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DÉJÀVU
STOCKS AND FLOWS
Number of
Eggs
Number of
Chickens
Hatching
Laying+
+
Fatal Road
Crossings
+
-
Reinforcing Loop
unsustainable
virtuous/vicious cycle
Balancing Loop
stabilises
Crises
Heroics
Improvement
of the
system
+
+
B
B
Expediting
+
+
R
Rewards
Dependence on
heroics for sense
of accomplishment
-
+
+
R
-
-
Delay
Time and attention to
system improvements
-
+
R
WHEN DOINGTHE SAME
THING BETTER WON’T HELP
• Fat-tail lead time distributions
• Long average lead time relative to deadlines
• High volatility in staff liquidity
Because all of these things mean your system is exposed to extreme
random events which invalidate your attempts to forecast.
In these cases, the solution requires an act of leadership.
I learned this from Alexei Zheglov
LEADTIME DISTRIBUTION
75 99
85%
FatTail (Weibull k value<1)
2 24
50%
Long average
VOLATILE STAFF LIQUIDITY
THE POWERTO DRIVE
CHANGE
Individuals Teams Executives
Single digits Triple digitsDouble digits
IFYOU CAN’T FIX IT, GAME IT
UPSTREAM DELAYS
Conduct Strategy Reviews
Align strategy and capability
Set replenishment points
Define acceptance criteria
Visualize failure demand
Demand shaping policies
UPSTREAM DELAYS
SET REPLENISHMENT POINTS
Conduct Strategy Reviews
Align strategy and capability
Set replenishment points
Define acceptance criteria
Visualize failure demand
Demand shaping policies
Conduct Strategy Reviews
Align strategy and capability
Set replenishment points
Define acceptance criteria
Visualize failure demand
Demand shaping policies
UPSTREAM DELAYS
DEFINE ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA
Conduct Strategy Reviews
Align strategy and capability
Set replenishment points
Define acceptance criteria
Visualize failure demand
Demand shaping policies
UPSTREAM DELAYS
VISUALIZE FAILURE DEMAND
Conduct Strategy Reviews
Align strategy and capability
Set replenishment points
Define acceptance criteria
Visualize failure demand
Demand shaping policies
UPSTREAM DELAYS
DEMAND SHAPING POLICIES
Conduct Strategy Reviews
Align strategy and capability
Set replenishment points
Define acceptance criteria
Visualize failure demand
Demand shaping policies
UPSTREAM DELAYS
CONDUCT STRATEGY REVIEWS
Photo by rawpixel.com from Pexels
IN PROCESS DELAYS
Measure and predict blockers
Raise placeholder tickets
Cross-train
Make friends - a virtual team
Request SLAs
WIP limit on parking lot
Limit upstream work
Customer acceptance criteria
More frequent replenishment
Floating talent pool
Shared services enablement
Co-locate
Embed
More frequent replenishment
Customer-centric metrics
IN PROCESS DELAYS
MEASURE AND PREDICT BLOCKERS
Measure and predict blockers
Raise placeholder tickets
Cross-train
Make friends - a virtual team
Request SLAs
WIP limit on parking lot
Limit upstream work
Customer acceptance criteria
Floating talent pool
Shared services enablement
Co-locate
Embed
More frequent replenishment
Customer-centric metrics
IN PROCESS DELAYS
MEASURE AND PREDICT BLOCKERS
Measure and predict blockers
Raise placeholder tickets
Cross-train
Make friends - a virtual team
Request SLAs
WIP limit on parking lot
Limit upstream work
Customer acceptance criteria
Floating talent pool
Shared services enablement
Co-locate
Embed
More frequent replenishment
Customer-centric metrics
IN PROCESS DELAYS
RAISE PLACEHOLDER TICKETS
Measure and predict blockers
Raise placeholder tickets
Cross-train
Make friends - a virtual team
Request SLAs
WIP limit on parking lot
Limit upstream work
Customer acceptance criteria
Floating talent pool
Shared services enablement
Co-locate
Embed
More frequent replenishment
Customer-centric metrics
IN PROCESS DELAYS
CROSS-TRAIN
Measure and predict blockers
Raise placeholder tickets
Cross-train
Make friends - a virtual team
Request SLAs
WIP limit on parking lot
Limit upstream work
Customer acceptance criteria
Floating talent pool
Shared services enablement
Co-locate
Embed
More frequent replenishment
Customer-centric metrics
IN PROCESS DELAYS
MAKE FRIENDS AND BUILD A VIRTUAL TEAM
Measure and predict blockers
Raise placeholder tickets
