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The Economy:  Getting Through the Recession ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Presented by:  Morris  Segall, President  SPG Trend Advisors To:
THE ECONOMY
Gross Domestic Product 2001Q1 - 2008Q3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Contributions to GDP Growth by Component  2007Q3-2008 Q3 ,[object Object]
Corporate Profits (before tax) 2003Q1 - 2008Q3 ,[object Object]
Industrial Production  January 2007-November 2008 ,[object Object]
Net Change in U.S. Jobs June 2005 – December 2008 ,[object Object]
National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups December 2007 – December 2008 ,[object Object]
Continued Unemployment Claims  January 2006 - December 27 th , 2008 ,[object Object]
Source: (Left) Census Bureau (Right) Federal Reserve ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],Source:  (Left) National Association of Realtors, (Right) Census Bureau  New Home Sales Units Sold vs. Length on Market  February 2006-November 2008
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index  2006 – October 2008 ,[object Object]
Commercial Mortgage Delinquency Rates  among Major Investor Groups 2005 Q4-2008Q3 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
Source: Bureau of Labor and Statistics Changes in Consumer Price Index in Percentage Terms 2006 v. 2005 2007 v.  2006 6 months ended in Sep. 2008 6 months ended in Nov. 2008 All items 2.5% 4.1% 5.2% -1.9% Food at Home 1.4% 5.6% 8.6% 7.5% Food Away Home 3.2% 4.0% 5.4% 5.8% Rent of Primary Res 4.3% 4.0% 3.5% 3.9% Owners Equiv of Rent of Prim Res 4.3% 2.8% 2.0% 2.3% Household Energy 2.4% 5.3% 12.7% -4.4% Water/Sewer/Trash  4.8% 5.4% 7.1% 8.5% Houshold Ops 4.4% 2.2% 7.2% 2.1% Car Repair 3.8% 3.3% 6.8% 6.1% Pub. Transp 0.1% 7.2% 13.8% -3.0% Medical 3.6% 5.2% 2.3% 2.5% Education 6.3% 5.6% 6.1% 5.6% Energy 2.9% 17.4% 20.9% -36.1%
Average Hourly Compensation 2004 – December 2008 ,[object Object]
[object Object],NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S. Dollars February 2001– January 6 th  2009
How do I get through it? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How do I get through it? (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What’s on the other side?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What’s on the other side? (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Where are the opportunities? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions continued ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions continued ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank You ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Appendix: Maryland Economic Data
Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups in Maryland: December 2007-November 2008 ,[object Object]
Change in Maryland Housing Units Sold   January 2002 - November 2008 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors
Change in Average Home Price by Maryland Jurisdiction  November 2007 - November 2008 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors County 2008 2007 % chan ge County 2008 2007 % change Allegany 116,111 122,347 -5.1% St. Mary's 300,193 340,130 -11.70% Somerset 116,750 144,200 -19.00% Charles 301,918 341,455 -11.60% Dorchester 143,767 203,046 -29.20% Carroll 307,168 341,319 -10.00% Caroline 166,490 193,210 -13.80% MARYLAND 309,337 346,513 -10.70% Baltimore City 179,716 177,753 1.10% Worcester 363,293 371,858 -2.30% Washington 180,898 207,827 -13.00% Garrett 365,253 379,882 -3.90% Wicomico 218,784 241,291 -9.30% Queen Anne's 370,731 491,195 -24.50% Cecil 243,825 282,557 -13.70% Anne Arrundel 376,320 415,771 -9.50% Harford 258,544 274,688 -5.90% Howard 386,426 428,685 -9.90% Prince George's 264,885 314,577 -15.80% Montgomery 425,742 518,474 -17.90% Frederick 276,594 341,285 -19.00% Talbot 806,577 623,564 29.30% Baltimore County 278,591 317,622 -12.30% Kent 821,650 210,277 290.70% Calvert 297,748 391,194 -23.90%
Change in Home sales by Maryland Jurisdiction November 2007 – November 2008 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors County 2008 2007 % change County 2008 2007 % change Somerset 3 11 -72.70% St. Mary's 63 62 1.60% Kent 6 13 -53.80% Charles 75 117 -35.90% Caroline 10 20 -50.00% Carroll 76 89 -14.60% Dorchester 12 24 -50.00% Howard 124 216 -42.60% Talbot 13 49 -73.50% Frederick 136 152 -10.50% Queen Anne's 16 32 -50.00% Harford 143 186 -23.10% Garrett 19 35 -45.70% Anne Arrundel 266 346 -23.10% Allegany 27 44 -38.60% Baltimore City 320 496 -35.50% Calvert 29 69 -58.00% Prince George's 333 418 -20.30% Wicomico 41 46 -10.90% Baltimore County 341 559 -39.00% Cecil 42 68 -38.20% Montgomery 528 587 -10.10% Worcester 57 106 -46.20% MARYLAND 2,740 3813 -28.10% Washington 60 68 -11.80%

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The Economy: Getting Through the Recession

  • 1.
