SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  45
Island Economics
Cultures and how to see the world
accurately
Envy and victims = economic and personal
vitality destroyers
Forecasting and scenario planning
 Experts & Dummies
Ethics, sustainability and virtue
 Business Values
Discussion Outline
Island Economics
Builder
Island Economics
Healer
Island Economics
Farmer
Island Economics
Philosopher, Poet, Artist Sage
Island Economics
Community
We all live in a Yellow Submarine
Spiral Dynamics
A theory of human development
Human nature is not fixed
People will adapt to their
environment when forced by life
conditions by constructing a new
model of the world.
Cultural DNA
Spiral Dynamics
Memes & DNA
• Systems of values
• Apply to individuals and cultures
• Negative and positive
• Each new system modifies or
builds on the previous
Stage/Wave Color Code Popular Name Thinking
Cultural manifestations
and personal displays
8 Turquoise Wholeview Holistic
collective individualism;
cosmic spirituality; earth
changes
7 Yellow FlexFlow Ecological
natural systems;
self-principle; multiple
realities; knowledge
6 Green Human Bond Consensus
egalitarian; feelings;
authentic; sharing; caring
;community
5 Orange StriveDrive Strategic
materialistic;
consumerism; success;
image; status; growth
4 Blue TruthForce Authority
meaning; discipline;
traditions morality; rules;
lives for later
3 Red PowerGods Egocentric
gratification; glitz;
conquest; action;
impulsive; lives for now
2 Purple KinSpirits Animistic
rites; rituals; taboos;
superstitions; tribes;
folk ways & lore
1 Beige Survival Sense Instinctive
food; water; procreation;
warmth; protection;
stays alive
Source: Don Beck Ph.D
Spiral Dynamics’ Takeaways
• We make mistakes as people, companies and groups
when we think people are like us.
• We need to meet people at their level – not ours.
• Zen training = we can see what is real when we quit
judging and saying “this is GOOD - this is Bad - this is
NEUTRAL & this is… fill in the blank.
• Most consensus, democratic or group systems are
reactive systems not proactive.
• Bottom line is everything connects & economics is
about people in action not money in action.
Forecasting and Scenarios
Stand in the Future
3 Same Subject Experts
Forecasting and Scenarios
Stand in the Future
3 Experts and a Dummy
Forecasting and Scenarios
Stand in the Future
3 Experts and an Artist
Simplicity & Complexity
• Complex problems require
complex solutions
• We make mistakes when we over-
simplify complex problems
Simplicity & Complexity
• Complex problems require
complex solutions
Problem; Need sustainable economy that provides Jobs
Problem; War
Problem; Starvation
Problem; Ignorance (root)
“Just be ethical” & “Just Love More”
What causes a Financial Crisis?
What Causes a Financial
Opportunity/Crisis?
People will rationally “binge”
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be
seen that they go mad in herds, while they only
recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
– Charles Mackay
“Irrational Exuberance” –Alan Greenspan
Cycles Happen
• Financial meltdowns are a systematic and
normal dysfunction of government influence,
greed, fear, and are normal in our world.
Tulip mania – 1620
Mississippi Company France 1719/1720 & John Law
South Sea Company London 1711/1720
Wall Street 1929
Junk bonds 1980s
Dot.coms/telecom 1990s
Sub-prime mortgages/CDOs
People Make Mistakes
What Causes a Financial Crisis?
Mis-pricing of risk
MPT (Modern portfolio theory)
Increases in real risk are not captured in nominal
market prices
Asset prices become irrational
Finance 101
• Present value should reflect the risk of actually
receiving future income
• Capital value is a function of present and
future income!
• Misjudgments about future income distort
present capital values (Manias/Emotion,
squinter problem)
Finance 1001
We want to Believe!
• A person will not wish to know something, if
knowing that something will cost him or her.
Coal and Global Warming
Meat eating and Environmentalism/Global Warming
Driving “Hummers”
Not walking/riding bike
Eating Junk food – other stuff…
Free money=distortions
• In financial bubbles, mis-pricing is sustained by
infusions of debt
• Higher and higher asset values are supported by
borrowed funds
• Excess liquidity – based on future promises to pay –
transforms investment into speculation; prudence
loses out to greed; illusion trumps reality (beliefs VS
truth)– for a time
Systems are reactive
World Economic regulations, contracts, laws and “Order
enhancers” have inadequate pro-active mechanisms to
prevent financial crises