Cross-train
Make friends - a virtual team
Request SLAs
WIP limit on parking lot
Limit upstream work
Customer acceptance criteria
Floating talent pool
Shared services enablement
Co-locate
Embed
More frequent replenishment
Customer-centric metrics
IN PROCESS DELAYS
REQUEST SLAS
Measure and predict blockers
Raise placeholder tickets
Cross-train
Make friends - a virtual team
Request SLAs
WIP limit on parking lot
Limit upstream work
Customer acceptance criteria
Floating talent pool
Shared services enablement
Co-locate
Embed
More frequent replenishment
Customer-centric metrics
IN PROCESS DELAYS
WIP LIMIT ON PARKING LOT
Measure and predict blockers
Raise placeholder tickets
Cross-train
Make friends - a virtual team
Request SLAs
WIP limit on parking lot
Limit upstream work
Customer acceptance criteria
Floating talent pool
Shared services enablement
Co-locate
Embed
More frequent replenishment
Customer-centric metrics
IN PROCESS DELAYS
LIMIT UPSTREAM WORK
Measure and predict blockers
Raise placeholder tickets
Cross-train
Make friends - a virtual team
Request SLAs
WIP limit on parking lot
Limit upstream work
Customer acceptance criteria
Floating talent pool
Shared services enablement
Co-locate
Embed
More frequent replenishment
Customer-centric metrics
IN PROCESS DELAYS
CUSTOMER ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA
Measure and predict blockers
Raise placeholder tickets
Cross-train
Make friends - a virtual team
Request SLAs
WIP limit on parking lot
Limit upstream work
Customer acceptance criteria
Floating talent pool
Shared services enablement
Co-locate
Embed
More frequent replenishment
Customer-centric metrics
IN PROCESS DELAYS
MORE FREQUENT REPLENISHMENT
Measure and predict blockers
Raise placeholder tickets
Cross-train
Make friends - a virtual team
Request SLAs
WIP limit on parking lot
Limit upstream work
Customer acceptance criteria
Floating talent pool
Shared services enablement
Co-locate
Embed
More frequent replenishment
Customer-centric metrics
Thanks to Michał Parkoła for the metaphor
IN PROCESS DELAYS
Measure and predict blockers
Raise placeholder tickets
Cross-train
Make friends - a virtual team
Request SLAs
WIP limit on parking lot
Limit upstream work
Customer acceptance criteria
Floating talent pool
Shared services enablement
Co-locate
Embed
Customer-centric metrics
IN PROCESS DELAYS
FLOATING TALENT POOL
Measure and predict blockers
Raise placeholder tickets
Cross-train
Make friends - a virtual team
Request SLAs
WIP limit on parking lot
Limit upstream work
Customer acceptance criteria
Floating talent pool
Shared services enablement
Co-locate
Embed
More frequent replenishment
Customer-centric metrics
IN PROCESS DELAYS
SHARED SERVICES ENABLEMENT
Measure and predict blockers
Raise placeholder tickets
Cross-train
Make friends - a virtual team
Request SLAs
WIP limit on parking lot
Limit upstream work
Customer acceptance criteria
Floating talent pool
Shared services enablement
Co-locate
Embed
More frequent replenishment
Customer-centric metrics
IN PROCESS DELAYS
CUSTOMER-CENTRIC METRICS
Measure and predict blockers
Raise placeholder tickets
Cross-train
Make friends - a virtual team
Request SLAs
WIP limit on parking lot
Limit upstream work
Customer acceptance criteria
Floating talent pool
Shared services enablement
Co-locate
Embed
More frequent replenishment
Customer-centric metrics
DOWNSTREAM DELAYS
Devops
Reconsider metrics
Earn trust
Keep an open window
Deploy often
DOWNSTREAM DELAYS
EARN TRUST
Earn trust
Keep an open window
Deploy often
Devops
Reconsider metrics
DOWNSTREAM DELAYS
KEEP AN OPEN WINDOW
Earn trust
Keep an open window
Deploy often
Devops
Reconsider metrics
DOWNSTREAM DELAYS
DEPLOY OFTEN
Earn trust
Keep an open window
Deploy often
Devops
Reconsider metrics
Thanks to Wiktor Żołnowski for the metaphor
DOWNSTREAM DELAYS
DEVOPS
Earn trust
Keep an open window
Deploy often
Devops
Reconsider metrics
DOWNSTREAM DELAYS
RECONSIDER METRICS
Earn trust
Keep an open window
Deploy often
Devops
Reconsider metrics
SO MANY OPTIONS!
2 24 75 99
50% 85%
Improve coordination with
a key shared service
SO MANY OPTIONS!
