Siegel money deck
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This is for a talkI give on the future of money. It's not really meant to make sense by itself. It's for people who have taken the class.
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Siegel money deck
- 1. The Story of Money: Past, Present, and Future - David Siegel
- 2. The Goal of Monetary Policy
- 3. To maximize sustainable economic growth The Goal of Monetary Policy
- 4. What is money? Unit of account Unit of exchange Store of value Money
- 6. Macro-Economics Austrians Commodity money (gold) is “sound money.” Models are meaningless. Get the government out of the money business.
- 7. Macro-Economics Keynesianism Use interest rates and fiscal policy to counteract shocks
- 8. Macro-Economics Monetarism More money in circulation Prices rise Remove money from circulation Prices fall
- 9. 1: Gold 2: Fiat 3: Stickiness 4: CBDC 5: Citizen mining 6: NGDPLT 7: Competition
- 10. 1: Gold 2: Fiat 3: Stickiness 4: CBDC 5: Citizen mining 6: NGDPLT 7: Competition
- 11. World War 1 - most countries abandon the gold standard to finance war by printing paper money. Gold
- 12. Interwar: Many countries adopt a gold-reserve currency. Central banks buy gold. Gold
- 13. Market crash: Austrian, German, British bank runs, crisis of confidence. Output drops. Gold
- 14. Great Depression: gold hoarding; banks fail in US; worldwide deflation. Deflation
- 15. Brittleness
- 16. Brittleness I do believe that if today all the legal obstacles were removed which prevent such an issue of private money under distinct names, in the first instance indeed, as all of you would expect, people would from their own experience be led to rush for the only thing they know and understand, and start using gold. But this very fact would after a while make it very doubtful whether gold was for the purpose of money really a good standard. It would turn out to be a very good investment, for the reason that because of the increased demand for gold the value of gold would go up; but that very fact would make it very unsuitable as money. - F. A. Hayek
- 17. 1: Gold 2: Fiat 3: Stickiness 4: CBDC 5: Citizen mining 6: NGDPLT 7: Competition
- 18. Fiat Bretton Woods: World currencies backed by gold; fixed exchange rates.
- 19. Inflation
- 22. 3% GDP growth Problem: Dual mandate 2% Inflation
- 23. 1: Gold 2: Fiat 3: Stickiness 4: CBDC 5: Citizen mining 6: NGDPLT 7: Competition
- 24. Wage Stickiness The factory story Psychological expectations of rising income
- 25. Price Stickiness Price variability Menu costs Contractual obligations Other psychological factors
- 26. Stickiness A world without stickiness
- 27. No Stickiness A world without stickiness No stickiness = No inflation needed! No elastic money needed!
- 28. How to Think of Stickiness 1. Normal (always sticky) 2. Shock 3. Sticky reactions (not Austrians) 4. Elastic money supply to the rescue!
- 29. 1: Gold 2: Fiat 3: Stickiness 4: CBDC 5: Citizen mining 6: NGDPLT 7: Competition
- 32. 1: Gold 2: Fiat 3: Stickiness 4: CBDC 5: Citizen mining 6: NGDPLT 7: Competition
- 33. Citizen mining
- 34. 1: Gold 2: Fiat 3: Stickiness 4: CBDC 5: Citizen mining 6: NGDPLT 7: Competition
- 35. 3% GDP growth Problem: Dual mandate 2% Inflation
- 36. 3%2% NGDP 5% Solution: NGDP level targeting
- 37. Nominal GDP Quantity Year 1 Price $1 100 GDP = $100
- 39. Nominal GDP Quantity Year 1 Price $1.10 130 Real GDP = $130
- 41. Growth Inflation NGDP target = 5% }3% 2% NGDP level targeting
- 42. }Growth Inflation 4% 1% NGDP target = 5% NGDP level targeting
- 43. }Growth Inflation 1% 4% NGDP target = 5% NGDP level targeting
- 44. Demand shock Immediate injection of money will boost demand NGDP level targeting NGDP
- 45. Too much growth Immediate removal of money will reduce demand NGDP level targeting NGDP
- 46. Growth Inflation NGDP target = 5% }3% 2% NGDP level targeting
- 47. }Growth Inflation 4% 1% NGDP target = 5% NGDP level targeting
- 48. }Growth Inflation 1% 4% NGDP target = 5% NGDP level targeting
- 49. Demand shock Immediate injection of money will boost demand NGDP level targeting NGDP
- 50. Too much growth or supply shock Immediate removal of money will reduce demand NGDP level targeting NGDP
- 52. Real-time NGDP estimate NGDP level targeting 1.
- 53. A mechanism for automatically putting money into circulation and taking money out of circulation according to the NGDP estimate. Central Bank Digital Currency NGDP level targeting Monetary Policy Smart Contracts + 2.
- 54. Fed wallet Bank wallet Bank wallet Bank wallet Bank wallet Bank wallet Bank wallet Bank wallet Central Bank Digital Currency
- 57. 1: Gold 2: Fiat 3: Stickiness 4: CBDC 5: Citizen mining 6: NGDPLT 7: Competition
- 61. We need digital money We can program our monetary policy to be instantly responsive to demand We need many of these We need elastic money Market monetarism
- 62. To maximize sustainable economic growth The Goal of Monetary Policy