[bureaucratic /boards]
Bottom line is: Groups tend to be reactive
Someone fell off the Empire state building….
What is the fair value of an
investment in business?
Quality Income Stream
High future income
Priced right
Good Corporate Value
(Warren Buffet would buy it)
Today where does most corporate
value come from?
Intangible Assets!
Intangible value 3-4-14
Microsoft: Market value: $318 billion
Balance sheet assets: ~45%%
Goodwill/intangibles: 55%
Starbucks: Market value: $54 billion
Balance sheet assets: 20%
Goodwill/intangibles: 80%
Facebook Market value: $173 billion
Balance sheet assets: ~10%%
Goodwill/intangibles: 90%
Growing Importance of
Intangible Wealth
Change in U.S. Employment:
Tangible sector (manufacturing, construction, natural resources, real
estate, wholesale and retail, transportation and warehousing)
= job losses
Intangible sector (education, health care, computer system design,
finance and insurance, scientific research, etc.)
= job gains
Valuation & Sustainability
Intangible Assets = Stakeholder Relationships
(are the relationships sustainably nurtured and part of culture)
Create value thru growing relationships with…
Customers
Employees
Owners/Investors
Suppliers
Competition (Strategic relationship)
Community
How Do Companies Create
(Intangible) Value?
• The Good
• The Bad
• The Ugly
The Good
(Virtue Capitalism)
Manage Risk
Be Opportunity seeking
Constantly reassess business practices
Through 1)systems and culture
2)Best practice adoption
Optimize Stakeholder Benefits as goal
A culture where Virtue matters
Transparency (I am what I am-no hiding anymore)
The Bad
Brute Capitalism, Crony Capitalism
 Feed Shareholders,& Abuse Stakeholders
 Feed Mangers & Abuse shareholders and everyone else
 Hire slaves, compete only on pricing/low costs
 abusing market power
 Take the money and run: short term-ism
 Always with a smile of course 
Unsustainable values & practices= Eventual Failure
The Ugly
(Punting on the trading floor)
No net wealth creation
(Rob Peter to pay Paul)
Exploiting the emotion & Irrational Exuberance
(Market traders/short term-ism)
Exploiting emotions = False Valuations
(Enron: Ponzi Scheme; sub prime mortgages, CDOs, CDSs,
50,000 dogs)
Encourage unsustainable pricing of securities
(CDOs, CDSs, government bonds, currencies)
INEVITABLE FINANCIAL MELTDOWN
The Ugly
Reality=life goes on
Unsustainable trends are
unsustainable…
Herbert Stein
Reality=life goes on
Net wealth creation will happen
Wealth transfer will happen
Irrational Exuberance will happen
False Valuations will happen
So what do you do about it?
Use your head and heart & Think!
Has your brain ever hurt from thinking?
Summary
Island Economics= everything connects
Cultures = meet people at their culture
Scenarios =Experts, dummies and Artists
Ethics, sustainability and virtue matter
Summary
Complex problems require complex solutions
People won’t learn the truth if it could hurt them
(Duh!)
Beliefs are more powerful than truth. Emotions
Manias happen markets are cyclical. Emotions
Life goes on, Relax and enjoy!
Zen Master gets sick (story)
suffering exists
We suffer because we grasp and obsess;
We can do something about suffering;
We can live a spiritual life.
Neither shall they say, Lo here! or,
lo there! for, behold, the kingdom
of God is within you. Luke 17:21
“Peace comes from Within;
DO not seek it without.” Buddha
If you look at the Peacemakers
that we know from history and
today; Joan of Arc, David,
Gandhi, Dalai lama, Mother
Theresa, M. L. King Jr., Nelson
Mandela, Desmond Tutu,
St. Francis, Fethullah Gulen,
Malala Yousafzai, they were
willing to risk their lives, their
social comforts and acceptance to
pursuit virtue-infused ideals.
7 Social Sins
Wealth without Work
Pleasure without Conscience
Knowledge without Character
Commerce without Morality
Science without Humanity
Worship without Sacrifice
Politics without Principle
– Mahatma Gandhi
8th sin added by
Arun Gandhi, his grandson:
Rights without Responsibilities
I grew up among the Sages.
All my life I listened to their words.
Yet I have found nothing better than silence.
Study is not the goal, doing is.
Do not mistake “talk” for “action.”
Pity fills no stomach.
Compassion builds no house.
Understanding is not yet justice.
Whoever multiplies words causes confusion.
The truth that can be spoken
Is not the Ultimate Truth.
Ultimate Truth is wordless,
the silence within the silence.
More than the absence of speech,
More than the absence of words,
Ultimate Truth is the seamless being-in-place
that comes with attending to Reality.
—Shimon ben Gamliel
Questions & Thank You

