Here is a brief look at the economies for both the USA and Canada

1. P A U L Y O U N G C P A C G A
O C T O B E R 3 0 , 2 0 2 0
KEY MACRO AND MICRO
INDICATORS – CANADA AND UNITED
STATES

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Changes
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• Academia – Advance Accounting, Public
Finance and Advanced Management Systems
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. AGENDA
• Key macro indicators for United States
• Canada and Housing
• Blog – Housing
• Key Commodities
• AG Equipment / September2020
• Class 8 Truck Sales / September 2020
• Steel / September 2020
• Blog – Construction
• Power Generation
• Oil Rigs and Pricing
• Retail Sales / Canada
• Retail Sales / USA
• Blog – Retail Sales
• Manufacturing Sales / Canada
• Blog – Manufacturing
• Key Metric #1 - Canada
• Key Metric #2 – Canada
• Key Metric #3 – Canada
• GDP / Canada – August 2020
• GDP / USA – Est Sept/2020
• USA Durable Goods – Sep/ 2020
• USA Fiscal Cycle
• Summary

4. Key Macro Indicators for USA

5. Canada and Housing

6. Blog - Housing
Canada
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas recently published a report that analyzed the real estate markets in the Group of Seven countries during the
second quarter. According to the report, Canadian residential real estate prices reported the biggest jump in the G7, rising 2.42% from Q1-2020. The
next biggest jump by a G7 country was France, rising 1.71%. This occurred in Canada despite soaring vacancy rates and very little immigration during
the April-to-June period. To get a better understanding of the Canadian housing market, RE/MAX shared the average sales prices and the year-over-
year growth from August.
 Greater Toronto Area: $890,400 (+11.1%)
 Greater Vancouver Area: $1,038,700 (+5.3%)
 Ottawa: $517,800 (+19.9%)
 Greater Montreal Area: $408,200 (+16.4%)
 Halifax: $372,982 (+18.1%)
• Source - https://torontostoreys.com/canada-real-estate-market-winter-remax/
United States
U.S. housing starts rose 1.9% in September to a 2-month high of 1.415 mln units annualized. That not only missed expectations, but it came off a
downwardly revised July and August. But hey, that is cool, as the underlying details were far better than what the headline showed. The all-important
single-family component jumped 8.5% to a 13-year high of 1.108 mln units (or June 2007), or 78% of total starts, while multis fell at a double-digit
pace for the second straight month. Insert well-known anecdotes of working from home, search for more space/rooms/thicker walls, etc. Perhaps
what is more important is the indicator for future starts. Building permits jumped a higher-than-expected 5.2% to 1.553 mln units annualized, the
highest since March 2007. Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/1660e445-4e38-4b30-9c83-d12c96cd8ceb/
My work
Canada - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/housing-market-analysis-and-commentary-canada

7. Key Commodities

8. AG Equipment

9. Class 8 Truck Sales / USA

10. Heavy Truck Sales

11. Steel

12. Blog – Construction
Canada
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/201029/dq201029c-eng.htm
The total value of non-residential permits was up 40.6% to $3.4 billion in September, mostly attributable to large
projects in Ontario (+$805 million). Additional permits for Project Python in the city of Ottawa and the Breithaupt Block
office building in the city of Kitchener, contributed to a 42.3% rise in the value of commercial permits nationally,
increasing the total to $1.9 billion. The value of permits issued for industrial buildings rose in eight provinces, breaking
the downward trend observed over the previous three months. Permits issued in Quebec, Ontario and Prince Edward
Island drove the increase of 49.1% to $713 million nationally.
Following two months of declines, the value of institutional permits expanded by 30.2% to $799 million. A $130 million
permit issued for major renovations to the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Sherbrooke in Quebec and several permits
issued for the new construction of nursing homes and senior citizen homes in Ontario contributed to the increase in this
total
My work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/policy-construction-and-infrastructure-october-2020

