Four "truths" of IT are still true enough to yield ROI by pursuing their further development -- but you'll never realize how much you left on the table by failing to appreciate their transformation in a massively connected world.

1. Inside Out & Upside Down
Four IT ‘Truths’ Not to Trust – Because They Don’t Lead to the Future That’s Now
Peter Coffee
VP for Strategic Research
pcoffee@salesforce.com
@petercoffee

2. We Know What We Know. Don’t We?
​Moore’s Law: things get 2x faster/cheaper every 18 months.
​ Substantially wrong
​Growing speed/falling cost of connection  more data collection.
​ Sometimes wrong
​Databases are relations among rectangular tables (rows & columns).
​ Increasingly wrong
​Applications automate actions on data enabled by user interface.
​ Dangerously wrong

3. We Know What We Know. Don’t We?
​Moore was a hardware guy.

4. We Know What We Know. Don’t We?
​Moore was a hardware guy.
​It’s what we do with the transistors
that matters now.
“In the second quarter of 2016, Intel will
release the Broadwell-EX chips with 24
cores plus HyperThreading, and support
for four channels of DDR4 memory
per CPU.” – itworld.com

5. In Case It’s News, There’s a Data Thing Going On

6. “More, Faster, Cheaper” is Not Sufficiently Different
​It’s not about the MIPS
(millions of instructions/sec.)
​It’s about the BORPS
(billions of records/second)
​Data-intensive systems have
many points of failure and
must be designed for resilience
​Say hello to MapReduce,
Hadoop, HPCC, Thor and Roxie
glennlockwood.com

7. Recognition, Mining and Synthesis
“Intel is helping to change our view
of sports with two new
technologies: Curie and freeD.
“If you were watching Super Bowl
50, then you've seen freeD in
action. When the offense scored a
touchdown, CBS showed a 360
shot of the play, letting you see
the TD from virtually any angle.
“Instead of a capturing a 2D pixel,
the cameras send information
back to Intel's data center, which
will transform the captured
images into a 3D ‘voxel’…”
- cnn.com, February 2016

8. We Know What We Know. Don’t We?
​Moore’s Law: things get 2x faster/cheaper every 18 months.
​ Substantially wrong
​Connection is expensive and slow. Processing should be close to data.
​ Sometimes wrong

9. • Reflex arc jerks finger away from
hot pipe before brain receives
the signal of pain.
Simple Things, Quickly, Need Nearby Decision and Action

10. • Reflex arc jerks finger away from
hot pipe before brain receives
the signal of pain. Brain says, “I
should put ice on that.”
Mid-Complexity, Isolated Actions: Next Level Up

11. • Reflex arc jerks finger away from
hot pipe before brain receives
the signal of pain. Brain says, “I
should put ice on that” – then
thinks, “That should not be that
hot, I’m filing a ticket with
maintenance.”
• Immediate local action; rapid
analysis and follow-up;
collaborative reporting and
remediation
• Our networks of things also need
stratified processing & response
Aggregation, Analysis, Learning, Proaction: Global Networks

12. Perhaps we should stop saying “‘Internet’ of Things”
“The Internet” is not “the Web,” which is defined by HTTP…
…but “the Internet” does have a specific meaning: the
routing of TCP/IP packets by DNS.
MQTT is a machine-to-machine (M2M)/“Internet of
Things” connectivity protocol: extremely lightweight
publish/subscribe messaging, useful where small code
footprint required and/or bandwidth at a premium.
UDP, DTLS, DDS, Weightless…and many other* options
Your body doesn’t have just one messaging
system. Neither will the IoT.
* postscapes.com/internet-of-things-protocols

13. Mash-ups
from Web &
AppExchange
Native Desktop
Connectors
Integration Tools
AppExchange Apps
ERP
Any System
Finance
Systems of Record
Experience DesignClouds of Computation, Relationship,
and Transaction
Salesforce
Connected Devices and Processes
Cooperation, but Differentiation: Two Classes of Cloud
Clouds of Measurement,
Notification and Action