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Ethics Hogan Taylor December 12, 2012
Ethics Hogan Taylor December 12, 2012Ethics Hogan Taylor December 12, 2012
Ethics Hogan Taylor December 12, 2012
ProfessorUrich
 
Emotional Intelligence (EI)
Emotional Intelligence (EI)Emotional Intelligence (EI)
Emotional Intelligence (EI)
Nitin Kanaujia
 

Tendances (18)

Ethics Awareness, First Oklahoma Bank
Ethics Awareness, First Oklahoma BankEthics Awareness, First Oklahoma Bank
Ethics Awareness, First Oklahoma Bank
 
Emotions really are an asset
Emotions really are an assetEmotions really are an asset
Emotions really are an asset
 
075 171011 bookclub_Road less traveled - nature of power
075 171011 bookclub_Road less traveled - nature of power075 171011 bookclub_Road less traveled - nature of power
075 171011 bookclub_Road less traveled - nature of power
 
Ethics Hogan Taylor December 12, 2012
Ethics Hogan Taylor December 12, 2012Ethics Hogan Taylor December 12, 2012
Ethics Hogan Taylor December 12, 2012
 
Turning Obstacles Into Opportunities
Turning Obstacles Into OpportunitiesTurning Obstacles Into Opportunities
Turning Obstacles Into Opportunities
 
Human side of The Project Economy - PMI Ghana Oct 2020
Human side of The Project Economy - PMI Ghana Oct 2020Human side of The Project Economy - PMI Ghana Oct 2020
Human side of The Project Economy - PMI Ghana Oct 2020
 
What's up with men? megan de beyer psychologist
What's up with men? megan de beyer psychologist What's up with men? megan de beyer psychologist
What's up with men? megan de beyer psychologist
 
Work Personality
Work PersonalityWork Personality
Work Personality
 
Emotional Intelligence (EI)
Emotional Intelligence (EI)Emotional Intelligence (EI)
Emotional Intelligence (EI)
 
The 15 commitments of conscious leadership
The 15 commitments of conscious leadershipThe 15 commitments of conscious leadership
The 15 commitments of conscious leadership
 
Men Must be Bold
Men Must be BoldMen Must be Bold
Men Must be Bold
 
Happiness
Happiness Happiness
Happiness
 
Wisdom cures VUCA - PMI Ghana Nov 2021
Wisdom cures VUCA   - PMI Ghana Nov 2021Wisdom cures VUCA   - PMI Ghana Nov 2021
Wisdom cures VUCA - PMI Ghana Nov 2021
 
Adversity - Part of God’s Plan for Our Eternal Progress
Adversity - Part of God’s Plan for Our Eternal ProgressAdversity - Part of God’s Plan for Our Eternal Progress
Adversity - Part of God’s Plan for Our Eternal Progress
 
