm

16. NATURAL RESOURCES
Source - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/13-604-m/13-604-m2018088-eng.htm

17. TUITION RANKING / COST
Source - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/education/canadian-university-report/what-it-costs-
to-go-to-university-in-every-province/article32375427/

18. EAST-WEST PIPELINE
• In Atlantic Canada we need to be reminded of how the oil refining business has been sustained.
More importantly, that its presence has maintained a viable linkage to national resource
development and export trade.
• The Irving Oil people commenced refining at approximately 50,000/bld [barrels per day] in the early
1960s. It is now the largest and likely most modern refinery in Canada.
• But this feat has not been easy. Some readers will remember that at one point within the past three
decades Nova Scotia had three refineries: Gulf at Point Tupper, Texaco at Eastern Passage and
Imperial Oil at Dartmouth. The only other refinery as of this date in Atlantic Canada is the older and
smaller refinery at Come-By-Chance, N.L. A smaller refinery at Conception Bay has been shut down.
• So one can concede that there is room to use existing technology to further clean bitumen-based
petroleum and to improve pipeline technology. But society has become overconsumed with the
idiosyncrasies of social and environmental issues at the expense of economic growth. An
unintentional consequence of this reality is a form of embargo on meaningful future development of
Canada West Oil resources, including development of future technologies for oil cleansing and
value-added products.
• In Eastern Canada, Irving Oil has maintained and grown the single largest oil refining plant in the
country and likely along the Atlantic seaboard. Just recently, Irving announced completion of its new
$80-million Halifax Harbor Terminal. As a small but important region, we are indeed fortunate that
the Irving's have secured a major and forceful presence here in the refining and petroleum
distribution sector.
• Source - http://www.capebretonpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/2016-10-31/article-
4676049/Atlantic-Canadians-should-support-pipelines-/1
Comment:
• Quebec continues to fight
expansion of East-West Pipeline.
PQ receives $10B of equalization.
• Ontario has also fought the East-
West Pipeline. Ontario receives
about $1.8B un equalization
• Alberta Oil could help make Canada
Energy Independent as well as
expand exports of oil to markets.
East-West pipeline would support
refineries and exports to Europe as
well as other markets.

19. KINDER MORGAN / PROJECT
Source - http://www.delta-optimist.com/news/group-plans-blockade-of-kinder-morgan-construction-1.23122217 or http://www.conferenceboard.ca/press/newsrelease/16-01-06/economic_benefits_of_trans_mountain_pipeline_go_well_beyond_construction_period.aspx

20. 2018-2019 - EQUALIZATION
Source - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-quebec-to-receive-14-billion-equalization-boost-while-oil-
producing/

21. FINANCE MINISTERS
Source - https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/equalization-formula-a-hot-topic-as-finance-ministers-meet-1.4211228
It's up almost $880 million from the current year, but that amount will be split among just five provinces -- Quebec,
Manitoba, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick. For the first time since the 2008 recession put Ontario on
the have-not province list, Ontario is not among them.
Quebec on the other hand is getting more than $13 billion from the program, an increase of nearly $1.4
billion.
Technically Ontario's economic growth was good enough in 2016-17 to push it out of have-not status, when a province's
finances are considered lower than average and qualifies them for equalization.
However because of the way the program works, Ontario still received $963 million in 2018-19.
The government was well aware it would not be qualifying this year for equalization but Ontario Finance Minister Vic Fedeli
said it's further proof of why the equalization program needs an overhaul. He said Ontario will contributed $8 billion into
equalization, and won't get anything from it. Overall Ontario will give Ottawa $12.9 billion more in taxes than it will receive
from federal spending, he said.

22. FINANCE MINISTER – BILL MORNEAU
Source - https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/equalization-formula-a-hot-topic-as-finance-ministers-meet-
1.4211228
• Morneau has ignores input from the provinces
• Liberals own 40 seats in PQ -
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.3278830
• Liberals are not about solutions including how
best to provide support to the provinces.
• SK & AB are fighting with Ottawa over
management of natural resources including the
forced carbon taxation -
https://canada.constructconnect.com/joc/news/g
overnment/2019/07/kenney-tells-premiers-
national-unity-threatened-resource-equalization-
payment-policies
• Ontario has largest economy in Canada has called
out the unfair equalization process.
• Liberal 2015 election platform included better
relations with the provinces -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/trade-
barriers-provincial-canada-march (see slide 15)