2 12 60 80
50% 85%
Deploy daily
SO MANY OPTIONS!
2 12 52 80
50% 85%
On-demand
replenishment
SO MANY OPTIONS!
2 8 38 68
50% 85%
THANKYOU

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What to do when it's not you

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  • 4. STOCKS AND FLOWS Number of Eggs Number of Chickens Hatching Laying+ + Fatal Road Crossings + - Reinforcing Loop unsustainable virtuous/vicious cycle Balancing Loop stabilises
  • 5. Crises Heroics Improvement of the system + + B B Expediting + + R Rewards Dependence on heroics for sense of accomplishment - + + R - - Delay Time and attention to system improvements - + R
  • 6. WHEN DOINGTHE SAME THING BETTER WON’T HELP • Fat-tail lead time distributions • Long average lead time relative to deadlines • High volatility in staff liquidity Because all of these things mean your system is exposed to extreme random events which invalidate your attempts to forecast. In these cases, the solution requires an act of leadership. I learned this from Alexei Zheglov
  • 7. LEADTIME DISTRIBUTION 75 99 85% FatTail (Weibull k value<1) 2 24 50% Long average
  • 9. THE POWERTO DRIVE CHANGE Individuals Teams Executives Single digits Triple digitsDouble digits
  • 10. IFYOU CAN’T FIX IT, GAME IT
  • 11. UPSTREAM DELAYS Conduct Strategy Reviews Align strategy and capability Set replenishment points Define acceptance criteria Visualize failure demand Demand shaping policies
  • 12. UPSTREAM DELAYS SET REPLENISHMENT POINTS Conduct Strategy Reviews Align strategy and capability Set replenishment points Define acceptance criteria Visualize failure demand Demand shaping policies
  • 13. Conduct Strategy Reviews Align strategy and capability Set replenishment points Define acceptance criteria Visualize failure demand Demand shaping policies UPSTREAM DELAYS DEFINE ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA
  • 14. Conduct Strategy Reviews Align strategy and capability Set replenishment points Define acceptance criteria Visualize failure demand Demand shaping policies UPSTREAM DELAYS VISUALIZE FAILURE DEMAND
  • 15. Conduct Strategy Reviews Align strategy and capability Set replenishment points Define acceptance criteria Visualize failure demand Demand shaping policies UPSTREAM DELAYS DEMAND SHAPING POLICIES
  • 16. Conduct Strategy Reviews Align strategy and capability Set replenishment points Define acceptance criteria Visualize failure demand Demand shaping policies UPSTREAM DELAYS CONDUCT STRATEGY REVIEWS Photo by rawpixel.com from Pexels
  • 17. IN PROCESS DELAYS Measure and predict blockers Raise placeholder tickets Cross-train Make friends - a virtual team Request SLAs WIP limit on parking lot Limit upstream work Customer acceptance criteria More frequent replenishment Floating talent pool Shared services enablement Co-locate Embed More frequent replenishment Customer-centric metrics
  • 18. IN PROCESS DELAYS MEASURE AND PREDICT BLOCKERS Measure and predict blockers Raise placeholder tickets Cross-train Make friends - a virtual team Request SLAs WIP limit on parking lot Limit upstream work Customer acceptance criteria Floating talent pool Shared services enablement Co-locate Embed More frequent replenishment Customer-centric metrics
  • 19. IN PROCESS DELAYS MEASURE AND PREDICT BLOCKERS Measure and predict blockers Raise placeholder tickets Cross-train Make friends - a virtual team Request SLAs WIP limit on parking lot Limit upstream work Customer acceptance criteria Floating talent pool Shared services enablement Co-locate Embed More frequent replenishment Customer-centric metrics
  • 20. IN PROCESS DELAYS RAISE PLACEHOLDER TICKETS Measure and predict blockers Raise placeholder tickets Cross-train Make friends - a virtual team Request SLAs WIP limit on parking lot Limit upstream work Customer acceptance criteria Floating talent pool Shared services enablement Co-locate Embed More frequent replenishment Customer-centric metrics
  • 21. IN PROCESS DELAYS CROSS-TRAIN Measure and predict blockers Raise placeholder tickets Cross-train Make friends - a virtual team Request SLAs WIP limit on parking lot Limit upstream work Customer acceptance criteria Floating talent pool Shared services enablement Co-locate Embed More frequent replenishment Customer-centric metrics