Divorce Magazine
Divorce MagazineDivorce Magazine
Divorce Magazine
 
Happy Healthy Wealthy Wise
Happy Healthy Wealthy WiseHappy Healthy Wealthy Wise
Happy Healthy Wealthy Wise
 
Success Scientists Versus Iqbal
Success Scientists Versus IqbalSuccess Scientists Versus Iqbal
Success Scientists Versus Iqbal
 
Article 4 Billie input
Article 4 Billie inputArticle 4 Billie input
Article 4 Billie input
 

Similaire à Peace Workshop Part 1

Leadership with a New Perspective Day 1
Leadership with a New Perspective  Day 1Leadership with a New Perspective  Day 1
Leadership with a New Perspective Day 1
SCRay1
 
Whats wrongwithus
Whats wrongwithusWhats wrongwithus
Whats wrongwithus
Pinus57
 
The Talent Gap, 2004
The Talent Gap, 2004The Talent Gap, 2004
The Talent Gap, 2004
Anna Pollock
 
Peter Mansfield - Selling Sickness 2010
Peter Mansfield - Selling Sickness 2010Peter Mansfield - Selling Sickness 2010
Peter Mansfield - Selling Sickness 2010
Gezonde scepsis
 
8. Power of Coalescence
8. Power of Coalescence8. Power of Coalescence
8. Power of Coalescence
Joe Gamore
 

Similaire à Peace Workshop Part 1 (20)

The Psychology of Brexit, Trump & The Alt Right
The Psychology of Brexit, Trump & The Alt RightThe Psychology of Brexit, Trump & The Alt Right
The Psychology of Brexit, Trump & The Alt Right
 
Progressive Narratives - Framing the Debate
Progressive Narratives  - Framing the Debate Progressive Narratives  - Framing the Debate
Progressive Narratives - Framing the Debate
 
Flourishing Beyond Growth
Flourishing Beyond GrowthFlourishing Beyond Growth
Flourishing Beyond Growth
 
Leadership with a New Perspective Day 1
Leadership with a New Perspective  Day 1Leadership with a New Perspective  Day 1
Leadership with a New Perspective Day 1
 
Whats wrongwithus
Whats wrongwithusWhats wrongwithus
Whats wrongwithus
 
Behavioral Economics & Institutions
Behavioral Economics & InstitutionsBehavioral Economics & Institutions
Behavioral Economics & Institutions
 
Truth Telling & Truth Suppression:Lies, Myths. and Realities
Truth Telling & Truth Suppression:Lies, Myths. and RealitiesTruth Telling & Truth Suppression:Lies, Myths. and Realities
Truth Telling & Truth Suppression:Lies, Myths. and Realities
 
20 from 20
20 from 2020 from 20
20 from 20
 
Sociology day 1 - Welcome notes from Dr. Xena Crystal LC Huang
Sociology day 1 - Welcome notes from  Dr. Xena Crystal LC HuangSociology day 1 - Welcome notes from  Dr. Xena Crystal LC Huang
Sociology day 1 - Welcome notes from Dr. Xena Crystal LC Huang
 
The Talent Gap, 2004
The Talent Gap, 2004The Talent Gap, 2004
The Talent Gap, 2004
 
Bay of Plenty Presentation, March 18th 2020
Bay of Plenty Presentation, March 18th 2020Bay of Plenty Presentation, March 18th 2020
Bay of Plenty Presentation, March 18th 2020
 
Brainjuicer behavingeconomicallywiththtruth
Brainjuicer behavingeconomicallywiththtruthBrainjuicer behavingeconomicallywiththtruth
Brainjuicer behavingeconomicallywiththtruth
 
Quest for Prosperity: Culture and Economy
Quest for Prosperity: Culture and EconomyQuest for Prosperity: Culture and Economy
Quest for Prosperity: Culture and Economy
 
Spiral Dynamics Introduction
Spiral Dynamics IntroductionSpiral Dynamics Introduction
Spiral Dynamics Introduction
 
