Many risks and threats are impacting the global economy 1. Global Labor Market - https://www.rappler.com/business/ilo-monitor-covid-19-world-work-8th-edition-october-27-2021 2. Supply chain disruption - https://www.ft.com/content/84c2555b-68f0-4654-bb73-d1b995d45bc2 3. Inflation - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-30/three-days-will-reveal-global-alert-level-on-inflation-eco-week 4. Inflation - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/charting-the-global-economy-inflation-builds-in-u-s-and-europe-1.1674336 5. Inflation - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/interest-rates-aren-t-the-only-weapon-in-global-inflation-fight-1.1673191 6. Global stocks - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-markets-global-stocks-dip-155738159.html 7. Commodity - https://markets.ft.com/data/commodities 8. Net zero target - https://www.ft.com/content/58a5379f-bb2a-42ad-8554-002b677a472e 9. IFRS - https://www.responsible-investor.com/articles/ifrs-group-sets-out-agenda-ahead-of-new-sustainability-standards-board 10. Automation - https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2021/11/01/the-8-biggest-business-trends-in-2022/?sh=74c49ca321da 11. Automation - https://min.news/en/tech/c11e635e601edbd40ae07c2d115b0982.html

1. Paul Young CPA CGA
November 1, 2021
WHAT’S NEXT
FOR THE WORLD
ECONOMY –
OCTOBER

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Customer Success Management
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3. Agenda
• Inflation
• GDP / Growth
• Commodities
• Stock Market – December 2020 vs December 2019
• Geopolitical Risks
• Unemployment Rates
• Employment – Canada vs USA
• Growth Areas
• COVID19/Deficit spending
• Debt
• Infrastructure
• Green Economy
• Job Quality Crisis
• Trade and Protectionism
• Audit Committee and Risk
• eCommerce
• Housing / Affordability
• Throne Speech/Canada
• 2020 USA Election
• Supply Chain
• Reporting challenges
• Energy Crisis
• What’s next?

4. Inflation

5. GDP / GROWTH
Source – BNS Economics
BNS_Global
Forecasts_20212010.pdf

6. G7 and GDP
Source – BNS and Moody's

7. GDP
Source - https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/02/stronger-canadian-dollar-edging-canada-into-8th-place-in-world-
gdp.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbigfuture%29 or https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CADUSD/

8. Commodities
Source – BNS and BMO

9. Stock Market - USA
Blog – Stock Market – WE – October 29, 2021
Here is my look at the stock markets - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-up-with-stock-marklet-
october-29-2021

10. Geopolitical Risks
• Geopolitical events are having bigger hit on both the private and public sector
• Eco-Terrorism - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-threat-of-ecoterrorism
• Risk Factors - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/understanding-risks-as-part-of-
development-risk-management-best-practices
• Race for innovation - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/path-to-innovation-for-canada
• 6G - Blog - Dynamically Programmable Wireless 6G - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/blog-dynamically-programmable-wireless-6g-
paul-young/?published=t
Source - https://www.ey.com/en_gl/geostrategy/what-elevated-levels-of-political-risk-mean-for-
business-in-2021
Source - https://economics.td.com/ca-quarterly-
economic-forecast

11. Bmo/Employment
2/11/20XX 11
BMO - USA -
Employment - September 2021.pdf
BMO -Canada
Employment - 202109.pdf

12. Growth Areas
Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/technology/the-top-global-trends-generating-growth-opportunities-from-covid-19-261195/
• More support for small businesses including startups -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/survival-or-
collapse-small-business
• Technology sector -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-better-
support-the-technological-sector
• Automation -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-next-for-
automation-238371946
• Vertical farming -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/farming-in-
canada-august-2020
• Fish and other farming techniques -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/aquaculture-
fish-farming-and-harvesting-analysis
• Technology and the Environment -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/climate-
change-what-can-be-done
• 3D Printing -
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/3d-printing-
what-is-next-january-2021

13. COVID19 / Deficit Spending
Source - https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19 or
https://www.csis.org/analysis/breaking-down-g20-covid-19-fiscal-response-may-2020-update
• Countries need to start pulling back their deficit spending as
part of the recovery
• There should be focus on many areas like getting goods to
market - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-
best-to-get-goods-to-market and reforming of government -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/analysis-
efficiency-and-effective-government-canada-and-the-world
• Programs that supported income loss should be scale back as
part of supporting re-entry back into workforce -
https://globalnews.ca/news/7186683/quebec-business-
owner-workers-cerb/
• More emphasis will be required on training and education -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/human-capital-
management-skills-and-education
• IMF - https://in.reuters.com/article/us-imf-economy/imf-
tells-g20-countries-to-keep-spending-on-covid-19-crisis-
idUSKBN27I1X7
• Canada https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxpVughNIGg
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/path-forward-for-
canada-budget-2021 - Canada budget did little to fix issues
with competitiveness or supply chain or infrastructure