23. GDP / PROVINCES
• SK, NF and AB continue to pay more into equalization despite a slump with their resource base economies
• Morneau refuses to review the equalization formula as Liberals need the seats in PQ
• AB and SK would have stronger economy if the Liberals did not drag their feet on trade policies including
excessive regulations when it comes to getting goods out of the ground to market -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-natural-resources-canada-august-2019
• Bad foreign policies are leading to trade issues with many countries. Canada should have seen stronger exports
to Southeast Asia, but lacks the export capacity as well as having poor relations with many Asian countries -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-asia-foreign-relations-and-trade-canada-august-2019

24. EQUALIZATION
Source -
https://montrealgazette.com/news/que
bec/equalization-is-part-of-the-original-
deal-and-quebec-will-fight-to-keep-it-
says-premier-
legault?utm_medium=Social&utm_sourc
e=Twitter#Echobox=1566171656

25. PQ BUDGET (2020)

26. PBO /
EQUALIZATION
SOURCE - PBO
Source - https://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/blog/news-releases--communiques-de-presse/COM-2021-001--limits-in-
the-growth-of-equalization-payments-net-feds-145b-over-10-years-says-pbo--les-contraintes-sur-la-croissance-
de-la-perequation-ont-entraine-des-economies-federales-nettes-de-145-milliards-de-dollars-sur-10-ans-selon-le-
dpb

27. BLOG – RURAL
Blog – Rural Affairs – Canada = How best to support small and medium size
businesses in rural areas. https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-
required-to-support-rural-canada-249687386

28. HEALTHCARE
Blog - How prioritizing health can help people, economies, and
businesses - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/blog-how-prioritizing-
health-can-help-people-economies-paul-young/?published=t

29. EDUCATION
Blog – How to Reform STEM – Education and Training -
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-reform-stem-education-training-paul-
young/?published=t
New research from the annual 3M State of Science Index reveals whether it is
finding the way out of the pandemic, or successfully tackling other issues such
as sustainability and climate change. 93 per cent of Canadians recognize
scientists as being critical to our future well-being considering the pandemic.
At the same time, 68 per cent of Canadians acknowledge underrepresented
minority groups often do not receive access to STEM education, which is
critical not only because a more diverse STEM workforce will result in more
innovative ideas, but also to enable Canada to increase its global collaboration
to help solve some of our biggest problems

30. CHILD CARE
@HonAhmedHussen I bet it is all about hiring more govt workers, right? This is all about pushing more govt
workers! @JimboStanford was part of the report as such that should be enough to discount it!
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/new-normal-for-canada-and-the-world
PQ model also has issues, right.
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-child-care-who-do-trust-more-to-support-child-care

31. SKILLS GAPS
Blog - Almost all workers will be required to learn new digital skills in the next decade -
By the time we hit 2030, almost all workers in the UK (90 percent) will be required to learn new digital skills to do their
jobs, a new report from CRM provider Salesforce and analyst firm IDC argues.
Blog – How to Reform STEM – Education and Training - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-reform-stem-education-
training-paul-young/?published=t
How to improve job quality - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-best-to-improve-job-quality-for-canadians

32. REFORMING THE PUBLIC SECTOR
It is time to look at reforming government as part of fixing systemic issues with both tax fairness and
effectiveness of program spending - There is a great opportunity for data, AI, platform, and security to help
reshape the public sector (government) - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-the-
public-sector
•

33. NEW NORMAL
Canada like many countries needs to reshape their foreign,
domestic, and tax policies to reflect the new normal - -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-canada-
may-2021

34. BOTTOM LINE
• Equalization agreement is up in 2018. A new deal is required to ensure there is proper balance in terms of sharing of revenue.
• Provinces need to break down internal trade barriers. Internal trade barriers are leading to issues with productivity as well as profitability
for companies. - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-address-issues-facing-getting-goods-to-market
• PQ is holding up projects like East-West Pipeline and yet gets nearly $11B in equalization from AB, NF and SK
• Federal government and provinces need to work together to improve economic growth across Canada. -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/scorecard-liberal-party-of-canada-fiscal-and-economic
• Federal government and provinces need to focus on reducing regulations. C69 is poorly constructed bill that could add years to getting
Natural Resources projects off the ground - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-competitiveness-analysis-of-policy
• All levels of governments are not doing enough when it comes to economic development -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-by-industry-canada-june-2020
• All levels of government need to focus on being more business competitive. https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-
canada-and-global-competitiveness-may-2019
• Government needs to be reformed - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/public-sector-how-to-reform-all-levels-of-government

35. OTHER SOURCES
• If you like to learn more
about trade and/or other
subjects as part of your
professional learning and
development then feel free
to review my material on
https://www.udemy.com/
(search Paul Young CPA CGA

36. Q&A
• Contact: Paul Young
• Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com