Ethics Lecture 2012
Ethics Lecture 2012Ethics Lecture 2012
Ethics Lecture 2012
 
National influence for international financial management
National influence for international financial management National influence for international financial management
National influence for international financial management
 
Peter Mansfield - Selling Sickness 2010
Peter Mansfield - Selling Sickness 2010Peter Mansfield - Selling Sickness 2010
Peter Mansfield - Selling Sickness 2010
 
A New Tourism for a New Economy
A New Tourism for a New EconomyA New Tourism for a New Economy
A New Tourism for a New Economy
 
8. Power of Coalescence
8. Power of Coalescence8. Power of Coalescence
8. Power of Coalescence
 
Fresh Directions in Economics
Fresh Directions in EconomicsFresh Directions in Economics
Fresh Directions in Economics
 

Dernier

Salient Features of India constitution especially power and functions
Salient Features of India constitution especially power and functionsSalient Features of India constitution especially power and functions
Salient Features of India constitution especially power and functions
KarakKing
 
Jual Obat Aborsi Hongkong ( Asli No.1 ) 085657271886 Obat Penggugur Kandungan...
Jual Obat Aborsi Hongkong ( Asli No.1 ) 085657271886 Obat Penggugur Kandungan...Jual Obat Aborsi Hongkong ( Asli No.1 ) 085657271886 Obat Penggugur Kandungan...
Jual Obat Aborsi Hongkong ( Asli No.1 ) 085657271886 Obat Penggugur Kandungan...
ZurliaSoop
 

Dernier (20)

How to Add New Custom Addons Path in Odoo 17
How to Add New Custom Addons Path in Odoo 17How to Add New Custom Addons Path in Odoo 17
How to Add New Custom Addons Path in Odoo 17
 
On_Translating_a_Tamil_Poem_by_A_K_Ramanujan.pptx
On_Translating_a_Tamil_Poem_by_A_K_Ramanujan.pptxOn_Translating_a_Tamil_Poem_by_A_K_Ramanujan.pptx
On_Translating_a_Tamil_Poem_by_A_K_Ramanujan.pptx
 
Interdisciplinary_Insights_Data_Collection_Methods.pptx
Interdisciplinary_Insights_Data_Collection_Methods.pptxInterdisciplinary_Insights_Data_Collection_Methods.pptx
Interdisciplinary_Insights_Data_Collection_Methods.pptx
 
Google Gemini An AI Revolution in Education.pptx
Google Gemini An AI Revolution in Education.pptxGoogle Gemini An AI Revolution in Education.pptx
Google Gemini An AI Revolution in Education.pptx
 
Python Notes for mca i year students osmania university.docx
Python Notes for mca i year students osmania university.docxPython Notes for mca i year students osmania university.docx
Python Notes for mca i year students osmania university.docx
 
Salient Features of India constitution especially power and functions
Salient Features of India constitution especially power and functionsSalient Features of India constitution especially power and functions
Salient Features of India constitution especially power and functions
 
REMIFENTANIL: An Ultra short acting opioid.pptx
REMIFENTANIL: An Ultra short acting opioid.pptxREMIFENTANIL: An Ultra short acting opioid.pptx
REMIFENTANIL: An Ultra short acting opioid.pptx
 
Micro-Scholarship, What it is, How can it help me.pdf
Micro-Scholarship, What it is, How can it help me.pdfMicro-Scholarship, What it is, How can it help me.pdf
Micro-Scholarship, What it is, How can it help me.pdf
 
Application orientated numerical on hev.ppt
Application orientated numerical on hev.pptApplication orientated numerical on hev.ppt
Application orientated numerical on hev.ppt
 
Holdier Curriculum Vitae (April 2024).pdf
Holdier Curriculum Vitae (April 2024).pdfHoldier Curriculum Vitae (April 2024).pdf
Holdier Curriculum Vitae (April 2024).pdf
 
Beyond_Borders_Understanding_Anime_and_Manga_Fandom_A_Comprehensive_Audience_...
Beyond_Borders_Understanding_Anime_and_Manga_Fandom_A_Comprehensive_Audience_...Beyond_Borders_Understanding_Anime_and_Manga_Fandom_A_Comprehensive_Audience_...
Beyond_Borders_Understanding_Anime_and_Manga_Fandom_A_Comprehensive_Audience_...
 