14. COVID19 – Vaccine Rollout
Source - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=latest&region=World or
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis.html
Blog – Geopolitics Risks and Events – Virus and Disease Management
The world continues to face many challenges including various geopolitical risks and events
covid19-daily-monito
r_20212910.pdf
Top Risks for
2022.pdf
Deloitte Global
Weekly - 20212910.pdf
Blog – Geopolitical – Pandemics and Viruses Management – October 29, 2021 –
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/geopolitical-eventscovid19canada-
and-the-world-october-29-2021

15. Debt
• Consumer, government and business debt levels could impact the recover
due to cash flow issues.
Blog:
• In the past, there have been concerns about debt, especially if interest rates
were to rise. Interest rates are still an issue. The bigger issue is cash flow
with govt, business, and personal. Sales and wages could see significant
shrinkage as part of the COVID19 recovery.
• My latest work on debt - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/debt-issues-
global-debt-crisis-analysis-and-commentary-243199347

16. Infrastructure
• Countries around the world can help with the post recovery by investing in
infrastructure
Blog:
• “Two critical elements in analyzing infrastructure projects are often overlooked: the true
cost of capital and long-term maintenance
expenses.” https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-infrastructure-analysis-
of-policy
• Re-setting infrastructure spending - https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/capital-
projects-and-infrastructure/our-insights/resetting-capital-spending-in-the-wake-of-
covid-19
• Here is my work on infrastructure
• Canada - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/infrastructure-gap-canada-and-the-world
• The United States - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/infrastructure-analysis-the-united-
states

17. Throne Speech / Canada
Canada GDP has been struggling since 2018 despite $15B deficits (pre-
COVID19):
• 2016 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2016-november-2016-gdp-gross-domestic-product-canada
• Oct/19 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-growth-and-the-major-issues-facing-global-gdp
• Dec/20 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/scorecard-and-gdp-canada-december-2020-and-november-
2020

18. United States / Biden
United States has many issues facing their country
- Income inequality
- Job Quality
- Tax fairness
- Regional disparity
- Economic growth
- Broken legal system
- Broken education and healthcare system
- Efficient and Effective government
- The international role of the United States
Source – TD Economics
Here is a brief look at the United States -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/scorecard-united-
states-april-2021-and-may-2021

19. Green Economy
Source - https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/global-clean-energy-investment-research/
• Better balanced between the environment and the
economy -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-
global-emissions-and-climate-change
• Cost of electricity is becoming a big issue for
countries
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/repo
rt-electricity-analysis-canada-and-the-world
• Circular Economy –
• Tougher environmental laws are required for
waste management
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/
how-to-best-support-a-circular-economy
• Green Economy and Emissions
• Many govts around the world are pushing the
green economy as part of the post-covid19
recovery -
http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/themes/g
reen-recovery or
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/glo
bal-emissions-and-climate-change-canada-and-
the-world

20. Job Crisis
Source - https://www.oecd.org/employment-outlook/

21. Trade and Protectionism
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/exporting-and-importing/trade-body-rules-eu-can-put-tariffs-on-us4b-of-
u-s-goods-262170/
• “International arbitrators said Oct. 13 that the European Union can impose tariffs and other penalties on up to
US$4 billion worth of U.S. goods and services over illegal American support for plane maker Boeing. The move further
sours transatlantic ties at a time when the coronavirus has doused trade and savaged economies.”
• More work needs to be done by all countries to fix trade related issues
• Canada and Trade - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/merchandise-trade-canada-august-2020
• USA and Trade - https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3105354/us-election-chinas-
trade-gap-united-states-was-43-cent-bigger
• China and Trade - https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/935322859/asia-pacific-allies-sign-huge-trade-deal-
with-china-while-u-s-sits-it-out
• Reforming the WTO - https://www.chinabusinessreview.com/competing-wto-reform-agendas-and-the-
contest-for-the-next-director-general/
• Here is my work on WTO and Trade Policies - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/is-the-world-heading-to-
more-protectionism-november-2017

