1. The Future of the Future
Whither IT?
Paul Kedrosky
February 20, 2007
2. Some Discussion “What Ifs”
• What if …
– A lot of what we know is wrong
• Corporate IT isn’t dead
• Storage isn’t over
• Microsoft doesn’t matter
• Google isn’t all-powerful
• Consumers aren’t that hard to market to
• Telecom is set for a resurgence
3. Some Contrarian “What Ifs”
• What if …
– A lot of what is ‘hot’ isn’t
• RSS
• Photo sharing
• Social networks
• YouTubes of
– Some things are gone forever
• Binary apps
• Siloed enterprise apps
4. Some Things to Look For
• Lightweight modular software
– Mash-ups using SOA versus monolithic enterprise
apps
• Short sales cycle – 3-9 months at most
• Disruptive technology or business solution
– Create new markets
– Or, transform a $10B market to $1B
• And the usual
– People and market
– Growth and momentum
15. Consumers & Mobile
By 2010 there will exist about 5 billion "mobile endpoints,"
or devices ranging from digital music players and
camera phones to gaming consoles and Web-enabled
cars.
16. Sensors & Ubiquitous Computing
Just as the personal computer was a symbol of the
’80s, and the symbol of the ’90s is the World
Wide Web, the next nonlinear shift, is going to
be the advent of cheap sensors.
-Paul Saffo, Institute for the Future
19. “Out There” Stuff
• “Data-aware” computing
– Scientific workflows automatically migrate towards systems
where the required datasets already reside or can be quickly
obtained
• High Throughput Genomics
– Next generation sequencing technologies causing massive
increase in the sheer volume of data available to researchers
– A single lab machine produces around 1 billion bases per day
– Data centers can’t keep up
• Predictive and systems biology
– Increasing trend toward data-driven drug discovery