Jual Obat Aborsi Hongkong ( Asli No.1 ) 085657271886 Obat Penggugur Kandungan...
Jual Obat Aborsi Hongkong ( Asli No.1 ) 085657271886 Obat Penggugur Kandungan...Jual Obat Aborsi Hongkong ( Asli No.1 ) 085657271886 Obat Penggugur Kandungan...
Jual Obat Aborsi Hongkong ( Asli No.1 ) 085657271886 Obat Penggugur Kandungan...
 
Food safety_Challenges food safety laboratories_.pdf
Food safety_Challenges food safety laboratories_.pdfFood safety_Challenges food safety laboratories_.pdf
Food safety_Challenges food safety laboratories_.pdf
 
SOC 101 Demonstration of Learning Presentation
SOC 101 Demonstration of Learning PresentationSOC 101 Demonstration of Learning Presentation
SOC 101 Demonstration of Learning Presentation
 
How to Manage Global Discount in Odoo 17 POS
How to Manage Global Discount in Odoo 17 POSHow to Manage Global Discount in Odoo 17 POS
How to Manage Global Discount in Odoo 17 POS
 
NO1 Top Black Magic Specialist In Lahore Black magic In Pakistan Kala Ilam Ex...
NO1 Top Black Magic Specialist In Lahore Black magic In Pakistan Kala Ilam Ex...NO1 Top Black Magic Specialist In Lahore Black magic In Pakistan Kala Ilam Ex...
NO1 Top Black Magic Specialist In Lahore Black magic In Pakistan Kala Ilam Ex...
 
Key note speaker Neum_Admir Softic_ENG.pdf
Key note speaker Neum_Admir Softic_ENG.pdfKey note speaker Neum_Admir Softic_ENG.pdf
Key note speaker Neum_Admir Softic_ENG.pdf
 
HMCS Vancouver Pre-Deployment Brief - May 2024 (Web Version).pptx
HMCS Vancouver Pre-Deployment Brief - May 2024 (Web Version).pptxHMCS Vancouver Pre-Deployment Brief - May 2024 (Web Version).pptx
HMCS Vancouver Pre-Deployment Brief - May 2024 (Web Version).pptx
 
How to Give a Domain for a Field in Odoo 17
How to Give a Domain for a Field in Odoo 17How to Give a Domain for a Field in Odoo 17
How to Give a Domain for a Field in Odoo 17
 
Sensory_Experience_and_Emotional_Resonance_in_Gabriel_Okaras_The_Piano_and_Th...
Sensory_Experience_and_Emotional_Resonance_in_Gabriel_Okaras_The_Piano_and_Th...Sensory_Experience_and_Emotional_Resonance_in_Gabriel_Okaras_The_Piano_and_Th...
Sensory_Experience_and_Emotional_Resonance_in_Gabriel_Okaras_The_Piano_and_Th...
 