  • 3. Gross Domestic Product 2001Q1 - 2008Q3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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  • 13. Commercial Mortgage Delinquency Rates among Major Investor Groups 2005 Q4-2008Q3 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
  • 14. Source: Bureau of Labor and Statistics Changes in Consumer Price Index in Percentage Terms 2006 v. 2005 2007 v. 2006 6 months ended in Sep. 2008 6 months ended in Nov. 2008 All items 2.5% 4.1% 5.2% -1.9% Food at Home 1.4% 5.6% 8.6% 7.5% Food Away Home 3.2% 4.0% 5.4% 5.8% Rent of Primary Res 4.3% 4.0% 3.5% 3.9% Owners Equiv of Rent of Prim Res 4.3% 2.8% 2.0% 2.3% Household Energy 2.4% 5.3% 12.7% -4.4% Water/Sewer/Trash 4.8% 5.4% 7.1% 8.5% Houshold Ops 4.4% 2.2% 7.2% 2.1% Car Repair 3.8% 3.3% 6.8% 6.1% Pub. Transp 0.1% 7.2% 13.8% -3.0% Medical 3.6% 5.2% 2.3% 2.5% Education 6.3% 5.6% 6.1% 5.6% Energy 2.9% 17.4% 20.9% -36.1%
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  • 28. Change in Maryland Housing Units Sold January 2002 - November 2008 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors
  • 29. Change in Average Home Price by Maryland Jurisdiction November 2007 - November 2008 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors County 2008 2007 % chan ge County 2008 2007 % change Allegany 116,111 122,347 -5.1% St. Mary's 300,193 340,130 -11.70% Somerset 116,750 144,200 -19.00% Charles 301,918 341,455 -11.60% Dorchester 143,767 203,046 -29.20% Carroll 307,168 341,319 -10.00% Caroline 166,490 193,210 -13.80% MARYLAND 309,337 346,513 -10.70% Baltimore City 179,716 177,753 1.10% Worcester 363,293 371,858 -2.30% Washington 180,898 207,827 -13.00% Garrett 365,253 379,882 -3.90% Wicomico 218,784 241,291 -9.30% Queen Anne's 370,731 491,195 -24.50% Cecil 243,825 282,557 -13.70% Anne Arrundel 376,320 415,771 -9.50% Harford 258,544 274,688 -5.90% Howard 386,426 428,685 -9.90% Prince George's 264,885 314,577 -15.80% Montgomery 425,742 518,474 -17.90% Frederick 276,594 341,285 -19.00% Talbot 806,577 623,564 29.30% Baltimore County 278,591 317,622 -12.30% Kent 821,650 210,277 290.70% Calvert 297,748 391,194 -23.90%
  • 30. Change in Home sales by Maryland Jurisdiction November 2007 – November 2008 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors County 2008 2007 % change County 2008 2007 % change Somerset 3 11 -72.70% St. Mary's 63 62 1.60% Kent 6 13 -53.80% Charles 75 117 -35.90% Caroline 10 20 -50.00% Carroll 76 89 -14.60% Dorchester 12 24 -50.00% Howard 124 216 -42.60% Talbot 13 49 -73.50% Frederick 136 152 -10.50% Queen Anne's 16 32 -50.00% Harford 143 186 -23.10% Garrett 19 35 -45.70% Anne Arrundel 266 346 -23.10% Allegany 27 44 -38.60% Baltimore City 320 496 -35.50% Calvert 29 69 -58.00% Prince George's 333 418 -20.30% Wicomico 41 46 -10.90% Baltimore County 341 559 -39.00% Cecil 42 68 -38.20% Montgomery 528 587 -10.10% Worcester 57 106 -46.20% MARYLAND 2,740 3813 -28.10% Washington 60 68 -11.80%