13. Blog - Construction
United States
The employment pickup in September was mainly in homebuilding, home improvement and a portion of nonresidential construction, Simonson
says. There was a rise of 22,100 jobs in residential construction employment, comprising residential building (6,600) and residential specialty
trade contractors (15,500). There was a gain of 4,000 jobs in nonresidential construction employment, covering nonresidential building (5,300),
specialty trades (2,100) and heavy and civil engineering construction (-3,400). The industry’s unemployment rate in September was 7.1% with
700,000 former construction workers idled. These figures were more than double the September 2019 figures of 3.2% and 319,000 workers,
respectively.
Association officials report that nonresidential construction was likely to continue to stagnate while the pandemic persists without new
additional federal coronavirus recovery measures. Those recovery measures must include liability protections for businesses that are protecting
workers from the coronavirus, new infrastructure investments and funding for depleted state and local construction budgets. “Until businesses
are confident enough to invest in new development projects and state and local governments are able to invest in public works, the commercial
construction sector will not be able to fully recover,” says Stephen E. Sandherr, chief executive officer of AGC. “Protecting honest employers,
improving our infrastructure and helping state and local officials fix schools and improve other public facilities will create the jobs people need
and the momentum our economy requires.”
Source - https://www.constructconnect.com/blog/how-the-construction-industry-can-lead-the-economic-recovery or
https://www.khl.com/international-construction/us-construction-adds-jobs-in-september/146351.article

14. Power Generation

15. Oil Rigs and Pricing

16. Blog – Oil
Canada and Oil
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/bleak-drilling-forecast-calls-for-even-fewer-canadian-oil-and-gas-wells-in-2021-
263080/
It says it expects a total of 2,600 wells will be drilled in Canada next year, down from its expected total of 2,850 wells in the current
year. Both numbers represent more than 50-year lows for activity.
My work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/oil-and-gas-sector-analysis-and-commentary-october-2020
United States and Oil
The October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because mitigation and
reopening efforts related to COVID-19 continue to evolve. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused
changes in energy demand and supply patterns in 2020 and will continue to affect these patterns in the future. This STEO assumes
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 4.4% in the first half of 2020 from the same period a year ago. It assumes that GDP
will rise beginning in the third quarter of 2020 and will grow 3.5% year-over-year in 2021. The U.S. macroeconomic assumptions in
this outlook are based on forecasts by IHS Markit.
Crude oil is produced in 32 U.S. states and in U.S. coastal waters. In 2019, about 69% of total U.S. crude oil production came from
five states. (Texas, North Dakota, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Colorado
Source - https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/us-2020-crude-output-to-fall-less-than-previously-
expected-eia/78029815 or https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/us_oil.php or https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-
petroleum-products/where-our-oil-comes-from.php

17. Retail Sales / Canada

18. USAUSA retail Sales / September 2020
Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/2dc16869-
208c-405b-b28e-ce47c5fd072f/

19. Blog – Retail Sales
Retailers will increasingly invest in digital technologies, including digital assistants, ambient commerce, artificial intelligence, automation, and
advanced analytics Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/research-and-development/what-is-disrupting-the-future-of-retail-
262844/
 Future retail place: Online retailers will aggressively partner with or acquire companies with a strong physical footprint to provide an
effective online-to-offline experience.
 Future points of commerce: The rise of the Internet of Things and the growing trend of sensitization will mandate that retailers and brands
develop new strategies to compete and lead in these new points of commerce, such as smart home commerce, in-vehicle commerce, and
anywhere commerce.
 Future people: Vendors need to understand the purchasing habits of Gen Alpha. This group comprises the latest power brokers in the family
and will also become a dominant population cohort by 2025.
 Future process: Contactless shopping will gain prominence in the post-COVID world. Retailers will increasingly invest in digital technologies,
including augmented reality, ambient commerce, artificial intelligence, automation, and data analytics to gain a competitive advantage.
Here is my work on retail:
1. Canada Retail - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retail-sales-canada-august-2020
2. United States Retail - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retail-sector-united-states-september-2020

20. Manufacturing Sales / Canada

21. Durable Goods
Source -https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/4a33d3fb-787e-4b13-9c9d-9456db476d91/