Peace Workshop Part 1

  • 1.
  • 2. Island Economics Cultures and how to see the world accurately Envy and victims = economic and personal vitality destroyers Forecasting and scenario planning  Experts & Dummies Ethics, sustainability and virtue  Business Values Discussion Outline
  • 3.
  • 9. We all live in a Yellow Submarine Spiral Dynamics
  • 10. A theory of human development Human nature is not fixed People will adapt to their environment when forced by life conditions by constructing a new model of the world. Cultural DNA Spiral Dynamics Memes & DNA • Systems of values • Apply to individuals and cultures • Negative and positive • Each new system modifies or builds on the previous
  • 11. Stage/Wave Color Code Popular Name Thinking Cultural manifestations and personal displays 8 Turquoise Wholeview Holistic collective individualism; cosmic spirituality; earth changes 7 Yellow FlexFlow Ecological natural systems; self-principle; multiple realities; knowledge 6 Green Human Bond Consensus egalitarian; feelings; authentic; sharing; caring ;community 5 Orange StriveDrive Strategic materialistic; consumerism; success; image; status; growth 4 Blue TruthForce Authority meaning; discipline; traditions morality; rules; lives for later 3 Red PowerGods Egocentric gratification; glitz; conquest; action; impulsive; lives for now 2 Purple KinSpirits Animistic rites; rituals; taboos; superstitions; tribes; folk ways & lore 1 Beige Survival Sense Instinctive food; water; procreation; warmth; protection; stays alive Source: Don Beck Ph.D
  • 12. Spiral Dynamics’ Takeaways • We make mistakes as people, companies and groups when we think people are like us. • We need to meet people at their level – not ours. • Zen training = we can see what is real when we quit judging and saying “this is GOOD - this is Bad - this is NEUTRAL & this is… fill in the blank. • Most consensus, democratic or group systems are reactive systems not proactive. • Bottom line is everything connects & economics is about people in action not money in action.
  • 13. Forecasting and Scenarios Stand in the Future 3 Same Subject Experts
  • 14. Forecasting and Scenarios Stand in the Future 3 Experts and a Dummy
  • 15. Forecasting and Scenarios Stand in the Future 3 Experts and an Artist
  • 16. Simplicity & Complexity • Complex problems require complex solutions • We make mistakes when we over- simplify complex problems
  • 17. Simplicity & Complexity • Complex problems require complex solutions Problem; Need sustainable economy that provides Jobs Problem; War Problem; Starvation Problem; Ignorance (root) “Just be ethical” & “Just Love More”
  • 18. What causes a Financial Crisis? What Causes a Financial Opportunity/Crisis?
  • 19. People will rationally “binge” “Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!” – Charles Mackay “Irrational Exuberance” –Alan Greenspan
  • 20. Cycles Happen • Financial meltdowns are a systematic and normal dysfunction of government influence, greed, fear, and are normal in our world. Tulip mania – 1620 Mississippi Company France 1719/1720 & John Law South Sea Company London 1711/1720 Wall Street 1929 Junk bonds 1980s Dot.coms/telecom 1990s Sub-prime mortgages/CDOs
  • 21. People Make Mistakes What Causes a Financial Crisis? Mis-pricing of risk MPT (Modern portfolio theory) Increases in real risk are not captured in nominal market prices Asset prices become irrational
  • 22. Finance 101 • Present value should reflect the risk of actually receiving future income • Capital value is a function of present and future income! • Misjudgments about future income distort present capital values (Manias/Emotion, squinter problem)
  • 23. Finance 1001 We want to Believe! • A person will not wish to know something, if knowing that something will cost him or her. Coal and Global Warming Meat eating and Environmentalism/Global Warming Driving “Hummers” Not walking/riding bike Eating Junk food – other stuff…
  • 24. Free money=distortions • In financial bubbles, mis-pricing is sustained by infusions of debt • Higher and higher asset values are supported by borrowed funds • Excess liquidity – based on future promises to pay – transforms investment into speculation; prudence loses out to greed; illusion trumps reality (beliefs VS truth)– for a time
  • 25. Systems are reactive World Economic regulations, contracts, laws and “Order enhancers” have inadequate pro-active mechanisms to prevent financial crises [bureaucratic /boards] Bottom line is: Groups tend to be reactive Someone fell off the Empire state building….
