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March 2012
PA M E L A G O O D F E L L O W
CONSUMER INSIGHTS DIRECTOR, BIGINSIGHT™
MARIANNE BICKLE, PH.D.
D I R E C T O R , C E N T E R F O R R E TA I L I N G
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA
400 W. Wilson Bridge Road, Suite 200, Worthington, OH, 43085 614-846-0146 info@BIGinsight.com
2. Marianne Bickle, Ph.D.
Chair and Director for the Center for Retailing, University of South Carolina
Author:
• Fashion Marketing (published by Fairchild Books)
• The Changing American Consumer (in cooperation with the Prosper Foundation)
Regular contributor on the Forbes Prosper Now Blog
Has published and presented in excess of 90 peer referred
papers in relation to cross-channel shopping, e-commerce,
and student learning paradigms of retailing.
On the Board of Directors on a privately owned fashion
company and is a regular retail contributing expert for
news corporations.
Fostered international relationships in France, Italy, Korea, and
the United Kingdom.
Earned a Ph.D. in Family Ecology, a master’s degree in clothing
and textiles and holds a B.S. in retailing of clothing and textiles.
© 2012, Prosper®
3. March 2012 Consumer Survey
March 2012 Results
• Consumer Confidence
• Practical Purchasing
• Financial Forecast
• Gas Price Impact
• 90 Day Outlook: Future Purchase Plans
The Changing American Consumer
• A Special Look at Fast Food Trends
This report is derived from the following studies:
• BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, March 2012 (N = 9242, respondents surveyed 3/6 – 3/13/12)
• BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey Trends, March 2007 – March 2012
Disclaimer: BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp. Services are delivered by Prosper and/or a Prosper affiliated company (“Prosper”).
Prosper makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained from any source; the present or future methodology employed in
producing the statistics; or the data and estimates represent only the opinion of Prosper and reliance thereon and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.
© 2012, Prosper®
4. Consumer Confidence
Confident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong Economy
Adults 18+
40%
Highlights:
34.8% • Confidence rises for fifth
35%
consecutive month
30%
29.1% • Up nearly 20% from Mar-11
• Highest reading since the very
25% beginning of the recession
Dec-07 = 37.0%
20%
20.6%
15%
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAR 11-12
5. Consumer Confidence
Confident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong Economy
25%
Adults 18+
decline
40% 50% from
45%
Mar-07
34.8%
35% 40%
35%
29.1%
30% 30%
25%
25% 20%
15%
20% 10%
20.6%
46.9%
34.8%
5%
15% 0%
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAR 07-12
6. Practical Purchasing
In the last 6 months, have you made any of the following changes?
Adults 18+
60%
Highlights:
58% • Spending fizzles as Spring
56% heats up
54%
52%
• Practicality increases 10
50% points from February
48% Highest March reading since
46% the heart of the recession
44% (Mar-09 = 52.7%)
42%
• Focus on necessities
40%
increases six points from
February
Also trending slightly ahead
I have become more practical and realistic in my purchases of March readings for the
I focus more on what I NEED rather than what I WANT past two years
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAR 11-12
7. Financial Forecast
Which of the following financial steps are you planning to take in the next 3 months?
Adults 18+
Mar-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 Highlights:
• “Save-not-Squander”
Pay down debt
Financial plans become more
conservative compared to Mar-
11 and Feb-12.
Increase savings
• Increasing Savings on the rise
Typically see spikes in savings
in January (“Holiday Hangover”)
Pay with cash more often
Highest non-January reading
since Feb-07 (31.1%)
Record number of taxpayers
saving their refunds this year
Decrease overall spending
• Are consumers bracing for
higher gas prices?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAR 11-12
8. Pain at the Pump
Do you believe the price of gas will be more, the same or less at the end of the month?
Adults 18+
Highlights:
Less, 3.4%
• The answer to this question was
Same, 19.7% obvious
Vast majority of consumers predict
that gas prices will pump up by the
end of the month.
• End of March Forecast = $4.08/gal
End of February prediction
($3.69/gal) didn’t veer far from reality
($3.78/gal*) * Source: U.S. Energy Administration
More, 76.9%
NEW Blog Series!
Pain at the Pump: Are $4/Gal Fuel
Prices Becoming Part of the New Normal?
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAR-12
9. Pain at the Pump
How have fluctuating gas prices impacted your spending?
by Yearly Household Income
Less than $50K $50K or More Highlights:
• Under $50K wage earners are more
Delayed major purchase affected by prices at the pump, but
$50K+ consumers aren’t immune to
Reduced dining out impact.