14. Process Quality Manager (PQM)
Usage-based Services
The Tool Becomes the Endpoint of the Intelligent Process

15. Process Quality Manager (PQM)
Usage-based Services
The Tool Becomes the Endpoint of the Intelligent Process

16. Process Quality Manager (PQM)
Usage-based Services
The Tool Becomes the Endpoint of the Intelligent Process

17. The two key features of Snapdragon
2100 are reduction in size and
increase in power efficiency.
• 30% smaller than Snapdragon 400
• Uses 25% less power
• Integrated, low power sensor hub
• Four Cortex-A7 cores at max 1.2 GHz
• Adreno 304 GPU for OpenGL ES 3.0
• Wirelessly tethered
• Bluetooth
• Wi-Fi
• Connected
• 4G/LTE
• 3G
www.androidauthority.com/snapdragon-wear-2100-672774
Progress in Core Technology Continues to Accelerate

18. This is Acceleration, Not Saturation
“This has to level off” “That’s too conservative” “You’re both clueless”

19. Every Device Connected & Intelligent
“We built a connected freezer
with the Salesforce1
Platform so we can keep in
touch with researchers in
real time and better
anticipate their needs. Now
we can better support them
to solve their problems.”
New England Biolabs/Xively
http://www.salesforce.com/customers/stories/new-england-biolabs.jsp

20. It Stops Being “Wearable Tech”: It’s Just What We Wear
“Truck drivers at Rio Tinto's coal
mines in Hunter Valley, Australia,
for example have been using
a device called ‘SmartCap’ which
looks like a regular baseball
cap but has sensors to detect the
alertness.
“It provides an early warning for
when a driver is approaching a
‘microsleep,’ designed to reduce
fatigue-related accidents.”
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-07/wearable-technology-creeps-into-the-workplace

21. It Goes Beyond Smart Devices…to a Smart World

22. We Know What We Know. Don’t We?
​Moore’s Law: things get 2x faster/cheaper every 18 months.
​ Substantially wrong
​Connection is expensive and slow. Processing should be close to data.
​ Sometimes wrong
​Databases are relations among rectangular tables (rows & columns).
​ Increasingly wrong

23. You Can Work Hard Now, or Crunch Harder Later
Jim R. Wilson at pragprog.com

24. The Whole Idea of a Database Is Up for Grabs
“Blockchain is a technology for a new
generation of transactional applications
that establishes trust, accountability
and transparency while streamlining
business processes. We can re-imagine
the world's most fundamental business
interactions and open the door to invent
new styles of digital interactions…to
vastly reduce the cost and complexity
of cross-enterprise business processes.
“The distributed ledger makes it easier to
create cost-efficient business networks
where virtually anything of value can be
tracked and traded—without requiring a
central point of control.”

25. The Whole Idea of a Database Is Up for Grabs
“Blockchains are the latest example of unexpected
fruits of cryptography. Mathematical scrambling
is used to boil down an original piece of
information into a code, known as a hash. Any
attempt to tamper with any part of the
blockchain is apparent immediately—because
the new hash will not match the old ones.
“In this way a science that keeps information
secret (vital for encrypting messages and online
shopping and banking) is, paradoxically, also a
tool for open dealing.”
- The Economist, October 2015

26. We Know What We Know. Don’t We?
​Moore’s Law: things get 2x faster/cheaper every 18 months.
​ Substantially wrong
​Connection is expensive and slow. Processing should be close to data.
​ Sometimes wrong
​Databases are relations among rectangular tables (rows & columns).
​ Increasingly wrong
​Applications automate actions on data enabled by user interface.
​ Dangerously wrong

27. The “Search” feature tells
you something’s wrong
Tomorrow’s “app”
extends a lexicon of APIs
Any dedicated UI is just a
“serving suggestion”
A Silo in Your Hand…is Still a Silo