  • 26. What is the fair value of an investment in business? Quality Income Stream High future income Priced right Good Corporate Value (Warren Buffet would buy it)
  • 27. Today where does most corporate value come from? Intangible Assets!
  • 28. Intangible value 3-4-14 Microsoft: Market value: $318 billion Balance sheet assets: ~45%% Goodwill/intangibles: 55% Starbucks: Market value: $54 billion Balance sheet assets: 20% Goodwill/intangibles: 80% Facebook Market value: $173 billion Balance sheet assets: ~10%% Goodwill/intangibles: 90%
  • 29. Growing Importance of Intangible Wealth Change in U.S. Employment: Tangible sector (manufacturing, construction, natural resources, real estate, wholesale and retail, transportation and warehousing) = job losses Intangible sector (education, health care, computer system design, finance and insurance, scientific research, etc.) = job gains
  • 30. Valuation & Sustainability Intangible Assets = Stakeholder Relationships (are the relationships sustainably nurtured and part of culture) Create value thru growing relationships with… Customers Employees Owners/Investors Suppliers Competition (Strategic relationship) Community
  • 31. How Do Companies Create (Intangible) Value? • The Good • The Bad • The Ugly
  • 32. The Good (Virtue Capitalism) Manage Risk Be Opportunity seeking Constantly reassess business practices Through 1)systems and culture 2)Best practice adoption Optimize Stakeholder Benefits as goal A culture where Virtue matters Transparency (I am what I am-no hiding anymore)
  • 33. The Bad Brute Capitalism, Crony Capitalism  Feed Shareholders,& Abuse Stakeholders  Feed Mangers & Abuse shareholders and everyone else  Hire slaves, compete only on pricing/low costs  abusing market power  Take the money and run: short term-ism  Always with a smile of course  Unsustainable values & practices= Eventual Failure
  • 34. The Ugly (Punting on the trading floor) No net wealth creation (Rob Peter to pay Paul) Exploiting the emotion & Irrational Exuberance (Market traders/short term-ism) Exploiting emotions = False Valuations (Enron: Ponzi Scheme; sub prime mortgages, CDOs, CDSs, 50,000 dogs) Encourage unsustainable pricing of securities (CDOs, CDSs, government bonds, currencies) INEVITABLE FINANCIAL MELTDOWN
  • 36. Reality=life goes on Unsustainable trends are unsustainable… Herbert Stein
  • 37. Reality=life goes on Net wealth creation will happen Wealth transfer will happen Irrational Exuberance will happen False Valuations will happen So what do you do about it? Use your head and heart & Think! Has your brain ever hurt from thinking?
  • 38. Summary Island Economics= everything connects Cultures = meet people at their culture Scenarios =Experts, dummies and Artists Ethics, sustainability and virtue matter
  • 39. Summary Complex problems require complex solutions People won’t learn the truth if it could hurt them (Duh!) Beliefs are more powerful than truth. Emotions Manias happen markets are cyclical. Emotions Life goes on, Relax and enjoy! Zen Master gets sick (story)
  • 40. suffering exists We suffer because we grasp and obsess; We can do something about suffering; We can live a spiritual life. Neither shall they say, Lo here! or, lo there! for, behold, the kingdom of God is within you. Luke 17:21 “Peace comes from Within; DO not seek it without.” Buddha
  • 41.
  • 42. If you look at the Peacemakers that we know from history and today; Joan of Arc, David, Gandhi, Dalai lama, Mother Theresa, M. L. King Jr., Nelson Mandela, Desmond Tutu, St. Francis, Fethullah Gulen, Malala Yousafzai, they were willing to risk their lives, their social comforts and acceptance to pursuit virtue-infused ideals.
  • 43. 7 Social Sins Wealth without Work Pleasure without Conscience Knowledge without Character Commerce without Morality Science without Humanity Worship without Sacrifice Politics without Principle – Mahatma Gandhi 8th sin added by Arun Gandhi, his grandson: Rights without Responsibilities
  • 44. I grew up among the Sages. All my life I listened to their words. Yet I have found nothing better than silence. Study is not the goal, doing is. Do not mistake “talk” for “action.” Pity fills no stomach. Compassion builds no house. Understanding is not yet justice. Whoever multiplies words causes confusion. The truth that can be spoken Is not the Ultimate Truth. Ultimate Truth is wordless, the silence within the silence. More than the absence of speech, More than the absence of words, Ultimate Truth is the seamless being-in-place that comes with attending to Reality. —Shimon ben Gamliel