<$50K: 81%
Decreased vacation/travel $50K+: 73%
Adults 18+: 77%
I will be driving less
• Driving less is most popular way to
defray fuel expenses
Spending less on groceries
Dining Out, Vacation Travel also
prime cutbacks
Spending less on clothing
0% 20% 40% 60% NEW Blog Series!
Pain at the Pump: Are $4/Gal Fuel
Prices Becoming Part of the New Normal?
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAR-12
10. BIG Forward Look: 90 Day Spending
Over the next 90 days (March, April and May), do you plan on spending more, the same or less
on the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year?
Adults 18+
Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook
(Mar-12 compared to Feb-12, Mar-11, and Mar-10)
Category: Feb-12 Mar-11 Mar-10 Category: Feb-12 Mar-11 Mar-10
Children’s up up up Toys/Games up up up
Women’s Dress up up up CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books down up up
Women’s Casual up up up Electronics up up up
Men’s Dress up up up Groceries up up up
Men’s Casual up up up Home Improvement down up up
Shoes up up up Lawn & Garden up up up
HBC flat up up Home Furniture down up up
Dining Out down up up Home Décor flat up up
Sporting Goods up up up Linens/Bedding/Draperies down up up
Note: “Up,” Down,” “Flat” refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the previous month (Feb-12) or years (Mar-11, Mar-10). Diffusion Index = %
Spending More - % Spending Less.
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAR 10-12
11. BIG Forward Look: 90 Day Spending
Over the next 90 days (March, April and May), do you plan on spending more, the same or less
on the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year?
Adults 18+
Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook
(Mar-12 compared to Feb-12, Mar-11, and Mar-10)
Category: Feb-12 Mar-11 All categories
Mar-10Category: Feb-12 Mar-11 Mar-10
Children’s up up up remain
Toys/Games up up up
Women’s Dress up up up DOWN
CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books down up up
Women’s Casual up up up from
Electronics up up up
Men’s Dress up up
pre-downturn
up Groceries up up up
March 2007
Men’s Casual up up up Home Improvement down up up
Shoes up up up Lawn & Garden up up up
HBC flat up up Home Furniture down up up
Dining Out down up up Home Décor flat up up
Sporting Goods up up up Linens/Bedding/Draperies down up up
Note: “Up,” Down,” “Flat” refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the previous month (Feb-12) or years (Mar-11, Mar-10). Diffusion Index = %
Spending More - % Spending Less.
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAR 10-12
12. National Trend
Increase in consumers’ weight
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention:
• 34% of adults 20 years+ are obese
• 68% of consumers are classified as overweight
© 2012, Prosper®
13. Battle of the sexes: Who is the fast food junky?
Feb 2012 survey of consumers
Frequent Fast Food Restaurants who frequently eat fast food
Four or More Times per Month
• 52.7% men
55.0%
• 47.3% women
50.0% These consumers patronized
fast food restaurants four or
more times per week
45.0%
New insights reveal consumers
40.0% patterns are changing since
Male Female
2005 (Source: The Changing
American Consumer)
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, FEB-12
14. Fast Food Frequency
Percentage of Adults 18+ who eat fast food four or
more times a month is up from Feb-11, but
trending downward from 2005
Frequent Fast Food Restaurants
Four or More Times per Month
50.0%
45.0%
40.0%
Adults18+
35.0%
30.0%
Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, FEB 05-12
15. The troubled economy equalizes fast food patrons
Fast food restaurants are feeling the pinch
• Average number of visits in Feb 2012 was 3.5, compared to
4.1 in Feb 2005
Regardless of income, consumers patronize fast
food restaurants
• The frequency differs only slightly based on income
In an average month, how many times do
you eat at a FAST FOOD restaurant?
<$35,000 $35-74,999 $75,000+
Average # of
visits per month 3.0 3.7 4.0
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, FEB-12
16. Fast Food Frequency by Census Region
In an average month, how many times do Regional preferences
you eat at a FAST FOOD restaurant?
remain constant
Average Times
Per Month The South continues to
Midwest 3.6 dominate in fast food
Northeast 2.8 (i.e. unhealthy) eating
South 3.8
Still, the amount per
West 3.6
month patronized is
less than desired by
the industry
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, FEB-12
17. Preferred Fast Food Restaurant
At what FAST FOOD Restaurant do you
eat at most often?
