A presentation of this paper: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjds/s13688-014-0029-6

2. Outbreak R0
Boston, USA (1721) 4.3
Burford (1758) 3.4
Chester (1774) 5.8
Warrington (1773) 4.0-5.3
Paris, France (1766) 4-5
London (1836-1870) ∼ 5
Kosovo (1972) 10.8
Europe (1958-1973) 10-11

3. Our dataset
- 10 years
- 308,102 patients
- 8,507 wards
- 3,185,710 links
- 1,261 positive MRSA cases
- 21 strains

5. 0 1000 2000
time, t (days)
0
1
2
3
numberofnodes,N×103
4
5
6
7
8

6. 0
1
2
3
0 1000 2000
time, t (days)
numberoflinks,M×106

7. –7
–6
–5
–3
0.1
10
10
–4
10
10
10–2
probabilitydensity,p(kin)
10
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
in-degree, kin

8. –1000
–500
0
500
1000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
in-degree, kin
kout–kin

9. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1 102
103
105
104
in-degree, k in
–4
×10
relativeaverageprevalence,P

10. 104
103
102
10–6
10–5
10–4
10–3
10–2
10–1
1 1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
in-degree
fractionofinfectedwards
prevalenceininfectedwards

11. 0.3
0.35
0.4
50 100–50 0–100
coefficientofdetermination,R2
∆t (days)
outdegee PageRank betweenness weighted betweenness

12. 1
10
100
1 10 100
1000
number of infected individuals
timeofprecenseindata(days)

13. 1
10
100
1 10 100
1000
number of infected individuals
timeofprecenseindata(days)

14. 1
10
100
1000
1 10 100
number of infected individuals
numberofinfectedwards

15. 25
50
75
100
–200 –100 100 2000
0
t (days)
percentagehospitalized

16. infected
control
950
1000
1050
1100
–200 –100 0 100 200
averageout-degree
t (days)

17. Summary
- Even though the hospital system is
hierarchically organized, the ward
network is too random to predict
risk wards efficiently.
- In-flow better predictor than static
measures.
- There is a detectable response—
patients move to low-degree wards.