22. Audit Committees and Risk Mitigation
Audit committees will have fuller plates than usual in the coming year, according to Big Four firm KPMG, managing agendas packed with new risk
management responsibilities amid the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and other crises of 2020.
In a recent report, KPMG’s Board Leadership center identified seven key issues that audit committees will be grappling with. To start, the report
noted than more than 60 percent of audit committee members surveyed said that COVID-19 has prompted them to reassess the scope of their
agenda and their risk management responsibilities.
“Keeping the audit committee’s agenda focused will require vigilance,” the report noted. “Virtually all companies will continue to deal with
significant disruption and uncertainty … . Does the audit committee have the time and expertise to oversee the major risks now on its plate?”
Top 7 Risk Areas
1. Look at Audit Committee Agenda and workload
2. Monitor the financial reporting & disclosure impacts of COVID-19 on the company’s filings
3. Reinforce audit quality & understand the impact of COVID-19 on the external audit process
4. Work with management to reassess & and oversee the scope & quality of the company’s ESG/Sustainability reports & disclosures
5. Understand how technology is impacting the finance organization’s talent, efficiency, and value-add
6. Help ensure that internal audit remains focused on the critical risks including risks posed by COVOD19 and other geo-political events
7. Sharpen the focus on the company’s ethics, compliance, and whistle-blower programs, recognizing the increased pressure on employees
Here is my blog on how to streamline reporting including mitigation of risk - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/covid-
other-geo-political-disclosures-extra-risks-top-paul-young/?published=t

23. eCommerce
1. Delivery becomes the new normal - Delivery services have become all the rage. The likes of Uber Eats, GrubHub and Instacart have fundamentally
changed the way people get restaurant food or receive grocery store deliveries
2. Alternative business models ring up gains - Once upon a time, retailers sold products to customers. But digital technology is driving fundamental
changes to the old-fashioned transactional model and making consumers more comfortable with paying for value over time. A growing array of brands
are making products available on a subscription basis. Some retailers are exploring ways to use things like smart speakers and IoT to replenish items
automatically.
3. Fulfillment hubs eclipse storefronts - Shifts in consumer behavior will have repercussions in 2021. As leased storefronts in malls underperform due to a
lack of foot traffic, retailers are looking to convert them into fulfillment hubs. There’s remarkable synergy in using these spaces for ecommerce—in
some cases, transforming them into mini-distribution centers—particularly when paired with last-mile delivery services. Amazon has already begun to
eye this model to expand its footprint and same-day delivery network further. It has reportedly engaged in talks with mall operators to take over empty
space as retailers like Sears and J.C. Penney vacate
4. New store designs appear - Despite a massive shift to ecommerce, physical stores are not going away anytime soon. They are just going through a
corresponding transformation. Several prominent retailers focus on blending online and in-store shopping, emphasizing creating a more engaging and
socially distanced shopping experience. For instance, Walmart recently grabbed headlines when it announced that it would overhaul 200 of its
supercenters into airport-inspired stores, complete with more prominent signage, contactless checkout, and other innovations.
5. Online gets personal - Video calls have already gone mainstream in the business world. People see each other, share screens and exchange information.
Retailers are also beginning to recognize the value of video chat as a consultation and sales tool. Whether a consumer is buying a car, furniture, or
upscale clothing, why not offer an option of connecting to a sales associate or product expert whenever it is convenient? This can be after work, on the
weekend, even late at night.
1. Source - https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2020/11/05/5-predictions-how-things-will-change-for-retailers-in-2021/
Areas of focus
Omni Channels - https://www.shopify.ca/retail/omnichannel-trends
Sales Tax / eCommerce https://www.avalara.com/us/en/blog/2020/11/rapid-rise-of-online-sales-could-trigger-new-sales-tax-collection-requirements-for-
sellers.html
Here is my work on eCommerce - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/ecommerce-what-is-next

24. Blog – Housing Affordability
Homelessness is a global challenge. The United Nations Human Settlements Program estimates that 1.6 billion
people live in inadequate housing, and the best data available suggest that more than 100 million people have no
housing at all. Homelessness is growing in many parts of the world, occurs in all nations, and has severe
negative impacts on individuals and on communities.
Homelessness is a complex issue, sitting at the intersection of public health, housing affordability, domestic
violence, mental illness, substance misuse, urbanization, racial and gender discrimination, infrastructure, and
unemployment. The interplay between these elements is expressed in a host of ways depending upon local
context. Levels of homelessness rise and fall dependent on shifts in, and changes to, any one of the elements.
But there is good news: this problem can be solved. Countries and cities across the world have seen steep
reductions in homelessness, and some have ended it outright. With the right mix of program interventions, well-
coordinated local systems, and effective policy, many countries have proved that homelessness can be
successfully addressed. Sources - https://thefulcrum.ca/opinions/letter-to-the-editor-why-homelessness-is-
rarely-a-major-topic-during-election-campaigns/ or https://ighomelessness.org/about-us/
My work: https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/housing-and-homelessness-canada-and-the-world-july-2021