McDonald’s continues
Men Women to dominate the market
McDonald’s 24.2% 28.1% However:
Wendy’s 7.6% 8.1% • Changing frequency of
Burger King 7.9% 5.1% patronage will place
Subway 7.8% 7.2% challenges on McDonald’s
Taco Bell 5.7% 4.9% and its competitors
Arby’s 1.8% 1.9% • New strategies and brand
images may be required
for the long term
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, FEB-12
18. Top Reasons for Patronizing Fast Food Restaurants
Issues traditionally thought of with a restaurant
(i.e. healthy food, cleanliness) are not as important
Regardless of income, consumers eat at fast food
restaurants because of:
• Price
• Convenience
© 2012, Prosper®
19. Top Reasons for Patronizing Fast Food Restaurants
Which of the following are reasons why you eat there most often?
(Check all that apply)
$35,000-
<$35,000 74,999 $75,000+
Price 50.6% 48.7% 40.1%
Location 43.5% 43.9% 43.3%
Menu Selection 32.3% 34.2% 33.8%
Fast Service 37.0% 38.3% 36.6%
Quality of Food 31.7% 33.9% 34.7%
Value Menu 24.8% 22.6% 16.0%
Cleanliness 15.5% 14.7% 15.2%
Portion Sizes 12.4% 11.8% 10.2%
Healthy Menu Options 11.9% 13.2% 15.8%
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, FEB-12
20. Snapshot
Fast food industry is experiencing changes in sales
volume
Attributes desired are not typical of “eat in”
restaurants
Consumers’ income does not play as big of a role
as it may originally have
© 2012, Prosper®
21. For More About Americans and Their Fast Food
McDonald’s, Taco Bell and Wendy’s Customers
Most Unhappy with Their Health view
Fast food frequenters’ wellbeing tied to personal behavior
rather than drive-thru of choice
The Changing American Consumer
Identifies consumer trends regarding the Fast Food
Industry (Chapter 6: Make Mine Large)
© 2012, Prosper®
22. The Changing American Consumer
Some of the consumer trends identified in The
Changing American Consumer include:
Personal Finance | Chapter 1: America, Land of Plenty?
Home Ownership | Chapter 3: Building the American Castle
Auto Market |Chapter 4: Consumers’ Love Affair with Autos
Online Shopping | Chapter 8: Shopping in Your Boxers, Briefs
or Bathrobe
Every chapter includes top five lessons learned
© 2012, Prosper®
23. The Changing American Consumer
Vital Insights for American consumers’ real beliefs, attitudes and
American Businesses! behavior revealed by unique methods and
analytical software from BIGinsight™
Consumer confidence and purchasing intentions
based on focus, in-depth analysis
A comparison of high-earners and regular
consumers – with surprising results!
Trends to help businesses target their markets
better in the coming decade
Consumers’ attitudes towards: credit, debt
mortgages, buying cars and houses, choosing cell
phones, fast food and store brand goods, big box
retailers, online and TV shopping, social
networking, and politics.
American consumers’ long-term economic hopes
and fears
© 2012, Prosper®
24. The Changing American Consumer
Vital Insights for American consumers’ real beliefs, attitudes and
American Businesses! behavior revealed by unique methods and
For moreanalytical software from BIGinsight™
information
Consumer confidence and purchasing intentions
or to purchase, please visit: analysis
based on focus, in-depth
A comparison of high-earners and regular
consumers – with surprising results!
www.ChangingConsumer.com/info
Trends to help businesses target their markets
better in the coming decade
Kindle edition comingattitudes towards: credit, debt
Consumers’ soon!
mortgages, buying cars and houses, choosing cell
phones, fast food and store brand goods, big box
retailers, online and TV shopping, social
networking, and politics.
American consumers’ long-term economic hopes
and fears
© 2012, Prosper®
25. BIG Consumer
“Fair is Fair” but is Square…well…Square? view
FYU: Shoes view
Blog
Generation Gap: Confidence Defined view
Is Pinterest Your New Obsession? view
It’s Me and Jamie Oliver Against the World view
State Superlatives: Dreamiest Destination, Finest Fare,
Best Bet for a “Rerun” + more view
Generation Gap: Yuck, It’s Tax Season view
UPCOMING: The Award for Best Portrayal of an Ideal
Model Family Goes to… view
© 2012, Prosper®
26. Contact 400 W. Wilson Bridge Road
Suite 200
Worthington, OH 43085
Ph: 614-846-0146
info@BIGinsight.com
Dr. Marianne Bickle
Center for Retailing,
University of South Carolina
bickle@hrsm.sc.edu
Forbes Prosper Now Blog
for complimentary insights, visit:
www.BIGinsight.com
© 2012, Prosper®