  • 22. IN PROCESS DELAYS MAKE FRIENDS AND BUILD A VIRTUAL TEAM Measure and predict blockers Raise placeholder tickets Cross-train Make friends - a virtual team Request SLAs WIP limit on parking lot Limit upstream work Customer acceptance criteria Floating talent pool Shared services enablement Co-locate Embed More frequent replenishment Customer-centric metrics
  • 23. IN PROCESS DELAYS REQUEST SLAS Measure and predict blockers Raise placeholder tickets Cross-train Make friends - a virtual team Request SLAs WIP limit on parking lot Limit upstream work Customer acceptance criteria Floating talent pool Shared services enablement Co-locate Embed More frequent replenishment Customer-centric metrics
  • 24. IN PROCESS DELAYS WIP LIMIT ON PARKING LOT Measure and predict blockers Raise placeholder tickets Cross-train Make friends - a virtual team Request SLAs WIP limit on parking lot Limit upstream work Customer acceptance criteria Floating talent pool Shared services enablement Co-locate Embed More frequent replenishment Customer-centric metrics
  • 25. IN PROCESS DELAYS LIMIT UPSTREAM WORK Measure and predict blockers Raise placeholder tickets Cross-train Make friends - a virtual team Request SLAs WIP limit on parking lot Limit upstream work Customer acceptance criteria Floating talent pool Shared services enablement Co-locate Embed More frequent replenishment Customer-centric metrics
  • 26. IN PROCESS DELAYS CUSTOMER ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA Measure and predict blockers Raise placeholder tickets Cross-train Make friends - a virtual team Request SLAs WIP limit on parking lot Limit upstream work Customer acceptance criteria Floating talent pool Shared services enablement Co-locate Embed More frequent replenishment Customer-centric metrics
  • 27. IN PROCESS DELAYS MORE FREQUENT REPLENISHMENT Measure and predict blockers Raise placeholder tickets Cross-train Make friends - a virtual team Request SLAs WIP limit on parking lot Limit upstream work Customer acceptance criteria Floating talent pool Shared services enablement Co-locate Embed More frequent replenishment Customer-centric metrics Thanks to Michał Parkoła for the metaphor
  • 28. IN PROCESS DELAYS Measure and predict blockers Raise placeholder tickets Cross-train Make friends - a virtual team Request SLAs WIP limit on parking lot Limit upstream work Customer acceptance criteria Floating talent pool Shared services enablement Co-locate Embed Customer-centric metrics
  • 29. IN PROCESS DELAYS FLOATING TALENT POOL Measure and predict blockers Raise placeholder tickets Cross-train Make friends - a virtual team Request SLAs WIP limit on parking lot Limit upstream work Customer acceptance criteria Floating talent pool Shared services enablement Co-locate Embed More frequent replenishment Customer-centric metrics
  • 30. IN PROCESS DELAYS SHARED SERVICES ENABLEMENT Measure and predict blockers Raise placeholder tickets Cross-train Make friends - a virtual team Request SLAs WIP limit on parking lot Limit upstream work Customer acceptance criteria Floating talent pool Shared services enablement Co-locate Embed More frequent replenishment Customer-centric metrics
  • 31. IN PROCESS DELAYS CUSTOMER-CENTRIC METRICS Measure and predict blockers Raise placeholder tickets Cross-train Make friends - a virtual team Request SLAs WIP limit on parking lot Limit upstream work Customer acceptance criteria Floating talent pool Shared services enablement Co-locate Embed More frequent replenishment Customer-centric metrics
  • 32. DOWNSTREAM DELAYS Devops Reconsider metrics Earn trust Keep an open window Deploy often
  • 33. DOWNSTREAM DELAYS EARN TRUST Earn trust Keep an open window Deploy often Devops Reconsider metrics
  • 34. DOWNSTREAM DELAYS KEEP AN OPEN WINDOW Earn trust Keep an open window Deploy often Devops Reconsider metrics
  • 35. DOWNSTREAM DELAYS DEPLOY OFTEN Earn trust Keep an open window Deploy often Devops Reconsider metrics Thanks to Wiktor Żołnowski for the metaphor
  • 36. DOWNSTREAM DELAYS DEVOPS Earn trust Keep an open window Deploy often Devops Reconsider metrics
  • 37. DOWNSTREAM DELAYS RECONSIDER METRICS Earn trust Keep an open window Deploy often Devops Reconsider metrics
  • 38. SO MANY OPTIONS! 2 24 75 99 50% 85% Improve coordination with a key shared service
  • 39. SO MANY OPTIONS! 2 12 60 80 50% 85% Deploy daily
  • 40. SO MANY OPTIONS! 2 12 52 80 50% 85% On-demand replenishment
  • 41. SO MANY OPTIONS! 2 8 38 68 50% 85%