22. Manufacturing
USA Manufacturing https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/article/21145024/us-factory-production-fell-06-in-september-
as-recovery-slackens?utm_source=IY+IW+Daily+Headlines+-
+Morning&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS201015104&o_eid=7930I4506489J2B&rdx.ident%5Bpull%5D=omeda%7C793
0I4506489J2B&oly_enc_id=7930I4506489J2B
Industrial production of durable materials fell 0.5 points in September after rising 0.6 points in August. Production of primary
metals and fabricated metal products both improved by 1.7 points each, and aerospace and miscellaneous transport equipment
production rose by 4.6 points, but other durable-goods segments endured significant losses. Motor vehicle and parts production,
after driving production growth during the summer months, fell 4.3 points in August and 4 more points in September.
Miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing production fell 1.9 points, nonmetallic products fell 1.2 points, and computer and
electronic products fell 2.6 points.
Nondurable manufacturing production was stable as textile production rose 4.5 points but was offset by losses in other sectors: the
index tracking petroleum and coal product production fell 3.5 points while apparel and leather product production fell 2.1 points.
Capacity utilization fell 0.4 points in durable manufacturing but was stable for nondurable goods.
My analysis https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/manufacturing-sector-canada-and-usa-august-2020-and-september-2020

23. Canada – GDP – August 2020
Source - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/201030/t001a-eng.htm

24. Per Capita Income / Canada
Source – Stats Canada

25. USA – GDP
Source - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/30/us-gdp-q2-2020.html or https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/d3c39461-c2a0-4692-808a-
1e6797c74f85/

26. Key Metrics – Canada
Source - Source - Stats Canada, BMO, RBC, CIBC, TD Economics, Derosiers Automotive, World Steel, Association of AG Equipment, IES, US Govt, The Trucker and BNS, https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/, Table: 25-10-0058-01 (formerly CANSIM 129-
0006)

27. Key Metrics – Canada
Source - Source - Stats Canada, BMO, RBC, CIBC, TD Economics, Derosiers Automotive, World Steel, Association of AG Equipment, IES, US Govt, The Trucker and BNS, https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/, Table: 25-10-0058-01 (formerly CANSIM 129-
0006)

28. Key Metrics – Canada
Source - Source - Stats Canada, BMO, RBC, CIBC, TD Economics, Derosiers Automotive, World Steel, Association of AG Equipment, IES, US Govt, The Trucker and BNS, https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/, Table: 25-10-0058-01 (formerly CANSIM 129-
0006)

29. USA Federal Budget
Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/e7b0051a-
a9bb-498f-979e-b097895eb858/

30. Canada Fiscal Management
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/budget-update-wont-have-fiscal-anchor-until-after-crisis-pm-262881/
Trudeau said the cost could have been far worse in the form of massive business closures, and households diving deep into debt to
survive financially.
“COVID is going to be expensive,” he said during the virtual appearance with the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.
“The question is who is best positioned to bear these additional costs, and we don’t feel it’s businesses, we don’t feel it’s ordinary
Canadians.”
He vowed to keep doing whatever is necessary to help workers and businesses make it through the pandemic, but wouldn’t commit
to a fiscal anchor because of ongoing uncertainty about the pandemic.
“It would be premature to be locking things down. But we will certainly talk about the frame and the responsibility that’s
necessary,” he said.
My recap:
I am not disputed the need for the stimulus. The problem is many programs were both poorly conceived and managed -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-management-canada-analysis-and-commentary-october-18-2020

31. Summary
• August has shown promise, but the world economy still has many risks – https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-
is-next-for-the-global-economy-september-2020
• Countries will continue to look at post-covid19 policies including how best to managed their key products.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/modernization-supply-chain-paul-young/
• Cash flow management will become a critical area for companies - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/treasure-management-
better-insight-cash-flow-paul-young/
• Automation/Technology - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-better-support-the-technological-sector
• Reforming government - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/transformation-of-the-public-sector-in-canada or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-management-federal-state-and-local-government-usa-october-2020
• Manufacturing will continue to make change as part revamping their business model -
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/manufacturing-whats-next-paul-young/
• Government policies will take the forefront in areas like forestry management - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/forestry-
management-california-paul-young/
• Government around the world will continue to look at tax fairness - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/california-wealth-
taxation-paul-young/
• Job Quality - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/analysis-of-wages-and-employment