25. Supply Chain
Chaos/Supply Chain
Shipping container shortages in Asia, traffic jams at ports, limited availability of dockworkers and truck
drivers from Southern California to Singapore, higher shipping prices—all are part of a now-stretched supply
chain due to the pandemic, according to a recent New York Times report. What is the impact on rail?
“‘I’ve never seen anything like this,’” Lars Mikael Jensen, head of Global Ocean Network at A.P. Moller-Maersk,
the world’s largest shipping company, told The New York Times, which included his quote in the headline of a March
7 feature, “‘I’ve Never Seen Anything Like This’: Chaos Strikes Global Shipping.”
https://www.railwayage.com/intermodal/does-chaos-rule-the-global-supply-chain/
My work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-reshore-supply-chain-management-244371640
Continue to play key role with the rise of inflation around the globe.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-going-on-with-commodity-prices

26. ESG Reporting
SEC may require climate risk disclosures in expanded 10-Ks: Gensler
• Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler has asked agency staff to submit a proposal for
mandatory climate risk disclosures for consideration by the end of 2021. Such reports may be required in an
expanded Form 10-K and describe a company’s direct and indirect carbon emissions, including those by suppliers
and partners in its “value chain.”
• Companies may be required to disclose both qualitative and quantitative details, including how they manage
climate-related risks and opportunities in day-to-day operations and in broad strategy, Gensler said Wednesday.
They may also need to report on metrics such as greenhouse gas emissions, financial impacts of climate change
and progress towards climate-related goals.
• “Today, investors increasingly want to understand the climate risks of the companies whose stock they own or
might buy,” Gensler said in remarks during a webinar. “Investors are looking for consistent, comparable, and
decision-useful disclosures so they can put their money in companies that fit their needs.”
• Source - https://www.cfodive.com/news/sec-may-require-climate-risk-disclosures-expanded-10-ks-
gensler/604084/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202021-07-
29%20CFO%20Dive%20%5Bissue:35724%5D&utm_term=CFO%20Dive
Here is my latest presentation on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) reporting -
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_box-activity-6822831792043769856-T0Fe

27. Reporting Challenges for both the Public and
Private Sectors
Blog – Close, consolidate, and reporting cycle – What is next for both Public and Private sector Reporting:
Both the public and private sector continue to face reporting challenges, especially with
more demands by internal and external users of their financial statements. Here is my
latest work on the close, consolidate, and reporting cycle -
https://ibm.box.com/s/i7efp948qvb5l8bt96y8sigsup8yes2u

28. Energy Crisis
Australia exported 3-13 million tons per month of coal to China in 2020. If China needs 50 million tons per month
that is rapid increase in coal production. It is unclear in China and Australia would be able to ramp to meet the
demand. China is already in a shortage of perhaps 50 million tons per month.
If there is a rapid surge in coal importing to China, there could be overbidding that causes shortages for other Asian
countries. This will also make the supply chain problems even worse.
Prioritizing heating over electricity means more factory shutdowns.
Prioritizing heating coal imports over other supply chain means that the 200 ships waiting to get unloaded get
bumped back at the ports for hundreds of coal ships.
China having coal production problems is tough because building other sources of electricity and heating will take
years. Especially if China wants to get beyond current levels to support 6% per year GDP growth.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/10/173364.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A
+blogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbigfuture%29
This ties nicely to my work on energy - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/world-heading-energy-crisis-paul-young/

29. What’s next
• The world has shown there were issues with their various responses to pandemic. All levels of government should have audited crisis and risk
management reports - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/crisis-management-how-best-to-managed-a-crisis
• More balance between the economy and GDP - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/why-do-politicians-play-games-with-the-environment
• More emphasis on supply chain including local solutions - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-best-to-reshore-supply-chains
• Reforming taxation as part of overall tax fairness - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/are-wealth-tax-a-good-idea
• Reforming the size of government – https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-does-the-world-transform-healthcare-238832381
• Stop pushing guarantee income and start working on policies that will support better jobs - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/policy-
analysis-guarantee-income
• Innovative solutions when it comes to upgrading and/or building new infrastructure - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-
infrastructure-analysis-of-policy
• Fixing the systemic issues with housing - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/housing-market-affordability-and-costing-canada-
september-2019
• Reforming global organizations like WHO and WTO - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/reforming-both-the-united-nations-and-who or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-global-trade-barriers-and-protection-wto-canada-september-2019
• Better urban planning decisions including rural and urban strategies - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/urban-and-rural-planning-
whats-next-236315321
• Working together to reduce geo-political issues - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/dealing-with-geopoltical-risk
• Reforming accounting and audit as way to provide more oversight into financial performance of businesses and the government -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/internal-audit-and-performance-base-auditing
• Vaccine production and distribution - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

30. Other Sources
• If you like to learn
more about trade
and/or other
subjects as part of
your professional
learning and
development then
feel free to review
my material on
https://www.udem
y.com/ (search Paul
Young CPA CGA