28. Think Through “the App”…to “the Experience”
dzone.com/articles/android-60-marshmallow-and-ios-9

29. Think Through “the App”…to “the Experience”
blog.xamarin.com/expand-your-apps-reach-with-googles-app-invites/
dzone.com/articles/android-60-marshmallow-and-ios-9

30. Think Through “the App”…to “the Experience”
blog.xamarin.com/expand-your-apps-reach-with-googles-app-invites/
dzone.com/articles/android-60-marshmallow-and-ios-9

31. Think Through “the App”…to “the Experience”
blog.xamarin.com/expand-your-apps-reach-with-googles-app-invites/
dzone.com/articles/android-60-marshmallow-and-ios-9

32. Between 1991 and 2005, over $7 billion was
invested by Intel and computer manufacturers in
advertising that carried the Intel Inside® logo. Intel
turned a chip into a brand and that brand into
billions in added sales.
In 1991, before the start of the "Intel inside"
branding program, Intel's market capitalization was
about $10 billion. In 2003: $155 billion.
Around 70% of home PC buyers and 85% of
business buyers state a preference for Intel, saying
they will pay a premium for the security and peace-
of-mind offered by the brand.
Consider the implications of “[Your Brand] Inside”

33. Any “UI” May Soon Seem Quaint
Conversational commerce largely pertains to
utilizing chat, messaging, or other natural
language interfaces (i.e. voice) to interact
with people, brands, or services and bots
that heretofore have had no real place in
the bidirectional, asynchronous messaging
context. The net result is that you and I will
be talking to brands and companies over
Facebook Messenger, WhatsApp, Telegram,
Slack, and elsewhere before year’s end.
- Chris Messina

34. It’s time for conversational commerce

35. When Curves Cross, “The Right Thing” Changes
​ From IBM PC in 1981 to HP 6305 (most popular desktop) in 2015
• 4.77 MHz to 3.6 GHz: Compute speed has risen ~20% per year
• 64K to 4 GB: Memory has surged ~40% per year
• 160K to 500 GB: Mass storage tsunami ~50% per year
​ Desktop systems are burdened with too much state
• File system technology has not addressed new needs
• People can’t find stuff
• People keep redundant and inconsistent copies of stuff
• Governance falls short of rising demands
• People lose stuff
• People share stuff in unknown, unsafe, unauthorized ways
​ We didn’t build for where we wound up going
• 300 bps to 50 Mbps: Connectivity has grown by ~45% per year

36. Everyday Thinking Fails to Grasp Exponential Change

37. Everyday Thinking Fails to Grasp Exponential Change

38. Everyday Thinking Fails to Grasp Exponential Change

39. Everyday Thinking Fails to Grasp Exponential Change

40. ​Moore’s Law: things get 2x faster/cheaper every 18 months.
​ Substantially wrong
​Connection is expensive and slow. Processing should be close to data.
​ Sometimes wrong
​Databases are relations among rectangular tables (rows & columns).
​ Increasingly wrong
​Applications automate actions on data enabled by user interface.
​ Dangerously wrong
We Know What We Know. Don’t We?

41. ​It’s not just that “computers” will keep getting faster
​ It’s that every object & environment will be more computational
​It’s not just that data collection will get faster, cheaper, & more global
​ It’s that we can push knowledge out to distributed intelligence
​It’s not just that databases, as we know them, will get bigger
​ It’s that we can share truths and ask unanticipated questions
​It’s not building “applications” more quickly to run anywhere
​ It’s giving people a richer experience…everywhere
We Know What We Need To Do Now

42. “Platform” is a strategy – not a procurement choice
Platform
CompetitorsCustomer
Components Utilities
Value Added:
Innovation
Differentiation
Friction Reduced:
Abstraction
Commodification

43. Thank you
Peter Coffee
VP for Strategic Research
pcoffee@salesforce.com
@petercoffee
in/petercoffee
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